Download Walter lam Political Science 02/19/06 CEO

Walter lam
Political Science
02/19/06
CEO
Section A
According to the International Relations Simulation Model, Taiwan’s Exports,
GDP, and Government Expenditures are expected to increase dramatically within the
next couple of decades. Exports are expected to increase from approx. 130 billion in
2000 to a little over 300 billion in 2020. GDP is expected to increase from 280 billion to
roughly 680 billion in the same period. Finally government expenditures are expected to
increase from just a little over 90 billion to about 300 billion in the same period.
These three projected scenarios illustrate the potential increase in Taiwan’s
economic, political, and military strength. As the CEO of Taiwan, I believe that these
factors are crucial to the overall development of Taiwan’s domestic and international
policies. Additionally, these will be important factors to keep in mind when developing
policies to react to other countries concerns.
For example, according to Maslow’s basic needs pyramid, one of the most
fundamental needs of any society is physiological needs, which translates to survival
when viewed in terms of international relations. Taiwan’s phenomenal increase in GDP
will allow its people to not only meet the survival needs but to thrive, thus enabling it to
move up the hierarchy of needs. Its dramatic increase in exports will allow Taiwan to
meet the second need of security due to the fact that increased exports will provide the
country with a strong economy, which in turn will bring stability. Finally the rapid
increase in government expenditures will enable the country’s government to achieve
greater status and allow a more visible role in the international community by way of
increased military prowess.
GDP (Billions)
Export (Billions)
Section B
According to the online wikipedia website, Taiwan’s GDP has seen average
annual growth of eight percent for the past thirty years. This is a direct result of a
capitalistic economy, and also as a result of the government privatizing large banks and
industrial firms. It is interesting then to point out that “around 50,000 Taiwanese
businesses are established in mainland China. Taiwan is one of the largest foreign
investors in mainland China.” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan#Economy).
This illustrates the two conflicting aspects of Taiwan’s relationship with China.
Using Easton’s Political System it can be seen that China provides Taiwan with Support
in regards to trade and economic growth. Yet at the same time China is also the biggest
threat to Taiwan’s security in regards to the Demands of the Communist Party’s political
stand on a “one China” policy.
In the year 2005, “China even maliciously enacted the so-called anti-separation
law, which authorized the military to use non-peaceful means and other necessary
measures against Taiwan. This unilateral attempt to change the status quo has not only
seriously threatened cross-strait security, but has also constituted unreasonable and
relentless suppression of Taiwan in the international arena. These facts have fully proved
the nature of China’s military aggression. China’s attempts and preparations to
maliciously alter the status quo make it the greatest threat and a saboteur of peace across
the Taiwan Strait and in the East Asian region.” (http://english.www.gov.tw/eGov/index.jsp?categid=40&recordid=91241).
The aggressive nature of China’s policy towards Taiwan will no doubt make it
extremely difficult for Taiwan to form any successful political policies in regards to
attaining complete independence for the country’s 22 million inhabitants. However,
there remains a slight possibility of achieving such a goal if Taiwan is able to strengthen
its political ties with the U.S. and Britain, two countries that recognize Taiwan as a
democratic and sovereign nation. Also the fact that Taiwan became a member of the
World Trade Organization on January 1, 2002, will only help to strengthen its ties with
the international community.
Furthermore, an increase in military expenditures will help enable the country to
defend itself against the possibility of China using military force to invade Taiwan.
However, it must be considered that such a policy, if drafted by Taiwan will create a
hostile political environment between the two countries. There is a great possibility that
China will view these policies as a threat, thereby increasing the tension between the two
countries.
Nevertheless, the rights of the people of Taiwan to establish a separate and
independent country from China cannot and should not be denied to them. After all, this
is the main principle of Article 1 of Taiwan’s Constitution. “The Republic of China,
founded on the Three Principles of the People, shall be a democratic republic of the
people, to be governed by the people and for the people.”
( http://www.president.gov.tw/en/)
Section C
Published: February 28, 2006
Source: Associated Press
On Tuesday, February 28, 2006 President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan invited
members of the international media to discuss Taiwan’s reaction to China’s antiseparation law and to announce a new government policy in response to this law. More
than 60 foreign correspondents stationed in Taiwan were on hand to hear about the
government's position and opinions.
President Chen declared, “In enacting the law, China unilaterally defines that the
only tolerable outcome of the cross-Strait negotiation is unification, and any outcome
other than unification is subject to punishment. The law will legalize the use of force by
China against Taiwan and its people and further jeopardize cross-strait relations.”
Chen called for a million people to take to the streets on March 21, 2006, in a
parade for "Safeguarding Taiwan with Democracy and Peace." Chen stated that the
demonstration "represents a peaceful and rational vocalization by the people of Taiwan."
In addition to this demonstration, Chen has announced a new Taiwan government policy
in direct response to the passage of the anti-separation law by China.
President Chen confirmed that Taiwan’s government would soon draft a
referendum to declare Taiwan’s independence, and put the referendum to vote by the
people of Taiwan. "The 2,000-plus delegates at China's National People's Congress
cannot vote on the destiny of the 23 million people of Taiwan. Only the great people of
Taiwan can make decisions about Taiwan's future."
Although Chen acknowledged that tension between China and Taiwan is expected
to further escalate he asserts that China’s aggressive policies towards Taiwan will not
cease even through repeated efforts by Taiwan to maintain stability and peace between
the two countries. Chen expects that Taiwan will receive the full support of the
international community, especially from its two main allies, the U.S. and Britain in
regards to the new referendum on independence.
Chen stated that the referendum is expected to be drafted and completed by the
end of March and he expects to have the issue placed before the people of Taiwan in the
early month of April. The associated press will maintain full coverage of this crisis as it
unfolds.
Sources
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/tw.html#Govt
http://english.www.gov.tw/e-Gov/index.jsp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan#Economy
http://english.www.gov.tw/e-Gov/index.jsp?categid=40&recordid=91241
http://www.president.gov.tw/en/
Farrah Chiang
February 24, 2006
Political Science 315
Chief Trade Officer
SECTION A
Since my position is Chief Trade Officer of Taiwan, I feel that these graphs are very
important factors to consider when developing policies and reacting to other countries.
According to Lasswell theory, Taiwan has applied or obviously considered both welfare
and deference values into their policy-making decision. It is shown by how Taiwan has
gradually transformed itself from an underdeveloped, agricultural island to one of the
world’s major international traders, becoming the world’s 17th largest economy. Taiwan
has joined many government and non-government organizations, promoting their public
relation, and therefore, building good trade relations with other countries. Tremendous
prosperity on the island has been accompanied by economic and social stability.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) As a member of the World Trade Organization
(since 2002) many doors and opportunities have opened up for Taiwan. Taiwan is able to
access more resources producing and specializing in many products in low costs that they
are able to export to the world. With more barriers reduced and governments more
openly with the idea of conducting business with the rest of the world, the future trends
will seem to continue to rise. Exhibit 1 shows me that Taiwan’s exports appear to be
growing steadily over the past few years. By seeing this trend can help my position look
into which trading partners are contributing the most helping Taiwan’s GDP increase. It
allows me to track the products that other countries are demanding, and study what the
trend is. When developing policies, it is very important to keep in mind what is Taiwan
exporting that is keeping its trend steady over the years. I must be careful of certain
barriers that Taiwan might impose that may affect this trend. This allows me to look into
which country Taiwan must maintain a good relationship with, and which country to
work on building a relationship with.
Taiwan has also opened its doors to imports from other countries. In Exhibit 2, the graph
shows imports steadily increasing over the years as well. During policy making, it is
important to keep in mind of this trend because I will need to look at other factors that
might affect this trend, therefore, create policies that may protect or either promote some
of the action taking place. I will need to ask myself if current policies are up to date or if
it needs to be updated, and examine that it is following current trends. Other factors are
like examining Taiwan’s current and financial account, if there is a deficit or not. In
Exhibit 3, GDP is rising, and is expected to continue to rise over the years. So it is
important for me to currently see, if the current import is exceeding current export
because if it is, I will need to see if policies need to be revised.
EXHIBIT 1: Exports
EXHIBIT 2: Imports
EXHIBIT 3: GDP per capita in thousand $
SECTION B
As Taiwan’s performance improves, it continues to maintain a good relationship with its
trading partners. Taiwan's major trading partners in 2003 were the United States, Japan,
China, Hong Kong, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, and
European Union (EU) members. (http://www.washingtonstate.org.tw) The U.S.
accounts for 16% of Taiwan's exports and supplying 13% of its imports. Imports from
the United States consist mostly of agricultural and industrial raw materials. Exports to
the United States are mainly electronics and consumer goods. The United States, Hong
Kong, the P.R.C. and Japan account for nearly 61% of Taiwan's exports, and the United
States and Japan provide almost 40% of Taiwan's imports.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) I believe the United States is going to continue to
have a growing demand for the electronic products, machineries, and electrical
equipments from Taiwan. I believe these two countries will probably continue reforming
their trade policies to build a closer relationship for trades in good.
Although there have been many political disputes between China and Taiwan, relation
between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait has grown extensively over the past years.
China is Taiwan's largest trading partner, and Taiwan is China's fifth largest. In 2004,
China (including Hong Kong) accounted for over 23% of Taiwan's total trade and almost
37% of Taiwan's exports. Japan was Taiwan's second largest trading partner with 15% of
total trade, including 26% of Taiwan's imports. (http://www.washingtonstate.org.tw)
These two countries will probably continue trading with Taiwan especially because of
their geographic location.
I am looking at continuing working with Taiwan’s major trading partners in the long run.
I believe Taiwan is going to continue being an active trader. With Taiwan’s active role
tending many of the global organization and the non-government organizations, many
other countries will want to continue working with Taiwan as a trading partner.
SECTION C
Foreign trade has been the main drive of Taiwan's rapid growth during the past 50 years.
As Taiwan’s CTO, I plan to concentrate on implementing policies to continue on in
improving Taiwan’s economy. Reforming Taiwan’s policy will also need to be done as
businesses turn more to labor intensive industries and cheaper work forces. Taiwan will
need to improve and rely more on their skilled technology force. Taiwan's economy
remains an export-oriented trader, so is more sensitive to economic changes. I will need
to set up policies that will allow Taiwan to react when the rest of the world’s economy
goes down; that way, there will not be that much of an impact on Taiwan’s current and
financial account. Continuing on implementing and revising trade policies with other
countries are critical since Taiwan is an export-oriented trader. Taiwan continues to work
on cross-strait relations, and has implemented changes in their policies to adjust to
China’s. These policies show Taiwan’s economic importance and its aspiration to
become further integrated into the global economy.
Gavin Morita
February 21, 2006
GPIR Simulation: Essay 1
TAIWAN: Chief Intelligence Officer
Section A
Dating back to the 19th century, Taiwan has endured a history of instability which
continues to this day and can be primarily attributed to their hostile relations with
mainland China. The Republic of China has been the de facto ruler of Taiwan since the
end of World War II following the surrendering of Japanese troops. The Communist
Party of China’s victory in the Chinese Civil War forced the ROC to retreat to Taiwan
where it continued to claim sovereignty over all of China and Mongolia. At the same
time, the Communists established the People’s Republic of China on the mainland and
claimed to be the sole representative of China as well as Taiwan.
In addition to Taiwan’s governing uncertainties, there are also ongoing
movements concerning the future of their political status. In addition to the groups
seeking to establish an independent Taiwanese republic, there are those seeking
reunification with mainland China as well as many who continue to support the status
quo. China has pressured Taiwan towards reunification and has expressed its opposition
to independence by publicly threatening the use of force if necessary. This has become a
concern of the United States who despite having no formal diplomatic relations with
Taiwan, has pledged its protection and continued arms sales.
As a result of China’s acts of intimidation and their threats of force to achieve
specific political goals, it is essential for Taiwan to direct the majority of its intelligence
initiatives towards that of mainland China. Certain factors which make China an
intelligence priority include: Taiwan’s geographic proximity to the country, the fear of
Chinese military expansionism, and the continued threat of a surprise attack. Intelligence
will provide the information necessary to protect and prepare Taiwan in the event of an
attack by China. These vital insights include, details of China’s armed forces, their
structure and organization, tactical doctrine, order of battle, weapons and equipment, and
supporting battlefield functional systems.
The specific trends which are important in the development of intelligence
policies and strategic relations are primarily associated with the country’s political and
economic dependence. Trends which show Taiwan’s financial successes in the future
may possibly infer a minimized reliance on China in the form of trade and possible
increased relations with countries such as the U.S., Japan, or South Korea. Trends which
may predict decreased political or economic involvement with China may also signal
increased hostilities in respect to a drive towards succession. The graph below plots the
GDP of Taiwan in 1995 dollars over time. It shows a drastic increase over the years as
Taiwan has been economically touted as one of the “East Asian Tigers.”
Another important trend to take note of concerning Taiwan’s political future is the
citizen’s overall satisfaction with democracy. The second graph below plots whether or
not a democratic political system is good for the country. A strong trend in the approval
of democracy would also attribute to Taiwan’s possible desire for succession from China
in the future.
Taiwan’s long term intelligence goals primarily center on establishing policies to
safeguard their country from the ongoing threat posed by China as well as developing
relations with the United States to achieve the maximum potential of its intelligence
collection techniques and procedures. Policies such as the cooperative intelligencesharing agreement between the U.S. and Taiwan which allows each country’s respective
intelligence agency to listen in on China’s military communications should be applied
and extended to other nations of interest where it may prove beneficial.
According to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, people must fulfill lower order
physiological needs, before realizing higher needs such as esteem and self-actualization.
In applying his theory, the Chinese citizens’ main concern would be providing for
themselves and their family the basic physiological needs such as food and shelter. If
Taiwan were to gain independence from China, it would take with it a significant
percentage of the Chinese GDP. This would directly threaten the ability of the Chinese
government to provide for its citizens these basic physiological needs.
In order for Taiwan to gain independence, which would be classified as a higher
order need, it must first fulfill the lower order needs. This would entail providing its
citizens with a stable means to obtain food, clothing and shelter. This would best be met
by shifting towards a democratic ruling system. This allows citizens to depend less upon
the government and instead rely on themselves to fulfill their own desires, and thus also
gives them the means to fulfill higher mental and emotional needs.
Section B
The National Security Bureau (NSB) is Taiwan’s primary intelligence agency
which was established on March 1, 1955. Under the National Security Bureau’s
command are administrative organizations such as the Police Administration Office,
Bureau of Exit and Entry Control, Investigation Bureau of Justice Department; military
agencies such as Taiwan Garrison Command Headquarters, General Political Command
Unit, Military Intelligence Bureau and Military Police Headquarters; and KMT
organizations such as Social Work Committee, Mainland Maneuvers Committee and
Overseas Maneuvers Committee.
In 1994, the organic law of the NSB was passed by the legislature and established
the NSB as a fully legal organ of the government in charge of the coordination of national
security intelligence and special service missions. It is the mission of the NSB to adhere
strictly to the law, remain neutral in the execution of duties, and separating intelligence
collection from law enforcement.
There are six divisions under the NSB which include, international intelligence,
intelligence about mainland China, intelligence relevant to Taiwan’s security, analysis of
the nation’s strategic intelligence, scientific and technological intelligence and
telecommunications security, and control and development of secret codes and facilities.
Taiwan is currently governed by the Republic of China (ROC) although its
present political status is being contested by the People’s Republic of China who claims it
as one of its provinces and views the ROC government on Taiwan as an illegitimate
entity. There are two initiative groups in Taiwan, one concerned with its reunification
with the mainland and the other which seeks to establish a Taiwanese republic. This
political instability creates the potential for military conflict with military training and
arms sales being provided to the ROC from the US. These concerns make intelligence
about mainland China of primary importance due to visible tensions.
The countries which remain at the forefront of Taiwan’s intelligence priorities are
China and the United States with Japan and Korea’s importance resting in their
geographical proximities. Taiwan’s intelligence missions are focused strongly upon
China’s attitude towards either an independent Taiwan or adhering to the status quo.
Reunification with China is neither favorable nor beneficial, and certainly not in the best
interest of the Taiwanese people, and so, this demand will not be met. How China will
react to this choice is information which must be obtained, through intelligence, before it
is publicly expressed. The United States plays an important role in Taiwan’s opposition
towards China’s demands of reunification. Their current stance is in support of a
peaceful resolution, though they are not in favor of an independent Taiwanese republic.
Taiwan must work with the U.S. to ensure that China’s global priorities are well
understood. China’s continued threats of violence towards Taiwan coupled with their
military expansionist policies make the U.S. an essential ally in ensuring that Taiwan is
adequately protected. With thousands of U.S. troops stationed in Japan and the security
alliance formed between the two nations, Taiwan can only benefit from cooperating with
the U.S. in the collection of intelligence information. It should remain Taiwan’s policy to
obtain intelligence directed towards developing a reaction plan in the event of a Chinese
attack. China is Taiwan’s only eminent threat, and therefore any information regarding
China is vital to ensuring national as well as global security.
Section C
The political uncertainty experienced in the shadow of China has left the people
of Taiwan frustrated and no longer tolerable of the conditions that they’ve faced for more
than fifty years. It is the goal of Taiwan’s CIO, with approval from the CEO, to
encourage an initiative towards achieving the long-term goal of independence. In
cooperation with the United States, Japan, and Russia, a coalition should be formed
directed towards obtaining peace throughout Asia in ensuring that countries such as
China can coexist without aggressive and threatening policies. In achieving
independence, the U.S. must first recognize Taiwan independent of China and
unequivocally support their move towards succession. The collection of intelligence is
critical to ensure that China does not view this as an act of aggression, but rather a move
towards peace and enhanced global relations. Any apparent or suspected move towards
the use of force on the part of China should be collectively combated first through
diplomacy followed by a well formulated plan of defense. With strength in numbers, a
coalition for peace should deter China from reacting violently to the idea of succession,
as long as an agreement is reached to justify the separation of Taiwan. The primary
concern of the CIO is to ensure that sufficient intelligence has been collected to ensure
that Taiwan’s move towards independence is met peacefully and collectively.
Taiwan
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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/EC06Ad03.html
http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/02/18/us.japan/index.html
http://www.nsb.gov.tw/ehistory.htm
http://www.fas.org/irp/world/taiwan/nsb.htm
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35855.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan
http://www.ifs.du.edu