Download 中国生产法GDP、支出法GDP、投入产出表之间的内在联系

Inter-relationship Between China’s Input-Ouput
Estimation, production-based GDP and
Expenditure-based GDP
Department of National Accounts, NBS
PENG Zhilong
China started it’s GDP estimation from production side in 1985, GDP estimation from
expenditure side in 1992, and input-output estimation in 1987 (which had started been
before, but it was in 1987 that NBS began to compile I-O table formally). The three
accounts have been greatly improved through years of efforts, data source is getting
more richful and accounting methods is becoming increasingly normative, which
could provide more and more information. However, an inevitable outstanding
question is that the data source and measurement of these accounts are lack of close
inter-relationship, and the accounting contents appear to be independent with each
other in practice, therefore it is difficult to guarantee the consistency of the results.
I. The relationship between input-output estimation and GDP at production and
expenditure approach
1. What are the contents of input-output survey?
I-O survey targets at major products of enterprises and at enterprises or corporations
for service industry, which belong to a kind of major survey on the whole. There are
several structures contained in the survey, including：the structure of intermediate
input of products (enterprises or corporations)；the structure of value-added (the
proportion of depreciation, compensation of employees, net production tax and
operating surplus)；the structure of household consumption；the structure of fixed
capital formation; the structure of inventory; and the structure of imports and exports.
2、The characteristics of input-output table compiling
China’s I-O table uses gross output value (output) and value-added by industries (94
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industries) in GDP as the level in the first and third quadrant of I-O table respectively,
then calculate each sub-item of intermediate input and value-added with the structure
data obtained from I-O survey. NBS uses household consumption, government
consumption, gross fixed capital formation, changes of inventory, imports and exports
in expenditure GDP as the level in the second quadrant of I-O table, then combining
with the structure data obtained from I-O survey to determine each column vector of
final use.
For example：The intermediate input JI of industry J and corresponding gross
output value are obtained from I-O survey, in which JI   JI1 JI 2
could derive the intermediate input structure by
JI n  , thus we
JI
, and the value-added structure
JX
could be calculated directly using survey information, that is JV   JV1 JV2
JVn  .
We could find gross output value JXT and value-added JVT in GDP, therefore the
intermediate input of industry J could be derived by JXT 
JI
, similarly, the
JX
value-added vector of industry J could be calculated by JVT  JV . The calculation
of data in the second quadrant operates the same.
Obviously, at present, China’s I-O survey and I-O table measurement are conducted
after GDP estimation at production and expenditure approach, then use gross output
value (output) and value-added in production-based GDP, combining with household
consumption, government consumption, gross fixed capital formation, changes of
inventory and imports and exports in expenditure-based GDP to determine the main
aggregates in I-O table, while I-O survey just provides some structure ratios which are
used as estimating base but not the base for GDP accounting. Further more, I-O
survey just captures some small structure ratios, such as the internal-structure of
intermediate consumption and value-added. According to the current relationship
between GDP and I-O survey or I-O table, it is apparently that GDP serves I-O table
compiling and related data from GDP turn into the control data of corresponding part
in I-O table, rather than I-O survey or I-O table serves GDP estimation and creates
certain control data for GDP estimation.
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II. The relationship between GDP at production approach and GDP at
expenditure approach
China’s production-based GDP is not the sense of GDP at production approach in
deed. Actually, except agriculture and industry, other industries’ value-added are
estimated using income approach (distribution approach).
1. Annual Estimation
There are three aspects where GDP at production and expenditure approach have
correspondence: First, government (administrative and institutional units) output and
government expenditure, which use the same data source in their estimation, that is
‘Final Annual Accounts of administrative and institutional units’ compiled by
Ministry of Finance；Second, owner occupied dwellings, which is not only treated as
output of corresponding sub-industry in production-based GDP, but also as part of
household consumption in expenditure-based GDP. In practice, the part of owner
occupied dwellings is added to the urban and rural household consumption; Third,
FISIM, certain method is used to identify the part of FISIM serving for household,
and plus it to household consumption.
2. Quarterly Estimation
In quarterly GDP estimation, nearly no relationship is indicated between the data from
production and expenditure approach. In quarterly GDP estimation from production
side, the following formula is used massively to calculate the value-added by
industries indirectly: value-added by industries = base number of the same period last
year × growth rate of the representative operational indicator of the industry ×
elasticity ratio. In which, elasticity ratio = growth rate of value-added of the industry
last year / growth rate of the representative operational indicator of the industry.
III. Difficulties and doubts
1. The relationship between specific statistics and GDP Estimates
In GDP estimation, we usually need to use a lot of specific statistics, which are
compiled and published by specific statistical departments，for example, statistics of
gross output value and value-added in agriculture, statistics of
industrial
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value-added, statistics of gross output value in construction, statistics of sales output
value in wholesale and retail trades, statistics of operating income in hotel and
catering services, statistics of investment in fixed assets, statistics of total retail sales
of commodities, statistics of imports and exports. If use these data directly in GDP
estimation (which were required to be adjusted with GDP coverage before), both
gross data and growth rate would appear great discrepancy between production-based
GDP and expenditure-based GDP. Under such circumstance, how to treat the
relationship between GDP accounting and specific statistics? Whether we could do
man-made adjustments with specific statistics? For example, multiplying specific
statistics by a ratio unequal to 1？
2.How to apply the information of I-O table and I-O survey to annual and quarterly
GDP calculations?
3. How to use the information of I-O table and I-O survey to control the discrepancy
appears between the production-based GDP and expenditure-based GDP?
4. How to keep the consistency of the deflators between GDP production and
expenditure approach?
5. Is there any perfect method to evaluate the reliability of GDP growth rate, such as
single-indicator evaluation and multi-indicators evaluation?
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