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Global Warming Can Be Stopped, World Climate Experts Say
John Roach
for National Geographic News
May 4, 2007
Humans have the means to drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions and avoid the catastrophic
consequences of global warming, a major climate report released today concludes.
But in order to stabilize the climate, the transition from fossil fuels like coal and oil needs to occur within decades,
according to the final report this year from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Pollution rises from the smokestacks of the
coal-fired Navajo Power Plant near Page,
Arizona. A new report from an international
team of scientists and policymakers says that
global warming can be stopped if the use of
fossil fuels like coal and oil is curbed
considerably in the next few decades.
Photograph by J.C. Willett/U.S. Geological
Survey
Delegates representing a network of 2,500 scientists, economists, and policymakers from more than 120 nations
hammered out details of the report at a week-long, closed-door meeting in Bangkok, Thailand.
"What is an extremely powerful message in this report is the need for human society as a whole to start looking at changes
in lifestyle and consumption patterns," Rajendra Pachauri, the panel's chair, said at a press conference today.
The report outlines options communities can take, from using more renewable energy sources like solar and wind to using
efficient light bulbs and planting trees. Even controversial nuclear energy is considered a viable option.
In addition the report says countries must adopt policies that put a price on carbon emissions and provide incentives to
spur the development of energy-efficient technologies.
Widespread embrace of these measures could stabilize the amount of greenhouse gases at 2000 levels, according to the
report.
Failure to adopt these measures, however, could send heat-trapping gases spiraling an additional 90 percent by 2030.
"If we continue to do what we are doing now, we are in deep trouble," Ogunlade Davidson, a co-chair of the working group
that prepared the report, said at the briefing.
Monumental Challenge
This is the third IPCC report released this year.
The first concluded global warming is almost certainly human caused. The second warned of the consequences already occurring and
yet to come such as massive human death and disease, droughts, floods, and storms.
Today's report outlines a series of options to prevent the worst from occurring.
"We have a really monumental challenge on our hands," Vicki Arroyo of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change in
Arlington, Virginia, said in a telephone interview.
Scientists and policymakers have argued over which options to emphasize in the fight against global warming. For
example, many environmental groups are concerned about hazardous waste from nuclear energy if that option is widely
promoted.
But given the immensity of the challenge, Arroyo said, the "luxury" to ignore any of the available options does not exist.
"We really need to tackle this problem from every angle we can," she said.
Daniel Kammen directs the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley. He
said in a telephone interview that the market has yet to show which methods will prevail.
"The critical issue isn't to pick and choose too much but is to say, if the governments are going to listen to this report as
they should, there is actually a large number of technologies that are available to explore and look at," he said.
Some of the technologies are ready to enter the marketplace now, he added, while others will require further research.
Kammen and Arroyo both said that the cost to the global economy of acting now to curb greenhouse gas emissions is far
less than doing nothing.
Economics and Caps
The new report also assesses the likely economic effects of stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere.
The lower the concentration of gases, the lower the impact of global warming but the greater the brunt to global economic
activity, the scientists conclude.
According to the report, stabilization of greenhouse gases at the low end of the range—445 parts per million—would limit
global temperature rise to about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius).
Doing so, however, requires a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 85 percent by the middle of this century.
Achieving this would shave about 0.12 percent off global gross domestic product (GDP) each year, panel co-chair Bert
Metz explained at the briefing.
Stabilization at the high end of the range—710 parts per million—would see a temperature rise as high as 7.2 degrees
Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius) and allow greenhouse gas emissions to increase 10 to 60 percent by 2050.
This scenario would blunt GDP by about 0.06 percent a year.
Officials in China, the U.S., and India fear that the most aggressive cuts would slow economic growth too much and had
reportedly pressed for their nations to be excluded from the report.
The University of California's Kammen said such fears are "false."
Though the U.S. and China are the world's top two consumers of coal, a particularly dirty fossil fuel, the countries also
happen to have ample biofuel and wind resources.
"So the switch-off job is not as hard as many people are portraying," he said.
In a statement released today, the environmental group WWF said the IPCC report shows it is clearly possible to stop
global warming if action is taken now.
"The IPCC has delivered a road map for keeping the planet safe. Now it's the turn of politicians to do more than just pay lip
service," said Hans Verlome, director of the group's climate change program.
"We can stop climate change before it's too late."
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