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Download California Water Resources Variable & Extreme Kamyar Guivetchi February 23, 2009
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California Water Resources Variable & Extreme February 23, 2009 Kamyar Guivetchi Statewide Integrated Water Management California Department of Water Resources California Water Background Population 2008 -- 38 million 2030 -- 48 million 2050 – 59 million Irrigated acreage 9.5 million Most precipitation occurs November thru March 2/3 surface runoff occurs North of Sacramento 2/3 water use occurs South of Sacramento 2 Average Annual Runoff (70.8 MAF) California’s Major River Systems N 3 Statewide Water Management Systems Year 2000 data. Does not include re-use. Quantities vary by year. 4 Profound Climate Change Impacts Air temperature Precipitation amount, timing and type Runoff timing and quantity Sea level rise 5 Temperature Change in California 14 7 12 6 10 5 8 4 3 6 2 4 1 2 0 0 -1 -2 Change in Temp (Degree F) Change in Tem p (Degree C) 8 -2 From: Dettinger, 2005 6 We Expect Many Water Resource Consequences Flood Management Water Supplies Water Quality Water Demands System Operations Ecosystems 7 How Climate Change Impacts California’s Water Resources Reduced snowpack impacting water supply and hydropower Earlier snowmelt increasing flood control portion of reservoir space Higher water temperatures degrading aquatic ecosystems Rising sea level threatening the Delta, bays, estuaries & coastline • destabilizing levees • increasing SW/GW salinity Higher water demand all sectors 8 Mount Shasta August 2008 Driest in over 80 years Expected Storage Capacity Change from Increasing Temperature 13.5 MAF 15 MAF (38%) Sac Valley Reservoir Storage Snow Pack Storage 11 MAF SJ Valley Reservoir Storage o A moderate 3 C increase in temperature could increase snow elevation by 1500 feet decrease Sierra snow pack by 4 - 5 MAF 10 Range of Snowpack Reductions Projected by 2050 11 Changes in Runoff Timing Attributed to Earlier Snowmelt Sacramento River Runoff April - July Runoff in Percent of Water Year Runoff 70% 65% 70% Linear Regression (least squares) line showing historical trend 65% Percent of Water Year Runoff 60% 60% 3-year running average 55% 55% 50% 50% 45% 45% 40% 40% 35% 35% 30% 30% 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 1906 1913 1920 1927 1934 1941 1948 1955 1962 1969 1976 Water Year (October 1 - September 30) 1983 1990 1997 10% 2004 12 Changes in Peak River Flows American River American River Runoff Annual M aximum 1-Day Flow 250 Unimpaired Runoff at Fair Oaks 225 200 175 1,000 cfs 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Water Year Red Line = Construction of Folsom Dam 13 7” Sea Level Rise Since 1930 Seattle Sea Level Projected 12-24” higher by 2100 San Francisco San Diego Source: Cayan et al. (2006) Projecting Future Sea Level We Must Adapt to Climate Impacts A Long Time After Emissions are Reduced Time to Equilibrium Sea Level –ice melt Sea Level -thermal Temperature CO2 Level Emissions Today CO2 Emissions 100 years 1000 years Water, Energy & Climate Change Future water management activities must carefully consider strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 16 California’s Drought 2008 second dry year statewide Reservoirs critically low Groundwater basins drawn down State & federal water projects restricted by regulatory actions to protect the Delta Folsom Lake Drought conditions continue in 2009 17 2008 Water Conditions 2008 driest recorded spring/summer period - 3.4 inches of rainfall - 24% of average 2007 Southern CA driest recorded year Sac. & San Joaquin Rivers – 2 year runoff lowest 10% of historic 18 Current Water Conditions As of mid-February 2009 Dry first half winter 2009 • Precipitation & snowpack critical Northern Sierra precipitation 76% of average Sierra snowpack 74% of average Lake Oroville 19 Current Reservoir Conditions Lake Oroville Shasta @ 35% of capacity Folsom @ 31% San Luis @ 38% Oroville @ 31% Lake Oroville Oroville lowest carryover storage since 1977 Lowest Jan 1 storage level ever 20 2-Year Drought Fire Impacts More than 16,000 fires Over 1.6M acres burned 13 people lost their lives Over 4000 structures destroyed Nearly $1B for State firefighting Rainfall puts burn areas at risk 21 Estimated 2009 Water Supply Reductions Additional SWP delivery reduction due to Delta Pumping Restrictions 2009 State Water Project Initial Allocation @ 15% Forecasted 2009 SWP/CVP Delivery Capability 23 Drought Response Conservation Drought water bank Regional transfers Expedited grants Workshops/public outreach 24 Long Term Actions Increase & sustain conservation California Aqueduct Diversify regional supplies Increase storage Fix the Delta Sustain investment That is: Implement the California Water Plan Update 2009 25 Questions? 26
