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International Biometric Society SIMULATING GENE SILENCING THROUGH INTERVENTION ANALYSIS V.Djordjilovic1, M.Chiogna1, S.Massa2, C.Romualdi3 1Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padua, of Statistics, Oxford University, 3Department of Biology, University of Padua. 2Department Gene silencing is the most straightforward and reliable experimental technique for studying gene function. It consists of lowering the expression of the targeted gene in controlled, experimental conditions. By observing consequences of such an intervention scientists can verify existing hypothesis and form new ones about the role of that particular gene, both in terms of phenotype and the expression levels of other genes. Although very advantageous, gene silencing has a number of limitations pertaining, in particular, to the technical aspect and cost of the experiment. We propose a method for investigation of potential effects of silencing, before physically performing an experiment. This should allow a more efficient design and organization of the experiment and considerable savings in terms of time and money. The statistical components of this approach comprise a statistical model for the set of genes of interest for the biologists (including the one to be silenced) and data on expression levels of such genes. In the first step we combine available biological knowledge with gene expression data to build a probabilistic directed acyclic graphical model that represents the joint distribution of the set of genes. This model then represents the basis for the so-called intervention analysis, which aims to predict the effect of changing the marginal distribution of the targeted gene on the remaining genes. The issue of quality of gene expression data is crucial, as reliability of results highly depends on good estimation of the model. The statistical approach also requires some preliminary hypothesis to be discussed with biologists, in order to evaluate their validity in the context at hand. . International Biometric Conference, Florence, ITALY, 6 – 11 July 2014