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BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Third International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators
17-19 November 2010, Moscow, Russian Federation
(KECUK) SUHARIYANTO
Director of Analysis and Development of Statistics, BPS-Statistics Indonesia
email: [email protected]
1. Business Tendency Survey (BTS) is aimed to collect prompt
information on general tendency of business over the recent past,
near future and current situation.
2. Three organizations has conducted BTS in Indonesia:

BPS-Statistics Indonesia,

Bank of Indonesia,

Danareksa Research Institute (DRI)
They ask some similar variables and produce related indicators, but
different in other aspects (methodology, type of variables and
period covered).
3.
BPS-Statistics Indonesia has conducted quarterly Business
Tendency Survey since 1995  restricted to greater Jakarta area.
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4.
Started in 2001, BPS has collaborated with Bank of Indonesia 
merge the questionnaires, conducted in almost all provinces, cover
9 sectors, number of sample 2500 firms (280 firms in agriculture
sector)
5. Data collection: interview and mailing system, response rate:
70-80%.
6. Sampling method: Stratified sampling with stratification by
sectors, regions, and size in term of production, sales or
income
7. The results are released quarterly with the GDP figures 
disseminated in website, free of charge (www.bps.go.id). Since
BTS survey contain and business category are parallel with GDP
sectors, it is useful to predict the GDP growth
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TYPES OF INDEX
VARIABLES
Current Business
Tendency Index (CBTI)
1. Business income
2. Production capacity
3. Average working hours
Future Business
Tendency Index (FBTI)
1. Domestic order
2. Foreign order
3. Selling price
4. Order for input/raw material
The survey uses qualitative questions asking for an assessment or
change of variables. Most questions make use of period of three months.
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1. The score is given to each selected variables: “increase”=2,
“same”=1, “decrease”=0.
2. For each variable, calculate total score (TS):
TS
I

x 100%
vi
n
3. CBTI and FBTI are calculated independently:
CBTI or FBTI
  ( wi I vi )
w
i
4. The values of CBTI and FBTI are between 0-200:
 BTI > 100: the business condition is better
 BTI = 100: the business condition is stagnant
 BTI < 100:the business condition is worse
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Figure 1. Export, Import and GDP Growth 2007-2010
The impact of global economic and financial crisis in Indonesian economy
started in effect in October 2008. It was shown by decreasing in exports and
import values and GDP growth
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Figure 2. Total BTS, BTS Manufacturing and BTS Agriculture 2006-2010
BTS also decreased in Quarter-4, especially for manufacturing sector.
Third International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators
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 The BTS and GDP growths in manufacturing sector has similar pattern
Third International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators
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30
20
10
0
-10
Q1-07 Q2
Q3
Q4 Q1-08 Q2
Q3
Q4 Q1-09 Q2
Q3
Q4 Q1-10 Q2
Q3
Q4
-20
-30
BTS Agriculture
GDP Agriculture
 The BTS and GDP growths in agriculture sector has different pattern, especially in Q1
and Q4.
 In Quarter-1, GDP growths are always positive due to high agriculture production
(highest harvest season), in Quarter-4 it is always negative
 Coverage of BTS is only agriculture firms, coverage of GDP includes agriculture
households. In Indonesia, majority of agriculture production, especially food crops, is
produced by households.
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Harvested Area (Million Ha)
Production (Million Tons)
Third International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators
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QUARTER 1-2009
QUARTER 3-2010
In general, GDP and BTS growth by sector has similar pattern. However, the pattern for
agricultural sector is different in Quarter-1 and Quarter-4.
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CONCLUSION:
In general, BTS is a good indicator to predict business tendency in Indonesia.
However, Agriculture Tendency Index has different pattern with agriculture GDP growth
due to different coverage. How do we solve this problem?
FUTURE PLAN
1. Improvement of methodology:
 Increase number of sample and coverage  use the most recent sampling
frame. To meet users’ demand, the estimation should be presented until
province level.
 Questionnaire content and design
 Find more appropriate weights used in calculation of the index
 Need special method in agriculture sector? More relevant variables for
agriculture?
2. Improvements of data gathering and processing.
3. Improvements of dissemination of the survey results.
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Thank You
TERIMA KASIH
Third International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators
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 The BTS growth has similar pattern with GDP growth except in Quarter-1.
 GDP growth in Indonesia is heavily influenced by agriculture and manufacturing
sectors. Their shares to total GDP are 16% and 25% respectively.
 In Quarter-1, GDP growths are always positive due to high agriculture production
(highest harvest season).
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