Download AP Stats Syllabus 2010-2011 Kelvyn Park HS

AP Statistics
Text:
Peck, Olsen & Devore. Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis. Thomson Brooks/Cole,
2008, 3rd edition
Carroll, Carver, Peters & Ricks. AP Statistics – AP Test Prep Series. Pearson, 2007,
2nd edition
Bohan, James F. AP Statistics – Preparing for the Advanced Placement Examination. AMSCO,
2006, 2nd edition
Texas Instruments TI-83 (Plus) Graphing Calculator Guidebook
Course Description:
This course is designed to give students technical proficiency in the collection, analysis and
interpretation of data using statistical measures. This involves being well versed in statistical
concepts that not only carry out these procedures but also can be used to question the validity of
them as well. Statistics is used as a means to describe how events or objects behaved in the past
as well as to predict how they will behave in the future. Students will be asked to take an active
role in this process by designing their own project that will require them to investigate a topic
that is relevant to their personal interests. By controlling the entire investigation from the design
of their experiment and collection of data through the presentation of their results, students will
gain their own understanding of the concepts and techniques of statistics. The textbook and class
lecture will be used to supplement this understanding by providing vocabulary and case studies
that enhance the students’ ability to complete this project. In addition, formal assessments such
as homework and tests will be an essential component to gauge students’ mastery of different
statistical concepts before this project is assigned. Technology will be emphasized on a daily
basis to ensure students receive the most up to date instruction as possible. Through the
academic rigor of this course and the opportunities it provides for exploring relevant topics,
students will gain an appreciation for statistics and its role in describing the real world around us.
Technology
 Students will have access to a class set of TI-83 Plus calculators. If needed, they may
check out a calculator on a nightly basis for home use.
 Students will have access to a computer lab on a weekly basis where they may use
Minitab to analyze data. There will be assignments where it will be required to use this
program.
 The use of Applets on online through the textbook’s website
 I use a TI-83 Plus calculator with an overhead display for class demonstrations.
 I also use an LCD projector to show PowerPoint presentations showcasing many different
statistical concepts.
Course Outline (follows chapters in textbook)
Chapter
Class Days
1.
The Role of Statistics and the Data Analysis Process
2
2.
Collecting Data Sensibly
5
3.
Graphical Methods for Describing Data
5
4.
Numerical Methods for Describing Data
7
5.
Summarizing Bivariate Data
10
6.
Probability
10
Part I – Review and Testing
2
7.
Random Variables and Probability Distributions
10
8.
Sampling Variability and Sampling Distributions
8
9.
Estimation Using a Single Sample
8
10.
Hypothesis Testing Using a Single Sample
12
Part II– Review and Testing
2
First Semester Exam
1
11.
Comparing Two Populations or Treatments
15
12.
The Analysis of Categorical Data and Goodness-of-Fit Tests
15
13.
Simple Linear Regression and Correlation: Inferential Methods
15
Review for AP Exam and Final Exam
10
Part III – AP Exam and Final Exam
3
14.
Multiple Regression Analysis
8
15.
Analysis of Variance
7
Final Project
Course Content
CHAPTER 1: The Role of Statistics and the Data Analysis Process
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Reasons to study statistics
Variability
The Data Analysis Process
ACTIVITY: Estimating Sizes
ACTIVITY: A Meaningful Paragraph
15
CHAPTER 2: Collecting Data Sensibly
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Observation and experimentation
Sampling – stratified, cluster, systematic, convenience
Bias
Experimental design – blocking, direct control, replication
Control groups
Placebos
Designing surveys
Interpreting and communicating the results of statistical analyses
ACTIVITY: Designing a Sampling Plan
ACTIVITY: Video Games and Pain Management
CHAPTER 3: Graphical Methods for Describing Data
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Comparative bar charts and pie charts
Stem-and-Leaf displays
Frequency distributions and histograms
Displaying bivariate numerical data
Interpreting and communicating the results of statistical analyses
Using the TI-83 Plus
ACTIVITY: Locating States
CHAPTER 4: Numerical Methods for Describing Data
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Mean – sample mean and population mean
Median
Minitab ACTIVITY: NBA Salaries
Range
Variance and standard deviation
Quartiles
Boxplots
Empirical rule
Z-Scores
Interpreting and communicating the results of statistical analyses
ACTIVITY: Airline Passenger Weights
CHAPTER 5: Summarizing Bivariate Data
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Correlation – correlation coefficient
Correlation versus causation
Linear regression – fitting a line to bivariate data
Scatterplots – Using the TI-83 Plus
Least squares regression line
Regression to the mean
Extrapolation
Residual plots
Coefficient of determination
Nonlinear relationships and transformations
Power transformations
Using Minitab to compute r and r2
ACTIVITY: Exploring Correlation and Regression Technology Activity
CHAPTER 6: Probability
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Definition of probability, outcomes, and events
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Law of large numbers
Basic properties of probability
Conditional probability
Independent/Dependent events
Replacement
Addition/Multiplication Rule
Law of Total Probability
Estimating probabilities empirically using simulation – Using TI-83 Plus
ACTIVITY: A Crisis for European Sports Fans?
ACTIVITY: The “Hot Hand” in Basketball
CHAPTER 7: Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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Random variables – discrete and continuous
Mean and standard deviation of discrete and continuous variables
Probability distributions – density functions
Binomial and Geometric Distributions
Normal Distributions – finding and interpreting
Using the TI-83 Plus and Minitab
ACTIVITY: Rotten Eggs?
CHAPTER 8: Sampling Variability and Sampling Distributions
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Sampling variability
Sampling distribution – of a sample mean and sample proportion
ACTIVITY: Do Students Who Take the SATs Multiple Times Have an Advantage in College
Admissions?
CHAPTER 9: Estimation Using a Single Sample
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Point estimates - biased/unbiased statistics
Confidence intervals and confidence levels – large and small samples
Standard error
Confidence interval for a population mean
t-distributions – using Minitab
Interpreting and communicating the results of statistical analyses
o Confidence levels and standard error
Applet ACTIVITY: Getting a Feel for Confidence Level
ACTIVITY: Verifying Signatures on a Recall Petition
CHAPTER 10: Hypothesis Testing Using a Single Sample
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Hypothesis and test procedures – null and alternative hypothesis
Type I and Type II errors
Level of significance
Large sample hypothesis tests for a population proportion
p-values – how to interpret and communicate
Steps in a hypothesis-testing analysis
Hypothesis tests for a population mean
Upper/Lower/Two-tailed tests – Using Minitab
Power and probability of Type II error
Minitab ACTIVITY: Comparing t and z Distributions
ACTIVITY: Creating a Test for a Survey
MIDTERM: Chapters 1-10
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Review using previous AP questions
CHAPTER 11: Comparing Two Populations or Treatments
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Inferences concerning the difference between two population or treatment means using independent AND
paired samples
Large sample inferences concerning a difference between two population or treatment proportions
Matched pairs hypothesis test and confidence interval
Internet ACTIVITY: Helium-Filled Footballs?
TI-83 Plus Activities for understanding
CHAPTER 12: The Analysis of Categorical Data and Goodness-of-Fit Tests
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Chi-Square tests for univariate data
One-way frequency tables
Goodness-of-fit statistic and tests
Two-way frequency tables – tests for homogeneity and independence
Marginal/Grand totals
Testing for independence of two categorical variables
How to choose the correct test
TI-83 Plus Activities for understanding
ACTIVITY: Pick a Number, Any Number
ACTIVITY: Color and Perceived Taste
CHAPTER 13: Simple Linear Regression and Correlation: Inferential Methods
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Simple linear regression model – basic assumptions
ACTIVITY: Stand on Your Head to Lose Weight?
Estimating the population regression line
Estimating standard deviation and variance
Properties of the sampling distribution of b
Model utility test for simple linear regression
Checking model adequacy
Small Group ACTIVITY: Are Tall Women from “Big” Families?
REVIEW FOR AP EXAM AND FINAL EXAM
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Review 2010 AP Exam
Practice AP Exam
Final Exam
AP Exam
POST AP EXAM
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Chapter 14: Multiple Regression Analysis
Chapter 15: Single-Factor ANOVA and the F Test
How to Use Minitab and the TI-83 Plus for both Chapter 14 and Chapter 15
Final Project (explained on next page)
Final Project
DESCRIPTION: Students will design and conduct an experiment to investigate the effects of
response bias in surveys. They may choose the topic for their surveys, but they must design their
experiment so that it can answer at least one of the following questions:
 Can the wording of a question create response bias?
 Do the characteristics of the interviewer create response bias?
 Does anonymity change the responses to sensitive questions?
 Does manipulating the answer choices change the response?
The project will be done in pars. Students will turn in one project per pair. A written report
must be typed and included graphs should be done on the computer using Excel.
PROPOSAL: The proposal should
 Describe the topic and state which type of bias is being investigated
 Describe how to obtain subjects (minimum sample size is 50)
 Describe what questions will be and how they will be asked, including how to
incorporate direct control, blocking, and randomization.
WRITTEN REPORT: The written report should include a title in the form of a question and
the following sections:
 Introduction: What form of response bias was investigated? Why was the topic chosen
for the survey?
 Methodology: Describe how the experiment was conducted and justify why the design
was effective. (This section should be very similar to the proposal)
 Results: Present the data in both tables and graphs in such a way that conclusions can be
easily made. Make sure to label the graphs/tables clearly and consistently.
 Conclusions: What conclusions can be drawn from the experiment? Be specific. Were
any problems encountered during the project? What could be done different if the
experiment were to be repeated? What was learned from this project?
POSTER: The poster should completely summarize the project, yet be simple enough to be
understood by any reader. Students should include some pictures of the data collection in
progress.
ORAL PRESENTATION: Both members will participate equally. The poster should be used
as a visual aid. Students should be prepared for questions.