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Systematic Soccer Betting Selections Service
This document describes the opportunity available with betting on football (soccer) via selections
identified and supplied by Systematic Soccer. The selections are based on betting on the Asian Handicap
and Over/Under 2.5 goals markets in six European soccer leagues; English Premier League, English
Championship, Scottish Premier League, Spanish La Liga, Dutch Eredivise and German Bundesliga. An
explanation of the Asian Handicap and Over/Under 2.5 goals betting markets is provided in the
appendix. Selections are identified using a range of complex statistical models, some of which have been
developed by the staff from Systematic Soccer.
Systematic Soccer’s selections have been proofed by the Secret Betting Club proofing service during the
2011/2012 season and realised a total profit of 23.9 points from 504 bets. The average bet size was just
less than 1 point, giving a Return on Investment of 5.1%. Assuming an initial bank of 50 points (which is
sufficient for the low variance in these types of bets), the return on capital would have been 47.8%. This
was achieved from a variable staking plan such that stakes were made at 0.5, 1, 1.5 or 2 points. A plot of
how the net bank position varied during the season is shown below. With a slow start being followed by
a run of disappointing bet outcomes, things improved significantly and finished the season strongly.
The service will be formerly launched for the first time in 2012/2013, with bet selections being provided
from November through to the end of the season.
The above profit analysis was based on the maximum odds available across the bookmakers listed on
Odds Checker, and clients will be advised which bookmakers are currently offering the best odds at the
time selections are emailed to them. Also, since this typically involves several bookmakers offering
maximum odds, and also the high liquidity that exists in these markets (due to their popularity in Asia),
we anticipate no problems with clients getting on bets of £500 or more per selection.
Whilst the above profit analysis was based on maximum odds, these can potentially be increased by
looking for higher odds on the home win market when the handicap is -0.5 as these bets are the same
but the home win market can often offer slightly better odds. This also applies to looking for higher odds
on the away win market when the handicap is +0.5. In addition, higher odds on the 0 handicap can also
sometimes be achieved on the “draw no bet” market which allows another further increase the in the
potential odds available. Clients will be advised to bet on these alternative markets where the odds are
more favourable.
The weekend selections, typically covering fixtures taking place on Saturday and Sunday, will normally
be emailed to clients on a Friday afternoon. This may also include the occaisional slection on a Friday
evening (e.g. in the Eredivise or Bundesliga) or Monday evening (e.g. in the Premier League or La Liga).
The Saturday (and Friday if relevant) selections will be emailed at 4pm followed by the Sunday (and
Monday if relevant) at 5pm. This is to allow time for clients to concentrate on posting the Saturday (and
Friday) best first. The midweek selections, typically covering fixtures taking place on Tuesday and
Wednesday, will normally be emailed to clients on a Monday afternoon at 5pm. There may be
variations on this, such as when there is a full programme of fixtures on a Staurday and then again on a
Monday. When selections are posted, clients will also be informed when to expect the next set of
selections. The weekend selctions typically consist of between 10 and 15 selections over the weekend
with the midweek selections varying from just one to approximately five or six selections t most.
A typical mailing of selections will look as follows:
Premier League Asian Handicap Selections
(Bet 2 points for home selections and 1 point for away selections)
Date
Kick Off Home Team Away Team Selection
Min Odds to Bet Best Odds Avail.
21/04/2012 15:00 Fulham
Wigan
Fulham -0.75 (-0.5&-1)
1.788
2.15
21/04/2012 15:00 Newcastle Stoke
Newcastle -0.75 (-0.5&-1)
1.895
1.95
Bookmaker(s)
BETVICTOR 188BET
bet365
Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goals Selections
(Bet 0.5 points)
Date
Kick Off Home Team Away Team Selection
22/04/2012 16:00
Wolves
Man City
Under 2.5 goals
Bookmaker(s)
WilliamHill
Min Odds to Bet Best Odds Avail.
2.576
3
The annual fee for the service will be £700 (or part thereof for clients joining after November) payable in
advance at the start of November. Alternatively subscribers can pay the fee in two equal instalments of
£375; one at the start of November and one at the start of February. If the service realises a profit of
profit of 1 point or less then the full fee paid by the client will be refunded. If the service realises a profit
of 2 points or less then one-third of the fee paid by the client will be refunded. If the service realises a
profit of 3 points or less then one-third of the fee paid by the client will be refunded. (Note that these
refunds are based on a client subscribing for the full season and will be reduced proportionaly for clients
subscribing for less than the full season).
Appendix: Explanation of Asian Handicap and Over/Under Goals Markets
The main advantage of betting on the Asian Handicap and Over/Under goal markets in football are
mainly related to the fact that there are only two possible outcomes and both outcomes are usually
assessed as being reasonably equally likely to occur. This has the attractive property that long losing
runs are much less likely than with other forms of betting. This also means that the variability in the
profit/loss from one season to the next is potentially much lower, making the risk of an overall loss in
anyone season lower. Hence they offer a lower risk betting investment alternative. They do however
offer a lower overall rate of return as a result. In addition, it is quite common for the over-round on the
AH markets to be lower compared to all other betting markets in football.
Asian Handicap Betting
Asian Handicap betting is a form of soccer betting which is very popular in Asia (hence the name). One
team being given a “handicap” means that the other team receives a “virtual head start”. Asian
Handicaps are designed to eliminate the possibility of a draw in a Soccer match, reducing the match to
only two possible outcomes; home win or away win. They also allow the bookmaker/market to
determine handicaps so that the home bet or away bet are approximately equally likely.
There are essentially two types of handicap; half goal (0.5, 1.5, 2.5 etc) and whole goal (0,1,2 etc). In the
case of a half-goal handicap, there is always a clear winner as it’s not possible to score half a goal. In the
case of a whole goal handicap, if the result is level after the handicap is taken into consideration, then all
stakes are refunded. A zero goal handicap effectively means ‘Draw – No Bet’ and so unless there is a
winner in the match all stakes are refunded.
Example:
Man Utd were due to play Man City on 23rd October 2011. Man Utd being the home team were slight
favourites to win and so a half goal handicap for Man Utd was considered by the bookmaker/market to
make the two teams reasonably even. Hence the Asian Handicap market where the home win and away
win are closest to evens was that with Man Utd handicapped by a half goal. To illustrate this, the Asian
Handicap odds from Victor Chandler for this fixture as at 17th October were as follows:
The team who scores the most with the handicap applied is deemed the winner. For example, if you
back Man Utd to beat Man City with a handicap of -0.5 at the above odds of 2.06, then to win your bet
Man Utd must win the match (by 1 or more goals). You lose the bet if Man City win or it’s a draw.
Note that a handicap of 0 and -0.5 was also available in the above example. This handicap is actually a
combination of a whole goal and a half-goal handicap (0 & -0.5). These bets are sometimes referred to
as “Quarter-Goal Handicaps”. In this case, the stake is divided for you by the bookmaker between a bet
on the zero handicap and a bet on the half-goal handicap. For example, if you back Man Utd for £1,000
to beat Man City with a handicap of -0 & -0.5, then you have two separate £500 bets (both at odds of
1.77 in the example) of Man Utd 0 and Man Utd -0.5. Hence the result of this bet would be as follows:



If Man Utd win by 1 goal or more, both bets win;
If the game is drawn, then the -0.5 handicap bet loses but the 0 handicap bet is void/refunded;
If Man Utd loses, then both bets lose.
Over/Under Goals Betting
Betting on the over/under goals markets means that you are betting that the total goals in a game will
be under or over some set number. For example if you bet on under 2.5 goals then you win the bet if the
total goals scored in the game is less than this, i.e. only 0, 1 or 2 goals are scored in total. If 3 goals or
more are scored then you lose the bet. You could of course choose instead to have bet on over 2.5
goals.
It is also possible to bet on over/under “whole” goals, such as over or under 2 goals. In this case, if you
bet on there being under 2 goals then you win the bet if there are 0 or 1 goals scored in total. If 2 goals
are scored in total then all stakes are refunded, whereas if there were 3 or more goals then you would
lose the bet.
You can also bet on over/under “quarter” goals, such as under 2.25 goals. In this case, like quarter goal
handicaps in Asian handicap betting, the stake is divided for you by the bookmaker between a bet on
under 2 goals and a bet on under 2.5 goals. For example, if you bet £1,000 on under 2.25 then you have
two separate £500 bets and the result of this bet would be as follows:



If 0 or 1 goals are scored in total then both bets win;
If 2 goals are scored then the under 2.5 goals bet wins and the under 2 goals bet is
void/refunded;
If 3 or more goals are scored then both bets lose.