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GDP Growth and Elections
MARCUS, MARGARITA, ARDA
Hibbs vs. Australia
 Elections

Fixed vs. Non-fixed

2 party system vs. Coalitions
 Economic data

Eeal disposable personal income vs. Quarterly GDP Growth
 US vs. Australia
The Solutions
 Economic data—quarterly GDP growth

Real GDP per capita
 Endogenous elections

Traditional

Non-traditional

Dummy variables
Australian Elections
58.00
2-Party Incumbent Vote Share
56.00
54.00
52.00
50.00
48.00
46.00
44.00
42.00
40.00
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
Weighted GDP Growth
1
1.5
2
Possible Explanations
 Australia is an open economy
 Welfare state
 Different electoral system
 Australians may not care about the economic voting
Puerto Rico
 Gubernatorial Elections
 Fixed Elections
 2-Party System
 New Progressive Party
 Popular Democratic Party
Puerto Rico Gubernatorial Elections
56.00
2-Party Incumbent Vote Share
54.00
1996
1988
52.00
2004
1980
50.00
1976
48.00
1968
2000
1984
1992
1972
46.00
44.00
2008
42.00
40.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Weighted Average Growth
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
Possible Explanation and Lessons Learned
 Open Economy
 Idiosyncratic Factors
 1972 election
Questions?