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W5 POC Workshop Evaluation of climate change projections Co-Convenors: Michael G. Foreman (Canada) and Yasuhiro Yamanaka (Japan) The most recent set of global climate model projections have been submitted to, and are being analyzed by, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the publication of their Fourth Assessment Report in 2007. PICES Working Group 20 was created to perform an evaluation of these projections for the North Pacific and its marginal seas, and to compute products, such as ensemble averages, that would assist PICES groups like the Climate Forcing and Marine Ecosystem Response Task Team (CFAME), in their analysis of climate effects on marine ecosystems, and ecosystem feedbacks to climate. In this workshop, presentations and discussions will focus on ongoing research that addresses the terms of reference of the new working group, and on strategies for future work that is needed to fill the gaps. Presentations related to the direct analysis of global climate projections and the calculation of ensemble averages; to results from higher-resolution regional ocean and coupled atmosphere-ocean models that are forced by, and take their boundary conditions from the IPCC models; and to the development of local and regional data sets (e.g., SST, river flow, sea ice cover) based on either model projections or historical observations, will all be welcome. The development of work/action plans, liaisons with other PICES groups and outside organizations (e.g., CLIVAR), and future activities will also be discussed. Saturday, October 14, 2006 09:00-18:00 09:00-09:15 Introduction by Convenors 09:15-09:45 Curtis Covey (Invited) Managing, using and expanding the IPCC database of climate model output (W5-2774) 09:45-10:00 Hiroyasu Hasumi and Takashi T. Sakamoto Overview of the present state and future projection of North Pacific climate simulated by CCSR/NIES/FRCGC global coupled models (W5-3190) 10:00-10:15 Muyin Wang, James E. Overland and Nicholas A. Bond What will the North Pacific look like in the next 40 years? (W5-3047) 10:15-10:30 Michael G. Foreman Highlights from recent publications describing climate projections for the North Pacific (W53179) 10:30-10:45 Rong-Shuo Cai, Ji-Long Chen and Rong-Hui Huang The response of marine environment in the offshore area of China and its adjacent ocean to recent global climate change (W5-3249) 10:45-11:00 Tea/Coffee Break 11:00-11:30 Michio Kawamiya, Chisato Yoshikawa, Tomomichi Kato and Taroh Matsuno (Invited) Significance of ocean’s response to climate warming in the global carbon cycle (W5-3011) 11:30-12:00 Keith B. Rodgers, Christophe Menkes, Thomas Gorgues, Laurent Bopp and Olivier Aumont (Invited) A modeling study of interannual to decadal variability in Equatorial Pacific biogeochemistry and ecosystems (W5-2906) 12:00-12:15 Sang-Wook Yeh, Cheol-Ho Kim, Young-Gyu Park and HongSik Min Characteristics of Pacific sea surface temperature variability associated with global warming during the 20th century (W5-3003) 237 12:15-12:30 Zhenya Song and Fangli Qiao The establishment of the atmosphere-surface wave-ocean circulation coupled numerical model and its applications (W5-3216) 12:30-12:45 Elena I. Ustinova Evaluation of climatic variability in the Far-Eastern Seas using regional data sets (W5-2874) 12:45-14:00 Lunch 14:00-14:15 William Crawford, Jake Galbraith and Nick Bolingbroke Temperature and salinity along Line-P: Fifty years of observations (W5-3202) 14:15-14:30 Hee-Dong Jeong, In-Seong Han, Ig-Chan Pang, Ki-Tack Seong, Woo-Jin Go, Sang-Woo Kim, Won-Deuk Yoon, Yong-Kyu Choi and Jun-Yong Yang Seasonal long-term variation of temperature in Korean waters (W5-3191) 14:30-14:45 Masao Ishii, Takayuki Tokieda, Shu Saito, Takashi Midorikawa, Shinji Masuda and Akira Nakadate Decadal trend of dissolved oxygen in the North Pacific along 165ºE – A preview (W5-3006) 14:45-15:00 Dong-Young Lee and K.C. Jun Estimation of design wave height through long-term simulation of sea states for the North East Asia regional seas (W5-3064) 15:00-18:00 Discussion (with a Tea/Coffee Break at 15:30-15:50) what CFAME would like from WG20 overall WG plans: who will do what, collaborations, etc. future workshops (inter-sessional, with CFAME?) funding possibilities 238