Download Political Science 217a/853a, US National Elections

Political Science 217a/853a, U.S. National Elections
Fall 2010, Wednesdays 1:30-3:20
David R. Mayhew, office hours 3-5 Monday and by appointment; at 87 Trumbull St., Rm. 20
telephone: 432-5237
email: [email protected]
website: http://pantheon.yale.edu/~dmayhew/
This is a seminar with two aims: a) To present and discuss scholarship on many, albeit certainly not all,
aspects of U.S. national elections. b) To accommodate research papers on U.S. national elections.
The course’s readings offer basic, standard analyses of U.S. elections that have been generated by social
scientists. Both the readings and the discussions will tilt toward political history, simple statistics, and
proper nouns. There will be a shortage of abstraction and statistical complexity. There will be ample
discussion of the 2008 and 2010 elections.
Each student will be asked to complete a brief reading assignment each week, occasionally take the lead in
discussing a required assignment, occasionally read and be prepared to report on a suggested reading item,
be prepared to participate in class discussions, and write a research paper of 20 to 30 pages. Papers with a
historical focus are welcome. Interesting this fall might be papers on past midterm elections.
There are three deadlines connected with writing the research paper:
By October 4: Discuss your paper project with the instructor.
October 13: Submit a 3-page outline in which you present your question, suggest the arguments
you will develop, and anchor your project in appropriate sources.
December 10: Submit your finished paper to the instructor. Send a copy by email and deposit a
copy in either of the instructor’s two Yale mailboxes (at Rosenkrantz Hall, or ISPS)
All required readings, including part of an online book, should be available through ORBIS online search
devices or as handouts. Reading assignments are coded as Required or Suggested. The required readings
are short. The syllabus is long because it serves as a source of suggested readings as well as a general
bibliography on much-written about topics. Some unpublished manuscripts are available from the
instructor. Many papers presented at recent conferences of the American Political Science Association, as
well as at other political science conferences, are available online at www.apsanet.org. Click “annual
meeting papers.” One assignment consists of three chapters from a book, R. Johnston et al., The 2000
Presidential Election and the Foundations of Party Politics. This book is available online and is also being
stocked as a paperback in the Yale Bookstore.
This syllabus proceeds through plans for thirteen weeks of class meetings, but afterwards also lists
bibliographies for several topics not directly covered during the thirteen weeks: the 2000 presidential
election, the 2004 presidential election, the 2006 midterm election, wars and elections, presidential
nominations, the media, and divided control of the government.
September 1 – ORGANIZATION MEETING
September 8 – STATES AND DISTRICTS
Required: Gerald C. Wright et al., “Measuring State Partisanship and Ideology with Survey Data,”
Journal of Politics 47 (1985), 469-89
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Suggested: Robert S. Erikson, Gerald C. Wright & John P. McIver, Statehouse Democracy: Public
Opinion and Policy in the American States (1993). This may update the 1985 piece but it doesn’t extend
past 2000 (see below).
Gerald C. Wright et al., “Stability and Change in State Electorates, Carter through Clinton,” 2001 MWPSA
paper. An update, sort of, of the 1985 article.
Robert S. Erikson, Gerald C. Wright & John P. McIver, “Dataset of the CBS/New York Times National
Polls: Ideology, Party Identification, 1976-2003, http://php.indiana.edu/~wright1/cbs7603_pct.zip This is
an update of the data.
Terence P. Jeffrey, “Conservatives Now Outnumber Liberals in All 50 States, Says Gallup Poll,”
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/print/52602 Dated 8/17/09.
Phillip J. Ardoin, “Measuring Constituency Ideology in U.S. House Districts: A Top-Down Simulation
Approach,” Journal of Politics 65 (2003), 1165-89. This new index does for the district level what Wright
et al. did for the state level.
Matthew S. Levendusky, Jeremy G. Pope & Simon D. Jackman, “Measuring District-Level Partisanship
with Implications for the Analysis of U.S. Elections,” Journal of Politics 70:3 (July 2008), 736-53
Jeffrey M. Stonecash, Class and Party in American Politics (2000). How did the GOP surge of 1994
change the demography of the universe of U.S. House districts?
Gregory L. Giroux, “A Line in the Suburban Sand,” Congressional Quarterly Weekly, June 27, 2005, pp.
1714-38. Has lots of specifics about House districts, plus maps.
Michael Barone & Richard E. Cohen, The Almanac of American Politics 2010 (2009). The particulars of
state and district politics.
September 15 – PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: HISTORY
Required: David R. Mayhew, “Incumbency Advantage in Presidential Elections: The Historical
Record,” Political Science Quarterly 123:2 (Summer 2008), 201-28
Suggested: V.O. Key, Jr., “A Theory of Critical Elections,” Journal of Politics 17 (1955), 3-18
Walter Dean Burnham, pp. 287-304 of “Party Systems and the Political Process,” ch. 10 in William N.
Chambers and Burnham (eds.), The American Party Systems (1967)
Walter Dean Burnham, Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics (1970), chs. 1-2, 7
James L. Sundquist, Dynamics of the Party System (1973 and 1983)
Walter Dean Burnham, “The System of 1896: An Analysis,” ch. 5 in Kleppner, The Evolution of American
Electoral Systems (1981)
Walter Dean Burnham, “Periodization Schemes and ‘Party Systems’: The ‘System of 1896’ as a Case in
Point,” Social Science History 10 (1986), 263-313
Charles Sellers, “The Equilibrium Cycle in the Two-Party System,” Public Opinion Quarterly 29 (1965),
16-38
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Paul Allen Beck, “A Socialization Theory of Partisan Realignment,” ch. 10 in Richard G. Niemi and
associates, The Politics of Future Citizens (1974)
Paul Allen Beck, “The Electoral Cycle and Patterns of American Politics,” British Journal of Political
Science 9 (1979), 129-56
David W. Brady, Critical Realignments and Congressional Policy Making (1988)
William H. Flanigan & Nancy H. Zingale, “The Measurement of Electoral Change,” Political Methodology,
summer 1974, 49-81
Jerome M. Clubb, William H. Flanigan & Nancy H. Zingale, Partisan Realignment: Voters, Parties, and
Government in American History (1980)
Walter D. Burnham, Jerome M. Clubb & William H. Flanigan, “Partisan Realignment: A Systemic
Perspective,” ch. 1 in Joel H. Silbey, Allan G. Bogue & William H. Flanigan (eds.), The History of
American Electoral Behavior (1978)
Paul Kleppner, “Critical Realignments and Electoral Systems,” ch. 1 in Kleppner et al., The Evolution of
American Electoral Systems (1981)
Richard L. McCormick, “The Realignment Synthesis in American History,” Journal of Interdisciplinary
History 13 (1982), 85-105
Allan J. Lichtman, “Critical Election Theory and the Reality of American Presidential Elections, 19161940,” American Historical Review 81 (1976), 323+
Alan J. Lichtman, “The End of Realignment Theory: Toward a New Research Program for American
Political History,” Historical Methods 15 (1982), 170-88
Bernard Sternsher, “The Emergence of the New Deal Party System: A Problem in Historical Analysis of
Voter Behavior,” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 6 (1975), 127+
Bernard Sternsher, “The New Deal Party System: A Reappraisal,” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 15
(1984), 53+
Helmut Norpoth, “To Change or Not to Change Horses: Voting in Wartime,” 2010 MWPSA conference
paper
Byron E. Shafer (ed.), The End of Realignment? Interpreting American Electoral Eras (1991)
Robert S. Erikson & Kent L. Tedin, “The 1928-1936 Partisan Realignment: The Case for the Conversion
Hypothesis,” American Political Science Review (75 (1981), 951+
Christopher H. Achen & Larry M. Bartels, “Partisan Hearts and Gall Bladders: Retrospection and
Realignment in the Wake of the Great Depression,” 2005 MWPSA paper
David Resnick & Norman C. Thomas, “Cycling Through American History,” Polity 23 (1990), 1-21
Peter F. Nardulli, “The Concept of a Critical Realignment, Electoral Behavior, and Political Change,”
American Political Science Review 89 (1995), 10-22
Jeffrey M. Stonecash & Everita Silina, “The 1896 Realignment: A Reassessment,” American Politics
Research 33 (2005), 3-32.
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Herbert F. Weisberg, “Partisanship and Incumbency in Presidential Elections,” Political Behavior 24
(2002), 339-60
David Samuels, “Presidentialism and Accountability for the Economy in Comparative Perspective,”
American Political Science Review 98 (2004), 425-36
Daniel J. Gans, “Persistence of Party Success in American Presidential Elections,” Journal of
Interdisciplinary history 16 (1986), 221-37.
Larry M. Bartels, “Electoral Continuity and Change, 1868-1996,” Electoral Studies 17 (1998), 301-26
David R. Mayhew, “Electoral Realignments,” Annual Review of Political Science 3 (2000), 449-74
David R. Mayhew, Electoral Realignments: A Critique of an American Genre (2002)
James E. Campbell, “Party Systems and Realignments in the United States, 1868-2004,” Social Science
History 30:3 (fall 2006), 359-386
Helmut Norpoth & Jerrold G. Rusk, “Electoral Myth and Reality: Realignments in American Politics,”
Electoral Studies 26 (2007), 392-303
Samuel Merrill III, Bernard Grofman & Thomas L. Brunell, “Cycles in American National Politics, 18542006: Statistical Evidence and an Explanatory Model,” American Political Science Review 102:1
(February 2008), 1-17
Walter Dean Burnham, “Electoral Coalitions in Perspective and Their Policy Consequences,” 2008 APSA
paper
James E. Campbell, “The 2008 Presidential Election in the Realigned Party System,” 2008 APSA paper
Christopher H. Achen & Larry M. Bartels, “Retrospection and Realignment in the New Deal Party System,”
2008 APSA paper
Byron E. Shafer & Richard G.C. Johnston, “Social Structure and Policy Preference in the Transformation of
the American Party System, 1952-2004,” 2008 APSA paper
September 22 – PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: COALITIONS AND CLEAVAGES
Required: Robert S. Erikson, Thomas D. Lancaster & David W. Romero, “Group Components of
the Presidential Vote,” Journal of Politics 51 (1989), 337-46
Suggested: Robert Axelrod, “Where the Votes Come From: An Analysis of Electoral Coalitions, 19521968,” American Political Science Review 66 (1972), 11+. Updated thru 1984 at APSR 80 (1986), 281.
An analysis similar to the “group components” one above.
Robert A. Jackson & Thomas M. Carsey, “Group Components of U.S. Presidential Voting Across the
States,” Political Behavior 21 (1999), 123-51
Harold W. Stanley & Richard G. Niemi, “Partisanship, Party Coalitions, and Group Support, 1952-2004,”
Presidential Studies Quarterly 36:2 (June 2006), 172-88
Michael Hout et al., “The Democratic Class Struggle in the United States, 1948-1992,” American
Sociological Review 60 (1995), 805-28. Shows a growing cleavage between professionals and business
people, among other things.
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Mark D. Brewer & Jeffrey M. Stonecash, Split: Class and Cultural Divides in American Politics (2007)
Jeffrey M. Stonecash, “The Income Gap,” PS 39:3 (July 2006), 461-65
Larry M. Bartels, “What’s the Matter with What’s the Matter with Kansas?” Quarterly Journal of Political
Science 1 (2006), 201-26
Clem Brooks & Jeff Manza, “The Social and Ideological Bases of Middle-Class Political Realignment in
the United States, 1972-1992,” American Sociological Review 62 (1997), 191-208
Clem Brooks & Jeff Manza, “Class Politics and Political Change in the United States, 1952-1992,” Social
Forces 76 (1997), 379-408
Clem Brooks & David Brady, “Income, Economic Voting, and Long-Term Political Change in the U.S.,
1952-1996,” Social Forces 77 (1999), 1339-75
Clem Brooks, “Civil Rights Liberalism and the Suppression of a Republican Political Realignment in the
United States, 1972-1996,” American Sociological Review 65 (2000), 483-505
Jeff Manza & Clem Brooks, “The Gender Gap in U.S. Presidential Elections: When? Why? Implications?”
American Journal of Sociology 103 (1998), 1235-66
Kristin Kanthak & Barbara Norrander, “The Enduring Gender Gap,” ch. 7 in H.F. Weisberg & R. G. Niemi
(eds.), Models of Voting in Presidential Elections (2004)
Karen M. Kaufmann & John R. Petrocik, “The Changing Politics of American Men: Understanding the
Sources of the Gender Gap,” American Journal of Political Science 43 (1999), 864-87
Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Suzanna De Boef & Tse-Min Lin, “The Dynamics of the Partisan Gender
Gap,” American Political Science Review 98 (2004), 515-28
Karen M. Kaufmann, “The Gender Gap [in 2004]”, PS: Political Science and Politics 39:3 (July 2006),
447-53
Barry C. Burden, “An Alternative Account of the 2004 Presidential Election,” The Forum, online at
http://www.bepress.com/forum, 2:4 (2004). Whites and married women did it.
Herbert F. Weisberg, “The Demographics of a New Voting Gap: Marital Differences in American Voting,”
Public Opinion Quarterly 51 (1987), 336
Mark Hertzog, The Lavender Vote: Lesbians, Gay Men, and Bisexuals in American Electoral Politics
(1996)
Richard Sauerzopf & Todd Swanstrom, “The Urban Electorate in Presidential Elections, 1920-1996,”
Urban Affairs Review 35 (1999), 72-91
Seth C. McKee & Daron R. Shaw, “Suburban Voting in Presidential Elections,” Presidential Studies
Quarterly 33 (2003), 125-44
Robert E. Lang & Thomas W. Sanchez, “The New Metro Politics: Interpreting Recent Presidential
Elections Using a County-Based Regional Typology,” Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, 2006.
Available online. Core, inner suburbs, mature suburbs, emerging suburbs, exurbs. Counties listed.
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James M. Gimpel & Kimberly A. Karnes, “The Urban-Rural Gap [in 2004],” PS: Political Science and
Politics 39:3 (July 2006), 467-72
Seth C. McKee, “Rural Voters in Presidential Elections, 1992-2004,” The Forum (Berkeley online journal)
5:2 (2007), article 2
David E. Campbell, “The Young and the Realigning: A Test of the Socialization Theory of Realignment,”
Public Opinion Quarterly 66 (2002), 209-34
Seth C McKee, “Rural Voters and the Polarization of American Presidential Elections,” PS: Political
Science and Politics 41:1 (January 2008), 101-08
James G. Gimpel et al., “Spatial Dimensions of Arab American Voter Mobilization after September 11,”
Political Geography 26 (2007), 330-51. Has good references.
Gregory Allen Smith et al., “Understanding the Politics of American Muslims,” 2008 APSA paper
Neal Riemer, “Jewish Voters and Presidential Elections: The Record, the Reasons, the Future,” 1993
APSA conference paper
L. Sandy Maisel & Ira N. Forman (eds.), Jews in American Politics: Essays (2004). Has excellent material
on many subjects.
Abdulkader Sinno & Brian L. Lawson, “Correlates of Bias toward Minority Candidates in U.S. Elections,”
2008 APSA paper
Barry A. Kosmin & Ariela Keysar, “Party Political Preferences of U.S. Hispanics: The Varying Impact of
Religion, Social Class, and Demographic Factors,” Ethnic and Racial Studies 18 (1995), 336-47
Louis De Sipio, Counting on the Latino Vote: Latinos as a New Electorate (1996)
Tony Affigne, “Latino Politics in the United States: An Introduction,” PS: Political Science and Politics
33 (2000), 523-27. Has good data on the U.S. Hispanic population.
Rodolfo O. de la Garza & Marissa A. Abrajano, “Get Me to the Polls on Time: Mobilization and Latino
Turnout in the 2000 Election,” 2002 APSA ms. (apparently). Has Table 3 breakdown of Latino national
origins by state (although not their voting patterns).
M. Michael Alvarez & Lisa Garcia Bedollo, “The Foundations of Latino Voter Partisanship: Evidence
from the 2000 Election,” Journal of Politics 65 (2003), 31-49
James A. Barnes & Richard E. Cohen, “The Manana Vote,” National Journal, June 5, 2004, pp. 1760-67
Sylvia Manzano & Barbara Norrander, “Latino State of America: State Measures of Latino Ideology and
Partisanship,” 2006 MWPSA paper. Like Wright & Erikson. First-class indexes.
Nathan J. Kelly & Jana Morgan Kelly, “Religion and Latino Partisanship in the United States,” Political
Research Quarterly 58 (2005), 87-95
Rodolfo de la Garza, “Latino Politics,” Annual Review of Political Science 7 (2004), 91-123
Marisa A. Abrajano, R. Michael Alvarez & Jonathan Nagler, “The Hispanic Vote in the 2004 Presidential
Election: Insecurity and Moral Concerns,” Journal of Politics 70:2 (April 2008), 368-82
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David L. Leal et al., “Latinos, Immigration, and the 2006 Midterm Elections,” PS: Political Science and
Politics 41:2 (April 2008), 309-17
Kate Kenski & Russell Tisinger, “Hispanic Voters in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential General Elections,”
Presidential Studies Quarterly 36:2 (June 2006), 189-202
Lisa Garcia Bedolla & Jessica L. Lavariega Monforti, “National Origin, Ideology, and Party: A Look at
Cubans and Cuban Americans,” 2008 APSA paper
Matt A. Barreto et al., “’Should They Dance with the One Who Brung ‘Em? Latinos and the 2008
Presidential Election,” PS: Political Science and Politics 41:4 (October 2008), 753-64
Rene Bautista et al., “Hispanic Voting Patterns in the 2008 Presidential Election: Evidence from National
Election Pool Exit Polls,” 2010 MWPSA conference paper
Thomas P. Kim, The Racial Logic of Politics: Asian Americans and Party Competition (2007). This
dwells on the 1996 election, but it may have uses beyond that.
Shyam K. Sriram, “’The Costs of Choosing’: Divided Loyalties, Nativism, and the Problem of AsianAmerican Party Acquisition,” 2006 MWPSA paper
Katherine Tate, From Protest to Politics: The New Black Voters in American Elections (1994 ed.), ch. 9
(about 1992)
Philip J. Ardoin & Ronald J. Vogel, “African Americans in the Republican Party: Taking the Road Less
Traveled,” American Review of Politics 27 (summer 2006), 93-113. What predicts voting for the GOP? C
Christopher Stout, “The ‘Bradley Effect’ 25 Years Later: An Analysis of the Accuracy of Preelection Polls
for Minority Candidates,” 2008 APSA paper
Daniel J. Hopkins, “No More Wilder Effect, Never a Whitman Effect: When and Why Polls Mislead about
Black and Female Candidates,” Journal of Politics 71:3 (July 2009), 769-81
Geoff Peterson, “Native American Turnout in the 1990 and 1992 Elections,” American Indian Quarterly 21
(1997), 321-31
Brian Steenland et al., “The Measure of American Religion: Toward Improving the State of the Art,”
Social Forces 79 (2001), 291-318
David C. Leege, “The Decomposition of the Religious Vote: A Comparison of White, Non-Hispanic
Catholics with other Ethnoreligious Groups, 1960-1992,” 1993 APSA conference paper
Mark J. Rozell, Clyde Wilcox & John C. Green, “Religious Constituencies and Support for the Christian
Right in the 1990s,” Social Science Quarterly 79 (1998), 815-27
Clyde Wilcox, Matthew DeBell & Lee Sigelman, “The Second Coming of the New Christian Right:
Patterns of Popular Support in 1984 and 1996,” Social Science Quarterly 80 (1999), 181-92
John C. Green et al., “Faith in the Vote: Religiosity and the [2000] Presidential Election,” Public
Perspective 2001, pp. 33-35
James L. Guth et al., “Religious Mobilization in the 2004 Presidential Election,” 2005 APSA paper
Laura R. Olson & John C. Green, “The Religion Gap,” PS: Political Science and Politics 39:3 (July
2006), 455-59
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Howard J. Gold & Gina E. Russell, “The Rising Influence of Evangelicalism in American Political
Behavior, 1980-2004,” Social Science Journal 44 (2007), 554-62
John C. Green, The Faith Factor: How Religion Influences American Elections (2007)
Gary Langer & Jon Cohen, “Voters and Values in the 2004 Election,” Public Opinion Quarterly 69:5
(2005), 744-59
Mark D. Brewer, “Catholic Electoral Behavior in the United States: An Examination,” SPSA conference
paper, 1999
Mark M. Gray et al., “Camelot Only Comes But Once? John F. Kerry and the Catholic Vote,” Presidential
Studies Quarterly 36:2 (June 2006), 203-22
Monica McDermott, “Voting for Catholic Candidates: The Evolution of a Stereotype,” Social Science
Quarterly 88:4 (December 2007), 953-69
Philip Converse, “Stability and Change in 1960: A Reinstating Election,” American Political Science
Review 55 (1961), 269-80
Peter L. Francia et al., “Limousine Liberals and Corporate Conservatives: The Financial Constituencies of
the Democratic and Republican Parties,” Social Science Quarterly 86 (December 2005), 761-78
Larry M. Bartels, “Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952-1996,” American Journal of Political Science
44 (2000), 35-50
Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson & James B. Stimson, “Macropartisanship,” American Political
Science Review 83 (1989), 1125-42. Time series showing and explaining changes in party identification.
Harold W. Stanley & Richard G. Niemi, “Partisanship, Party Coalitions, and Group Support, 1952-2000,”
ch. 7 in H. F. Weisbert & C. Wilcox (eds.), Models of Voting in Presidential Elections (2004)
Alan I. Abramowitz & Kyle L. Saunders, “Ideological Realignment in the U.S. Electorate,” Journal of
Politics 60 (1998), 634-52
Greg D. Adams, “Abortion: Evidence of an Issue Evolution,” American Journal of Political Science 41
(1997), 718-37
Alan Abramowitz & Kyle Saunders, “Why Can’t We All Just Get Along? The Reality of a Polarized
America,” The Forum, online at http://www.bepress.com/forum, 3 (2005), 1-22
Philip A. Klinkner & Ann Hapanowicz, “Red and Blue Déjà vu: Measuring Political Polarization in the
2004 Election,” The Forum, online at http://www.bepress.com/forum, 3:2 (2005)
Matt Levendusky, “Sorting in the U.S. Mass Electorate,” MWPSA conference paper, April 2005
Gary Miller & Norman Schofield, “The Transformation of the Republican and Democratic Party Coalitions
in the U.S.,” Perspectives on Politics 6:3 (September 2008), 433-50
Stephen Ansolabehere, Jonathan Rodden, and James M. Snyder, Jr., “The Strength of Issues: Using
Multiple Measures to Gauge Preference Stability, Ideological Constraint, and Issue Voting,” American
Political Science Review 1102:2 (May 2008), 215-32
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David B. Holian & Charles Prysby, “Who Votes on the Basis of Candidate’s Personality? Vote Choice in
U.S. Presidential Elections, 1992-2004,” 2008 APSA paper
Joseph Bafumi & Robert Y. Shapiro, “A New Partisan Voter,” Journal of Politics 71:1 (January 2009), 124
On third parties:
Steven J. Rosenstone et al., Third Parties in America (2nd ed., 1996)
Paul R. Abramson et al., “Third-Party and Independent Candidates in American Politics: Wallace,
Anderson, and Perot,” Political Science Quarterly 110:3 (1995), 349-67. Includes a discussion of whether
the election victors were Condorcet winners.
Paul R. Abramson et al., “Challenges to the American Two-Party System: Evidence from the 1968, 1980,
1992, and 1996 Presidential Elections,” Political Research Quarterly 53 (2000), 495-522. Do these thirdparty candidacies index a general discontent with the two-party system?
Walter J. Stone & Ronald B. Rapoport, “It’s Perot Stupid! The Legacy of the 1992 Perot Movement in the
Major-Party System, 1992-2000,” PS: Political Science and Politics 34 (March 2001), 49-58. A 2005
book followed from this piece.
Barry C. Burden, “Minor Parties in the 2000 Presidential Election,” ch. 11 in H. F. Weisberg & R. G.
Niemi (eds.), Models of Voting in Presidential Elections (2004)
Barry C. Burden, “Minor Parties and Strategic Voting in Recent U.S. Presidential Elections,” Electoral
Studies 24 (2005), 603-18
Christopher S. P. Magee, “Third-Party Candidates and the 2000 Presidential Election,” Social Science
Quarterly 84 (2003), 574-95
Neal Allen & Brian J. Fox, “The Roots of Third Party Voting: The 2000 Nader Campaign in Historical
Perspective,” Party Politics 11:5 (2005), 623-37.
Howard J. Gold, “Explaining Third-party Success in Gubernatorial Elections: The Cases of Alaska,
Connecticut, Maine and Minnesota,” Social Science Journal 42 (2005), 523-40
Conor M. Dowling & Steve B. Lem, “Explaining Major and Third Party Candidates Entry in U.S.
Gubernatorial Elections, 1980-2005,” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 9:1 (Spring 2009), 1-23.
Shigeo Hirano & James M. Snyder, Jr., “The Decline of Third-Party Voting in the United States,” Journal
of Politics 69:1 (February 2007), 1-16
Kevin A. Pirch, “Incumbent Failure and Partisan Strength: An Explanation of the Emergence and Support
of Major Third Party Presidential Candidates in the United States,” American Review of Politics 28
(Summer 2007), 97-117
Barry C. Burden, “Ballot Regulations and Multiparty Politics in the States,” PS: Political Science and
Politics 40:4 (October 2007), 669-73
September 29 – PRESIDENTIAL ELECITONS: MODELING
Required: Larry M. Bartels & John Zaller, “Presidential Vote Models: A Recount,” PS: Political
Science and Politics 34 (March 2001), 9-20
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Suggested: Robert S. Erikson, Joseph Bafumi & Bret Wilson, “Was the 2000 Election Predictable?” PS:
Political Science and Politics 34 (December 2001), 815-19
Morris Fiorina, Samuel Abrams & Jeremy Pope, “The 2000 US Presidential Election: Can Retrospective
Voting Be Saved?” British Journal of Political Science 33 (2003), 163-87
Robert S. Erikson, “National Election Studies and Macro Analysis,” Electoral Studies 21
(2002), 269-81. Update of components analysis.
Roy C. Fair, “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President,” Review of Economics and Statistics
60: 159-73; plus update in Political Behavior 10 (1988), 168-79, and in Political Behavior 18 (1996), 11940
Ray C.Fair, “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2004 Update,” 2007 APSA paper
Ray C. Fair, “Presidential and Congressional Vote-Shares Equations,” American Journal of Political
Science 53:1 (January 2009), 55-72
Gerald Kramer, “Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896-1964,” American Political
Science Review 65 (1971), 131-43. The original style-setting work on modeling elections.
Robert S. Erikson, “Economic Conditions and the Presidential Vote,” American Political Science Review
83 (1989), 567-73. A good, simple, accessible two-variable model.
Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson & James A. Stimson, “Peasants or Bankers: The American
Electorate and the U.S. Economy,” American Political Science Review 86 (1992), 597-611. Do voters look
backwards or forwards?
Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen & James A. Stimson, “Bankers or Peasants Revisited: Economic
Expectations and Presidential Approval,” Electoral Studies 19 (2000), 295-312
Brad T. Gomez & J. Matthew Wilson, “Political Sophistication and Economic Voting in the American
Electorate: A Theory of Heterogeneous Attribution,” American Journal of Political Science 45 (2001),
899-914
Thomas J. Rudolph, “Who’s Responsible for the Economy? The Formation and Consequences of
Responsibility Attributions,” American Journal of Political Science 47 (2003), 698-713
Donald R. Kinder & D. Roderick Kiewiet, “Economic Discontent and Political Behavior: The Role of
Personal Grievances and Collective Economic Judgments in Congressional Voting,” American Journal of
Political Science 23 (1979), 495-527. The style-setting work using survey data.
Koleman S. Strumpf & John R. Philippe, Jr., “Estimating Presidential Elections: The Importance of State
Fixed Effects and the Role of National versus Local Information,” Economics and Politics 11 (1999), 33-50
James E. Campbell, “Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States,” American Journal of Political
Science 36 (1992), 386-407
James E. Campbell et al., “Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States, 1948-2004: An Update,
Revision, and Extension of a State-Level Presidential Forecasting Model,” Journal of Political Marketing 5
(2006), 33-57
Jeffrey E. Cohen, “State-Level Public Opinion Polls as Predictors of Presidential Election Results,”
American Politics Quarterly 26 (1998), 139-59
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Michael S. Lewis-Beck & Tom W. Rice, Forecasting Elections (1992), ch. 4
Randall J. Jones, Jr., Who Will Be in the White House? Predicting Presidential Elections (2002)
Richard Nadeau & Michael S. Lewis-Beck, “National Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections,”
Journal of Politics 63 (2001), 159-81. Based on individual voter sizeups of the economy.
“Forecasting the 1996 Elections,” special edition of American Politics Quarterly 24 (October 1996)
Stephen E. Haynes & Joe A. Stone, “Why Did Economic Models Falsely Predict a Bush Landslide in
1992?” Contemporary Economic Policy 12 (1994), 123-30
Jay P. Greene, “Forewarned Before Forecast: Presidential Election Forecasting Models and the 1992
Election,” PS: Political Science and Politics 26 (March 1993), 17-21
Dennis M. Simon et al., “The President, Referendum Voting, and Subnational Elections in the United
States,” American Political Science Review 85 (1991), 1177-92
Robert Forsythe et al., “Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market,” American Economic Review
82 (1991), 1142-61
Robert S. Erikson & Christopher Wlezien, “Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election
Predictors?” Public Opinion Quarterly 72:2 (Summer 2008), 190-215
Steve Knack, “Does Rain Help the Republicans? Theory and Evidence on Turnout and the Vote,” Public
Choice 79 (1994), 187-209
Brad T. Gomez et al., “The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S.
Presidential Elections,” Journal of Politics 69:3 (August 2007), 649-63. A 2.5% GOP gain for each inch of
rainfall. Covers 14 elections.
Tim Fackler & Tse-min Lin, “Political Corruption and Presidential Elections, 1929-1992,” Journal of
Politics 57 (1995), 971-93
Martin P. Wattenberg, “The Role of Vice Presidential Ratings in Presidential Voting Behavior,” American
Politics Quarterly 41 (1995), 504-14
Robert G. Kaiser, “To Researchers, Election Is All Over: Ignoring Polls, Forecasters Say Gore Will Win
Big,” Washington Post, 5/25/00, online
Adam Clymer, “And the Winner Is Gore, If They Got the Math Right,” New York Times, 9/4/00, p. A11
Katherine M. Reynolds, “Panel of Academic Forecasters Still Says Gore Will Beat Bush,” Bloomberg
News, 11/4/00, online
Robert G. Kaiser, “We’re Divided, And We’d Better Get Used to It,” Washington Post, 11/12/00, p. B1.
Interviews with the discredited academic forecasters just after the election.
Robert G. Kaiser, “Political Scientists Offer Mea Culpas for Predicting Gore Win,” Washington Post,
2/9/01, p. A10
James E. Campbell, “Taking Stock of the Forecasts of the 2000 Presidential Election,” American Politics
Research 29 (2001), 275-78
11
Christopher Wlezien, “On Forecasting the Presidential Vote,” PS: Political Science and Politics 34
(March 2001), 25-31. Gore vs. Bush.
James E. Campbell, “The Referendum that Didn’t Happen: The Forecasts of the 2000 Presidential
Election,” PS: Political Science and Politics 34 (March 2001), 33-38.
Thomas M. Holbrook, “Forecasting with Mixed Economic Signals: A Cautionary Tale,” PS: Political
Science and Politics 34 (March 2001), 39-44. Gore vs. Bush.
Helmut Norpoth, “Bush v. Gore: The Recount of Economic Voting,” ch. 3 in H. F. Weisberg & R. G.
Niemi (eds.), Models of Voting in Presidential Elections (2004)
James E. Campbell (ed.), “Assessments of the 2004 Presidential Election Forecasts,” PS: Political Science
and Politics 38 (2005), 23-40. This has brief retrospective assessments by several leading authors.
Charles L. Prysby & David B. Holian, “Who Votes on the Basis of the Candidate’s Personality? Vote
Choice in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1992-2004,” 2008 APSA paper
Steven F. Freeman, “An Examination of Exit Poll Accuracy and Discrepancies with Official Counts in U.S.
Elections,” 2008 APSA paper
James E. Campbell et al., “Symposium: Forecasting the 2008 National Elections,” PS: Political Science
and Politics 41:4 (October 2008), 679-732. A series of pieces.
James E. Campbell et al., “Forecasting Recap: Assessments of the 2008 National Election Forecasts,” PS:
Political Science and Politics 42:1 (January 2009), 19-25.
Suzanna Linn, Jonathan Moody & Stephanie Asper, “Explaining the Horse Race of 2008,” PS: Political
Science and Politics 42:3 (July 2009), 459-65
Robert S. Erikson, “The American Voter and the Economy, 2008,” PS: Political Science and Politics 42:3
(July 2009), 467-71
Gary C. Jacobson, “The Economy and Presidential Approval During the Clinton and G.W. Bush
Administrations,” 2010 MWPSA conference paper
Frederick Boehmke, “Economic Voting in the American States,” 2010 MWPSA conference paper
October 6 – THE 2008 ELECTION
Required: David A. Hopkins, “The 2008 Election and the Political Geography of the New
Democratic Majority,” Polity 41:3 (July 2009), 368-87
Suggested: Kate Kenski, Bruce W. Hardy & Kathleen Hall Jamieson, The Obama Victory: How Media,
Money, and Message Shaped the 2008 Election (2010)
Gary C. Jacobson, “The 2008 Presidential and Congressional Elections: Anti-Bush Referendum and
Prospects for the Democratic Majority,” Political Science Quarterly 124:1 (Spring 2009), 1-30
David R. Mayhew, “The Meaning of the 2008 Election,” ch. 9 in Michael Nelson (ed.), The Elections of
2008 (2009)
James E. Campbell et al., “Symposium: Forecasting the 2008 National Elections,” PS: Political Science
and Politics 41:4 (October 2008), 679-732
12
James E. Campbell et al., “Forecasting Recap: Assessments of the 2008 National Election Forecasts,” PS:
Political Science and Politics 42:1 (January 2009), 19-25
Matt A. Barreto et al., “’Should They Dance with the One Who Brung ‘Em?” Latinos and the 2008
Presidential Election,” PS: Political Science and Politics 41:4 (October 2008), 753-64
Jeffrey S. Peake and Melissa K. Miller, “Presidential Primaries and the News: Coverage of the 2008
Nomination Campaign,” 2008 APSA paper
David R. Jones & Monika L. McDermott, “Disapproval of Congress and the 2008 House Elections,” 2009
MWPSA paper
Alan Siaroff, “How Barack Obama’s Votes Beat Hillary Clinton’s Votes in the 2008 Democratic
Presidential Contest: Not Malapportionment, But Turnout Variation and the Florida Effect,” The Forum
7:2 (2009), Article 4 (Berkeley Electronic Press)
Suzanna Linn, Jonathan Moody and Stephanie Asper, “Explaining the Horse Race of 2008,” PS: Political
Science and Politics 42:3 (July 2009), pp. 459-65
Robert S. Erikson, “The American Voter and the Economy, 2008,”PS: Political Science and Politics 42:3
(July 2009), 467-71
Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien & Richard Nadeau, “Obama’s Missed Landslide: A Racial Cost?
PS: Political Theory and Politics 43:1 (July 2009), 69-76
Roderick P. Hart and Colene J. Lind, “The Exceptional Electoral Style of Barack Obama,” 2009 APSA
conference paper
Costas Panagopoulos, “Preelection Poll Accuracy in the 2008 General Elections,” Presidential Studies
Quarterly 39:4 (December 2009), 896-9007
Travis N. Ridour, Brandon Rottinghaus & Nathan Hosey, “Following the Rules? Candidate Strategy in
Presidential Primaries,” Social Science Quarterly 90:4 (December 2009), 777-95
Rene Bautista et al., “Hispanic Voting Patterns in the 2008 Presidential Election: Evidence From National
Election Pool Exit Polls,” 2010 MWPSA conference paper
October 13 – HOUSE ELECTIONS: GENERALITIES
Required: Robert S. Erikson, “The Puzzle of Midterm Loss,” Journal of Politics 50 (1988), 1011-29
Suggested: D. Roderick Kiewiet & Michael Udell, “Twenty-Five Years After Kramer: An Assessment of
Economic Retrospective Voting Based upon Improved Estimates of Income and Unemployment,”
Economics and Politics 10 (1998), 219-48
Robert S. Erikson & Gerald C. Wright, “Voters, Candidates, and Issues in Congressional Elections,” ch. 4
in Lawrence C. Dodd & Bruce I. Oppenheimer (eds.), Congress Reconsidered (7th ed., 2001). An
authoritative summary of many aspects.
Richard W. Waterman, Bruce I. Oppenheimer, and James A Stimson, “Sequence and Equilibrium in
Congressional Elections: An Integrated Approach,” Journal of Politics 53 (1991), 372-93. Includes the
“exposure” hypothesis.
13
Suzanna de Boeuf & James A. Stimson, “The Dynamic Structure of Congressional Elections,” Journal of
Politics 57 (1995), 630-48. Public opinion, elections, and policymaking.
Robert S. Erikson & Lee Sigelman, “Poll-Based Forecasts of the House Vote in Presidential Election Years:
1952-1992 and 1996,” American Politics Quarterly 24 (1996), 520-31
Alan I. Abramowitz, “National Conditions, Strategic Politicians, and U.S. Congressional Elections: Using
the Generic Vote to Forecast the 2006 House and Senate Elections,” PS: Political Science and Politics
39:4 (October 2006), 863-66. All elections starting in 1946. The generic vote poll overpredicts the real
Democratic vote by 3.1%.
Robert S. Erikson, “Economic Conditions and the Congressional Vote: A Review of the Macrolevel
Evidence,” American Journal of Political Science 34 (1990), 373-99. See also followup comment by Gary
Jacobson and Erikson reply.
Richard L. Hall & Robert Van Houweling, “Avarice and Ambition in Congress: Representatives’ Decisions
to Run or Retire from the U.S. House,” American Political Science Review 89 (1995), 121-36
Stephen Ansolabehere, James M. Snyder, Jr. & Charles Stewart III, “Candidate Positioning in House
Elections,” American Journal of Political Science 45 (January 2001), 136-59. From 1874 through 1996.
House candidates have tended to attune themselves ideologically to their national parties more than to their
districts.
Giles Serra, “Primary Divergence: The Effects of Primary Elections on Candidate Strategies in the
Downsian Model,” 2006 APSA paper. A theoretical basis.
Ronald Keith Gaddie, Charles S. Bullock III & Scott E. Buchanan, “What Is So Special About Special
Elections?” Legislative Studies Quarterly 24 (1999), 103-12. They resemble open-seat November
elections.
David R. Smith and Thomas L. Brunell, “Special Elections to the U.S. House of Representatives: A
General Election Barometer?” Legislative Studies Quarterly 35:2 (May 2010), 283-97
Ronald Keith Gaddie, Kim U. Hoffman & Carrie Palmer, “Congressional Elections Beyond the Year of the
Woman: A Research Update,” Social Science Quarterly 81 (2000), 879-84
David C. Barker, “Rushed Decisions: Political Talk Radio and Vote Choice, 1994-1996,” Journal of
Politics 61 (1999), 527-39
Girish J. Gulati, “Connecting with Constituents: Congress and the Presentation of Self on the WWW,”
2002 APSA paper
Gary C. Jacobson, “ Reversal of Fortune: The Transformation of U.S. House Elections in the 1990s,” ch. 2
in David W. Brady, John F. Cogan & Morris P. Fiorina (eds.), Continuity and Change in House Elections
(2000)
Gary C. Jacobson, “A House and Senate Divided: The Clinton Legacy and the Congressional Elections of
2000,” Political Science Quarterly 116 (Spring 2001), 5-27
Gary C. Jacobson, “Polarized Politics and the 2004 Congressional and Presidential Elections,” Political
Science Quarterly 120 (2005), 199-218
Gary C. Jacobson, “The Congress: The Structural Basis of Republican Success,” ch. 8 in Michael Nelson
(ed.), The Elections of 2004 (2005)
14
Jamie L. Carson, “Candidates, Campaigns, and Competition in U.S. House Elections,” 2008 APSA paper
Jonathan N. Katz & Gary W. Cox, “Strategic Entry in U.S. House Elections,” 2008 APSA paper
Matthew Jarvis, “Competition Is Cool: Side-Benefits of Competitive Districts,” 2008 APSA paper
Matthew L. Jacobsmeier, “Religion and Perceptions of Candidate Ideologies in U.S. House Elections,”
2008 APSA paper
David R. Jones & Monika L. McDermott, “Disapproval of Congress and the 2008 House Elections,” 2009
MWPSA paper
Gary C. Jacobson, “The 2008 Presidential and Congressional Elections: Anti-Bush Referendum and
Prospects for the Democratic Majority,” Political Science Quarterly 124:1 (Spring 2009), 1-30
Christine B. Williams and Girish J. ‘Jeff’ Gulati, “Social Networks in Political Campaigns: Facebook and
Congressional Elections 2006, 2008,” 2009 APSA conference paper
On House midterm elections:
Andrew E. Busch, Horses in Midstream: U.S. Midterm Elections and Their Consequences, 1894-1998
(1999). A sketch of each election.
Matthew S. Shugart, “The Electoral Cycle and Institutional Sources of Divided Presidential Government,”
American Political Science Review 89 (1995), 327-43. What happens in midterms in other countries with
presidential systems? Very illuminating.
Steven D. Levitt, “An Empirical Test of Competing Explanations for the Midterm Gap in the U.S. House,”
Economics and Politics 6 (1994), 25-37
Edward R. Tufte, “Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections,” American Political
Science Review 69 (1975), 812-26
James E. Campbell, “The Presidential Surge and Its Midterm Decline in Congressional Elections, 18681988,” Journal of Politics 53 (1991), 477-87
Samuel Kernell, “Presidential Popularity and Negative Voting: An Alternative Explanation of the Midterm
Congressional Decline of the President’s Party,” American Political Science Review 71 (1977), 44-66
Alberto Alesina & Howard Rosenthal, Partisan Politics, Divided Government and the Economy (1995).
One idea: Voters correct in a midterm for the outcomes of preceding presidential elections.
Kenneth Scheve & Michael Tomz, “Electoral Surprise and the Midterm Loss in US Congressional
Elections,” British Journal of Political Science 29 (1999), 507-21
John J. Coleman, “The Importance of Being Republican: Forecasting Party Fortunes in House Midterm
Elections,” Journal of Politics 59 (May 1997), 497-519
Robert S. Erikson & Lee Sigelman, “Poll-Based Forecasts of Midterm Congressional Elections: Do the
Pollsters Get It Right?” Public Opinion Quarterly 59 (1995), 589-605
David W. Moore & Lydia Saad, “The Generic Ballot in Midterm Congressional Elections: Its Accuracy
and Relationship to House Seats,” Public Opinion Quarterly 61 (1997), 603-14
15
Gary C. Jacobson, “Deficit Cutting Politics and Congressional Elections,” Political Science Quarterly 108
(1993), 375-402. The 1990 election.
James E. Campbell, “The Presidential Pulse and the 1994 Midterm Congressional Election,” Journal of
Politics 59 (1997), 830-57
Mark J. Rozell & Clyde Wilcox, God at the Grassroots: The Christian Right in the 1994 Elections (1995)
Everett Carll Ladd, “The 1994 Congressional Elections: The Realignment Continues,” Political Science
Quarterly 110 (1995), 1-24
David W. Brady et al., “The Perils of Presidential Support: How the Republicans Took the House in the
1994 Midterm Elections,” Political Behavior 18 (December 1996), 345-68
Alan I. Abramowitz, “The End of the Democratic Era? 1994 and the Future of Congressional Election
Research,” Political Research Quarterly 48 (1995), 873-89
Lyman A. Kellstedt et al., “Has Godot Finally Arrived? Religion and Realignment,” The Public
Perspective, June/July 1995, 18-22
Philip A. Klinkner (ed.), Midterm: Elections of 1994 in Context (1996)
Gary C. Jacobson, “The 1994 House Elections in Perspective,” Political Science Quarterly 111 (1996),
203-23
John R. Hibbing & Eric Tiritilli, “Public Disapproval of Congress Can Be Dangerous to Majority Party
Candidates: The Case of 1994,” ch. 6 in Brady, Cogan & Fiorina (eds.), Continuity and Change in House
Elections (2000)
Robert A. Jackson, “Differential Influences on Participation in Midterm Versus Presidential Elections,”
Social Science Journal 37 (2000), 385-402
Joel Lefkowitz, “Mobilization Matters: The Changing Impact of Mobilization on Vote Choice in
Congressional Elections, 1978-2002,” Congress and the Presidency 31 (2004), 119-31
Gary C. Jacobson, “Impeachment Politics in the 1998 Congressional Elections,” Political Science Quarterly
114 (1999), 31-51
Alan I. Abramowitz, “It’s Monica, Stupid: The Impeachment Controversy and the 1998 Midterm Election,”
Legislative Studies Quarterly 26 (May 2001), 211-26
Ben Highton, “Clinton, Gingrich, and the 1998 Election,” Public Opinion Quarterly 66 (spring 2002), 1+
James E. Campbell, “The 2002 Midterm Election: A Typical or an Atypical Midterm?” PS: Political
Science and Politics 36 (2003), 203-07
Gary C. Jacobson, “Terror, Terrain, and Turnout: Explaining the 2002 Midterm Elections,” Political
Science Quarterly 118 (2003), 1-22
Gary C. Jacobson, “September 11 and the U.S. House Elections of 2002,” 2003 APSA paper
Robert Huckfeldt et al., “Information, Activation, and Electoral Competition in the 2002 Congressional
Elections,” Journal of Politics 69:3 (August 2007), 798-812. Full workout of NES data.
16
Joseph Bafumi, Robert S. Erikson & Christopher Wlezien, “Forecasting House Seats from Generic
Congressional Polls,” APSA Legislative Studies Section, Extension of Remarks, 30:1 (January 2007)
Michael P. McDonald, “Rocking the House: Competition and Turnout in the 2006 Midterm Election,” The
Forum (The Berkeley Electronic Press), 4:3 (2006), article 4
Philip A. Klinkner & Thomas F. Schaller, “A Regional Analysis of the 2006 Midterms,” The Forum (The
Berkeley Electronic Press), 4:3 (2006), article 9
Alfred G. Cuzan, “The 2006 House Elections: Forecasts and Results,” APSA Legislative Studies Section,
Extension of Remarks, 30:1 (January 2007)
Lara M. Brown, “It’s Good to be an Incumbent: Scandals, Corruption, and the 2006 Midterm Elections,”
APSA Legislative Studies Section, Extension of Remarks, 30:1 (January 2007)
James W. Ceaser & Daniel DiSalvo, “Midterm Elections, Partisan Context, and Political Leadership: The
2006 Elections and Party Alignment,” The Forum (Berkeley online journal) 4:3 (2006), article 11
Jack Pitney, “The [2006] Midterm: What Political Science Should Ask Now,” The Forum (Berkeley online
journal), 4:3 (2006), article 2
Gary C. Jacobson, “Referendum: The 2006 Midterm Congressional Elections,” Political Science Quarterly
122;1 (spring 2007), 1-24
October 20 – HOUSE ELECTIONS: PARTICULARITIES
Required: Gary C. Jacobson, “The 1994 House Elections in Perspective,” Political Science Quarterly
11:2 (Summer 1996), 203-23
Suggested: John Ferejohn, “A Tale of Two Congresses: Social Policy in the Clinton Years,” ch. 2 in
Margaret Weir (ed.), The Social Divide (1998). This is an excellent companion piece to the Jacobson
article above. It addresses the electoral effects of roll call voting in both the 1994 and 1996 House
elections.
Stephen Ansolabehere and Philip Edward Jones, “Constituents’ Responses to Congressional Roll-Call
Votng,” American Journal of Political Science 54:3 (July 2010), 583-97
Jamie L. Carson et al., “The Electoral Costs of Party Loyalty in Congress,” American Journal of Political
Science 54:3 (July 2010), 598-616
Jamie L. Carson & Erik J. Engstrom, “Assessing the Electoral Connection: Evidence from the Early United
States,” American Journal of Political Science 49:4 (October 2005), 746-57. All else equal, did MCs who
backed J. Q. Adams for president in 1825 suffer in the following midterm? Yes.
Jamie L. Carson et al., “The Impact of National Tides and District-Level Effects on Electoral Outcomes:
The U.S. Congressional Elections of 1862-63,” American Journal of Political Science 45 (2001), 887-98
Jamie L. Carson, “Electoral and Partisan Forces in the Roosevelt Era: The U.S. Congressional Elections of
1938,” Congress & the Presidency 28 (2001), 161-83
Robert A. Schoenberger, “Campaign Strategy and Party Loyalty: The Electoral Relevance of Candidate
Decision-Making in the 1964 Congressional Elections,” American Political Science Review 63 (1969), 51520
17
Gerald C. Wright, Jr., “Constituency Responses to Congressional Behavior: The Impact of the House
Judiciary Committee Impeachment Votes,” Western Political Quarterly 30 (1977), 401-10
Gary C. Jacobson & Michael A. Dimock, “Checking Out: The Effects of Bank Overdrafts on the 1992
House Elections,” American Journal of Political Science 38 (1994), 601-24
Michael A. Dimock & Gary C. Jacobson, “Checks and Balances: The House Bank Scandal’s Impact on
Voters in 1992,” Journal of Politics 57 (1995), 1143-59
Timothy Groseclose & Keith Krehbiel, “Golden Parachutes, Rubber Checks, and Strategic Retirements
from the 102d House,” American Journal of Political Science 38 (1994), 75-99. The 1992 election.
Susan A. Banducci & Jeffrey A. Karp, “Electoral Consequences of Scandal and Reapportionment in the
1992 House Elections,” American Politics Quarterly 22 (1994), 3-26
Gary C. Jacobson, “The 1994 House Elections in Perspective,” Political Science Quarterly 111 (1996),
203-23
Brian J. Gaines & Timothy P. Nokken, “The Presidential Shadow on Midterm House Elections:
Presidential Support, Presidential Agendas, Vote and Seat Loss,” 2001 MWPSA paper. From 1959 through
1994, the 1994 midterm stands out for voter choice dwelling on individual member roll call records.
Christopher Kenny, Michael McBurnett & David Bordua, “The Impact of Political Interests in the 1994 and
1996 Congressional Elections: The Case of the National Rifle Association,” British Journal of Political
Science 34 (2004), 331-44
Gary C. Jacobson, “The Effect of the AFL-CIO’s ‘Voter Education’ Campaigns on the 1996 House
Elections,” Journal of Politics 61 (1999), 185-94
Gregory L. Bovitz & Jamie L. Carson, “Position-Taking and Electoral Accountability in the U.S. House of
Representatives,” Political Research Quarterly 59:2 (June 2006), 297-312. In many cases since 1973,
differentiation in roll call position-taking has had electoral effects.
John G. Peters & Susan Welch, “The Effects of Charges of Corruption on Voting Behavior in
Congressional Elections,” American Political Science Review 74 (1980), 697-708
Susan Welch & John R. Hibbing, “The Effects of Corruption on Voting Behavior in Congressional
Elections, 1982-1990,” Journal of Politics 59 (1997), 226-39
Lara Michelle Brown, “Revisiting the Character of Congress: Scandals in the U.S. House of
Representatives, 1966-2002,” Journal of Political Marketing 5 (2006), 149-72
Jeffrey J. Mondak, “Competence, Integrity, and the Electoral Success of Congressional Incumbents,”
Journal of Politics 57 (1995), 1043-69
Carl McCurley & Jeffrey J. Mondak, “Inspected by #1184063113: The Influence of Incumbents’
Competence and Integrity in U.S. House Elections,” American Journal of Political Science 39 (1995), 86485
Brandice Canes-Wrone, David W. Brady & John F. Cogan, “Out of Step, Out of Office: Electoral
Accountability and House Members’ Voting,” American Political Science Review 96 (2002), 127-40
Jeremy M. Teigen, “How Military Experience Aids Congressional Candidates,” 2006 MWPSA paper
Michael M. Ting, “Party Labels, Roll Call Votes, and Elections,” 2001 APSA ms.
18
John Ferejohn, “A Tale of Two Congresses: Social Policy in the Clinton Years,” ch. 2 in Margaret Weir
(ed.), The Social Divide (1998). The electoral costs of risky roll call voting in the 1994 and 1996 elections.
Gary C. Jacobson, Samuel Kernell & Jeffrey Lazarus, “Assessing the President’s Role as Party Agent in
Congressional Elections: The Case of Bill Clinton in 2000,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 29 (2004), 15984
David Karol & Edward Miguel, “The Electoral Cost of War: Iraq Casualties and the 2004 U.S. Presidential
Election,” Journal of Politics 69:3 (August 2007), 633-48
Robin M. Wolpert & James G. Gimpel, “Information, Recall, and Accountability: The Electorate’s
Response to the Clarence Thomas Nomination,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 22:4 (1997), 535-50. This
addresses senators, not House members.
On incumbency advantage, districting, and polarization:
Michael E. McDonald, “The Arithmetic of Electoral Bias, with Applications to U.S. House Elections,”
2009 APSA conference paper
Alan I. Abramowitz, Brad Alexander & Matthew Gunning, “Incumbency, Redistricting, and the Decline of
Competition in U.S. House Elections,” Journal of Politics 68:1 (February 2006), 75-88
Bruce I. Oppenheimer, “Deep Red and Blue Congressional Districts: The Causes and Consequences of
Declining Party Competitiveness,” ch. 6 in L. C. Dodd & B. I. Oppenheimer (eds.), Congress Reconsidered
(8th ed., 2005).
Seth Masket, John Winburn & Gerald C. Wright, “The Limits of the Gerrymander: Examining the Impact
of Redistricting on Electoral Competition and Legislative Polarization,” 2006 MWPSA paper. Based on
analysis of state legislatures having a variety of districting blueprints—partisan, bipartisan, judicial, etc.
Alan I. Abramowitz et al., “Don’t Blame Redistricting for Uncompetitive Elections,” PS: Political Science
and Politics 39:1 (2006), 87-90
Keiko Ono, “Electoral Origins of Partisan Polarization in Congress: Debunking the Myth,” Extensions
(publication of the Legislative Studies Section of the APSA), Fall 2005, 15-19, 25
Donald C. Baumer & Howard J. Gold, “Party Images and Partisan Resurgence,” Social Science Journal 44
(2007), 465-79. 1952-2004.
Alan I. Abramowitz & Kyle A. Saunders, “Is Polarization a Myth?” Journal of Politics 70:2 (April 2008),
542-55
Morris Fiorina, Samuel A. Abrams and Jeremy C. Pope, “Polarization in the American Public:
Misconceptions and Misreadings,” Journal of Politics 70::2 (April 2008), 556-60
Seth C. McKee, “Rural Voters and the Polarization of American Presidential Elections,” PS: Political
Science and Politics 41:1 (January 2008), 101-08
Shigeo Hirano & James J. Snyder, Jr., “Primaries and Polarization in the U.S. Senate,” 2008 APSA paper
Phillip A. Ardoin & Ronald J. Vogel, “What a Difference a Decade Makes: Understanding Congressional
Polarization,” 2008 APSA paper
Alan I. Abramowitz, “The Engaged Public and Polarization in American Politics,” 2008 APSA paper
19
Craig Burnett, “The Polarizing Tide: How Strength of Opinions Ebb and Flow with the Electoral Cycle,”
2008 APSA paper
David R. Mayhew, “Congressional Elections: The Case of the Vanishing Marginals,” Polity 6 (1974), 295317. Early work on House incumbency advantage.
John R. Alford & David W. Brady, “Personal and Partisan Advantage in U.S. Congressional Elections,” ch.
6 in Lawrence C. Dodd & Bruce I. Oppenheimer (eds.), Congress Reconsidered (4th edition, 1989). Tracks
House incumbency advantage over a century and a half.
Roy A. Dawes & A. Hunter Bacot, “Electoral Career Patterns and Incumbency Advantage in the U.S.
House of Representatives,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 23 (1998), 575-83. This updates the
Alford/Brady time series.
Gary C. Jacobson, “The Marginals Never Vanished: Incumbency and Competition in Elections to the U.S.
House of Representatives, 1952-82,” American Journal of Political Science 31 (1987), 126-41
Stephen Ansolabehere et al., “The Vanishing Marginals and Electoral Responsiveness,” British Journal of
Political Science 22 (1992), 21-38. A reply to Jacobson.
Monica Bauer & John R. Hibbing, “Which Incumbents Lose in House Elections: A Response to Jacobson’s
‘The Marginals Never Vanished,’” American Journal of Political Science 33:1 (1989), 262-71
Andrew Gelman & Gary King, “Estimating Incumbency Advantage Without Bias,” American Journal of
Political Science 34 (1990), 1142-64
John Zaller, “Politicians as Prize Fighters: Electoral Selection and Incumbency Advantage,” ch. 6 in John
G. Geer (ed.), Politicians and Party Politics (1998)
Gary W. Cox & Jonathan N. Katz, “Why Did the Incumbency Advantage in U.S. House Elections Grow?”
American Journal of Political Science 40 (1996), 478-97
Markus Prior, “The Incumbent in the Living Room: The Rise of Television and Incumbency Advantage in
U.S. House Elections,” Journal of Politics 68:3 (August 2006), 657-73
Stephen Ansolabehere et al., “Television and the Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Elections,” Legislative
Studies Quarterly 31 (November 2006), 469-90.
Steven D. Levitt & Catherine D. Wolfram, “Decomposing the Sources of Incumbency Advantage in the
U.S. House,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 45 (February 1997), 45-60
Stephen Ansolabehere & James M. Snyder, Jr., “Money and Office: The Sources of the Incumbency
Advantage in Congressional Campaign Finance,” ch. 4 in David W. Brady, John F. Cogan & Morris P.
Fiorina (eds.), Continuity and Change in House Elections (2000). Incumbency generates money, which in
turn helps out incumbency.
Stephen Ansolabehere, James M. Snyder, Jr. & Charles Stewart III, “Old Voters, New Voters, and the
Personal Vote: Using Redistricting to Measure the Incumbency Advantage,” American Journal of Political
Science 44 (2000), 17-34
Stephen Ansolabehere & Alan Gerber, “Incumbency Advantage and the Persistence of Legislative
Majorities,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 22 (May 1997), 161-78
20
Franco Mattei & Joshua Glasgow, “Presidential Coattails, Incumbency Advantage, and Open Seats: A
Distict-Level Analysis of 1976-2000 U.S. House Elections,” Electoral Studies 24 (2005), 619-41
Jamie L. Carson, “Strategy, Selection, and Candidate Competition in U.S. House and Senate Elections,”
Journal of Politics 67 (2005), 1-28
Stephen Ansolabehere & James M. Snyder, Jr., “The Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Elections: An
Analysis of State and Federal Offices, 1942-2000,” Election Law Journal 1 (2002), 315-38
Walter J. Stone, L. Sandy Maisel & Cherie D. Maestas, “Quality Counts: Extending the Strategic Politician
Model of Incumbent Deterrence,” American Journal of Political Science 48 (2004), 479-95
David W. Brady & Bernard Grofman, “Modelling the Determinants of Swing Ratios and Bias in U.S.
House Elections, 1850-1980,” Political Geography Quarterly 10 (1991), 254-62
Jamie L. Carson et al., “Assessing the Incumbency Advantage across Time: Evidence from the Nineteenth
Century U.S. Congress,” 2005 APSA paper
Micah Altman et al., “How Computing Has Changed Redistricting,” 2005 APSA paper
Peverill Squire, “Uncontested Seats and Electoral Competition for the U.S. House of Representatives over
Time,” Journal of Politics 59 (May 1997), 452-68
John W. Swain, Stephen A. Borrelli & Brian C. Reed, “Partisan Consequences of the Post-1990
Redistricting for the U.S. House of Representatives,” Political Research Quarterly 51 (1998), 945-67
Michael Lyons & Peter F. Galderisi, “Incumbency, Reapportionment, and U.S. House Redistricting,”
Political Research Quarterly 48 (1995), 857-71. The effects in 1992.
Richard G. Niemi & Alan I. Abramowitz, “Partisan Redistricting and the 1992 Congressional Elections,”
Journal of Politics 56 (1994), 811-17
David Lublin, “The Election of African Americans and Latinos to the U.S. House of Representatives, 19721994,” American Politics Quarterly 25 (July 1997), 269-86
John R. Petrocik & Scott W. Desposato, “The Partisan Consequences of Majority-Minority Redistricting in
the South, 1992 and 1994,” Journal of Politics 60 (1998), 613-33
Kevin A. Hill, “Does the Creation of Majority Black Districts Aid Republicans? An Analysis of the 1992
Congressional Elections in Eight Southern States,” Journal of Politics 57 (1995), 384-401
Charles Cameron, David Epstein, & Sharyn O’Halloran, “Do Majority-Minority Districts Maximize
Substantive Black Representation in Congress,” American Political Science Review 90 (1996), 794-812.
David Lublin, “Racial Redistricting and African-American Representation: A Critique of ‘Do MajorityMinority Districts Maximize Substantive Black Representation in Congress?’” American Political Science
Review 93 (1999), 183-86
David Epstein & Sharyn O’Halloran, “Majority-Minority Districts and the New Politics of Congressional
Elections,” ch. 5 in David W. Brady, John F. Cogan & Morris P. Fiorina (eds.), Continuity and Change in
House Elections (2000).
Richard Forgette & John W. Winkle III, “Partisan Gerrymandering and the Voting Rights Act,” Social
Science Quarterly 87:1 (March 2006), 155-73. Redistricting after the 2000 census.
21
Richard Forgette & Glenn Platt, “Redistricting Principles and Incumbency Protection in the U.S. Congress,”
Political Geography 24 (2005), 934-51. On the redistricting of 2001-02.
Jamie L. Carson, Erik J. Engstrom & Jason M. Roberts, “Candidate Quality, the Personal Vote, and the
Incumbency Advantage in Congress,” American Political Science Review 101:2 (May 2007), 289-301
October 27 – SENATE ELECTIONS
Required: Alan Abramowitz, “Explaining Senate Election Outcomes,” American Political Science
Review 82 (1988), 385-403
Suggested: Sarah Binder, Forrest Maltzman & Lee Sigelman, “Senators’ Home-State Reputations: Why
Do Constituents Love a Bill Cohen So Much More Than an Al D’Amato?” Legislative Studies Quarterly
23 (1998), 545-60
Bernard Grofman et al., “Why Gain in the Senate But Midterm Loss in the House? Evidence from a
Natural Experiment,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 23 (1998), 79-89
Mark C. Westlye, Senate Elections and Campaign Intensity (1991), chs. 1 & 2
Jonathan Krasno, The Vulnerable Incumbent: Comparing Senate and House Elections (1994)
Alan I. Abramowitz & Jeffrey A. Segal, Senate Elections (1992)
Kenneth Collier & Michael Munger, “A Comparison of Incumbent Security in the House and Senate,”
Public Choice 78 (1994), 145-54
Richard W. Waterman, “Comparing Senate and House Elections: The Exposure Thesis,” Legislative
Studies Quarterly 15 (1990), 99-114
Roger H. Marz, “Treadmill to Oblivion: The Fate of Appointed Senators,” 1975 APSA paper.
James D. King, “Running on Their Own: The Electoral Success (and Failure) of Appointed U.S. Senators,”
1998 APSA paper
Jennifer A. Steen & Jonathan GS Koppell, “The Senate’s Other Revolving Door: Incumbency Advantage
and the Electoral Fortunes of Appointed Senators,” 2002 MWPSA ms.
Timothy R. Lynch, “The Replacements: Appointed Senators and ‘Re’ Election 1914-2008,” 2010 MWPSA
conference paper
Amihai Glazer & Bernard Grofman, “Two Plus Two Equals Six: Tenure in Office of Senators and
Representatives, 1953-1983,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 12 (1987), 555-63
Keith T. Poole & Howard Rosenthal, “The Polarization of American Politics,” Journal of American Politics
46 (1984), 1061-79. Why senators of different parties from the same state?
Rebekkah Herrick & Sue Thomas, “Split Delegations in the United States Senate, 1920-1988,” Social
Science Journal 30 (1993), 69-81
Daniel M. Butler & Matthew J. Butler, “Splitting the Difference: What Explains Split-party Delegations in
the U.S. Senate?” MWPSA paper, April 2005
22
Charles H. Franklin, “Senate Incumbent Visibility Over the Election Cycle,” Legislative Studies Quarterly
18 (1993), 271-90
Gerald C. Wright, Jr. & Michael B. Berkman, “Candidates and Policy in United States Senate Elections,”
American Political Science Review 80 (1986), 567-88
Lyn Ragsdale & Jerrold G. Rusk, “Candidates, Issues, and Participation in Senate Elections,” Legislative
Studies Quarterly 20 (1995), 305-28
Todd G. Shields, Robert K. Goedel & Barry Tadlock, “The Net Impact of Media Exposure on Individual
Voting Decisions in U.S. Senate and House Elections,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 20 (1995), 415-30
Alan I. Abramowitz, “Determinants of the Outcomes of U.S. Senate Elections,” Journal of Politics 48
(1986), 433+. From 1920 through 1984. Explains seat swings.
Benjamin Highton, “Senate Elections in the United States, 1920-94,” British Journal of Political Science 30
(2000), 483-506. What factors explain the outcomes?
John R. Hibbing & John R. Alford, “Economic Conditions and the Forgotten Side of Congress: A Foray
into U.S. Senate Elections,” British Journal of Political Science 12 (1982), 505+. Also predicts partisan
seat swings.
Randall W. Bennett & Clark Wiseman, “Economic Performance and U.S. Senate Elections, 1958-1986,”
Public Choice 69 (1991), 93-100
Michael Lewis-Beck & Tom W. Rice, “Are Senate Election Outcomes Predictable” PS: Political Science
and Politics 18 (Fall 1985), 745-54
John R. Hibbing & Sara L. Brandes, “State Population Size and the Electoral Success of U. S. Senators,”
American Journal of Political Science 27 (1983), 808-19
John D. Griffin, “Senate Apportionment as a Source of Political Inequality,” APSA paper, September 2004.
Which voter views or demographics are underrepresented or overrepresented given the apportionment
design?
David R. Rohde, “Risk-Bearing and Progressive Ambition: The Case of the United States House of
Representatives,” American Journal of Political Science 23 (1979), 1-26
Peverill Squire, “Challenger Quality and Voting Behavior in U.S. Senate Elections,” Legislative Studies
Quarterly 17 (1992), 247-63
Monika A. McDermott & David R. Jones, “Congressional Performance, Incumbent Behavior, and Voting in
Senate Elections,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 30 (2005), 235-57. Voting for or against incumbents as a
function of assessments of the performance of the Senate as a whole.
David I. Lublin, “Quality, Not Quantity: Strategic Politicians in U.S. Senate Elections, 1952-1990,”
Journal of Politics 56 (1994), 228-41
Gary W. Copeland, “Choosing to Run: Why House Members Seek Election to the Senate,” Legislative
Studies Quarterly 14 (1989), 549-65
James E. Campbell & Joe A. Summers, “Presidential Coattails in Senate Elections,” American Political
Science Review 84 (1990), 513-24
23
Henry C. Kenski & Lee Sigelman, “Where the Votes Come From: Group Components of the 1988 Senate
Vote,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 18 (1993), 367-90
Kim Fridkin Kahn & Patrick J. Kenney, “A Model of Candidate Evaluations in Senate Elections: The
Impact of Campaign Intensity,” Journal of Politics 59 (1997), 1173-1205
Karlyn H. Bowman & Tom W. Smith, “When Rudy Meets Hillary,” Public Perspective, August/September
1999, pp. 30-37. This gives voter breakdowns by gender and state for all Senate elections of the 1990s
involving women candidates.
Ken Goldstein & Paul Freedman, “New Evidence for New Arguments: Money and Advertising in the 1996
Senate Elections,” Journal of Politics 62 (2000), 1087-1108. Uses a state-by-state measure of political
advertising exposure.
Richard R. Lau & Gerald M. Pomper, “Effectiveness of Negative Campaigning in U.S. Senate Elections,”
American Journal of Political Science 46 (2002), 47-66
Robin W. Wolpert & James G. Gimpel, “Information, Recall, and Accountability: The Electorate’s
Response to the Clarence Thomas Nomination,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 22:4 (1997), 535-50
Kim Fridkin Kahn & Patrick J. Kenney, “The Slant of the News: How Editorial Endorsements Influence
Campaign Coverage and Citizens’ Views of Candidates,” American Political Science Review 96 (2002),
381-94. Press bias in coverage of Senate elections.
Kenneth Ackerman, “History Shows That This Year’s Senate Flip Isn’t Really Unprecedented,” Roll Call,
6/21/01, p. 11. As in 2000, there was a tied Senate outcome in 1880 also, sort of.
Barry C. Burden, “United States Senators as Presidential Candidates,” Political Science Quarterly 117
(2002), 81-102
Wayne P. Steger, “Stepping Stone to the White House or Tombstone on Presidential Ambition: Why
Senators Usually Fair When They Run for the White House,” American Review of Politics 27 (spring
2006), 45-70
Jack Citrin, Eric Schickler & John Sides, “What if Everyone Voted? Simulating the Impact of Increased
Turnout in Senate Elections,” American Journal of Political Science 47 (2003), 75-90
Gary C. Jacobson, “Campaign Spending Effects in U.S. Senate Elections: Evidence from the National
Annenberg Election Survey,” Electoral Studies 25 (2006), 195-226
Gary C. Jacobson, “Polarized Opinion in the States: Partisan Differences in Approval Ratings of
Governors, Senators, and George W. Bush,” 2006 MWPSA paper
John D. Griffin, “Senate Apportionment as a Source of Inequality,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 31:3
(August 2006), 405-32
Benjamin Highton, “Job Approval and Senate Election Outcomes in the United States,” Legislative Studies
Quarterly 33:2 (May 2008), 245-61
Charles Stewart III & Wendy J. Schiller, “The Effect of Popular Election on the Partisan Composition of
the U.S. Senate,” 2008 APSA paper
Shigeo Hirano & James M. Snyder, Jr., “Primaries and Polarization in the U.S. Senate,” 2008 APSA paper
24
Diana Tracy Cohen, “Tapping the Liberal Blogosphere: Ned Lamont’s 2006 U.S. Senate Campaign,” 2008
APSA paper
Benjamin Highton, “Job Approval and Senate Election Outcomes in the United States,” Legislative Studies
Quarterly 3:2 (May 2008), 245-61
Governorship elections:
Peverill Squire & Christina Fastnow, “Comparing Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections,” Political
Research Quarterly 47 (1994), 705-20
Thomas M. Carsey & Gerald C. Wright, “State and National Factors in Gubernatorial and Senatorial
Elections,” American Journal of Political Science 42 (July 1998), 994-1002
David L. Leal, Electing America’s Governors: The Politics of Executive Elections (2006). Basic on the
subject. Comparison and contrast with Senate elections.
Michael Ebeid & Jonathan Rodden, “Economic Geography and Economic Voting: Evidence from the U.S.
States,” British Journal of Political Science 36 (2006), 527-47. More on governorship elections. How do
various economic variables work?
Justin Wolfers, “Are Voters Rational? Evidence from Gubernatorial Elections,” Stanford Graduate School
of Business Research Paper No. 1730, 2002. This and the two preceding sources seem to be state of the art
on gubernatorial elections. This ones uses oil prices as an instrument.
Adam R. Brown & Gary C. Jacobson, “Party, Performance, and Strategic Politicians: The Dynamics of
Election for Senators and Governors in 2006,” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 8:4 (Winter 2008), 384409
Conor M. Dowling & Steve B. Lem, “Explaining Major and Third Party Candidate Entry in U.S.
Gubernatorial Elections, 1980-2005,” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 9:1 (Spring 2009), 1-23
Robin Best and Thomas L. Brunell, “Do National Tides Affect Governors? Midterm Loss in Gubernatorial
Elections,” 2009 MWPSA paper
Frederick Boehmke, “Economic Voting in the American States,” 2010 MWPSA conference paper
November 3 – DISCUSSION OF THE 2010 ELECTION RESULTS
November 10 – POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY
Required: Stephen Ansolabehere, Jonathan Rodden & James M. Snyder, Jr., “Purple America,”
Journal of Economic Perspectives 20:2 (Spring 2006), 97-118
Suggested: Edward L. Glaeser & Bryce A. Ward, “Myths and Realities of American Political Geography,”
Journal of Economic Perspectives 20:2 (Spring 2006), 119-44.
Harvey L. Schantz, “Sectionalism in Presidential Elections,” ch. 3 in Schantz (ed.), American Presidential
Elections (1996)
James Gimpel & Jason E. Schuknecht,” Patchwork Nation: Sectional and Political Change in American
Politics (2004)
25
J. Clark Archer, “The Geography of U.S. Presidential Elections,” Scientific American, July 1988, 44-51
Merle Black, “The Transformation of the Southern Democratic Party,” Journal of Politics 66 (2004), 100117. General piece on southern demographic/vote evolution.
Jeongdai Kim, Euel Elliott & Ding-Ming Wang, “A Spatial Analysis of County-Level Outcomes in US
Presidential Elections: 1988-2000,” Electoral Studies 22 (2003), 741-61
David A. Hopkins, “Geographic Polarization in American Presidential Elections,” MWPSA conference
paper, April 2005
J. Clark Archer, “The Geography of an Interminable Election: Bush v. Gore, 2000,” Political Geography
21 (2002), 71-77. Maps.
James G. Gimpel, “Battleground States versus Blackout States: Behavioral Implications of Modern
Presidential Campaigns,” 2005 APSA paper
James G. Gimpel et al., “The Political Geography of Campaign Contributions in American Politics,”
Journal of Politics 68:3 (August 2006), 657-73
Richard Morrill, Larry Knopp & Michael Brown, “Anomalies in Red and Blue: Exceptionalism in
American Political Geography,” Political Geography 26 (2007), 525-553. This is an analysis of counties
that voted the wrong way, so to speak, in the 2004 presidential elections, given their rural-urban makeup.
Andrew Gelman, Red State. Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do
(2008)
Lucy M. Goodhart, “Red State – Blue State: The Political Creation of Geographic Salience,” 2008 APSA
paper
David A. Hopkins, “The Rebirth of Regionalism: Geographic Polarization in Federal and State Elections,”
2008 APSA paper
Jeffrey M. Stonecash & Howard L. Reiter, “The Partisan Transformation of the Northeast,” 2008 APSA
paper
Brian K. Arbour, “Issue Voting in Red and Blue, and Blue and Gray: Regional Differences in the 2006
Election,” 2008 APSA paper
Jody Baumgartner, Peter L. Francia & Jonathan S. Morris, “Is it Really Red versus Blue? Politics,
Religions, and the Culture War Within,” American Review of Politics 29 (spring 2008), 1-18.
Robert D. Brown & John M. Bruce, “Partisan-Ideological Divergence and Changing Party Fortunes in the
States, 1968-2003,” Political Research Quarterly 61:4 (December 2008), 585-97
The Electoral College:
Lawrence D. Longley & Neal R. Peirce, The Electoral College Primer 2000 (1999). The in and outs of the
electoral college.
“Is There a Better Way?” National Journal post-election special on the electoral college, 11/18/00, pp.
3650-65
George C. Edwards III, Why the Electoral College Is Bad for America (2004) – pp. 48-51 on counting the
Alabama vote in 1960.
26
Brian J. Gaines, “Popular Myths about Popular Vote-Electoral College Splits,” PS: Political Science and
Politics (March 2001), 71-75. On counting the Alabama vote in 1960.
Walter A. McDougall, ‘The Slippery Statistics of the Popular Vote,” New York Times, 11/16/00, online.
More on the Alabama vote in 1960.
Neal R. Peirce & Lawrence D. Longley, The People’s President: The Electoral College in American
History and the Direct Vote Alternative (1981), pp. 63-73, 314-15. More on Alabama in 1960.
Edmund F. Kallina, “The State’s Attorney and the President: The Inside Story of the 1960 Presidential
Election in Illinois,” Journal of American Studies 12 (1978), 147-60
Peter Carlson, “Another Race to the Finish,” Washington Post, 11/17/00, p. A1. The Kennedy/Nixon
election of 1960.
Ronald R. King, “Hayes Truly Won: A Revisionist Analysis of the 1876 Electoral Vote in Louisiana, South
Carolina and Florida,” 2000 APSA conference paper
N.R. Kleinfeld, “President Tilden? No, but Almost, in Another Vote That Dragged On,” New York Times,
11/12/00, online.
Robert G. Kaiser, “1876’s Parallels Hold No Comfort,” Washington Post, 12/17/00, p. A34
John D. McKinnon, “The Florida Scene Is 1876 All Over Again—Without the Shotguns,” Wall Street
Journal, 12/11/00, p. A18
Randall E. Adkins & Kent A. Kirwan, “What Role Does the ‘Federalism Bonus’ Play in Presidential
Elections,” Publius 32 (2002), 71-90. Made a difference in 1876, 1916, and 2000.
I.M. Destler, “The Myth of the Electoral College Lock,” PS: Political Science and Politics 29 (September
1996), 491-94
Lynda W. Powell, Stephen Gent & Clifford Brown, “Swing States and Misfires: Modeling State
Presidential Vote and the Electoral College,” MWPSA conference paper, April 2005. Which states have
been pivotal?
Michael G. Neubauer & Joel Zeitlin, “Outcomes of Presidential Elections and the House Size,” PS:
Political Science and Politics 36 (2003), 721-25
Bernard Grofman & Thomas Brunell, “Distinguishing Between the Effects of Swing Ratio and Bias on
Outcomes in the US Electoral College, 1900-1992,” Electoral Studies 16 (1997), 471-87
Daron R. Shaw, “The Methods behind the Madness: Presidential Electoral College Strategies,” Journal of
Politics 61 (1999), 893-913
Ron Johnston et al., “Disproportionality and Bias in US Presidential Elections: How Geography Helped
Bush Defeat Gore but Couldn’t Help Kerry Beat Bush,” Political Geography 24 (2005), 952-68. Who
“wasted” how many votes where?
Ron Johnston et al., “Changing the Scale and Changing the Result: Evaluating the Impact of an Electoral
Reform on the 2000 and 2004 US Presidential Elections,” Political Geography 25:5 (June 2006), 530-56.
For example, what difference would a Maine/Nebraska formula have made?
27
David A. Hopkins, “The 2008 Election and the Political Geography of the New Democratic Majority,”
Polity 41:3 (July 2009), 368-87
November 17 – ELECTION CAMPAIGNS
Required: Richard Johnston, Michael G. Hagen & Kathleen Hall Jamieson, The 2000 Presidential
Election and the Foundations of Party Politics (online book 2004, also available in Yale Bookstore),
chapters 5-7
Suggested: Robert S. Erikson, “The 2000 Presidential Election in Historical Perspective,” Political
Science Quarterly 116 (Spring 2001), 29-52
Christopher Wlezien & Robert S. Erikson, “The Timeline of Presidential Election Campaigns,” Journal of
Politics 64 (2002), 969-93
Christopher Wlezien, “Presidential Election Polls in 2000: A Study in Dynamics,” Presidential Studies
Quarterly 33 (2003), 172-87
Robert S. Erikson & Christopher Wlezien, “Presidential Polls as a Time Series,” Public Opinion Quarterly
63 (1999), 163-77. At various time points during a campaign, how well do polls actually predict the
November results?
Robert S. Erikson & Christopher Wlezien, “Of Time and Presidential Election Returns,” PS: Political
Science and Politics 29 (1996), 37-39
Christopher Wlezien & Robert S. Erikson, “The Horse Race: What Polls Reveal as the Election Campaign
Unfolds,” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 10:1 (March 2006), 74-88.
Andrew Gelman & Gary King, “Why Are American Presidential Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes
Are So Predictable?” British Journal of Political Science 23 (1993), 409-51. A theory of what happens in
campaigns.
Thomas S. Holbrook, “Campaigns, National Conditions, and U.S. Presidential Elections,” American
Journal of Political Science 38 (1994), 973-98
Thomas M. Holbrook, “Did the Whistle-Stop Campaign [of 1948] Matter?” PS: Political Science and
Politics 35 (March 2002), 59-66
J. Paul Herr, “The Impact of Campaign Appearances in the 1996 Election,” Journal of Politics 64 (August
2002), 904-13
Susan A. McManus, “Spouses as Campaign Surrogates: Strategic Appearances by Presidential and Vice
Presidential Candidates Wives’ in the 2004 Election,” PS: Political Science and Politics 41:2 (April 2008),
337-48
Daron R. Shaw, “The Impact of TV Ads and Personal Appearances on Statewide Presidential Votes, 198896,” American Political Science Review 93 (1999), 356-61
Daron R. Shaw, “A Study of Presidential Campaign Event Effects from 1952 to 1992,” Journal of Politics
61 (1999), 387-422
Daron R. Shaw & Brian E. Roberts, “Campaign Events, the Media and the Prospects of Victory: The 1992
and 1996 US Presidential Elections,” British Journal of Political Science 30 (2000), 259-89. Events make
a difference.
28
Lynn Vavreck, “More than Minimal Effects: The Content and Effects of Modern Presidential Campaigns,”
2003 APSA paper
Matthew A. Baum & Samuel Kernell, “Has Cable Ended the Golden Age of Presidential Television?”
American Political Science Review 93 (1999), 99-114
Robert Klotz, “Positive Spin: Campaigning on the Web,” PS: Political Science and Politics 30 (1997),
482-86
Girish J. Gulati, “Members of Congress, Congressional Candidates, and the Presentation of Self on the
WWW,” 2003 APSA paper
Kevin Jay Wallsten, “Web 2.0 and the Mainstream Media: How Facebook, MySpace and YouTube
Popularity Drive Media Coverage,” 2008 APSA paper
Diana Tracy Cohen, “Tapping the Liberal Blogosphere: Ned Lamont’s 2006 U.S. Senate Campaign,” 2008
APSA paper
Antoinette Pole, “YouTube, iTube, WeAllTube: Video Campaigning and the 2008 Presidential Primaries,”
2008 APSA paper
Dhavan V. Shah et al., “News Coverage, Economic Cues, and the Public’s Presidential Preferences, 19841996,” Journal of Politics 61 (1999), 914-43
Matthew A. Baum, “Talking the Vote: Why Presidential Candidates Hit the Talk Show Circuit,” American
Journal of Political Science 49 (2005), 213-34
Ted Brader, “Striking a Responsive Chord: How Political Ads Motivate and Persuade Voters by Appealing
to Emotions,” American Journal of Political Science 49 (2005), 388-405
Seth J. Hill et al., “The Duration of Advertising Effects in Presidential Campaigns,” 2008 APSA paper
Kenneth Finegold & Elaine K. Swift, “What Works? Competitive Strategies of Major Parties Out of
Power,” British Journal of Political Science 31 (January 2001), 95-120
Larry M. Bartels, “Resource Allocation in a Presidential Campaign,” Journal of Politics 47 (1985), 928-36
Daron R. Shaw, “The Methods behind the Madness: Presidential Electoral College Strategies, 1988-1996,”
Journal of Politics 61 (1999), 893-913
Stephen K. Medvic & Silvo Lenart, “The Influence of Political Consultants in the 1992 Congressional
Elections,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 45 (1997), 61-77
Stephen K. Medvic, “The Effectiveness of the Political Consultant as a Campaign Resource,” PS: Political
Science and Politics 31 (1998), 150-54
Kim Fridkin Kahn & Patrick J. Kenney, “The Slant of the News: How Editorial Endorsements Influence
Campaign Coverage and Citizens’ Views of Candidates,” American Political Science Review 96 (2002),
381-94. Senate campaigns.
James E. Campbell, “When Have Presidential Campaigns Decided Election Outcomes?” American Politics
Research 29 (2001), 437-60
29
Kathleen A. Frankovic & Monika L. McDermott, “Public Opinion in the 2000 Election: The Ambivalent
Electorate,” ch. 4 in Gerald M. Pomper (ed.), The Election of 2000
Thomas M. Holbrook & Scott D. McClurg, “The Mobilization of Core Supporters: Campaigns, Turnout,
and Electoral Composition in United States Presidential Elections,” American Journal of Political Science
49:4 (October 2005), 689-703
Darshan J. Goux, “Grading the Battleground: A New Measure of Presidential Campaign Activity in the
States, 1960-2004,” 2006 APSA paper
Heinz Brandenburg, “Revisiting the ‘Liberal Media Bias’: A Quantitative Study into Candidate Treatment
by Print and Broadcast Media During the 2004 Presidential Election Campaign,” 2006 APSA paper
John Zaller, “Rules of Press Coverage in Presidential Elections, 1948-1992,” 1995 APSA paper
Joseph E. Uscinski, “Too Close to Call? Uncertainty and Bias in Election-Night Reporting,” Social Science
Quarterly 88:1 (March 2007), 51-67. Says GOP was discriminated against on election night in 2000, but
not in 2004.
Kathleen Jamieson & Paul Waldman (eds.), Electing the President, 2000: The Insiders’ View (2003)
Kathleen Jamieson (ed.), Electing the President, 2004: The Insiders’ View (2005)
The Institute of Politics (KSG), Campaign for President: The Managers Look at 2004 (2006)
Andre Blais & Andrea M.L. Perrella, “Systemic Effects of Televised Candidates’ Debates,” International
Journal of Press/Politics 13:4 (2008), 451-64. Cross-national analysis.
Suzanna Linn, Jonathan Moody & Stephanie Asper, “Explaining the Horse Race of 2008,” PS: Political
Science and Politics 42:3 (July 2009), 459-65
James N. Druckman, Martin Kifer & Michael Parkin, “Timeless Strategy Meets New Medium: Going
Negative on Congressional Campaign Websites, 2002-2006,” 2009 APSA conference paper
Christine B. Williams and Girish J. ‘Jeff’ Gulati, “Social Networks in Poliitcal Campaigns: Facebook and
Congressional Elections 2006, 2008,” 2000 APSA conference paper
December 1 – VOTER TURNOUT
Required: Michael P. McDonald & Samuel L. Popkin, “The Myth of the Vanishing Voter,”
American Political Science Review 95 (2001), 963-74
Suggested: Arend Lijphart, “Unequal Participation: Democracy’s Unresolved Dilemma,” American
Political Science Review 91 (1997), 1-14
Michael P. McDonald, “The Myth of the Vanishing Voter in Comparative Perspective,” 2010 MWPSA
conference paper
André Blais, Louis Massicotte & Antoine Yoshinaka, “Deciding Who Has the Right to Vote: A
Comparative Analysis of Election Laws,” Electoral Studies 20 (2000), 41-62. Being a citizen? Residence
requirements? Living abroad? Prison inmates? A cross-national account.
G. Bingham Powell, “American Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective,” American Political Science
Review 80 (1986), 17-43
30
Walter Dean Burnham, “The Changing Shape of the American Political Universe,” American Political
Science Review 59 (1965), 7-28. Very influential time series.
Ronald Hayduk, “Noncitizen Voting Rights: Shifts in Immigrant Political Status During the Progressive
Era,” 2002 APSA ms. Some 22 states allowed non-citizen voting in the 19th century, before the Progressive
era called a halt.
Charles A. Kromkowski, “Why Has Voter Turnout Declined? Because It Has Not: American Electoral
Turnout Rates, 1776-2001,” 2001 MWPSA paper
Bill Winder, “The Roller Coaster of Class Conflict: Class Segments, Mass Mobilization, and Voter
Turnout in the United States, 1840-1996,” Social Forces 77 (1999), 833-62
John R. Lott, Jr. & Lawrence W. Kenny, “Did Women’s Suffrage Change the Size and Scope of
Government?” Journal of Political Economy 107 (1999), 1163-98
Matthew Gentzkow, “Television and Voter Turnout,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 126:3 (August
2006), 931-72. Staggered geographic introduction of TV in 1940s-50s allows test of voter turnout effects.
Ron Shachar & Barry Nalebuff, “Follow the Leader: Theory and Evidence on Political Participation,”
American Economic Review 89 (1999), 525-47. With U.S. states as data universe, presidential turnout is a
function of, among other things, predicted closeness.
Warren E. Miller & J. Merrill Shanks, The New American Voter (1996), chs. 3-5. Major recent study.
Warren E. Miller, “The Puzzle Transformed: Explaining Declining Turnout,” Political Behavior 14
(1992), 1-43
Raymond E. Wolfinger & Steven J. Rosenstone, Who Votes? (1980). Decisive analysis using an
exceptionally large dataset.
Steven J. Rosenstone & John Mark Hansen, Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America
(1993). Explains change in the USA over time, partly by invoking changes in mobilization.
Stephen Earl Bennett & David Resnick, “The Implications of Nonvoting for Democracy in the United
States,” American Journal of Political Science 34 (1990), 771-802. Interesting comparison of voters with
non-voters.
Jack Citrin, Eric Schickler & John Sides, “What if Everyone Voted? Simulating the Impact of Increased
Turnout in Senate Elections,” American Journal of Political Science 47 (2003), 75-90
Peter F. Nardulli et al., “Voter Turnout in U.S. Presidential Elections: An Historical View and Some
Speculation,” PS: Political Science and Politics 29 (1996), 480-90
Bernard Grofman, Guillermo Owen & Christian Collet, “Rethinking the Partisan Effects of Higher
Turnout: So What’s the Question?” Public Choice 99 (1999), 357-76
J. Eric Oliver & Raymond E. Wolfinger, “Jury Aversion and Voter Registration,” American Political
Science Review 93 (1999), 147-52. Does the threat of showing up on a jury list deter registration?
Benjamin Highton & Raymond E. Wolfinger, “The First Seven Years of the Political Life Cycle,” American
Journal of Political Science 45 (2001), 202-09. Does the adoption of adult roles encourage voter turnout?
31
Benjamin Highton & Raymond E. Wolfinger, “The Political Implications of Higher Turnout,” British
Journal of Political Science 31 (January 2001), 179-92
Elizabeth C. Corey & James C. Garand, “Are Government Employees More Likely to Vote? An Analysis
of Turnout in the 1996 U.S. National Election,” Public Choice 111 (2002), 259-83
Benjamin Highton & Raymond E. Wolfinger, “Estimating the Effects of the National Voter Registration
Act of 1993,” Political Behavior 20 (1998), 79-104
Stephen Knack, “Drivers Wanted: Motor Voter and the Election of 1996,” PS: Political Science and
Politics 32 (1999), 237-43
Raymond E. Wolfinger & Jonathan Hoffman, “Registering and Voting with Motor Voter,” PS: Political
Science and Politics 34 (March 2001), 85-92
Benjamin Highton, “Easy Registration and Voter Turnout,” Journal of Politics 59 (1997), 565-75
C. L. Brians & Bernard Grofman, “Election Day Registration’s Effects on Voter Turnout,” Social Science
Quarterly 82 (2001), 170+
Benjamin Highton, “Voter Registration and Voter Turnout in the United States,” Perspectives on Politics 2
(2004), 507-15. The history of the laws.
Ken Goldstein & Paul Freedman, “Campaign Advertising and Voter Turnout: New Evidence for a
Stimulation Effect,” Journal of Politics 64 (2002), 721-40. Effects of negative ads?
Gerald C. Wright, “Verifying the Common Wisdom: Nonvoters Would Be More Democratic,” 2002 APSA
paper
John R. Petrocik, “The Partisan Bias of Turnout, Again: Insights from House Elections, 1972-1990,” 2003
APSA paper
Christian R. Grose & Antoine Yoshinaka, “The Effect of Citizen Preferences, Party Preferences, and
Institutional Constraints on Voting Rights: An Examination of Felon and Ex-Felon Disfranchisement Laws
in the U.S., 1960-2000,” 2003 APSA paper
Jeff Manza & Christopher Uggen, “Punishment and Democracy: Disenfranchisement of Nonincarcerated
Felons in the United States,” Perspectives on Politics 2 (2004), 491-505
Robert A. Jackson, “Differential Influences on Participation in Midterm Versus Presidential Elections,”
Social Science Journal 37 (2000), 385-402
Alan S. Gerber & Donald P. Green, “The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter
Turnout: A Field Experiment,” American Political Science Review 94 (2000), 653-63
Alan S. Gerber, Donald R. Green & Ron Shachar, “Voting May Be Habit-Forming: Evidence from a
Randomized Field Experiment,” American Journal of Political Science 47 (2003), 540-50
Joshua D. Clinton & John S. Lapinski, “’Targeted’ Advertising and Voter Turnout: An Experimental Study
of the 2000 Presidential Election,” Journal of Politics 66 (2004), 69-96
Michael D. Martinez & Jeff Gill, “The Effects of Turnout on Partisan Outcomes in U.S. Presidential
Elections, 1960-2000,” Journal of Politics 67:4 (November 2005), 1248-74
32
Thomas M. Holbrook & Scott D. McClurg, “The Mobilization of Core Supporters: Campaigns, Turnout,
and Electoral Composition in United States Presidential Elections,” American Journal of Political Science
49:4 (October 2005), 689-703
Seth Charles McKee, “Was Turnout Significantly Higher in the Battleground States for the 2000
Presidential Election?” 2002 APSA paper. Yes, by 4%.
Michael P. McDonald, “Up, Up, and Away! Voter Participation in the 2004 Presidential Election,” The
Forum, online at http://www.bepress.com/forum, 2:4 (2004. A quick 4-page report just after the election.
Martin P. Wattenberg, “Turnout in the 2004 Presidential Election,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 35
(2005), 138-46
Michael D. Martinez & David Hill, “Was the Joke on the Democrats Again? Registration, Turnout, and
Partisan Choice in the 2004 Presidential Election,” 2005 APSA paper
Scott D. McClurg, “Turnout, Registration, and Voter Mobilization Effects in the 2004 Presidential Election:
A County-Level Analysis,” 2005 APSA paper
Paul Allen Beck et al., “Communication and Mobilization in 2004: Intermediaries and Voters in the
American Presidential Contest,” 2005 APSA paper
Alan I. Abramowitz & Walter J. Stone, “The Bush Effect: Polarization, Turnout, and Activism in the 2004
Presidential Election,” 2005 APSA paper
Adam J. Berinsky, “The Perverse Consequences of Electoral Reform in the United States,” American
Politics Research 33:4 (July 2005), 471-91. Procedural reforms don’t bring SES-equalizing results.
Jan E. Leighley & Jonathan Nagler, “Unions, Turnout, and Class Bias in the U.S. Electorate, 1964-2004,”
Journal of Politics 69:2 (May 2007), 430-41. Decline of unions has cut turnout by 3%, but in classcleavage terms only 1%.
James G. Gimpel et al., “Battleground States versus Blackout States: The Behavioral Implications of
Modern Presidential Campaigns,” Journal of Politics 69:3 (August 2007). Battleground state mobilization
brings out lower-SES voters.
Stephen Ansolabehere & David M. Kennedy, “The Introduction of Voter Registration and Its Effect on
Turnout,” 2007 APSA paper
Stephen Ansolabehere & David M. Konisky, “The Introduction of Voter Registration and Its Effect of
Turnout,” New England PSA paper, 2004. Panel study. Uses intro of reg in NY in 1965 and OH in 1977.
A 3 to 4 % effect.
Paul Gronke, Eva Galanes-Rosenbaum & Peter A. Miller, “Early Voting and Turnout,” PS: Political
Science and Politics 40:4 (October 2007), 639-45
Elizabeth M. Addonizio, Donald P. Green & James M. Glaser, “Putting the Party Back into Politics: An
Experiment Testing Whether Election Day Festivals Increase Voter Turnout,” PS: Political Science and
Politics 40:4 (October 2007), 721-27
Alan S. Gerber, Donald P. Green & Christopher W. Larimer, “Social Pressure and Voter Turnout:
Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment,” American Political Science Review 102:1 (February
2008), 33-48
33
James H. Fowler & Christopher T. Dawes, “Two Genes Predict Voter Turnout,” Journal of Politics 70:3
(July 2008), 579-94
James H. Fowler, Laura A. Baker & Christopher T. Dawes, “Genetic Variation in Political Participation,”
American Political Science Review 102:2 (May 2008), 233-48
Jonathan N. Katz, “The Effect of Voter Identification Laws on Turnout,” 2008 APSA paper
Adam J. Berinsky & Gabriel S. Lenz, “Education and Political Participation: Uncovering the Causal Link,”
2008 APSA paper
Lawrence LeDuc, Jon H. Pammett & Heather Bastedo, “The Problem of Young Voters: A Qualitative and
Quantitative Analysis,” 2008 APSA paper
Keith Dowding, Peter C. John & Daniel Rubenson, “Geographic Mobility and Electoral Turnout,” 2008
APSA paper
Marc Meredith & Alan Gerber, “Electoral Institutions, Learning, and Political Participation: The Case of
Vote-By-Mail Balloting,” 2008 APSA paper
Seth C. McKee, “Closeness, Expenditures, and Turnout in the 2000 Presidential Election,” Journal of
Political Marketing 7:1 (2008), 69-91
Appendix A – THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 2000
Gerald M. Pomper, “The 2000 Presidential Election: Why Gore Lost,” Political Science Quarterly 116
(2001), 201-23
D. Sunshine Hillygus & Simon Jackman, “Voter Decision Making in Election 2000: Campaign Effects,
Partisan Activation, and the Clinton Legacy,” American Journal of Political Science 47 (2003), 583-96
Arthur H. Miller & Thomas F. Klobucar, “The Role of Issues in the 2000 Presidential Election,”
Presidential Studies Quarterly 33 (2003), 101-24
Amy Carter, “Did the Gore Campaign Underemphasize the Economy in 2000? Comparing Candidate
Attention with the Economy from 1960 to 2000,” Journal of Political Marketing 5:4 (2006), 1-18
Martin P. Wattenberg, “The Clinton 2000 Effect in Perspective: The Impact of Retiring Presidents on their
Parties’ Chances of Retaining the White House,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 22 (2003), 164-71
Seth C. McKee, “Was Turnout Significantly Higher in the Battleground States in the 2000 Presidential
Election?” 2002 APSA ms. Yes, by 4%.
Series of brief pieces on the 2000 election, American Politics Research 29 (May 2001), 275-328
M. Michael Alvarez & Lisa Garcia Bedolla, “The Foundations of Latino Voter Partisanship: Evidence
from the 2000 Election,” Journal of Politics 65 (2003), 31-49
Rodolfo O. de la Garza & Marissa A. Abrajano, “Get Me to the Polls on Time: Mobilization and Latino
Turnout in the 2000 Election,” 2002 APSA ms. (apparently). Has Table 3 breakdown of Latino nationalorigins subsets by state (although not their voting patterns).
John C. Green et al., “Faith in the Vote: Religiosity and the Presidential Election,” Public Perspective,
March-April 2001, pp. 33-35
34
J. Clark Archer, “The Geography of an Interminable Election: Bush v. Gore, 2000,” Political Geography
21 (2002), 71-77. Maps.
Gerald M. Pomper (ed.), The Election of 2000 (2001). Book of essays.
Michael Nelson, The Elections of 2000 (2001). Another book of essays.
Political staff of the Washington Post, Deadlock: The Inside Story of America’s Closest Election (2001).
A good blow-by-blow account of the 2000 election aftermath.
Martin Merzer and the staff of the Miami Herald, Democracy Held Hostage: The Complete Investigation
of the 2000 Presidential Election including Results of the Independent Recount (2001)
Dan Keating & John Mintz, “From Election Audit, Mostly Uncertainty: Miami Herald Review Shows
Result Hinges on Standard Used in Recount,” Washington Post, 4/5/01, p. A15.
Dan Keating, “Democracy Counts: The Media Consortium Florida Ballot Project,” 2002 APSA paper.
Keating is of the DC Post. An explanation of their post-election project and its results.
Jonathan N. Wand et al., “The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County,
Florida,” American Political Science Review 95 (2001), 793-810
Henry E. Brady et al., “Law and Data: The Butterfly Ballot Episode,” PS: Political Science and Politics
(March 2001), 59-69. Palm Beach County in November 2000
Jonathan I. Leib & Jason Dittmer, “Florida’s Residual Votes, Voting Technology, and the 2000 Election,”
Political Geography 21 (2002), 91-98. Different ways of counting optical scan ballots.
Michael Tomz & Robert P. Van Houweling, “How Does Voting Equipment Affect the Racial Gap in
Voided Ballots?” American Journal of Political Science 47 (2003), 46-60
Guy Stuart, “Databases, Felons, and Voting: Bias and Partisanship of the Florida Felons List in the 2000
Elections,” Political Science Quarterly 119 (2004), 453-75
Michael C. Herron & J.S. Sekhon, “Overvoting and Representation: An Examination of Overvoted
Presidential Ballots in Broward and Miami-Dade Counties,” Electoral Studies 22 (2003), 21-47
Walter Mebane, Jr., “The Wrong Man Is President! Overvotes in the 2000 Presidential Election in
Florida,” Perspectives on Politics 2 (2004), 525-35
Dan Keating, “Lost Votes in N.M. a Cautionary Tale: As Election Day Nears, a Look at Problems in 2000
Shows Fallibility of Machines,” Washington Post, August 22, 2004,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A22536-2004Aug21?language=printer
Kosuke Imai & Gary King, “Did Illegal Overseas Absentee Ballots Decide the 2000 Presidential Election?”
Perspectives on Politics 2 (2004), 537-49
Stephen Knack & Martha Kropf, “Who Uses Inferior Voting Technology?” PS: Political Science and
Politics 35 (2002), 541-48. Post-Florida examination.
Barry Warf, “Voting Technologies and Residual Ballots in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential Elections,”
Political Geography 25:5 (June 2006), 530-56. No overall biases partywise.
35
J. Wilson Mixon, Jr., Amit Sen & E. Frank Stephenson, “Are the Networks Biased? ‘Calling’ States in the
2000 Presidential Election,” Public Choice 118 (2004), 53-59
Barry C. Burden, “Minor Parties in the 2000 Presidential Election,” ch. 11 in H. F. Weisberg & R. G.
Niemi (eds.), Models of Voting in Presidential Elections (2004)
Barry C. Burden, “Minor Parties and Strategic Voting in Recent U.S. Presidential Elections,” Electoral
Studies 24 (2005), 603-18. Nader’s vote shrank in the battleground states in October.
Christopher S. P. Magee, “Third-Party Candidates and the 2000 Presidential Election,” Social Science
Quarterly 84 (2003), 574-95
Neal Allen & Brian J. Fox, “The Roots of Third Party Voting: The 2000 Nader Campaign in Historical
Perspective,” Party Politics 11:5 (2005), 623-37
Randall E. Adkins & Kent A. Kirwan, “What Role Does the ‘Federalism Bonus’ Play in Presidential
Elections?” Publius 32 (2002), 71-90. Made a difference in 1876, 1916, and 2000.
Robert S. Erikson, Joseph Bafumi & Bret Wilson, “Was the 2000 Election Predictable?” PS: Political
Science and Politics 34 (December 2001), 815-19
Morris Fiorina, Samuel Abrams & Jeremy Pope, “The 2000 US Presidential Election: Can Retrospective
Voting Be Saved?” British Journal of Political Science 33 (2003), 163-87
Robert G. Kaiser, “To Researchers, Election Is All Over: Ignoring Polls, Forecasters Say Gore Will Win
Big,” Washington Post, 5/25/00, online
Adam Clymer, “And the Winner Is Gore, If They Got the Math Right,” New York Times, 9/4/00, p. A11
Katherine M. Reynolds, “Panel of Academic Forecasters Still Says Gore Will Beat Bush,” Bloomberg
News, 11/4/00, online
Robert G. Kaiser, “We’re Divided, And We’d Better Get Used to It,” Washington Post, 11/12/00, p. B1.
Robert G. Kaiser, “Political Scientists Offer Mea Culpas for Predicting Gore Win,” Washington Post,
2/9/01, p. A10
James E. Campbell, “Taking Stock of the Forecasts of the 2000 Presidential Election,” American Politics
Research 29 (2001), 275-78
Christopher Wlezien, “On Forecasting the Presidential Vote,” PS: Political Science and Politics 34
(March 2001), 25-31. Gore vs. Bush.
James E. Campbell, “The Referendum that Didn’t Happen: The Forecasts of the 2000 Presidential
Election,” PS: Political Science and Politics 34 (March 2001), 33-38
Thomas M. Holbrook, “Forecasting with Mixed Economic Signals: A Cautionary Tale,” PS: Political
Science and Politics 34 (March 2001), 39-44. Gore vs. Bush.
Christopher Wlezien, “Presidential Election Polls in 2000: A Study in Dynamics,” Presidential Studies
Quarterly 33 (2003), 172-87
Christopher Wlezien & Robert S. Erikson, “The Timeline of Presidential Election Campaigns,” Journal of
Politics 64 (2002), 969-93
36
Kathleen Jamieson & Paul Waldman (eds.), Electing the President, 2000: The Insiders’ View (2003)
Herbert F. Weisberg (ed.), Campaign for President: The Managers Look at 2004 (2006)
Richard Johnston, Michael G. Hagen & Kathleen Hall Jamieson, The 2000 Presidential Election and the
Foundations of Party Politics (2004)
Seth C. McKee, “Closeness, Expenditures, and Turnout in the 2000 Presidential Election,” Journal of
Political Marketing 7:1 (2008), 69-91.
Appendix B – THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIN OF 2004
Paul R. Abramson, John H. Aldrich & David W. Rohde, “The 2004 Presidential Election: The Emergence
of a Permanent Majority?” Political Science Quarterly 120 (2005), 33-57
James E. Campbell, “Why Bush Won the Presidential Election of 2004: Incumbency, Ideology, Terrorism,
and Turnout,” Political Science Quarterly 120 (2005), 219-41. Another overview.
Gerald M. Pomper, “The Presidential Election: The Ills of American Politics After 9/11,” ch. 3 in Michael
Nelson (ed.), The Elections of 2004 (2005). Another overview.
Philip A. Klinkner & Ann Hapanowicz, “Red and Blue Déjà Vu: Measuring Political Polarization in the
2004 Election,” The Forum, online at http://www.bepress.com/forum, 3:2 (2005)
David A. Hopkins, “Geographic Polarization in American Presidential Elections,” MWPSA paper, April
2005.
Barry C. Burden, “An Alternative Account of the 2004 Presidential Election,” The Forum, online at
http://www.bepress.com/forum, 2:4 (2004). Whites and married women did it.
James E. Campbell, “The Presidential Election of 2004: The Fundamentals and the Campaign,” The
Forum, online at http://www.bepress.com/forum, 2:4 (2004)
Alan Abramowitz, “Terrorism, Gay Marriage, and Incumbency: Explaining the Republican Victory in the
2004 Presidential Election,” The Forum, online at http://www.bepress.com/forum, 2:4 (2004)
Gary C. Jacobson, “Polarized Politics and the 2004 Congressional and Presidential Elections,” Political
Science Quarterly 120 (2005), 199-218
David Sutton, “’Living Poor and Voting Rich’ in Appalachia,” Appalachian Journal 32 (2005), 340-51
Herbert F. Weisberg, “The 2004 Pre-Election and Exit Polls: A Total Survey Error Analysis,” MWPSA
conference paper, April 2005
James E. Campbell (ed.), “Assessments of the 2004 Presidential Election Forecasts,” PS: Political Science
and Politics 37 (2005), 23-40. This has brief retrospective assessments by several leading authors.
Kathleen Jamieson (ed.), Electing the President, 2004: The Insiders’ View (December 2005)
The Institute of Politics (KSG), Campaign for President: The Managers Look at 2004 (2006)
James W. Ceaser & Andrew E. Busch, Red over Blue: The Elections and American Politics (2005)
37
Martin P. Wattenberg, “Elections: Turnout in the 2004 Presidential Election,” Presidential Studies
Quarterly 35 (2005), 138-46
Michael P. McDonald, “Up, Up and Away! Voter Participation in the 2004 Presidential Election,” The
Forum, online at http://www.bepress,com/forum, 2:4 (2004)
Michael D. Martinez & David Hill, “Was the Joke on the Democrats Again? Registration, Turnout, and
Partisan Choice in the 2004 Presidential Election,” 2005 APSA paper
Scott D.McClurg, “Turnout, Registration, and Voter Mobilization Effects in the 2004 Presidential Election:
A County-Level Analysis,” 2005 APSA paper
Stephen T. Mockabee, “Religion and Cultural Conflict in the 2004 Election,” 2005 APSA paper
James L. Guth et al., “Religious Mobilization in the 2004 Presidential Election,” 2005 APSA paper
James L. Guth, “Religious Mobilization in the 2004 Presidential Campaign,” listed 2006 APSA paper. This
may be a rework of the already very fine 2005 paper.)
Mark M. Gray, Paul M. Perl & Mary E.Bendyna, “Camelot Only Comes But Once? John F. Kerry and the
Catholic Vote,” 2005 APSA paper
J. Merrill Shanks et al., “Issue Importance in the 2004 Election: The Role of Policy-related Controversies
Concerning Foreign Policy, Traditional Family Values, and Economic Inequality,” 2005 APSA paper
Stuart Elaine Macdonald & George Rabinowitz, “Bush vs. Kerry: Policy Issues in the 2004 U.S.
Presidential Election,” 2005 APSA paper
Paul Allen Beck et al., “Communication and Mobilization in 2004: Intermediaries and Voters in the
American Presidential Contest,” 2005 APSA paper
Alan I. Abramowitz & Walter J. Stone, “The Bush Effect: Polarization, Turnout, and Activism in the 2004
Presidential Election,” 2005 APSA paper
Gary Langer & Jon Cohen, “Voters and Values in the 2004 Election,” Public Opinion Quarterly 69:5
(2005), 744-59
Richard Gunther et al., “Value Cleavages and Partisan Conflict: The 2004 American Presidential Election
in Comparative Perspective,” 2005 APSA paper
Marisa A. Abrajano, R. Michael Alvarez & Jonathan Nagler, “The Hispanic Vote in the 2004 Presidential
Election: Insecurity and Moral Concerns,” 2005 ms available on Nagler website.
Ron Johnston et al., “Disproportionality and Bias in US Presidential Elections: How Geography Helped
Bush Defeat Gore but Couldn’t Help Kerry Beat Bush,” Political Geography 24 (2005), 952-68
special issue of American Review of Politics 26 (Summer & Spring 2005) on the South in the 2004
presidential election. A chapter for each state.
Four short pieces on the 2004 election in PS 39:3 (July 2006):
--Karen M. Kaufmann, “The Gender Gap,” 447-53
--Laura R. Olson & John C. Green, “The Religion Gap,” 455-59
--Jeffrey M. Stonecash, “The Income Gap,” 461-65
--James M. Gimpel & Kimberly A. Karnes, “The Urban-Rural Gap,” 467-72
38
Joseph E. Uscinski, “Too Close to Call? Uncertainty and Bias in Election-Night Reporting,” Social Science
Quarterly 88:1 (March 2007), 51-67
Barry Warf, “Voting Technologies and Residual Ballots in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential Elections,”
Political Geography 25:5 (June 2006), 530-56
Charles L. Prysby, “May the Best Man Win: Perceptions of Candidate Personal Characteristics and the
Presidential Vote in 2004,” 2006 APSA paper
Heinz Brandenburg, “Revisiting the ‘Liberal Media Bias’: A Quantitative Study into Candidate Treatment
by Print and Broadcast Media During the 2004 Presidential Election Campaign,” 2006 APSA paper
Jill Rickershauser, “What Information Matters? Political Prediction Markets and the 2004 Presidential
Campaign,” 2006 APSA paper
Daniel A. Smith, Matthew DeSantis & Jason Kassel, “Same-Sex Marriage Ballot Measures and the 2004
Presidential Election,” State and Local Government Review 38:2 (2006), 78-91
David E. Campbell & J. Quin Monson, “The Religion Card: Gay Marriage and the 2004 Presidential
Election,” Public Opinion Quarterly 72:3 (Fall 2008), 399-419
Laurel Elder & Steven Greene, “The Myth of ‘Security Moms’ and ‘Nascar Dads’: Parenthood, Political
Stereotypes, and the 2004 Election,” Social Science Quarterly 88:1 (March 2007), 1-19. The myth doesn’t
pan out.
Articles from a symposium in Political Behavior 29 (2007:
--Neil Malhotra & Jon R. Krosnick, “Retrospective and Prospective Performance Assessments during the
2004 Election Campaign,” 249-78 (no media priming effects found)
--Christopher Gelpi et al., “Iraq the Vote: Retrospective and Prospective Foreign Policy Judgments on
Candidate Choice and Casualty Tolerance,” 151-74
--Herbert R. Weisberg & Dino P. Christensen, “Changing Horses in Wartime: The 2004 Presidential
Election”
--Helmut Norpoth & Andrew H. Sidman, “Mission Accomplished: The Wartime Election of 2004,” 175-96
--Paul R. Abramson et al., “Fear in the Voting Booth: The 2004 Presidential Election,” 197-220
--Stephen T. Mockabee, “A Question of Authority: Religion and Cultural Conflict in the 2004 Election,”
221-48 (authority scale; religion scale; patriotism scale)
Four books on the 2004 election:
--William Crotty (ed.), A Defining Moment: The Presidential Election of 2004 (2005)
--Kevin J. McMahon et al., Winning the White House (2005)
--Michael Nelson (ed.), The Elections of 2004 (2005)
--Larry Sabato, Divided States of America (2005)
David Karol & Edward Miguel, “The Electoral Cost of War: Iraq Casualties and the 2004 U.S. Presidential
Election,” Journal of Politics 69:3 (August 2007), 633-48. Uses media markets and counties. A 2%
overall effect.
Mark M. Gray, Paul M. Perl & Mary E. Bendyna, “Camelot Only Comes Once? John F. Kerry and the
Catholic Vote,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 36:2 (June 2006), 203-22
Alan I. Abramowitz & Walter J. Stone, “The Bush Effect: Polarization, Turnout, and Activism in the 2004
Presidential Election,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 36:2 (June 2006), 141-54
Ray C. Fair, “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2004 Update,” November 1, 2006.
Available via internet.
39
Ian McAllister, “A War Too Far? Bush, Iraq, and the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election,” Presidential
Studies Quarterly 36:2 (June 2006), 260-80
Mel Martinez & David Hill, “Was the Joke on the Democrats Again? Turnout and Partisan Choice in the
2004 U.S. Election,”American Review of Politics 28 (Summer 2007), 81-95
Kenneth Mulligan, “The ‘Myth’ of Moral Values Voting in the 2004 Presidential Election,” PS: Political
Science and Politics 41:1 (January 2008), 109-14
Charles Prysby, “Perceptions of Candidate Character Traits and the Presidential Vote in 2004,” PS:
Political Science and Politics 41:1 (January 2008), 115-22
Richard Morrill, Larry Knopp & Michael Brown, “Anomalies in Red and Blue: Exceptionalism in
American Political Geography,” Political Geography 26 (2007), 525-553. This is an analysis of counties
that voted the wrong way, so to speak, in the 2004 presidential elections, given their rural-urban makeup.
Philip A. Klinkner, “Mr. Bush’s War: Foreign Policy in the 2004 Election,” Presidential Studies Quarterly
36:2 (June 2006), 281-96. Yes, it was foreign policy that did it. Good evidence.
Marisa A. Abrajano, R. Michael Alvarez & Jonathan Nagler, “The Hispanic Vote in the 2004 Presidential
Election: Insecurity and Moral Concerns,” Journal of Politics 70:2 (April 2008), 368-82
Appendix C – THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS OF 2006:
Michael P. McDonald, “Rocking the House: Competition and Turnout in the 2006 Midterm Election,” The
Forum (The Berkeley Electronic Press), 4:3 (2006), article 4
Philip A. Klinkner & Thomas F. Schaller, “A Regional Analysis of the 2006 Midterms,” The Forum (The
Berkeley Electronic Press), 4:3 (2006), article 9
Alfred G. Cuzan, “The 2006 House Elections: Forecasts and Results,” APSA Legislative Studies Section,
Extension of Remarks, 30:1 (January 2007)
Lara M. Brown, “It’s Good to be an Incumbent: Scandals, Corruption, and the 2006 Midterm Elections,”
APSA Legislative Studies Section, Extension of Remarks, 30:1 (January 2007)
James W. Ceaser & Daniel DiSalvo, “Midterm Elections, Partisan Context, and Political Leadership: The
2006 Elections and Party Alignment,” The Forum (Berkeley online journal) 4:3 (2006), article 11
Jonathan P. Kastellec, Andrew Gelman & Jamie P. Chandler, “Seeking 50% of Seats, Needing More than
50% of Votes: Predicting the Seats-Votes Curve in the 2006 Elections,” manuscript at Columbia
University, October 14, 2006
Jack Pitney, “The [2006] Midterm: What Political Science Should Ask Now,” The Forum (Berkeley online
journal), 4:3 (2006), article 2
Gary C. Jacobson, “Referendum: The 2006 Midterm Congressional Elections,” Political Science Quarterly
122;1 (spring 2007), 1-24
Alan I. Abramowitz, “Constraint, Ideology, and Polarization in the American Electorate: Evidence from the
2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study,” 2007 APSA paper. Lots of ideological constraint.
40
Stephen T. Mockabee & Anand E. Sokhey, “Reconsidering Religiosity: The Social Side of Faith in the
2006 Election,” 2007 APSA paper. Exit poll data. Church-based networks induce discussion etc.
Adam R. Brown & Gary C. Jacobson, “Party, Performance, and Strategic Politicians: The Dynamics of
Elections for Senator and Governor in 2006,” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 8:4 (Winter 2008), 384409. Workout of lots of stuff with various data. Weak standing draws strong challengers, e.g., which in
turn lowers standing…
Christine B. Williams & Girish J. “Jeff” Gulati, “Social Networks in Political Campaigns: Facebook and
the 2006 Midterm Elections,” 2007 APSA paper.
Michael D. Cobb, “Paging Congressional Democrats: It was the Immorality, Stupid,” 2007 APSA paper.
This is very nice. The Foley scandal was specifically costly to the GOP across several levels of office
nationwide. Could be assigned.
Donald P. Haider-Markel & Carol K. Carr, “The Political Fallout of Taking a Stand: The President,
Congress, and the Schiavo Case,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 37:3 (September 2007), 449-67. This
isn’t directly about the 2006 midterm. The S case stuff happened in March 2005. But the GOPers took
what looks like a permanent hit in the polls.
Douglas L. Kriner & Francis X. Shen, “Iraq Casualties and the 2006 Senate Elections,” Legislative Studies
Quarterly 32:4 (November 2007), 507-30
Christian R. Grose & Bruce I. Oppenheimer, “The Iraq War, Partisanship, and Candidate Attributes:
Variation in Partisan Swing in the 2006 U.S. House Elections,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 32:4
(November 2007), 531-57
Scott Sigmund Gartner & Gary M. Segura, “All Politics are Still Local: The Iraq War and the 2006
Midterm Elections,” PS: Political Science and Politics 41:1 (January 2008), 95-100
Jonathan R. Kastellec, Andrew Gelman & Jamie R. Chandler, “Predicting and Dissecting the Seats-Votes
Curve in the 2006 U.S. House Election,” PS: Political Science and Politics 41:1 (January 2008), 139-45
David L. Leal et al., “Latinos, Immigration, and the 2006 Midterm Elections,” PS: Political Science and
Politics 41:2 (April 2008), 309-17
Brian K. Arbour, “Issue Voting in Red and Blue, and Blue and Gray: Regional Differences in the 2006
Election,” 2008 APSA paper
Diana Tracy Cohen, “Tapping the Liberal Blogosphere: Ned Lamont’s 2006 U.S. Senate Campaign,” 2008
APSA paper
Appendix D – WARS AND ELECTIONS:
David R. Mayhew, “Wars and American Politics,” Perspectives on Politics 3:3 (September 2005), 473-93
Rieko Kage, “Fighting Together, Bowling Together: The Long-Term Impact of War on Civic Engagement,”
2007 APSA paper. Data from 13 countries. World War II upticked social capital in many countries. The
level of it correlates with the level of war mobilization.
Andrew E. Busch, Horses in Midstream: U.S. Midterm Elections and Their Consequences, 1894-1998
(1999). Sketches of various midterm elections held during wars.
41
Robert A. Divine, Foreign Policy and U.S. Presidential Elections, 1940-1948 (1974). Very good on these
elections.
Helmut Norpoth, Victor Lange & Michael Morzenti, “War and Politics: The 1944 Election,” 2008 APSA
paper
Helmut Norpoth, Victor Lange & Michael Morzenti, “Voting in Wartime: The 1944 Election,” 2009
MWPSA paper. (may be the same paper as just above; the 2009 edition exists for sure)
Samuel Lubell, The Future of American Politics (1952). Good on the World War II elections.
Samuel Lubell, Revolt of the Moderates (1956). Good on Korea and the election of 1952.
John Mueller, Wars, Presidents and Public Opinion (1973). The relation between rising casualty rates and
falling presidential Gallup ratings, Korea and Vietnam.
Richard A. Brody, Assessing the President: The Media, Public Opinion and Public Support (1991). More
on wars and the presidential Gallup rating.
Larry M. Bartels & John Zaller, “Presidential Vote Models: A Recount,” PS : Political Science and
Politics 34 (March 2001), 9-20. Dummy variables for Korea and Vietnam
Jamie L. Carson et al., “The Impact of National Tides and District-Level Effects on Electoral Outcomes:
The U.S. Congressional Elections of 1962-63,” American Journal of Political Science 45 (2001), 887-98.
Battle casualties during the Civil War.
Timothy Y. C. Cotton, “War and Democracy: Electoral Costs of the Last Five Wars,” Journal of Conflict
Resolution 30:4 (1986), 616-35
Douglas Hibbs, “Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections,” Public Choice 104:1-2 (2000),
149-80
Scott S. Gartner et al., “War Casualties, Policy Positions and the Fate of Legislators,” Political Research
Quarterly 53:3, (2004), 467-77
Rebecca John Cruise & Ronald Keith Gaddie, “War Votes and War Voters: A Research Note to Further
Examine the Electoral Consequences of Voting to Declare War,” APSA paper 2005
Adam J. Berinsky, “Assuming the Costs of War: Events, Elites, and American Public Support for Military
Conflict,” APSA paper 2005
David Karol & Edward Miguel, “The Electoral Cost of War: Iraq Casualties and the 2004 U.S. Presidential
Election,” Journal of Politics 69:3 (August 2007), 633-48. Uses media markets and counties. A 2%
overall effect.
Gary C. Jacobson, “Terror, Terrain, and Turnout: Explaining the 2002 Midterm Elections,” Political
Science Quarterly 118 (2003), 1-22
James E. Campbell, “Why Bush Won the Presidential Election of 2004: Incumbency, Ideology, Terrorism,
and Turnout,” Political Science Quarterly 120:2 (2005), 219-41
Christopher Gelpi et al., “Iraq the Vote: Retrospective and Prospective Foreign Policy Judgments on
Candidate Choice and Casualty Tolerance,” Political Behavior 29 (2007), 151-74
42
Herbert Weisberg & Dino P. Christenson, “Changing Horses in Wartime? The 2004 Presidential Election,”
Political Behavior 29 (2007)
Helmut Norpoth & Andrew H. Sidman, “Mission Accomplished: The Wartime Election of 2004,”
Political Behavior 29 (2007), 175-96
Helmut Norpoth, “To Change or Not to Change Horses: Voting in Wartime,” 2010 MWPSA conference
paper
Paul R. Abramson et al., “Fear in the Voting Booth: The 2004 Presidential Election,” Political Behavior 29
(2007), 197-220
Ian McAllister, “A War Too Far? Bush, Iraq, and the 2004 Presidential Election,” Presidential Studies
Quarterly 36:2 (June 2006), 260-80
Philip A. Klinkner, “Mr. Bush’s War: Foreign Policy in the 2004 Election,” Presidential Studies Quarterly
36:2 (June 2006), 281-96. Yes, it was foreign policy that did it. Good evidence.
Douglas L. Kriner & Francis X. Shen, “Iraq Casualties and the 2006 Senate Elections,” Legislative Studies
Quarterly 32:4 (November 2007), 507-30
Christian R. Grose & Bruce I. Oppenheimer, “The Iraq War, Partisanship, and Candidate Attributes:
Variation in Partisan Swing in the 2006 U.S. House Elections,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 32:4
(November 2007), 531-57
Scott Sigmund Gartner & Gary M. Segura, “All Politics are Still Local: The Iraq War and the 2006
Midterm Elections,” PS: Political Science and Politics 41:1 (January 2008), 95-100
Appendix E – PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATIONS:
Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel & John Zaller, The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations
Before and After Reform (2008). This new book is the leading general work on the subject.
Larry M. Bartels, Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice (1988)
Barbara Norrander, “The End Game in Post-Reform Presidential Nominations,” Journal of Politics 62
(November 2000), 99-1013
Barbara Norrander, “The Attrition Game: Initial Resources, Initial Contests and the Exit of Candidates
During the US Presidential Primary Season,” British Journal of Political Science 36 (July 2006), 487-507
David A. Hopkins, “Revisiting the Invisible Primary: Presidential Nominations in the 21 st Century,” 2008
APSA paper
Wayne P. Steger, “Retrocasting and Forecasting: An Analysis of Presidential Nomination Predictive
Models, 1980-2008,” 2008 APSA paper
Laurence Horton, “Prairie Progressives: The Iowa Democratic Party Presidential Precinct Caucuses, 19722004,” 2006 MWPSA paper
David A. Hopkins, “The Rise and Fall of Howard Dean and the Dynamics of Contemporary Presidential
Nominations,” 2006 APSA paper
43
William G. Mayer, “Voting in Presidential Primaries: What We Can Learn from Three Decades of Exit
Polling,” 2006 APSA paper.
D. Jason Berggren, “Two Parties, Two Types of Nominees: Two Paths to Winning a Presidential
Nomination, 1972-2004,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 37:2 (June 2007). Asymmetry. GOP is
predictable and lockstep. Democrats sometimes have unknowns surge to the top.
Wayne P. Steger, “Who Wins Nominations and Why? An Updated Forecast of the Presidential Primary
Vote,” Political Research Quarterly 60:1 (March 2007), 91-99. Reworks the Cohen/Zaller data.
Dean McSweeney, “The Front-Runner Falls: The Failure of Howard Dean,” Party Politics 13 (2007), 109126
David Redlawsk, Daniel Bowen & Caroline Tolbert, “Comparing Caucus and Registered Voter Support for
the 2008 Presidential Candidates in Iowa,” PS: Political Science and Politics 41:1 (January 2008), 129-38.
Jeffrey S. Peake & Melissa K. Miller, “Presidential Primaries and the News: Coverage of the 2008
Nomination Campaign,” 2008 APSA paper
Christopher C. Hull, “Why They Won Iowa: Inside the 2008 Caucus,” 2008 APSA paper
Dante J. Scala & Andrew E. Smith, “What It Took: Resource Allocation and New Hampshire Momentum
in the 2008 Primary,” 2008 APSA paper
David P. Redlawsk, Caroline J. Tolbert & Todd Donovan, “Why Iowa? Sequential Elections, the Caucuses
and the Presidential Nomination Process,” 2008 APSA paper
Lynn Vavreck & Simon P. Jackman, “Dynamics of the 2008 Election: Results from the Cooperative
Campaign Analysis Project,” 2008 APSA paper
Sean M. Theriault, Patrick Hickey & Adam Myers, “First-in-the-Nation in Proficiency or by Providence?
Iowa, New Hampshire and the Presidential Primary Process,” 2008 APSA paper
Antoinette Pole, “YouTube, iTube, WeAllTube: Video Campaigning and the 2008 Presidential Primaries,”
2008 APSA paper
Dennis Goldford, “Musical Chairs: The Iowa Caucuses in the 2008 Presidential Nomination Process,”
2008 APSA paper
Jeffrey S. Peake & Melissa K. Miller, “Presidential Primaries and the News: Coverage of the 2008
Nomination Campaign,” 2008 APSA paper
Wayne P. Steger (ed.), “Special Edition: The Presidential Nomination Process,” American Review of
Politics 28 (Winter 2007-08). A series of pieces.
Brian Knight & Nathan Schiff, “Momentum and Social Learning in Presidential Primaries,” March 2008 ms
Richard Johnston & Michael G. Hagen, “Causes and Consequences of Crossover Voting in Presidential
Primaries,” 2004 MWPSA paper (data on 2000, notably on the open primary in Michigan)
Caroline Tolbert & Peverill Squire (eds.), “Reforming the Presidential Nomination Process,” PS: Political
Science and Politics 42:1 (January 2009), 27-79. Several short pieces on e.g. media, Iowa, process,
alternatives.
44
Alan Siaroff, “How Barack Obama’s Votes Beat Hillary Clinton’s Votes in the 2008 Democratic
Presidential Contest: Not Malapportionment, But Turnout Variation and the Florida Effect,” The Forum
7:2 (2009), Article 4 (Berkeley Electronic Press)
Travis N. Ridour, Brandon Rottinhaus & Nathan Hosey, “Following the Rules? Candidate Strategy in
Presidential Primaries,” Social Science Quarterly 90:4 (December 2009), 777-95
Appendix F – THE MEDIA:
Riccard Puglisi, “Being the New York Times: The Political Behaviour of a Newspaper,” MIT manuscript,
March 3, 2006. Available online.
Stefano DellaVigna & Ethan Kaplan, “The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting,” March 30, 2006
manuscript. Available online.
Jonathan S. Morris, “Slanted Objectivity? Perceived Media Bias, Cable News Exposure, and Political
Attitudes,” Social Science Quarterly 88:3 (September 2007), 707-28. FOX has a different audience who
have different views.
Tawnya J. Adkins Covert & Philo C. Wasburn, “Measuring Media Bias: A Content Analysis of Time and
Newsweek Coverage of Domestic Social Issues, 1975-2000,” Social Science Quarterly 88:3 (September
2007), 690-706. Little bias, when compared with National Review and Progressive.
Vincent James Strickler & Katie Reeves, “A Search for Ideological Identification Bias in Media Coverage
of the United States Congress, 1991-2000,” 2007 APSA paper. Good references re journalists’ bias.
Empirical result: CBS Evening News applied the conservative label to C senators more than it the liberal
label to L senators.
Stephen Ansolabehere, Rebecca Lessen & James M. Snyder, Jr., “The Orientation of Newspaper
Endorsements in U.S. Elections, 1940-2002,” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 1 (2006), 393-404.
GOP used to hog the newspaper endorsements, now it’s more even. Incumbents are endorsed much more
than they used to be.
David Pritchard, FCC Media Ownership Working Group, Viewpoint Diversity in Cross-Owned Newspapers
and Television Stations: A Study of News Coverage of the 2000 Presidential Campaign (September 2002).
Short piece. Ten media areas. Shows that common ownership of media outlets in a city doesn’t lead to a
common political slant in coverage.
Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, “Media Bias and Reputation,” Sept 14, 2005. Available online.
Brian Knight, “Media Bias and Influence: Evidence from Newspaper Endorsements,” Yale American
Politics Workshop, September 16, 2009
Martin Gilens, Lynn Vavreck & Martin Cohen, “The Mass Media and the Public’s Assessments of
Presidential Candidates, 1952-2000,” Journal of Politics 69:4 (November 2007), 1160-75. More issue
connection, less character assessment as key, factual knowledge holds up.
Kevin Jay Wallsten, “Web 2.0 and the Mainstream Media: How Facebook, MySpace and YouTube
Popularity Drive Media Coverage,” 2008 APSA paper
Heinz Brandenburg, “Revisiting the ‘Liberal Media Bias’: A Quantitative Study into Candidate Treatment
by Print and Broadcast Media During the 2004 Presidential Election Campaign,” 2006 APSA paper
John Zaller, “Rules of Press Coverage in Presidential Elections, 1948-1992,” 1995 APSA conference paper
45
Joseph E. Uscinski, “Too Close to Call? Uncertainty and Bias in Election-Night Reporting,” Social Science
Quarterly 88:1 (March 2007), 51-67. Says GOP was discriminated against on election night in 2000, but
not in 2004.
Tim Groeling, “Who’s The Fairest of Them All? An Empirical Test for Partisan Bias on ABC, CBS, NBC,
and Fox News,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 38:4 (December 2008), 631-57
Diana C. Mutz, “How the Mass Media Divide Us,” ch. 5 in Pietro S. Nivola & David W. Brady (eds.), Red
and Blue Nation, Vol 1 (2006)
Markus Prior, Post-Broadcast Democracy: How Media Choice Increases Inequality in Political
Involvement and Polarizes Elections (2007)
Appendix G - DIVIDED VS. UNIFIED PARTY CONTROL OF THE GOVERNMENT
Kyle L. Saunders, Alan I. Abramowitz & Jonathan Williamson, “A New Kind of Balancing Act: Electoral
Certainty and Ticket-Splitting in the 1996 and 2000 Presidential Elections,” Political Research Quarterly
58 (2005), 69-78
Barry C. Burden & David C. Kimball, Why Americans Split Their Tickets: Campaigns, Competition, and
Divided Government (2002)
Matthew S. Shugart, “The Electoral Cycle and Institutional Sources of Divided Presidential Government,”
American Political Science Review 89 (1995), 327-43. In other presidential systems as well as the USA.
Very illuminating.
Holger Lutz Kern & Jens Hainmueller, “Electoral Balancing, Divided Government, and ‘Midterm’ Loss in
German Elections,” Journal of Legislative Studies 12:2 (June 2006), 297-312. Also very illuminating.
Morris P. Fiorina, “An Era of Divided Government,” Political Science Quarterly 107 (1992), 387-410
Richard Born, “Split-Ticket Voters, Divided Government, and Fiorina’s Policy-Balancing Model,”
Legislative Studies Quarterly 19 (1994), 95-129. Includes a response by Fiorina, then one by Born.
John R. Petrocik & Joseph Doherty, “The Road to Divided Government: Paved Without Intention,” ch. 4
in Peter F. Galderisi (ed.), Divided Government (1996)
Lee Sigelman et al., “Vote Choice and the Preference for Divided Government: Lessons of 1992,”
American Journal of Political Science 41 (July 1997), 879-94. Do voters “balance”?
Richard Born, “Policy-Balancing Models and the Split-Ticket Voter, 1972-1996,” American Politics
Quarterly 28 (2000), 131-162. The balancing idea works for the 1996 election.
Charles E. Smith, Jr., “Party Balancing and Voting for Congress in the 1996 Election,” American Journal of
Political Science 43 (1999), 737-64. Again, balancing works for 1996.
Thomas M. Carsey & Geoffrey C. Layman, “Policy Balancing and Preferences for Party Control of
Government,” Political Research Quarterly 57 (2004), 541-50. Yes, it works if you do complex
distinguishing of data.
Paul Frymer, “Ideological Consensus within Divided Party Government,” Political Science Quarterly 109
(1994), 287-311. Voters can vote simultaneously GOP for president but Democratic for conservative
Democratic congressional candidates.
46
Paul Frymer, Thomas P. Kim & Terri L. Bimes, “Party Elites, Ideological Voters, and Divided
Government,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 22 (1997), 195-216
PS symposium on divided party control, 24 (December 1991), 634-57
Bruce I. Oppenheimer, “Split Party Control of Congress, 1981-86: Exploring Electoral and Apportionment
Explanations,” American Journal of Political Science 33 (1989), 653-69
Frances E. Lee & Bruce I. Oppenheimer, “Senate Apportionment: Competitiveness and Partisan
Advantage,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 22 (February 1997), 3-24
James E. Campbell, Cheap Seats: The Democratic Party’s Advantage in U.S. House Elections (1996)
John B. Gilmour & Paul Rothstein, “Early Republican Retirement: A Cause of Democratic Dominance in
the House of Representatives,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 18 (1993), 345-65
John T. Pothier, “The Partisan Bias in Senate Elections,” American Politics Quarterly 12 (1984), 89+
Thomas L. Brunell, “Partisan Bias in U.S. Congressional Elections, 1952-1996: Why the Senate Is Usually
More Republican than the House of Representatives,” American Politics Quarterly 27 (1999), 316-37
Paul A. Beck et al., “Patterns and Sources of Ticket Splitting in Subpresidential Voting,” American
Political Science Review 86 (1992), 916-28
Barry C. Burden & David C. Kimball, “A New Approach to the Study of Ticket Splitting,” American
Political Science Review 92 (September 1998), 533-44
Raymond H. Scheele, “Split-Tickets and Divided Government: An Analysis of the 1996 and 2000 Ballots
in Middletown,” 2003 APSA paper
Todd G. Shields & Chi Huang, “Split Ticket Voting in the 2000 Presidential Election,” 2003 APSA paper
Michael Mintrom & Howard Scarrow, “Do American Voters Favor Divided Government?” 1993 APSA
conference paper.
Dean Lacy & Philip Paolino, “Downsian Voting and the Separation of Powers,” American Journal of
Political Science 42 (1998), 1180-99
Bernard Grofman, “Downs and Two-Party Convergence,” Annual Review of Political Science 7 (2004), 2546. An assessment of reasons by parties do not in fact converge as much as you might expect.
Helmut Norpoth, “Divided Government and Economic Voting,” Journal of Politics 63 (May 2001), 414-35.
Does voter reward-and-punish behavior differ according to conditions of party control?
47