Download Agricultural development and nutrition improvement in comparative perspective: India, Africa and the rest

Agricultural development
and nutrition improvement
in comparative perspective:
India, Africa and the rest
William A. Masters
Professor, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University
http://sites.tufts.edu/willmasters
with Amelia F. Darrouzet-Nardi
Doctoral Candidate, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University
http://sites.tufts.edu/ameliadarrouzetnardi
IEG-IFPRI Conference on Innovations in Indian Agriculture
New Delhi, 4-5 December 2014
Agricultural development & nutrition improvement
in comparative perspective:
India, Africa and the rest
What’s ahead:
• Agricultural development
• Common development paths?
• Rural demography and age structure
• Nutritional improvement
• Comparable data by region over time?
• Heights and weights
• Conclusions
• Confounders and randomness
• Implications for agricultural innovation
Agricultural development & nutrition improvement
Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights
Nutrition outcomes
Are there common
development paths?
Nutrition
Agriculture
Technological change
Agricultural development & nutrition improvement
Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights
Common development paths?
Food supply and real income by region, 1990-2012
3500
Dietary energy
(kCal/pers/day)
High-Income Countries
3000
World Average
2500
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
What’s behind this
Asia-Africa
difference?
2000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Real income per capita (GDP at 2011 PPP prices)
Source: Author’s calculations, May 2014. Real income is from World Bank, World Development Indicators (April 2014),
downloaded from http://data.worldbank.org. Food supply is from FAO, Food Security Indicators (December 2013),
downloaded from http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/ess-fs. Each point is a 3-year average, from 1990-92 to 2010-12.
Agricultural development & nutrition improvement
Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights
Africa’s impoverishment is relatively recent
Only in the 1990s did they get as poor as S. Asian farmers had been
Poverty rates by region, 1981-2010 (share of population below $1.25/day)
80
70
East Asia
South Asia
Sub-S. Africa
Rest of World
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2010
Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2013), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/),
updated 18 April 2013. Estimates are based on over 850 household surveys from 127 countries, and refer to
per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.
Agricultural development & nutrition improvement
Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights
Africa faces more rural population growth than India
Africa’s rural demographic transition is 20 years behind South Asia’s
Rural population increase in Africa, South Asia and Worldwide, 1950-2050
Annual 2.5
1990-2014
change
2.0
in rural
population 1.5
(% growth) 1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
SS Africa
For the world as a whole,
rural population growth will soon
become negative, allowing more land per farm
World
So Asia
-1.5
Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), based on UN
Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision.
Agricultural development & nutrition improvement
Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights
Africa faces much more child dependency than India
Africa’s rural demographic transition is 20 years behind South Asia’s
Child and elderly dependency rates by region (0-15 and 65+), 1950-2030
Children or 100
elderly per
1990-2014 Africa’s dependency rate is still
100 adults 90
high but now falling, reversing
of working
the earlier “demographic drag”
age (16-65)
80
World
70
SSAfrica
SoAsia
60
50
40
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), based on UN
Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision.
Agricultural development & nutrition improvement
Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights
What is known about nutrition improvement?
• Heights and weights
• Some anthropological and other records
• 18th & 19th c. data on military recruits
• Modern surveys of mothers & children
• Nutritional inputs
• Diets (foods, nutrients and anti-nutrients)
• Care (breastfeeding, disease & treatment)
• Parents (genes, epigenetics & maternal health)
• Nutritional status
• Anthropometry (heights, weights, body size)
• Biomarkers (blood, urine, body composition)
Agricultural development & nutrition improvement
Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights
What is known about rural nutrition improvement?
Oldest and newest DHS surveys in S. Asia, Africa & the Rest
Survey year
First
Last
Elapsed
years
1992
2005
Bangladesh
Nepal
S.Asia average
Africa average
RoW average
.
1996
2001
1996
1995
1995
Worldwide average
1995
Region and Country
# of subnat. reg.
First
Last
13
20
29
2011
2011
2009
2008
2005
15
10
12.7
13.7
10.0
6
5
10.3
6.4
9.1
7
3
13.0
10.2
10.5
2007
12.5
7.6
10.5
South Asia
India
Note: Inclusion criterion is availability of both HAZ and WHZ data for children
with rural residence.
Agricultural development & nutrition improvement
Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights
Child heights rose slightly from 1992 to 2005 in India
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
Mean HAZ of rural children by subnational region at each national income level in oldest and newest DHS surveys
(oldest = Os & dashed line, newest = squares & solid line, India is green Xs)
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
Log of country's national real GDP per capita at PPP prices (2005 USD), from PWT 8.0
Note: Worldwide means and confidence intervals are estimated by lpolyci, with a bandwidth of 0.75.
Sample is all rural children with both heights and weights in repeated DHS surveys from 33 countries
for 112,730 obs. in the oldest surveys (1987-2006) and 142,677 in the newest (2000-2011).
Data shown are subnational administrative regions; India surveys are in 1992 and 2005.
9
Agricultural development & nutrition improvement
Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights
Africans are now poorer but often taller than Indians
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
Mean HAZ of rural children at each national income level, by the newest (squares) and oldest (Os) DHS survey
(Africa in blue, South Asia in green, Rest-of-World in red, India is green Xs
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
Log of real GDP per capita at PPP prices (2005 USD), from PWT 8.0
Note: Worldwide means and confidence intervals are estimated by lpolyci, with a bandwidth of 0.75,
with most recent surveys shown in the solid line and the oldest survey in the dashed line.
Data shown are subnational regions in India, Nepal and Pakistan plus 20 in Africa and 10 elsewhere.
9
Agricultural development & nutrition improvement
Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights
Stunting rates follow mean height but vary more
0
20
40
60
Stunting rates of rural children at each national income level, by the newest (squares) and oldest (Os) DHS survey
(subnational regions in Africa in blue, South Asia in green, Rest-of-World in red, India is green Xs)
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
Log of real GDP per capita at PPP prices (2005 USD), from PWT 8.0
Note: Worldwide means and confidence intervals are estimated by lpolyci, with a bandwidth of 0.75,
with most recent surveys shown in the solid line and the oldest survey in the dashed line.
Data shown are subnational regions in India, Nepal and Pakistan plus 20 in Africa and 10 elsewhere.
9
Agricultural development & nutrition improvement
Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights
India’s wasting rates worsened from 1992 to 2005
0
10
20
30
40
Wasting rates of rural children at each national income level, by the newest (squares) and oldest (Os) DHS survey
(subnational regions in Africa in blue, South Asia in green, Rest-of-World in red, India is green Xs)
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
Log of real GDP per capita at PPP prices (2005 USD), from PWT 8.0
Note: Worldwide means and confidence intervals are estimated by lpolyci, with a bandwidth of 0.75,
with most recent surveys shown in the solid line and the oldest survey in the dashed line.
Data shown are subnational regions in India, Nepal and Pakistan plus 20 in Africa and 10 elsewhere.
9
Agricultural development & nutrition improvement
Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights
Mean weight-for-height follows wasting & varies less
-2
-1
0
1
2
Mean WHZ of rural children at each national income level, by the newest (squares) and oldest (Os) DHS survey
(Africa in blue, South Asia in green, Rest-of-World in red, India is green Xs
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
Log of real GDP per capita at PPP prices (2005 USD), from PWT 8.0
Note: Worldwide means and confidence intervals are estimated by lpolyci, with a bandwidth of 0.75,
with most recent surveys shown in the solid line and the oldest survey in the dashed line.
Data shown are subnational regions in India, Nepal and Pakistan plus 20 in Africa and 10 elsewhere.
9
Agricultural development & nutrition improvement
Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights
In conclusion…
• Nutrition improvement varies widely
• Local confounders modify agriculture’s effects
-- e.g. poor sanitation alters impact of diets
• Lots of randomness makes effects hard to see
-- need large sample sizes, expensive surveys
• Implications for agriculture are still unclear
• Agriculture has many different effects on nutrition
--- e.g. diet diversity, seasonality, caregivers’ time use
• But so do non-agricultural factors
-- e.g. impact of mother and grandmother’s health
today’s children echo nutrition of the 1970s
• Success calls for patience and realism as well as ambition
Agricultural development & nutrition improvement
Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights
Thank you!
The analysis presented here builds on work with Amelia F. Darrouzet-Nardi,
especially “Urbanization, market development and malnutrition in farm
households: Evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys, 1990-2011.”
(forthcoming 2015).
For other background papers:
-- http://sites.tufts.edu/willmasters
For school info:
-- http://nutrition.tufts.edu
Agricultural development & nutrition improvement
Agricultural develop. | child heights | child weights
The full set of first & last DHS surveys shown here
Countries, years and number of subnational regions in the long-difference panel of DHS surveys
Year
First Last
Elapsed
time
N (subnat. reg.)
First
Last
Region and Country
South Asia
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
S. Asia average
1996
1992
2001
1996
2011
2005
2011
2009
15
13
10
12.7
6
20
5
10.3
7
29
3
13.0
Rest-of-World
Armenia
Turkey
Bolivia
Colombia
DR
Peru
Egypt
Jordan
Morocco
Cambodia
RoW average
2000
1998
1994
1995
1991
1996
1995
1990
1992
2000
1995
2010
2003
2008
2005
2007
2000
2008
2002
2003
2005
2005
10
5
14
10
16
4
13
12
11
5
10
11
5
7
5
8
24
2
5
7
17
9
11
5
9
6
8
24
2
3
15
22
11
Worldwide average
1995
2007
12.5
7.6
10.5
Region and Country
Africa
Burkina Faso
Benin
Cameroon
Ethiopia
Ghana
Guinea
Kenya
Lesotho
Madagascar
Mali
Malawi
Mozambique
Nigeria
Niger
Namibia
Rwanda
Senegal
Tanzania
Uganda
Zimbabwe
Africa average
Note: Inclusion criterion is availability of both HAZ and WHZ data for children with rural residence.
Year
First
1993
1996
1991
2000
1993
1999
1993
2004
1992
1995
1992
1987
1990
1992
1992
1992
1992
1991
2006
2005
1995
Last
Elapsed
time
2010
2006
2011
2011
2008
2005
2008
2009
2003
2006
2010
2011
2008
2006
2006
2010
2010
2010
2011
2010
2008
17
10
20
11
15
6
15
5
11
11
18
24
18
14
14
18
18
19
5
5
13.7
N (subnat. reg.)
First
Last
5
6
5
11
10
5
7
10
6
6
3
11
4
4
2
5
4
5
9
10
6.4
13
12
12
11
10
8
8
10
6
9
3
11
6
8
13
4
14
26
10
10
10.2