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International Economics Academic year 2013 - 2014 Doctoral Seminar: Macroeconomics II E527b - Spring - 6 ECTS Course Description PROFESSOR The seminar is for thesis-writing PhD students focusing on macroeconomic issues. It is the second course of a two-course sequence. The course reviews review recent developments in macroeconomics, with emphasis on open economy questions, in order to provide support for the students’ research. The first part of the course consists of lectures. The second part consists of presentations and discussions of papers. The paper are taken from the reading list, with the option to propose a paper not on the list that you find worth presenting. Each presentation lasts 30 minutes and goes over the main points of the paper. The discussion lasts 10 minutes with a critical review of the paper, pointing alternative arguments and avenues for further research. Each student will make one presentation and one discussion (depending on the number of class attendees, the number of presentations can be adjusted). Preferences should be indicated by the end of the third week, and I will then put together the schedule ensuring an even coverage of topics. In addition, each student will write a short review at the end of the course on a topic of her/his choice. The review should be a concise (5-6 pages) discussion of the recent advances in a topic, identifying what has been learnt and what are the remaining challenges. The final grade for the course will be calculated on the basis of the presentations (50%: 35% presentation and 15% discussion), the final review (25%) and class participation (25%). You will need a working knowledge of macroeconomic at the level of Blanchard and Fischer’s Lectures in Macroeconomics, Romer’s Advanced Macroeconomics, Obstfeld and Rogoff’s Foundations in International Economics (OR). Cédric Tille [email protected] Office: MdP-P1-621 Office hourse: Tuesday 16:00-17:15 and Wednesday 16:00-17:15 Course page: http://graduateinstitute.ch/home/study/ courses/courses-20132014/E527b.html Syllabus 1) Policy in open economy stochastic general equilibrium models We present the workhorse general equilibrium models of monetary policy in an open economy. We consider what the aim of policy should be, and review the main theme identified by the literature: the transmission of exchange rate movements to final prices (exchange rate pass-through), the (in)efficiency of exchange rate movements, and the dominant role of some currencies. Chemin Eugène-Rigot 2 | CP 136 - CH-1211 Genève 21 | +41 22 908 57 00 | graduateinstitute.ch MAISON DE LA PAIX Corsetti, Giancarlo, Luca Dedola, and Sylvain Leduc (2010). “Optimal monetary policy in open economies”, in Handbook of Monetary Economics. https://sites.google.com/site/giancarlocorsetti/main/handbook-codele.pdf?attredirects=0 Corsetti, Giancarlo and Paolo Pesenti (2007) “The simple geometry of transmission and stabilization in closed and open economy”, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007 http://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/3000.html Berka, Margin, Michael Devereux and Charles Engel (2013) “Real Exchange Rate Adjustment in and out of the Eurozone”, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 102, pp. 179185. http://www.economics.ubc.ca/files/2013/05/pdf_paper_michael-devereux-real-exchange-rateadjustment.pdf Cespedes, Luis Felipe, Roberto Chang and Andrés Velasco (2012) “Is Inflation Targeting still on Target?” NBER Working Paper No. 18570. http://www.nber.org/papers/w18570 Devereux, Michael, and Charles Engel (2007) “Expenditure Switching Versus Real Exchange Rate Stabilization: Competing Objectives for Exchange Rate Policy”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 54, pp. 2346-2374. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBW-4MNR0N42/2/8b7716dfa78d163fa9b3335f4cdc94fb Goldberg, Linda, and Cédric Tille (2009). “Macroeconomic Interdependence and the International Role of the Dollar”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 56, pp. 990-1003. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBW-4XBR4TM1/2/a2b87e55f94b17c1abee65bb2f1c5704 Obstfeld, Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff (1996) “Foundations of International Macroeconomics” Chapter 10. Senay, Ozge, and Alan Sutherland (2010) “Endogenous Price Flexibility and Optimal Monetary Policy”, mimeo http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~ajs10/papers/senay-sutherland-endog-price-flex2.pdf 2) Financial integration: patterns and impact We briefly review the evidence of international financial integration (the rise of cross-border asset and liabilities). We then review several themes falling under financial integration: the “exhorbitant privilege” debate, the “allocation puzzle” for the direction of capital flows, the costs and benefits of financial integration and financial sector size, the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and their impact, and the need for safe assets. Pattern of integration Lane, Philip, and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti (2007). “A global perspective on external positions”, in R. Clarida ed. G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, University of Chicago Press. http://www.nber.org/papers/w11589 Lane, Philip, and Jay Shambaugh (2007). “Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures”, IIIS Discussion Paper No. 229. http://www.tcd.ie/iiis/pages/publications/discussionpapers/IIISDP229.php - Page 2 - Lane, Philip, and Barbara Pels (2012). “Current Account Imbalances in Europe”, CEPR discussion paper 8058 http://www.cepr.org/pubs/new-dps/dplist.asp?dpno=8958.asp Lane, Philip (2013). “Financial Globalisation and the Crisis”, Open Economies Review, 24(3), 555-580 https://www.bis.org/publ/work397.pdf Exhorbitant priviledge, valuation effects and relevance of the current account Backus, David, Thomas Cooley, and Espen Henriksen (2013). “(Demography and Low Frequency Capital Flows”, NBER working paper 19465. http://www.nber.org/papers/w19465 Blanchard, Olivier, and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti (2011). “(Why) Should Current Account Balances Be Reduced?”, IMF Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/3 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24674.0 Curcuru, Stephanie, Tomas Dvorak, and Francis Warnock (2013). “On Returns Differentials”, NBER working paper 18866. http://www.nber.org/papers/w18866 Curcuru, Stephanie, Tomas Dvorak, and Francis Warnock (2008). “Cross-Border Returns Differentials”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 123, pp.1495–1530 http://faculty.darden.virginia.edu/warnockf/papers/CrossBorderReturnsDifferentials_QJE_final.pdf Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier and Hélène Rey (2013). “External Adjustment, Global Imbalances and Valuation Effects”, NBER working paper 19240. http://www.nber.org/papers/w19240 Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, and Helene Rey (2007b) “International Financial Adjustment”, Journal of Policital Economy 115, pp. 665-703. http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1086/521966 Obstfeld, Maurice (2012). “Does the Current Account still Matter?”, NBER working paper 17877 http://www.nber.org/papers/w17877 The allocation puzzle Alfaro, Laura, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, and Vadym Volosovych (2011) “Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows and Global Imbalances," NBER working paper 17396. http://www.nber.org/papers/w17396 Alfaro, Laura, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, and Vadym Volosovych (2008) “Why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries? An empirical investigation," Review of Economics and Statistics 90(2), 347-368. http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/rest.90.2.347 Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, and Olivier Jeanne (2011) “Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle”, mimeo. http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~pog/academic/allocation_october11.pdf - Page 3 - Is financial integration useful ? Arcand, Jean-Louis, Enrico Berkes, and Ugo Panizza, (2012). " Too Much Finance?" IMF Working Paper WP/12/161 http://graduateinstitute.ch/files/live/sites/iheid/files/sites/international_economics/shared/international_eco nomics/prof%20websites/arcand/Work_in_progress/WP12161.pdf Cecchetti, Stephen, and Enisse Kharroubi (2012). “Reassessing the impact of finance on growth”, BIS working paper 381. http://www.bis.org/publ/work381.pdf Cecchetti, Stephen, and Enisse Kharroubi (2013). “Why does financial sector growth crowd out real economic growth?”, mimeo. https://evbdn.eventbrite.com/s3-s3/eventlogos/67785745/cecchetti.pdf Cihak, Martin, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Erik Feyen, and Ross Levine (2013) “Financial Development in 205 Economies, 1960 to 2010" NBER working paper 18946. http://www.nber.org/papers/w18946 Forbes, Kristin, and Francis Warnock (2011). “Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment”, NBER working paper 17351. http://www.nber.org/papers/17351 Ghosh, Atish, Jun Il Kim, Mahvash Saeed Qureshi, and Juan Zalduendo (2012). “Surges”, IMF working paper 12/22 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp1222.pdf Greenwood, Robin, and David Scharfstein, (2013). "The Growth of Finance." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 27(2): 3-28. http://www.aeaweb.org/atypon.php?return_to=/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.27.2.3 IMF (2013). “The Yin and Yang of Capital Flow Management: Balancing Capital Inflows with Capital Outflows”, World Economic Outlook chapter 4. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/02/pdf/c4.pdf IMF (2012). “Changing Global Financial Structures: Can They Improve Economic Outcomes?”, Global Financial Stability Report chapter 4, http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2012/02/pdf/c4.pdf Rajan, Raju (2005). “Has financial development made the world riskier?” Proceedings of the 2005 Jackson Hole Conference. http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/sympos/2005/pdf/Rajan2005.pdf Rajan, Raju, and Luigi Zingales (1998). “Financial dependence and growth” American Economic Review, 88, pp. 559-86. http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/116849.pdf Why do countries accumulate reserves ? Bacchetta, Philippe, Kenza Benhima, and Yannick Kalantzis (2013). “Optimal Exchange Rate Policy in a Growing Semi-Open Economy”, mimeo. http://www.hec.unil.ch/pbacchetta/PDF/er-china-revision.pdf Bacchetta, Philippe, and Kenza Benhima (2012). “The Demand for Liquid Assets, Corporate Saving, and Global Imbalances”, CEPR discussion paper 9268. http://www.hec.unil.ch/pbacchetta/PDF/LiquidityandCapitalFlows_10apr13.pdf - Page 4 - Benigno, Gianluca, and Luca Fornaro (2012). “Reserve Accumulation, Growth and Financial Crisis”, CEPR discussion paper 9224. http://www.cepr.org/pubs/new-dps/dplist.asp?dpno=9224.asp Bussière, Matthieu, Gong Cheng, Menzie Chinn, and Noëmie Lisack (2014). “For a Few Dollars More: Reserves and Growth in Times of Crises”, NBER working paper 19791. http://www.nber.org/papers/19791 Jeanne, Olivier (2012). “Capital Account Policies and the Real Exchange Rate”, NBER working paper 18404 http://www.nber.org/papers/w18404 Maggiori, Matteo (2012). “Financial Intermediation, International Risk Sharing, and Reserve Currencies”, mimeo. http://people.stern.nyu.edu/mmaggior/Maggiori_FinInt_IntRis_ResCur.pdf Taylor, Alan (2013). “The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China”, CEPR discussion paper 9305. http://www.cepr.org/pubs/new-dps/dplist.asp?dpno=9305.asp Safe assets Caballero, Ricardo, and Emmanuel Farhi (2013). “A Model of the Safe Asset Mechanism (SAM): Safety Traps and Economic Policy”, NBER working paper 18737. http://www.nber.org/papers/18737 Caballero, Ricardo (2010). “The "Other" Imbalance and the Financial Crisis”, NBER working paper 15636. http://www.nber.org/papers/15636 Gorton, Gary, and Guillermo Ordonez (2013). “The Supply and Demand for Safe Assets”, NBER working paper 18732. http://www.nber.org/papers/18732 Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, and Olivier Jeanne (2013). “Global Safe Assets”, BIS Working Paper 399. http://www.bis.org/publ/work399.htm IMF (2012). “Safe Assets: Financial System Cornerstone?”, Global Financial Stability Report chapter 3, http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2012/01/pdf/c3.pdf 3) The 2007-? financial crisis This section presents the main patterns of the complex financial crisis, stressing its international transmission. We then focus on several issues: self-fulfilling panics equilibria, the role of banks and leverage, and the impact of frictions in international financial markets and the possible policy response. We conclude with a focus on the euro area crisis The main features and international transmission Bank for International Settlements Annual reports. http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2013e.htm http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2012e.htm http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2011e.htm - Page 5 - http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2010e.htm Adrian, Tobias, Paolo Colla, and Hyun Song Shin (2012). “Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-9”, NBER working paper 18335. http://www.nber.org/papers/18335 Bernanke, Ben (2013). “The Crisis as a Classic Financial Panic”, remarks at the IMF research conference. http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/seminars/2013/arc/pdf/bb13.pdf Brunnermeier, Markus (2009). “Deciphering the 2007 - 2008 Liquidity and Credit Crunch”, Journal of Economic Perspectives. http://www.princeton.edu/~markus/research/papers/liquidity_credit_crunch.pdf Devereux, Michael, and James Yetman (2010) “Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks”, NBER working paper 16226. http://www.nber.org/papers/16226 Goodhart, Charles, and D.J.Lee (2012). “Adjustment Mechanisms in a Currency Area”, CEPR discussion paper 9226. http://www.cepr.org/pubs/new-dps/dplist.asp?dpno=9226.asp Guerrieri, Luca, Matteo Iacoviello, and Raoul Minetti (2012). "Banks, Sovereign Debt and the International Transmission of Business Cycles", NBER working paper 18303. http://www.nber.org/papers/w18303 Lane, Philip, and Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti (2011). “External Adjustment and the Global Crisis ", IIIS Discussion Paper No. 369, http://www.tcd.ie/iiis/documents/discussion/pdfs/iiisdp369.pdf Milesi-Ferretti, Gian-Maria, and Cédric Tille (2011). “The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis”, Economic Policy 66, pp. 287-342. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2011.00263.x/abstract van Wincoop, Eric (2013). " International Contagion Through Leveraged Financial Institutions “, AEJ Macroeconomics 5(3), 152-189. http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/mac.5.3.152 Multiplicity Bacchetta, Philippe, Cédric Tille, and Eric van Wincoop (2012). "Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics", American Economic Review, vol. 102(7), pp. 3674-3700. http://people.virginia.edu/~ev4n/papers/risk_sunspot_December_12b.pdf Bacchetta, Philippe, and Eric van Wincoop (2013a). "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic “, mimeo. http://www.people.virginia.edu/~ev4n/papers/panic_Nov_4_2013.pdf Bacchetta, Philippe, and Eric van Wincoop (2013b). "Explaining Sudden Spikes in Global Risk", Journal of International Economics, forthcoming. http://www.hec.unil.ch/pbacchetta/PDF/open_risk_panics_final.pdf Bullard, James (2013). "Seven Faces of "The Peril” ", Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 95, No. 6 http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/13/11/bullard.pdf - Page 6 - Perri, Fabrizio, and Vincenzo Quadrini (2011). "International Recession", NBER working paper 17201. http://www.nber.org/papers/w17201 Banking integration and leverage Barth, James, Gerard Caprio, and Ross Levine (2013). “Bank Regulation and Supervision in 180 Countries from 1999 to 2011”, NBER working paper 18733. http://www.nber.org/papers/w18733 Benigno, Pierpaolo, and Federa Romei (2012). “Debt Deleveraging and The Exchange Rate”, NBER working paper 17944. http://www.nber.org/papers/w17944 Brown, Martin, and Ralph De Haas (2012). “Foreign Banks and Foreign Currency Lending in Emerging Europe”, Economic Policy 69, pp. 57-98 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2011.00277.x/full Bruno, Valentina, and Hyun Song Shin (2013b). “Capital Flows, Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity”, NBER working paper 19038. http://www.nber.org/papers/w19038 Bruno, Valentina, and Hyun Song Shin (2013a). “Capital Flows and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy”, NBER working paper 18942. http://www.nber.org/papers/w18942 Cetorelli, Nicolas, and Linda Goldberg (2012). “Follow the Money: Quantifying Domestic Effects of Foreign Bank Shocks in the Great Recession”, NBER working paper 17873. http://www.nber.org/papers/w17873 Cetorelli, Nicolas, and Linda Goldberg (2010). “Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis”, NBER working paper 15974. http://www.nber.org/papers/w15974 Goldberg, Linda (2013). “Banking Globalization, Transmission, and Monetary Policy Autonomy”, NBER working paper 19497. http://www.nber.org/papers/w19497 Jorda, Oscar, Moritz Schularick, and Alan Taylor (2011). “When Credit bites back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises”, NBER working paper 17621. http://www.nber.org/papers/w17621 Taylor, Alan (2012). “The Great Leveraging”, NBER working paper 18290. http://www.nber.org/papers/w18290 Frictions in financial markets, overborrowing and macroprudential policy Benigno, Gianluca, Huigang Chen, Christopher Otrok, Alessandro Rebucci, and Eric Young (2013). “Capital Controls or Real Exchange Rate Policy? A Pecuniary Externality Perspective”, mimeo. http://www.nber.org/confer//2013/IFMs13/Benigno_Chen_Otrok_Rebucci_Young.pdf Bianchi, Javier, and Enrique Mendoza (2013). "Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy", NBER working paper 19704 http://www.nber.org/papers/w19704 - Page 7 - Bianchi, Javier, Emine Boz, and Enrique Mendoza (2013). "Macroprudential Policy in a Fisherian Model of Financial Innovation", IMF Economic Review 60, pp 223-269. http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfer/journal/v60/n2/pdf/imfer20129a.pdf Bianchi, Javier, and Enrique Mendoza (2010). "Overborrowing, Financial Crises and MacroPrudential Taxes", NBER working paper 16091 http://www.nber.org/papers/w16091 Brunnermier, Markus (2012). “Leverage, Business Cycles, and Monetary”, paper presented at the 2012 Jackson Hole Symposium. http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/sympos/2012/mb-ys.pdf Fahri, Emmanuel, and Ivan Werning (2013). "A Theory of Macroprudential Policies in the Presence of Nominal Rigidities," NBER working paper 19313 http://www.nber.org/papers/w19313 Korinek, Anton, and Jonathan Kreamer (2013). "The Redistributive Effects of Financial Deregulation," NBER working paper 19572 http://www.nber.org/papers/w19572 Korinek, Anton, and Olivier Jeanne (2012). "Macroprudential Regulation Versus Mopping Up After the Crash," NBER working paper 18675 http://www.nber.org/papers/w18675 Korinek, Anton (2010). "Regulating capital flows to emerging markets: An externality view," mimeo. http://www.korinek.com/ Lorenzoni, Guido (2008). "Inefficient Credit Booms," Review of Economic Studies, 75(3), pp 809833. http://econ-www.mit.edu/files/4138 Mendoza, Enrique, and Marco Terrones (2012). "An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise", NBER working paper 18379 http://www.nber.org/papers/w18379 Mendoza, Enrique (2010). "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises and Leverage," American Economic Review. http://econweb.umd.edu/~mendoza/pp/CompletePaperRevforDistribution.pdf Reinhart, Carmen and Vincent Reinhart (2008). "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present", NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics http://www.nber.org/papers/w14321 The euro crisis Estrada, Angel, Jordi Gali, and David Lopez-Salido (2013). "Patterns of Convergence and Divergence in the Euro Area", NBER working paper 19561 http://www.nber.org/papers/w19561 Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus, Luis Garicano, and Tano Santos (2013). "Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Euro Zone", Journal of Economic Perspectives 27(3), pp 145-166. http://www.aeaweb.org/atypon.php?return_to=/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.27.3.145 - Page 8 - Huo, Zhen, and José Victor Rios-Rull (2013). "Paradox of Thrift Recessions", NBER working paper 19443 http://www.nber.org/papers/w19443 Krugman, Paul (2012). "Revenge of the Optimum Currency Area", remarks at the NBER macro annual conference. http://www.economics.cornell.edu/arazin/Paul%20Krugman2012.pdf Lane, Philip (2012 " The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives. http://www.aeaweb.org/atypon.php?return_to=/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.26.3.49 O’Rourke, Kevin, and Alan Taylor (2013). "Cross of Euros", Journal of Economic Perspectives 27(3), pp 167-192. http://www.aeaweb.org/atypon.php?return_to=/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.27.3.167 Schmitt-Grohé, Stéphanie, and Martin Uribe (2013). "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and the Case for Temporary Inflation in the Eurozone", Journal of Economic Perspectives 27(3), pp 193212. http://www.aeaweb.org/atypon.php?return_to=/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.27.3.193 Shambaugh, Jay (2012). “The Euro’s Three Crises”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, pp. 157-231. http://www.brookings.edu/about/projects/bpea/papers/2012/euros-three-crises-shambaugh 4) Issues in international macroeconomic policy This section reviews several topics that are at the core of current research in international macroeconomics. We first consider the impact of financial frictions and the financial accelerator, and the distributional consequences of policy. We then turn to an assessment of policy, with the impact of fiscal stimulus and fiscal consolidation, the use and effectiveness unorthodox monetary policy measures, and the recent debate on the proper role of central banks. We conclude with a succinct review of financial reform and its challenges. Financial frictions and the financial accelerator Brunnermeier, Markus, Thomas Eisenbach, and Yuliy Sannikov (2012). “Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey “, NBER working paper 18102 http://www.nber.org/papers/w18102 Cespedes, Luis Felipe, Roberto Chang, and Andres Velasco (2012). "Financial Intermediation, Exchange Rates, and Unconventional Policy in an Open Economy", NBER working paper 18431 http://www.nber.org/papers/w18431 Dedola, Luca, and Giovanni Lombardo (2012). “Financial frictions, financial integration and the international propagation of shocks”, Economic Policy 27(70), pp. 319-359.. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2012.00286.x/pdf Fornari, Fabio, and Livio Stracca (2012). “What does a financial shock do? First international evidence”, Economic Policy 71, pp. 407-445. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2011.00277.x/full Jermann, Urban, and Vincenzo Quadrini (2009). “Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks“, NBER working paper 15338 http://www.nber.org/papers/w15338 - Page 9 - Kollmann, Robert, Zeno Enders, and Gernot Müller (2011). "Global Banking and International Business Cycles," European Economic Review 55, pp. 407-426 http://robertkollmann.com/KOLLMANN_PUBL_ENDERS_MUELLER_Global_Bank_EER_2011.pdf Distribution and inequality Alvaredo, Facundo, Anthony B. Atkinson, Thomas Piketty, and Emmanuel Saez (2013). "The Top 1 Percent in International and Historical Perspective", Journal of Economic Perspectives 27(3), pp 3-20. http://www.aeaweb.org/atypon.php?return_to=/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.27.3.3 Brunnermeier, Markus, and Yuliy Sannikov (2012). "Redistributive Monetary Policy", Jackson Hole Symposium. http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/sympos/2012/Brun_Sannikov_final.pdf Karabarbounis, Loukas, and Brent Neiman (2013). "The Global Decline of the Labor Share", NBER working paper 19136 http://www.nber.org/papers/w19136 Piketty, Thomas, and Emmanuel Saez (2013). "Top Incomes and the Great Recession: Recent Evolutions and Policy Implications", IMF Economic Review 61, pp. 465-478. http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfer/journal/v61/n3/full/imfer201314a.html Prasad, Eswar (2013). "Distributional Effects of Macroeconomic Policy Choices in Emerging Market Economies", NBER working paper 19668 http://www.nber.org/papers/w19668 Fiscal policy Alesina, Alberto, Carlo Favero, and Francesco Giavazzi (2012), “The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidation”, NBER Working Paper 18336. http://www.nber.org/papers/18336 Auerbach, Alan, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko (2010), “Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy,” NBER Working Paper 16311. http://www.nber.org/papers/w16311 Baldacci, Emanuele, Sanjeev Gupta, and Carlos Mulas-Granados (2012), “Reassessing the fiscal mix for successful debt reduction”, Economic Policy 71, pp. 365–406 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2012.00295.x/full Blanchard, Olivier, and Roberto Perotti (2002), “An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), pp.1329-1368. http://www.nber.org/papers/w7269.pdf Corsetti Giancarlo, André Meier, and Gernot Mueller (2012), “What determines government spending multipliers?”, Economic Policy 72, pp. 521–565 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2012.00295.x/full Corsetti Giancarlo, Keith Kuester, Andre Meier and Gernot Mueller (2011), “Sovereign risk and the effects of fiscal retrenchment in deep recessions”, mimeo. http://www.bundesbank.de/download/vfz/konferenzen/20110519_20_hamburg/11_corsetti.pdf - Page 10 - Erceg, Christopher, and Jesper Lindé (2012). “Fiscal Consolidation in an Open Economy”, CEPR discussion paper 8955. http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP8955.asp Fahri, Emmanuel, and Ivan Werning (2012), “Fiscal Multipliers: Liquidity Traps and Currency Unions”, NBER Working Paper 18381. http://www.nber.org/papers/18381 International Monetary Fund (2012). “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: 100 Years of Dealing with Public Debt Overhangs” World Economic Outlook. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/pdf/c3.pdf International Monetary Fund (2010). “Will It Hurt? Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation,” World Economic Outlook. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/pdf/c3.pdf Mody, Ashoka, and Damiano Sandri (2012), “The eurozone crisis: how banks and sovereigns came to be joined at the hip”, Economic Policy 70, pp. 199–230 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2012.00281.x/full Wyplosz, Charles (2012), “Fiscal Rules: Theoretical Issues and Historical Experiences”, NBER Working Paper 17884. http://www.nber.org/papers/17884 Unorthodox monetary policy Bernanke, Ben, Vincent Reinhart, and Brian Sack (2004). “Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2004-2, pp. 1– 78. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2004/200448/200448pap.pdf Curdia, Vasco, and Michael Woodford (2011). “The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetary policy”, Journal of Monetary Economics 58(1), pp. 54-79. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393210001224 Fratzscher, Marcel, Marco Lo Duca, and Roland Straub (2013). “On the international spillovers of US quantitative easing”, ECB working paper 1557. http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1557.pdf Gagnon, Joseph, Matthew Raskin, Julia Remache, and Brian Sack (2011). “The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Large-Scale Asset Purchases.” International Journal of Central Banking 7 (1, March), pp. 3–43. http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb11q1a1.pdf Gertler, Mark, and Peter Karadi (2013). “QE 1 vs. 2 vs. 3. . . : A Framework for Analyzing LargeScale Asset Purchases as a Monetary Policy Tool”, International journal of Central Banking 9(1), pp. 5-53. http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb13q0a1.htm Giannone, Domenico, Michele Lenza, Huw Pill and Lucrezia Reichlin (2012). “The ECB and the Interbank Market”, CEPR discussion paper 8844. http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP8844.asp - Page 11 - Glick, Reuven, and Sylvain Leduc (2011). “Central Bank Announcements of Asset Purchases and the Impact on Global Financial and Commodity Markets”, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco working paper 2011-30. http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2011/wp11-30bk.pdf Hancock, Diana, and Wayne Passmore (2011). “Did the Federal Reserve’s MBS Purchase Program Lower Mortgage Rates?” Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-01. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2011/201101/201101pap.pdf International Monetary Fund (2013a). “Global Impact and Challenges of Unconventional Monetary Policies” Policy Paper. http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/090313.pdf International Monetary Fund (2013b). “Unconventional Monetary Policies - Recent Experiences and Prospects” Policy Paper. http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/041813a.pdf Joyce, Michael, Ana Lasaosa, Ibrahim Stevens, and Matthew Tong (2011). “The Financial Market Impact of Quantitative Easing in the United Kingdom.” International Journal of Central Banking 7(3, September), pp. 113–161. http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb11q3a5.pdf Krishnamurthy, Arvind (2013). “The Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy”, paper presented at the 2013 Jackson Hole Symposium. http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/sympos/2013/2013Krishnamurthy.pdf Qianying Chen, Andrew Filardo, Dong He, and Feng Zhu (2012). “International spillovers of central bank balance sheet policies”, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 220-264. http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap66.pdf Swanson, Eric, and John Williams (2013). "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates" Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 12-02. http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2012/wp12-02bk.pdf Swanson, Eric (2011). "Let's Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 42(1), pages 151207. http://www.ericswanson.us/papers/lta.pdf Woodford, Michael (2012). “Accommodation at the Zero Lower Bound”, paper presented at the 2012 Jackson Hole Symposium. http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/sympos/2012/mw.pdf?sm=jh083112-4 What should central banks do? Bank for International Settlements (2013). “Navigating the Great Recession: what role for monetary policy?”, annual conference. https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap74.htm https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap74.pdf Bernanke, Ben (2013). "A Century of US Central Banking: Goals, Frameworks, Accountability", Journal of Economic Perspectives 27(4), pp 3-16. http://www.aeaweb.org/atypon.php?return_to=/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.27.3.3 - Page 12 - Borio, Claudio (2014). “Monetary policy and financial stability: what role in prevention and recovery?”, BIS working paper 440. https://www.bis.org/publ/work440.htm Eichengreen Barry (2013). "Does the Federal Reserve Care about the Rest of the World?", Journal of Economic Perspectives 27(4), pp 87-104. http://www.aeaweb.org/atypon.php?return_to=/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.27.4.87 Gali, Jordi (2013), “Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles”, NBER Working Paper 18806. http://www.nber.org/papers/18806 Gorton, Gary, and Andrew Metrick (2013). "The Federal Reserve and Panic Prevention: The Roles of Financial Regulation and Lender of Last Resort", Journal of Economic Perspectives 27(4), pp 45-64. http://www.aeaweb.org/atypon.php?return_to=/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.27.4.45 International Monetary Fund (2013). “Do Central Bank Policies Since the Crisis Carry Risks to Financial Stability?” Global Financial Stability Report. http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2013/01/pdf/c3.pdf Kuttner, Kenneth, and Ilhyock Shim (2013). “Can non-interest rate policies stabilise housing markets? Evidence from a panel of 57 economies”, BIS working paper 433. https://www.bis.org/publ/work433.htm Rey, Hélène (2013). “Cross-Border Capital Flows”, paper presented at the 2013 Jackson Hole Symposium. http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/sympos/2013/2013Rey.pdf - Page 13 -