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VOCABULARY MATCHING Chapter 2: POPULATION Task: 1) Match the terms below with their definitions. 2) Underline any definitions, key takeaways, or notes you consider important. 3) Highlight all examples provided with a colored highlighter. 4) Give yourself a score in the space provided above based on how much time and effort you put into studying these terms, their definitions, and the explanations and examples provided. Key Issue 1: Where is the World’s Population Distributed? ○ agricultural density ○ arithmetic density ○ demography ○ ecumene ○ overpopulation ○ physiological density ○ (population) agglomerations (i.e. concentrations) Key Issue 2: Where Has the World’s Population Increased? ○ child mortality rate (CMR) ○ crude birth rate (CBR) ○ crude death rate (CDR) ○ doubling time ○ infant mortality rate (IMR) ○ life expectancy ○ natural increase rate (NIR) ○ replacement fertility ○ total fertility rate (TFR) COVER UP TERM WHEN STUDYING! Term Definition Key Issue 3: Why is Population Increasing at Different Rates in Different Countries? ○ age distribution ○ census ○ cohort ○ demographic momentum ○ Demographic Transition Model (DTM) ○ dependency ratio ○ population pyramid ○ sex ratio ○ zero population growth (ZPG) Key Issue 4: Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem? ○ carrying capacity ○ Cornucopians/Esther Boserup ○ Epidemiological Transition Model ○ J-curve ○ Neo-Malthusians ○ S-curve ○ Thomas Malthus Other: ○ demographic equation Key Takeaways/ Notes/Examples Key Issue 1: Where is the World’s Population Distributed? 1. demography 2. (population) agglomerations (i.e. concentrations) The study of population characteristics. • Demographers study not only the distribution of humans overall, but also the distribution of population cohorts (subgroupings) based on age, gender, occupation, wealth, health, etc. • Demography is central to human geography because we have to have an idea of where people are before we can study the other aspect of culture (religion, politics, language, ethnicity, industry, urban and rural settlements, etc.) that we will look at in this course. Where population is clustered on the earth’s surface. • • • • • 2/3 of humans live in four regions: East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Europe. 2/3 of humans live within 500 km of an ocean. Most humans live in northern hemisphere mid latitudes (between 15°-55° N). Other population clusters: NE United States, West Africa. In 2005, percentage of people living in cities passed 50% and will reach 70% by 2050. 3. arithmetic density Total number of people divided by total land area, a statistic used to compare the distribution of population in different countries or regions. • A large population does not mean high arithmetic density. (China has the highest total population but by no means the highest population density because it is so large.) • A high density does not mean a country is necessarily poor (Netherlands (rich): 400 people /km2, Mali (poor): 10 people/km2. • Sample arithmetic densities: Canada, Australia: 3 people/km2, U.S.: 33 people/km2, Bangladesh: 1,200 people/km2, Singapore: 1,700 people/km2. 4. agricultural density The ratio of the number of farmers to the total amount of land suitable for agriculture. In effect, this is a measure of the efficiency and level of modernization of a country or region’s agricultural sector. • A country with a high agricultural density has a lot of farmers working that country’s farmland meaning that it may lack the modern farming machinery or techniques to farm efficiently. • Conversely, a country with a low agricultural density only needs a few farmers to farm a large amount of farmland efficiently, probably because those farmers have access to modern farm machinery and techniques. 5. physiological density The number of people per unit of arable land (land suitable for agriculture). • Egypt is a classic example of a country with a low arithmetic density (total population divided by total land area) but a high physiological density (total population divided by total arable land). What does this tell you about Egypt? 6. ecumene The portion of the earth’s surface occupied by permanent human settlement. • Opposite: non-ecumene (areas not settled by humans because they are too dry, wet, cold, or mountainous for agriculture.) • Ecumene has increased over time. • Only about 10% of earth’s land surface is arable. • Nevertheless, even today 3/4ths of world’s population lives on only 16% of earth’s land area (5% of total area including oceans). That is, human population is highly clustered. 7. overpopulation The condition resulting when the number of people in an area exceeds the capacity of the environment to support life at a decent standard of living (i.e. carrying capacity of an area). • Note: Population density does not reliably predict overpopulation by this definition. • There are places on the earth’s surface with high population density that are not overpopulated because the population is well supported (e.g. pretty much all of Europe!) • Conversely, there are places with low population densities that are nevertheless said to be overpopulated because the environment in those places cannot support even a small population (e.g. Mali and other Saharan countries.) Key Issue 2: Where Has the World’s Population Increased? 8. crude birth rate (CBR) The number of births per year per 1,000 people in a region. • A country with a CBR of 20 means 20 babies are born per 1,000 people per year. • A high CBR would be above 30 (Sub-Saharan Africa)(Highest in 2014: Niger, 50) • A low CBR would be below 10 (developed countries)(Lowest in 2014: Japan, 8) 9. crude death rate (CDR) The number of deaths per year per 1,000 people in a region. • • • • A country with a CDR of 5 means out of every 1,000 people, five of them die in a given year. A high CDR would be above 10 (highest in 2014: Sierra Leone, 17 but also Russia: 13!) A low CDR would be below 5 (lowest in 2014: United Arab Emirates: 1) Note CDRs are highest in countries with large elderly populations (they’re the ones who die more!) • NIR is computed by first converting the CBR (Crude Birth Rate) and CDR (Crude Death Rate) to percentages and then subtracting CDR from CBR. • Example: A country has a CBR of 20 and a CDR of 5. Expressed as percentages these are 2 and 0.5. This country’s NIR would be 2 minus 0.5 = 1.5%. • Directly (mathematically) related to doubling time. (see Rule of 70 above). • World NIR reached its peak in 1963 at 2.2% and has been decreasing ever since. Note: This does NOT mean world population is declining; it just means it is increasing at an ever slower rate. • NIR is over 2.0% in Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa but is negative in Europe. 10. natural increase rate (NIR) The percentage by which a population grows in a year. The “natural” refers to the fact that the NIR excludes migration. 11. doubling time The number of years needed to double the size of a population, assuming a constant NIR (Natural Increase Rate) 12. infant mortality rate (IMR) The number of deaths of infants under 1 year old per 1,000 births per year. • Sub-Saharan countries in Africa have IMRs around 60 and up. • Developed countries have IMRs around 5 and below. 13. child mortality rate (CMR) The number of deaths of children below the age of 5 per 1,000 births per year. • High value 2013 (bad): 161 in Sierra Leone (this means about 161 of every thousand children under 5 die every year in Sierra Leone.) • Low value 2013 (good): 2 (Luxemburg, Iceland) • Rule of 70: Seventy divided by NIR will yield doubling time. Example: A country with a Natural Increase Rate of 2% will double in population in 35 years. • Sub-Saharan TFRs are 4 and above (High value in 2013: Niger 7.6! Niger will likely triple in population by 2050! (18m to 55m). • European and some Asian TFRs are below 2.0 (below replacement level). (Low value in 2013: South Korea, 1.2) • TFR is perhaps the most important population statistic for predicting future population growth. Specifically, if TFRs decline rapidly in LDCs (Less Developed Countries), especially Sub-Saharan Africa, global population will peak and level off much earlier and at a lower peak than if TFRs in LDCs do not decrease rapidly. 14. total fertility rate (TFR) The average number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (usually defined as 15-49). 15. replacement fertility The TFR (Total Fertility Rate) at which each woman in a population gives birth to just enough children to maintain a steady population in that region. 16. life expectancy The average number of years an individual can be expected to live in a given region. • Replacement fertility rate is about 2.1 (Two babies to replace the couple that created that child + about .1 to make up for the female babies that do not reach childbearing years. • Sub-Saharan Africa: Life expectancy is about 50 years (in 2013) • Developed countries: Life expectancy around 80 years (in 2013) • Low value (2013): Sierra Leone (46 years) / High value (2013): Japan (84 years) Key Issue 3: Why is Population Increasing at Different Rates in Different Countries? 17. census A complete enumeration (counting!) of a population. 18. cohort Any subset of a population studied by geographers that share some common temporal (time based) characteristic (usually age range). • Examples: Baby Boomers, Generation X, Millennials, class of 2018, truck drivers between 30 and 40 who smoke, people married in the 1970’s, etc 19. Demographic Transition Model (DTM) A model which attempts to describe and predict how the population of a country changes over time as it transitions from an agrarian to an industrial and then to a post industrial society. It posits that all countries go through a series of four demographic stages from the high birth and death rates of pre-industrial subsistence societies to the low birth and death rates in post-industrial societies. • Please know four stages of DTM in terms of their CBR, CDR, NIR, and population size (see Model Review Packet) AND causes of transition between stages I and II and between stages II and III. • Key takeaway #1: The transition from Stage I to Stage II is based largely on the diffusion of TECHNOLOGY. The transition from Stage II to Stage III is largely based on CULTURAL factors, particularly the status of women. Therefore many LDCs are stuck in the stage II (the "demographic trap"). • Key takeaway #2: European countries took centuries to move through the four stages of the DTM while many LDCs are being asked (unfairly?) to move through the stages in a matter of decades to reduce strain on resources. A bar graph representing the distribution of population by age and sex. • Please know distinctive shapes of population pyramids for countries in these stages of DTM: • Stage I and II countries: wide base, narrow top, • Stage II countries: base narrowing, sides not so concave • Stage III and IV countries: increasingly column-like shape 21. sex ratio The number of males per 100 females in the population • Sex ratio in MDCs: about 95:100 (95 men per 100 women) b/c men die earlier. • Sex ratio in LDCs: about 105:100 (105 men per 100 women) b/c of deaths during childbirth. • Sex ratios are readily apparent on population pyramids. 22. age distribution The proportion of individuals of different ages within a population. • Easily visible on population pyramids (countries with young populations will have characteristic wide base on population pyramid). • Areas with relatively younger population: India, Africa, Latin America. • Regions with relatively older populations: Europe, U.S., Japan. 20. population pyramid 23. dependency ratio The number of dependents (people too young or old to work) compared to working people in a population. • Too young to work usually defined as under 14. Too old to work usually defined as over 65. • LDCs have dependency ratios of around 1:1 (one dependent for each working people) putting huge strain on the working population to support the non working population (mostly young people in need of health care, education, and jobs). • MDCs have dependency rations around 1:2 (one dependent for every two working people, meaning there are relatively more working people to support the non-working population (mostly elderly). • Dependency ratios are also apparent on population pyramids. 24. zero population growth (ZPG) A decline of the total fertility rate to the point where the natural increase rate equals zero (CBR=CDR) and population is stable. • Stage IV DTM countries generally have ZPG. • The fertility rate needed to achieve ZPG is around 2.1, although a country with in migration would need a even lower fertility rate to achieve ZPG. • Discounting migration, Europe and U.S. have achieved ZPG (i.e. U.S. population only rising because of migration). 25. demographic momentum The mathematical reality by which countries with large populations of young people are “locked into” future population growth even after the country has lowered fertility rates birth rates simply because the country has such a large number of young women entering their childbearing years. • Difficult concept. Think of it this way: there are two ways by which population will increase: either relatively few women all have many kids (high fertility rates) or an extremely large population of women each have only one or two kids.. Demographic momentum describes this latter scenario. • Demographic momentum is a big problems in LDCs because it means there is a delay of about fifty years between the time a country gets its fertility rate under control (women have fewer children) and the time that country reaches ZPG. Key Issue 4: Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem? 26. J-curve The typical shape of a graph showing exponential population growth globally or in a region (aka “hockey stick” curve). 27. S-Curve The typical shape of a graph showing population rising rapidly but then leveling off as a region (or the whole world) reaches ZPG (Zero Population Growth). 28. carrying capacity The number of people an area can support on a sustained basis given the prevailing technology. 29. Thomas Malthus English economist (1766-1834) who argued that population would always grow faster than available food supplies, because population increases exponentially (1,2,4,8,16…) while food resources increase arithmetically (1,2,3,4,5…). 30. Neo-Malthusians Modern geographers who argue that population growth is indeed (as Malthus predicted) outstripping the availability of not only food but also clean air, clean water, farmland, and energy, especially in LDCs. • Opposing argument to Cornucopians. • Is this an instance of possibilism or environmental determinism? 31. Cornucopians / Esther Boserup Modern geographers who believe that growing populations stimulate economic growth, new ideas, and technology which together can and will meet the larger demands on resources of the growing population with increasingly efficient use of available resources. • Opposing argument to Neo-Malthusians. • Their “proofs”: 1. Europe (High population but no overpopulation problem!) and 2. The Green Revolution (food production keeping up with population through technology). • Is this an instance of possibilism or environmental determinism? 32. Epidemiological Transition Model A companion model to the Demographic Transition Model, a model that identifies specific causes of death within each of the stages of the DTM. • Shape of population growth predicted by DTM • A place is said to be overpopulated not when there are a lot of people there (high density) but when the number of people (however few or many) exceed the carrying capacity of the land given local technology. • Stage I: Infectious and parasitic diseases were primary causes of death. • Stage 2: Stage of receding pandemics. Pandemics receded due to improved sanitation, medicine, and nutrition diseases. • Stage 3: Stage of degenerative diseases. As people live longer and vaccinations virtually eliminate infectious disease, people now die of chronic diseases associated with aging (heart disease, cancer, etc.) • Stage 4: Stage of delayed degenerative diseases. New medicines and technologies extend the lives of those with degenerative diseases. • Stage 5 (proposed for future): Stage of reemergence of infectious diseases. Infectious diseases reemerge as they adapt and become immune to the antibiotics that have been used to control them. Other 33. demographic equation NOTES: The formula that calculates population change in a region which takes into account migration. It is: births minus deaths plus (or minus) net migration.