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Revista de Salud Pública ISSN: 0124-0064 [email protected] Universidad Nacional de Colombia Colombia Hincapie-Palacio, Doracelly; Ospina-Giraldo, Juan F. La dinámica de la transmisión de la enfermedad según la teoría de la complejidad Revista de Salud Pública, vol. 15, núm. 5, octubre, 2013, pp. 655-665 Universidad Nacional de Colombia Bogotá, Colombia Available in: http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=42230941001 Abstract Objective Illustrating disease transmission as a complex system according to complexity theory. Methods A SIR mathematical model (S=number susceptible, I=number infectious, and R=number recovered or immune) reflecting disease transmission from the connection between states of susceptibility, infection, disease, recovery and non-linearity in the interaction between susceptible and infected was simulated. Infection rate temporal fluctuations were described by logistic mapping. Results Transmission occurs with the reduction of susceptible states as people become infected and sick, followed by an increase in individuals’ recovery following diagnosis and treatment. Small increases in infection rate value led to fluctuations in the number of susceptible and exposed people and randomness in the relationship between being susceptible and infected, until converging towards a regular pattern. Conclusion The model reflected the connection between states of susceptibility, nonlinearity and chaotic behavior following small increases in infection rate. A historical and trans-disciplinary perspective could help in understanding transmission complexity and coordinating control options. Keywords Non-linear dynamics, theoretical model, basic reproduction number (source: MeSH, NLM). How to cite Complete issue More information about this article Journal's homepage in redalyc.org Scientific Information System Network of Scientific Journals from Latin America, the Caribbean, Spain and Portugal Non-profit academic project, developed under the open access initiative