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TESC TEDx on Climate Change – 16 April 2012
Elizabeth Lord, storyteller
Cassandra warned Paris not to take Helen from Sparta, or Troy would fall
David Roberts – the simplicity of CC – Grist.org
Leftist pundist – why doesn’st anyone talk about CC? it’s too complicated?
Why is Earth not a cold dead rock in space? Because of our thin layer of atmosphere,
which traps some heat before it escapes to space.
You can change the chemical composition of atmos and hold heat for longer.
The Earth and climate have always changed. True, but it usually takes 100,000 years.
The last 10,000 years have been unusually stable – within 1 degree. All of human
civilization has developed in this period of relative climate stability.
In the alst 100 years, we’ve been digging out carbon, throwing it into atmos, and changed
climate in the blink of an eye. We’ve observed a 0.8 °C rise sincve the pre-industrial age.
What we see in the next 50 years will be in response to what we’ve done in the last 50
years.
How high does T have to rise before things get really bad? 2 C. The threshold of
danger. This was decided by European policymakers about 10 years ago.
The bad news is – that’s too high to be safe (should be 1.5 C)
and – too low to be possible (we’re almost certainly going to blow past 2C, even if we
quit C emissions now, T will rise at least 3 C)
Climate scientists don’t want to tell you because they don’t want to depress you. I’m just
a blogger, so I can tell you.
What if T rises 4 C? Lots of meeting, paper, equation. I have helpfully paraphrased it as
Hell on earth. Hottest in 30 million years. Sea levels rise at least 3-6 feet. Persistent
drought on at least 40% of inhabited land. Hundreds of millions of refugees. Half of
species extinct. “Incomopatiblewith an organized global community”
Where we are headed: IAEA: on track for 6 C increase by 2100, and climate change
becomes irreversible. No more ice ages.
Positive feedbacks – self-perpetuating warming cycles. Siberian methane – melting sea
ice – unstoppable at 4 C? maybe. 6 C almost certainly. CC will take on a life of its own,
spiral out of control.
2300 T rise of 12 C. Half of Earth’s land too hot to survive on. Avg 170-180 F.
The news is no better in F.
Our present course leads to certain catastrophe.
If we keep doing what we are doing what we are doing we are screwed.
To hope for any stable T ever, we need to stabilize C in 5-10 years and start decreasing C.
Every year of delay adds $500 billiion to the investment (between 2010 – 2030,
according to the IEA – get reference )
Your job is the make the impossible possible, for the rest of your life.
I said simple – not easy.
JAMES HANSEN - Venus’ CO2 atmosphere and SO2 – 900 degrees. JH resigned as
Venus PI because Earth’s GHG were changing before our eyes.
1981: 0.4 C warming, predicted CC and opening of NW passage – all happening
More droughts + downfalls. DC testimony changed by white house
2004-5 talks at Univ. Iowa and AGU – censorship. NY Times got censorship lifted, but
NASA changed mission statement (to understsand and protect the home planet).
ENERGY IMBALANCE is key. Ocean energy content was least understood until 300
Argo floats deployed. Top 200 m of ocean warming significantly.
0.6 W/m2 extra = 20 times greater than energy used by all humanity.
T changes usually lead CO2 rises, in geologic time, due to Milankovitch effect.
More Sun at high lats in summer melts ice sheets, ice albedo effect -> CO2 and CH4
releases -> feedbacks -> interglacial
This still happens- amplifying feedbacks
GRACE – gravity satellite – reveals that Greenland and Antarctica are both losing mass
Sea Level Rise – last time 392 ppm – SL 15 ft higher. Expect at least 1 m this century,
maybe 5 m.
Out of humanity’s control No stable shoreline. Species extinctions.
GW already affecting people. Heat waves in TX/OK, Moscow, Europe – more than 3 SD
outside norm. Can say with confidence that they were caused by GW.
Great plains will experience droughts worse than dust bowl in a few decades.
We can solve CC with a gradually rising C fee (fee-and dividend) – distribute 100% to
citizens. Stimulate economy & jobs. Republicans for Environmental Protection support
it. Make C pay true cost to society.
Instead we subsidize FF $400-500 billion / year. This path, if continued, guarantees that
we will pass tipping points. Famines, economic decline.
Imainge a giant asteroid on a collision course… the longer we wait, the more difficult
and expensive it becomes… If we start next year, it costs 6% per year. We aren’t even
starting.
The science is clear. I need your help to communicate the gravity and urgency…
LARRY GERI – TESC - Paradox of per capita emissions
Public policy and Energy policy – author of a text
Need to cut FF use & C emissions
But freezing current patterns of energy use is unethical and unrealistic
3 billion people in developing world consume little energy, especially secondary energy.
1.3 billion people have no access to electricity
2.5 billion people use biomass for cooking – labor intensive, dangerous fumes
US: 13,000 kW-hr per capita. Africa and india under 600 kW-hr
ENERGY POVERTY – how do we equalize living standards without blowing C budget?
New low-carbon technologies for energy and cooking. Need consistent development
aid.
Most energy subsides for FF, often borrowed to import. 90% + goes to corps that don’t
need it.
What about rapidly growing “emerging countires e.g. China, India? Non-OECD Asia.
World coal use increasing dramatically. Dirty, many GHG – terrible smog, not
sustainable
There is no linear relationship between C consumption and living standards – it levels off
after a certain level.
Challenges – loss aversion – people don’t want to lose mobility (higher gas prices),
autonomy (suburban homes), etc.
Developing countries blame developed countries for emitting lion’s share – We deserve
our chance…
Good & bad news – reality of climate change will be more evident in everyday lives –
extreme weather - will make it easier to motivate action
Renewable energy
Steve Verhey – plant biochemist – Cascadia Carbon Institute – Think Tank
Climate change speaking: pep talk – get going, humans.
Jermy Littell- how CC and natural C variability affect forest systems in the PNW
Expect CC impacts in PNW
What does CC mean for you?
Hansen – what does it mean for the generations that come after you?
Barry Lopez – tips for communicating about CC – confess your bias upfront – I’m
coming from here - subalpine larches near Oval Peak, Lake Chelan Sawtooth wilderness
– many are hundreds of years old, some 1000 yrs old. Found piece of wood dating back
to 831 AD. Tree communicates to us through its rings. What’s changing up there?
(Lots of young trees moving uphill.)
PNW T increased 1.6 F since 1910, 1.0 F since 1960.
Data vary a lot from year to year. Trendlines show that T rise more rapidly more
recently. Short T decreases (due to La Nina).
Future T increases expected to be large relative to annual variability.
Precipitation – we have such a large rnge of precip already in PNW, that changes with
CC are hard to see. Intensification in dry summers and wet winters.
Less spring snowpack (about 44% by 2040s) – earlier snowmelt, more winter precip as
rain, not snow.
Less salmon – warmer air, warmer water (critical threshold near room temp), lower
summer flow. Most W Wa coast no longer favorable for salmon by 2040
Forests – higher T, less water available in summer, more insect outbreaks, less resilience,
3 x more fire
Coasts (storm surges, flooding, acidification)
Agriculture (productivity, pests, food seci=urity)
Maybe more potatoes
Human healthy (heat, disease, well being)
Energy (hydropower production, demand)
Transportation (flooding)
Good news – planning underway to increase resilience, decrease emissions in WA State
WHO should do WHAT?
www.cses.washington.edu/cig
staff.washington.
Part II - Naomi Klein spent a week at sea tracking effects og BP oil spill on
phytoplankton (2010) – watching oil gushing out of a hole in the Earth. Out of control.
Rachel Carson 1962 – control-men who used DDT
CC deniers: What if they are wrong?
Evelyn Fox Keller: What if they are RIGHT? Precautionary Principle – better to err on
the side of caution.
Cost-benefit analysis. What will have the least impact on our GDP
What is the latest possible moment we can wait?
How much hotter can we leet it get?
Assumption that we can control the planet’s thermostat – from economists, not scientists
When will the warming we create be overwhelmed by feedback loops?
Explanations fro recklessness – greed – hubris –
People with the power to detonate the economy or destroy our planet should be thinking
about the possibility of failure
Women have less of a tendency to be overconfident – not constantly told that we are
gifted, chosen, born to rule
The power of story – Master narrative – no matter how much we mess up, there is always
more. Story of settleing of America, of modern capitalism – endless frontiers.
But Earth always had limits, and how we are hitting them. But we are trapped in a
narrative loop, telling same tired stories, with frenzy that verges on camp – Drill, Baby,
Drill vs Sarah Palin’s reality TV show of Alaskan wilderness
Business as Usual is too optimistic – era of extreme energy – drilling in arctic – hydraulic
– strip mining – tar sands - #1 source of imported oil in US
Tar sand harvesting produces 3x as much C as conventionl oil drilling. This is how
civilizations commit suicide – by accelerating when they should step on brakes.
We will be saved at the last minute – by rapture? By technology? Geoengineering?
Escape hatch?
We need new stories with new heroes – that confront recklessness head on, with
precautionary principle, public activism,
BRETT WEINSTEIN – evolutionary perspective on CC – personal responsibility vortex
Natural evolution & the evolution of CC
New enlightenment – Map – where we are – where we’ll end up if we do nothing – where
we should end up – trajectory
CC is a SYMPTOM of a deeper problem – related to BP, economic collapse, Fukushima
Cultural evolution affects markets
Evolution needs – Reproduction – Variation – Heritability – Differential Success
Agents don’t reproduce, but STRATEGIES do. Xerox invented mouse, Apple adapted it
to Graphical User Interface…
Ecosystem is Market? Boundaries are bigger… pie grows – enhanced utility –
Bike makers are now selling expensive, fragile frames that someimtes break at high
speeds
Profit for a few at the expense of the many is bad. Kids get it (cats don’t).
Minimize negative externalities.
Wealth and power are a positive feedback loop – unstable. Terrifying.
Same forces are at work on multiple scales. But individual, by spending more on green
products, actually feeds bada feedback loop.
EXPLAIN??
Need to act as a community.
NEED TO:
Place a firewall between marketplace and regulatory apparatus. Problem is when reward
generates own reward (fox guarding the henhouse)
Every cost needs to show up on balance sheet – including externalities – or returned to
those initiating the action. Harmful economic activity will drop.
Founding fathers might have protected us better and put SUSTAINABILITY at the top of
concerns – 1st amendment.
Yoram Bauman – standup Economist – Carbon taxes
Manikew’s principles of economics
Revenue-neutral C tax – George Will and Al Gore agree on this
G. Will – a good idea shouldn’t be held responsible for who believes in it
Zoltan Grossman – Pacific Rim Indigenous Nations Face the Climate Crisis (OSU
press, June 2012)
First nations are first affected by CC – have been trying to warn us, like Cassandra.
Report to Indigenous Nations 2006
We are not canaries – what can non-native cultures learn about resilience?
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Traditional ecological knowledge – Native science
Indigenous sovereignty – sustainability, community
Community = survival – emergency planning & response – Marae vs. mall
Challenges: Medicine creek treaty tree (1854) in Nisqually delta – toppled in 2006
Cascade Glacier – recession – threats to fisheries – floods scour gravel beds – throwing
off timing of ecosystems, e.g. flies bloom at times when fish can’t take advantage of them
– acidification, hypoxia
Forest fires, damage to medicinal plants, insects… shifting species: Humboldt squid
eating salmon, fish moving north, brown pelicans…
Sea level rise – Hoh and Quileute nations moving to higher grounds
Climate change mitigation & adaptation cartoon: what if it’s a bi hoax and we create a
better world for nothing? Changes we should be making anyway – energy independencepreserve rainforests – sustainability …
Cooperation in land use palnning
Stop waiting for 1 big solution – fund and stitch together thousands of smaller local
solutions – PNW is a leader – ex: Swinomish working with Skagit River Delta local
govts on flood prevention / response
Nisqually agreement with Olympia to move water source from MacAllister springs to
higher elevataion source – not vulnerable to saltware intrusion
Neighbors must rely on each other – not FEMA – in emergencies. Go into emergency
planning.
Renerable energies – Tulalip tribes working with dairy farmers: cattle waste into biogas
plants in Monroe, keep waste out of salmon stream – comanagement with tribes
Native collaborations with white farmers
SECURING WATER RESOURCES – use federal water rights before droughts come
Store glacial melt underground and use for salmon runs?
Secure food sources – traditional food often more resilient
Adapt to new foods? Cultural and economic question
Nisqually watershed – protecting / repairing cultural resources habitat
Educating youthg on sensitivyt to natural world, so they can recognize subtle changes –
unplug from electronics – interview elders - map territories
Indigenous NGOs – seat at international table
Julia – undriving.org
Carolyn Prouty – biologist and veterinarian – TESC – medical ethics @ UW
Effective political action by ordinary citizens – she’s a citizen lobbyist
Ann DeMarcken – Happy Ending
Freitag: Inciting incident – Climax – Resolution
Aristotle – relief from tension at end – Baseline
Fluorescent lightbulbs – recycling – bus instead of car – risk of happy ending - paralysis
REM atonia – keeps us from thrashing in bed, sleep walking
Happy endings are like social atonia – this isn’t real – don’t worry, you’ve done your
part.
But things are not ok. Climate narrative is not following the classic narrative. Not
resolving. We need to make meaning of world – not dependent on resolution.
Day has been saved – hero rides off into the sunset…the west, place of promise, frontier,
endless resources…this west no longer exists.
Life is all middle – all progressive complication – always unresolved.
What if instead we cultivate an appetite for uncertainty? Need willingness, even desire to
abide on quavering cusp between this moment and the next. . Sunset still works –
beginning and end – essential ambiguity.
Styart with the happy ending and put it behind it. This moment is just the beginning.