Download Scenario planning results

For each group
• Slides include
– Group membership
– Scenarios digital
– Scenarios photo
– Drivers digital
– Drivers photo
• + ranking of drivers in plenary
Inner Mongolia
•
•
•
•
•
Peilei and Qianlai (co-leads)
Ma, Mei
Shao, Changliang
Wang, Haichun
Zhao, Fangyuan
InnerMongolian Scenario TeamLong term policy
Proactive Adaptation
天不助人助
-Moderate environment capital/biomass
-Low number of livestocks
+Stable society
+Livable life (ok income, social safe net ok)
-Frequent natural disasters
Grassland Paradise
+High environment capital/biomass
+Optimal number of livestocks
+High living quality
+Harmonious society
+Overpopulation(attract immigrants)
-Snow disasters
-Social welfare policy(Education, health)
+/-leads to population (in)stability.
High Precipitation
Low Precipitation
Dissertification
天人合一
天人皆不助
Grassland Pendllum
天助人不助
-low environment capital/biomass
+/- Large variation of environment
-Low number of livestocks
capital/biomass
-Natural disasters(insects, rats, etc)
+/- Unpredictable economic
-Proverty, emigration
outcome/income
-Social instability
-Overgrazing(exlpoitation of
+Short-term income stability
environment capital)
+Technology, education, rising income
+/- Over/undergrazing of beef &
(e.g. sustainable mining, other economic
lamb market demand
activities) due to change of economic
structure
Short term policy
InnerMongolian Team
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
High Uncertainty
•
•
•
•
Extreme weather
Precipitation
One/two child policy
Subsidy policies (grassland
restoration, land lease)
• Education policy
• Health care policy
• Other policies
Human-induced land-use change
Urbanization
Meat output
Market (lamb, beef price)
Population
Environment capital
Social capital
Low Impact
•
•
•
•
•
High Impact
Transportation (new roads/trains)
Young people move out
Investment from outside (mining)
Eco-structure
Vegetation change (species
composition)
•
•
•
•
Herdsmen’s behavior, style of grazing
Management (fertilizer, irrigation)
Technology
Fenced
Low Uncertainty
Mongolia
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Tsolmon and Dennis (co-leads)
Batkhishig, Ochirbat (translate)
Battulga, Danbayar
Gantumur, Altangerel
Huhuu, Tuvshinjargal
Natsagdorj, Enkhjargal
Uudus, Divaachuu
Mongolian Scenario Team
POLICY MAKER
Green
Sustainable Development
Restoration Ecology
Native plants and animals conservation
Employment and living conditions improved
Waste management
GDP increase
Industrial
Mining
Desertification
Degradation
Economic development
Infrastructural development
Rural living conditions decline
Migration to cities and centers
Water and soil stressed
Pollution
Food shortage
GDP increase
Pasture system developed
Living conditions better
Water quality maintained
Rural living conditions improved
Small Scale Farmers
LULC better
Agriculture/
Forestation
Livestock
GDP declined
Sector
Drought
Sand/dust storm
Pollution
Pastural and agricultural management conflict
Agricultural soil erosion
Infrastructure development problems
Land management needed
Livestock specialization
Livestock quality problem
Private Market/ GreenhouseGas incerase
Deforestation
Capitalism
Mongolian Scenario Team
•
•
•
•
•
•
High Uncertainty
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Livestock disease
Cashmere market crash
Precipitation
Degradation
Desertification
China or Russia Economic Condition
Multi year drought
Mining Development
Water Limitation
Petroleum Price
Policy maker
Political Stability
Agriculture
Low Impact
• Population Growth
• Wildlife numbers
• Social Utility
High Impact
•
•
•
•
Land Management
Livestock number
Infrastructure
Education
Low Uncertainty
Plateau Group 1
•
•
•
•
•
Dan and Martin (co-leads)
Gang Dong
Indree Tuvshintogtokh
Jiquan Chen
Yaoqi Zhang
High world economic growth
Traditional Development
More investment
Planed urbanization
Shifts towards service and industrial economy
Better jobs
Good governance
High social mobility
More protected area
High consumption
More pollution
Towards greener politics
Low land degradation
Asleep at the wheel
More foreign investment
More mining
More pollution
More consumption/production
Urbanization
Faster shifts in economy
Land-use intensification due to rural
infrastructure instrument mechanization
technolgy
Poor governance
Trapped
Smart Development
Targeted foreign investment
Innovative governance population
Low population growth
Stable consumption level
Efficiency and recycling/reuse emphasized
Renewable energy
Low livestock growth
Plateau Group1
High land degradation
Less foreign investment
Reliance on land resources
Less urbanization
Increasing number of livestocks
Lower population growth
Higher water scarcity
Low world economic growth
Plateau group 1
•
•
•
•
High Uncertainty
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Technology advancement
Functional multi-scale governance
Human and livestock disease
Ecosystem disturbance (human and
natural)
Low Impact
•
•
•
•
Energy Prices
Ecosystem degradation
Foreign geopolitical influences
Highly development mining industry
World economic growth
Increasing number of livestock
Spatial variability of climate impacts
High Impact
Increase in protected areas
Pollution
Agricultural expansion
Melting of glaciers and permafrost
•
•
•
•
•
Increase in extreme weather
Infrastructure investment
Shift to market system
Social mobility
Population change and redistribution
Low Uncertainty
Plateau Group 2
•
•
•
•
•
Yichun and Pasha (co-leads)
Ranjeet John
Dan Wang
Henry Kinnucan
Mongolian woman whose name I don’t know
Plateau Group2
More Ecological Investment
Seven Fat Cows
• Increased prosperity of society
• Empowering society (disadvantaged
communities)
• Improving infrastructure
• More choices for individuals and societal
groups
• Awareness(?) of pollution
• More resilient and reversal of negative
tendencies in health and environment (water
and soil pollution)
“we shall overcome”
• More resilient to detrimental events
• Green energy
• New technology
• Genetic improvement of livestock
• Better management of pastoral lands
• More environmental protection projects
Less Extreme Events
More Extreme Events
Watch your back
• Reduced demand for environmental
protection
• Released public resources for
investment in science and education
KAPUT
• Increased poverty
• Grassland degradation
• Land abandonment
• Society under risk
• Invasive species
• More dust storms
Less Ecological Investment
Plateau Team 2
High Uncertainty
•
•
•
•
• Mining
Low Impact
Stable global market
Extreme weather event (drought)
Controlled migration
New land ownership law
High Impact
• Green policy
• Over-grazing
• Public awareness (whether are
educated)
• Improvement of the currently
introduced livestock mortality index
based insurance.
•
•
•
•
•
•
Invasive species (herbaceous replaced by deep
rooted shrubs)
Uncertainty of precipitation, distribution of drying vs.
wetting trends
Balance between industrial vs. pastoral development
Better projections of regional hydrological and
biosphere trends
Government policies with respect to
taxation/subsidization of rural production
Investments in soil and water preservation
Low Uncertainty
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Plenary Ranking of Drivers
Policy: green vs. market driven - 8
Economy: industry vs. agriculture - 7
Precipitation amount - 11
Policy: long vs. short term - 8
Extreme weather events - 5
Ecological investment - 5
World economic growth - 5
Land degradation - 10
Global warming - 4
Educational access - 4
Future population and consumption - 4
Herder well-being and poverty - 0
Good planning and governance - 11
Multi-year drought - 2
Energy prices - 0
Infrastructure investment - 5
Market integration - 5
Social welfare policy - 3
Investment in science and technology - 1
Population policy - 2
Technology developments - 6
Mining - 7
Culture change - 2
Original 8