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WO~~D FOOD BUDGET,
1962 AND 1966 .. (Foreign Agncultural Ec.onomic Re!1ort). Washington,.
DC: Economic Research Serv~_ce. Oct. 1961.
(NAL Call,_No. A281.9iAg8F).
If
The
WORLD
FOOD
BUDGET
1962 and 1966
Foreign Agricultural Economic Report No •. 4
,
.
Economic Research Service
in cooperation with
Foreign Agricultural Service
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
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Growth Through Agricultural Pro"gress-
Cover map: Food. balance studies are
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shown here as diet-deficit on the
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FOREWORD
Research work on the Worlc1 Food Budget by
country vas 1n1tiated in February 1961 by the
Foreign Agricultural Service ot the U. S. Depart­
ment ot Agriculture under the ~nsorship ot a
special task torce. A prel:fJn1nary report "The
World Food !)eticit - A First Approximation" we
published by FAS in March. Early in April, in a
reorganization and realigmwmt ot the Department's
economic functions, primary responsibllity for the
World Food Budget was transferred to the Economic
Research Service. This s1.udy we prepared by the
ERS Regional Analysis Division with the active par_
ticipation of FAS commodity and program specialists.
FAS agricultural attaches, ICA tood and agri­ culture officers, and State Department economic of'tieers ot our missions at f'oreign posts reviewed pertinent sections ot the manuscript and provided JII8lly usetul suggestions..
Detailed country data by regions are being processed separately tor 11m1ted distribution. It is planned to update all the tood balance
est:lmates tor the consumption year 1961 when data
become available and to extend this work, insotar
as possible, to countries not previously covered.
There is need to improve the quality ot the data
in many ot the tood balances, and this will be at­
tempted in the years ahead. Food consumption sur­
veys sre planned tor such countries as Brazil and
Peru where sizable segments ot the population are
believed to have diets substantially below the av­
erage for the country.
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'·H
CON'l'ENTS
Highlights of the study
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••••••
111
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••••••••••••
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World Analysis ...•...••.......
Introduction •••••••.•••••••.
Trends in Production and Population •..•.•.•..
AnaJ.ys:ts of Resource Base
The World Food Budget for 1958 .................. .
The World Food Budget for 1962 and 1966 ••..•.•••
The Nutritional Gap and Related Problems ••••••..
• • • • • • • • • • • • tt
••••••••••
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12 13 1.4 18 24 28 28 28 29 Western Hemisphere •.•••
Can.ada ................ ..
United states ••.•••.••.•
Latin America ••.•••..•.•
;
38 38 Africa and West Asia ••••••
Africa ................................... .
West Asia ............................... ..
41 47 47 Far East, Communist Asia, and Oceania.
Far East .................... ". "..... .
CoDlllIWlist Asia. ••
57 . ..... " ......... . 58 Oceania ••••.•••••
Western Ellrope
...............
... ................ .
59 Eastern furope
....................................
64 ..:
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68 68 Appendix ................... .
Methodology ..... *' •
Supplementary Da.ta •••••••••••••
i
•••••••
72 October 1961
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HIGHLIDH'l'S OF '!'BE STUDY
Food balances for th~ world's nations
t10nally adequate 10 the 30 1ndustr1aJ.1~ed
which account for a th1rd of mank1 nd--more
of food and things they can trade tor food
foreseeable fUture.
present sharp contrasts. Diets are nutri­
nations in the temperate Northern Area
than 900 m1l11on peop].e. Their production
assures their food supply, DOW and for the
For most of the 70 less-developed countries in the sem1tropical. and trop1cal
Southern Area, d1lets are nutrit10nally inadequate, with shortages 10 proteins, fat,
and calories. 'l'h~se countries contain over 1.9 'bill10n people. In most of them,
population is expanding rap1dly, malnutrition 1s widespread and perSistent, and there
1s no J.1k.el1hood. ths.t the food problem soon will be solved.
Exceptions to the general situation 10 the Southern Area include: Tai'W8ll in the
Far East; Turkey, Leb811On, and Israel in Weat Asia; Republic of South Africa and
Federation of Rhodesia ~'md Nyasaland in Africa; and Argentina, l1rur6WlY.. Chile, Brazil,
Cost'" Rica, Cuba, and Me."d.co 10 Latin America. Diets in each of these countries meet
the nutritional reference standard on a national average basis. HI.,wever, substant1al
segments of the populat10n of some of these countries, such as northeast Braz1l, are
believed to have substande;l"\.'l diets.
ProjectiOO3 of product1on and imports in the less-developed areas for 1962 indi­
cate that consumpt1on 'W1ll fall short of the nutrit10nal standard by the follow1Dg:
animal protein equivalent to 1.5 million metric tons of nonfat dry'milk; pulse protein
equivalent to 150,000 tons ot dry' beans and peas; fat equivalent to 3 million tons of
vegetable oil; and other protein and calories equivalent to 29 mill10n tons of wheat.
About the same shortages are projected for 1966.
The projected consumption levels are based on further incNtlSeS in food produc­
tion in the deficit areas and increased imports, including accelerated concessionftl
purchases and grants. In 1958, for example, the Southern Area had imports of 11..7
m:1ll10n tons of 'llbeat caJll)8.1'ed with 20.8 million proj~cted for 1962 and 25.3 million
for 1966. This is about as much wheat as these countries can, and are ;rIll1ng, to
receive and move loto consumption. The situation is s1m1l.ar for nonfat dry' 1Id.lk and
vegetable oil.
The world food problem centers pr1ular11y in the Far East and CODI1lI1Ul1st Asia
where the dense and growing population is pressing increasingly on the food supply.
The Far F.ast, excluding CollllllUn1st China.. has two-th1rds of the wheat shortage pro­
jected tor 1962, and nearly one-halt of the an1JMl and pulse protein Shortage.
COIIIDlUD.1st China alone has about one-half' of the an1w(l protein and fat sb.ortages, and
about 3 million tons of the 'wheat shortage.
The follow:1n8 table shows aRCh region's percentage of the total nutritional gap
projected for 1962 and its percentage of projected population tor the Southern Area:
- 5 ­
Southern Area
Latin America
Africa
West Asia
Far East
CCViJIII1Dj at Asia
Total.
Nutritional gap
Population
Percent
Percent
5.8
3.1
60.2
24.9
10j.0
9.7
11.7
3.7
42.0
32.9
100.0
6.6
The levels of consumption projected for Latin America, Africa, and West Asia for
both 1962 and 1966 show a substantial shortEl8e of wheat. However, consumption of
animal and pulse protein projected for Latin .America snd west Asia 1s nutr:ltionally
adequate, and. the fat shortage 1s small. Only minor shortages of the three nutrients
appear in A:f'rica.
The nutritional gap can be closed only by increased production of food and the
things that can be tl'!l.ded for food within the diet-deficit regions. Among the immense
problems faced by these regions in attaining this objective, the following three stand
out:
Low income per capita. Annual per-capita income for the Southern Area as a
whole in 1955-57 averaged $95 compared with $843 for the Northern Area. Within the
Southern P.rea, the avertlges were as follows: lAtin .America, $235; A:tr1ca and west
Asia, $137; Far East, l~ss Japan, $73; and COlIIIruIl1st Asia, $62. Eighty-five perc:ent
of the nutritional gap 1s in the Far East and CO!!J'ijlmist Asia where incaue is espe­
cia.l.ly low.
Low purchasing power per person makes it highly unlikely that the diet-deficit
regions can increase imports of foods beyond those projected. Low income reflects
the high concent:ration of population in agriculture--especia.lly subsistence agr1cul­
ture. FUr'l.iher economic devel.opnent, ;,,'ith increased urbanization and industrializa­
tion, will provide greater incentive as well as the means for farmers to expand pro­
duction for commerclal markets.
High ratio of POl'Ulat1on to land. The l1m1ted amount of arable land ava1l.able
in much of the food-deficlt area intensifies the prOii.J.em of increaSing food produc­
tion. The Far East has only 0.8 acre per person, and CODIIIUJl1st Asia only 0.4 aQre
cOillpBl"ed with 1.7 acres for the Northern Area as a whole. Arable land per capita in
these areas will shrink further as the population expands.
ihe amount of arable land per capita 1s much greater in Latin America, 1.3
acres, and in Africa and west Asia canb1ned, 2.3 acres. Furthermore, much more po­
tentisJ.ly arable land is ava1l.able in these regions than is now being used. This will
make possible increases in food production fran e~llSion. of the land base as well as
from increases in yields.
Lack of chemical fert1l1zer. Domestic production of chemical fertilizer in the
Southern Area in 1958 was only 0.6 kilogram per cap1.ta (plant nutrient basis) and 1.6
kilograms per hectare. This was far below the Northern. Area's averages of 27.9 kilo­
grams per capita and 40.3 kilograms per hectare. Huge investments in chemical ferti­
lizer plants will be required in the Far East and Cl'l1lIIIImist Asia before these regions
can substantially expand use of fertilizer to increase yields. S1lJ1larly, large in­
vestments will be needed for irrigation works and facilities to assure effective use
'Of plant nutrients.
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THE WORLD FOOD l'IUlXJl!r
1962 and 1966
WORLD ANALYSIS
This study' attempts to measure the foods produced and consumed
by the people of the world 1.n ~958, and as projected for 1962 and
1966. It fUrther assesses the ~acy of the consumption as
measured against nutritional reference standards. Inmense M:f:fi';'
cuJ.ties of statistical ccrmpllation and reconciliation beset this
study'. Many gape in needed information were encountered for which
informed estimates had to be made. The findings should be regarded
as a rough first approx1ma.tion of t,he world food budget.
In sUDlD8.l"izing the findings and in analyzing and assessing their
significance, it was found helpful to divide the world into tvo
parts; the Southern Area which includes two-thirds of the world
popuJ.at1on and all diet-deficit countries; and the industrialized
Northern Area which includes the remaining third of the population
and no diet-deficit country. The Southern Area occupies the land
space south of the 30th paraJ.lel, north latitude (excluding
Australia and New ZeaJ.and) and includes the l.ess -developed regions.
The Northern Area lies to the north of the parallel (excluding
Communist Asia and KOrea) and includes the industrlal.ized regions.
Introduction
0nJ.y in the most recent years of man's long struggle to safeguard his
:food supply has any large segment of the world '8 people escaped permanently
from the fear of maJ.nutrition and hunger. This JOOnumen.tal achievement has
occurred over the last ro years, and lOOre f'ully in the last 10 years, for a
third of the world's population - - tlx>se who live in the industrialized
countries of the Northern Area.
It is true, of course, that the food supply has been :reasonably adequate
in the United states, Canada, Australia, and New ZeaJ.and for a much longer
period, and in northwestern Europe for a somewhat shorter time. But only ill
recent years has the food supply of :Eastern Europe and Japan been fully
assured.
Note: All consUll1J?tion data in this study are based upon food balances
constructed for 1958 with the following exceptione: Western Europe 1957-58;
the S7V1et Union, most of other Eastern Europe, Australia, and New Zealand
1958-5:;.
7 ­
In the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand in the past
20 years, and in Europe and Japan since World liar II, resources on an in­
creasing scale. have been allocated f'or research and developnent in industry
and agriculture, and in facilities and services, including those serviCing
agriculture. In. agriculture, this has meant greatly increased yields per
acre, greater output per unit of'livestock, and higher' output per hour of
labor, particularly in the United States. Evidences of improvement are less
obvious in Eastern ]''uxope where agricuJ.tural. developnent has been encumbered
1iith the reorganization of farming in most couutries, many administrative
problems, and over-emphasis on industrialization.
What is new and indeed monumental is that the Northern Area has assured
the food supply f'or over 900 million people in the space of' two decades.
Moreover, barring deGtructive wars, the industrialized North now has the
technology and science, f'acilities and services, industrial and agricultural
plant, f'irlancial. resources, management know-how, and, :finally, the f'orward
thrust and dynamism to assure its f'ood supply permanently: on existing re­
sources. In addition, it bas been able to lend emergency f'ood assistance to
the less -developed regions. Si~if'icantl.y, the BengaJ. famine of 1942,.43 in
'Which over a million people died of starvation was the last great famine in
the Free World.
Continued assurance of a permanent f'ood supply is dependet\t, of' course,
as in the l~t two momentous decades, on well-supported programs of research
and developnent in agriculture. To assure that agricultural production in
the Northern Area keeps mving ahead of' population growth and that diffi­
culties attending attempts to increase yields proportionately are overcome:
it will be necessary to continue to allocate resources for research and
developmP~t at accelerated rates.
The hope noW' is that the Northern Area's achievement, which has been the
substance of man's dreams since the dawn of time and dwarfs into insignifi­
cance all achievements in outer space, may be extended rapidly to the re­
maining peoples of the earth, so that at the close of this century or sooner
no man need lie down hungry, or see his children waste away through mal­
nutrition.
The Northern Area possesses a highl.y developed industrial and agri­
cultural. plant and mst of' the 'WOrld's highly sk.1l1ed man:power and resources
of scientific and technical knowledge. This is reflected in per capita in­
come. For 1955-57, the average amrual per capita income of the 900 m1ll1.on
people in the Northern .Area was estimated at $843, ranging from $2,070 in
the United states to $230 in Japan (see table 1). For the 1. 9 billion
people in the less-developed Southern Area, income averaged only $95 per
person, varying from a h..1.gh of $235 in Latin America to a low of 462 for
Con:munist Asia.
Figures on agr1cu1.tural production from table 1 further point up the
differences. In 1958, the Northern Area with 32 percent of' the world's
population accounted for 52 :percent oX the value of world agricultural prc,­
Ctuction. Average per·capita vaJ.ue of :farm production was $94, ranging :f"rolll
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8 ­
Tablel.--Agricultural production: Total output and comparison with population, arable land, and
per-capita income, world by regions, 1958
Region
J:'roduct~on
X<:>p_ulation.Y
Arable lan~1
income
Total :Distri-:Production
:Distri:Distriper
value 4/:bution :per capita Total :bution
Total :bution capita 31
Mi1.dol. Percent
Dollars Millions Percent Mil.ha. Percent Dollars
SCI2:1:beJ:D AJ:ea
Latin America
Africa and West
Asia
Far East, less Japan11
Communist Asia
Total
\0
Northern Area
Western Europe
Eastern Europe il
United States
Canada
Japan
Australia and New Zealand Total
World total
II
15,275
9.1
79
193.1
6.7
102
7.3
235
15,450
23,925
26 910
81,560
9.2
14.2
16.0
48.5
49
31
40
42
314.7
766.0
675.0
1,948.8
11.0
26.7
23.5
67.9
290
257
112
761
20.8
18.3
8.0
54.4
137
73
62
95
26,275
23,900
26,475
2,550
3,575
15.7
14.2
15.8
1.5
2.1
86
74
152
150
39
303.8
322.8
174.2
17.0
91.7
10.6
11.2
6.1
0.6
3.2
97
277
188
41
6
6.9
19.9
13.5
2.9
0.4
657
474
2,070
1,430
230
3 1 775
86.1 550
2.2
51.5
307
94
12.3
921.8
0.4
32.1
28
637
2.0
45.6
1 075
843
168,110
100.0
59
I£,u/v.o
1,398
100.0
352
,,,
Q*Jf'\
/
100.0
L ___
Economic Research Service estimates based upon United Nations and other sources.
From FAO Production Yearbook, 1960, Vol. 14. Arable land and land under tree crops. This does
not include permanent meadows or pastures.
11 Average 1955-57. Estimates derived from official population and national income data of
respective countries, as reported to the United Nations.
~I From Table 3, World Agricultural Situation 1961, U. S. Dept. Agr. World market prices were
taken to be average 1953 wholesale or export prices in major exporting countries (e.g., Canada
for wheat, Thailand for rice, the United States for soybeans, Brazil for coffee, Australia for
wool, and Mexico for cotton).
51 Includes Pacific Islands.
~I Includes Soviet Union.
II
a high of' $301 for Austr alia and New ZeaJ.Rnd to a low of'
$39 for Japan . In
the South ern Area, 68 perce nt of the world t s popul ation
pro'du ced only- 118 per­
cent of total farm outpu t. The range 'WBS f'rom $19 for
Latin Ameri ca to $31
for the Far East.
The great differ ence in incom e--and conse quent ly in purch
asing power -­
betwe en the two 8J:''eas is re:f1e cte-d in equa.l l.y great differ
ences in the avaU ­
abili ty of publi c and priva te :facil ities and servi ces to
agric ultur e. This
is parti cular ly true for educa tion, conmnmicat:1on, trans
porta tion, and
elect ric pover . Diffe rence s in purch asing power and in
the avaU abUi ty of
foods also are refle cted in the da:lly energ y intak e, and
in the comp ositio n
and quali ty of the diets . The North ern Area has no seriOU
S overa ll proble ms
of provi ding its resid ents with a nutrit iona.l .J.y adequ ate
diet, excep t in
some :relativ~ smaJ.l :PSrts . In contr ast, the situa tion
is critic al. in
large parts of the South ern Area.
The two areas diffe r marke dly in their agric ultur al and
indus trial de­
ve10x ment. They diffe r also in clima te and in the natur
e of their soils .
The South ern Area is large ly semit ropic al or tropi cal,
the other tempe rate.
Both areas are mount ainous With large open flat space s,
but the North ern
Area has nDat of the best agric ultur al land. Much of the
South ern Area has
deple ted solls , low per-c apita. :farm outpu t, inade quate
diets , poor healt h
facU ities, a high degre e of 111it eracy , p:>or conmu m1cat
ions, low consu mer
purch asing power , and low per-c apita foreig n excha nge earni
ngs.
The quest ion arise s: Wby do these unfav orabl e condi tions
exist and
persi st in the South ern Area and not in the North ern?
To ~r in terms of
illite racy, the ravag es of disea se, and deple ted soUs
is only to descr ibe
the outwa rd symptomG of a deep- seated malaq y that has perva
ded the life of
the peopl es of' the South ern Area for centu ries. This malad
y is less per­
vasIv e, less debil itatin g today than it was 15 years ago.
World vital
stati stics clear ly subst antia te this. The death rate has
dropp ed preci pi­
tousl y throu ghout the South ern Area. D.1it eracy is dimin
ishing . SoUs are
being made JOOre produ ctive, thoug h very slowl y.
Settle ment of North Ameri ca and :parts of the South Ameri
can conti nent
re1ie\ "ed Europ e of much of the press ure of' popul .ation on
the food suppl y
betwe en 1600 and 1900. Emig ration 'W8S espec ially heavy
durin g the 19th and
el').rly :part of' the roth centu ries When 35 millio n Europ eans
came to the New
World . This made it poSSi ble, toget her nth the rapid
growt h of indus try
and commerce, ocean shipp ing, and food impor ts, for those
who remai ned
large ly to esc:ap e hunge r and persis ten'c maln utriti on, as
vell as the ravag es
of' endem ic and other disea ses o(!cas ioned by a contin uous
food intak e at the
Bubs1 atence level . Europ ean peopl es were enabl ed by the
mass exodu s and
indus trial develo pment to prese rve their vigor , vital
ity, and Will so
essen tial to advan cemen t in the arts and scien ces.
~e Europ eans who settle d in Canad a, the Unite d State
s, Argen tina,
Ul'Ugt1ay, and in the coast al regio ns of Brazi l, Chile
, and Peru f'ound vast
areas of'vi rgin, ferti le land which they organ ized into
produ ctive farms .
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10­
Those who occupied these vas·t areas bave had little or no experience with
the Pressures of population on the food supply.
In Australia and New Zealand, availability of natural resources has
been so favorable that food supply has been no problem. Cond!tiona have also
favored a su.stained gt'O\ith in per-capita income.
Japan is a special case in the Far East. Before 1854, Japan had been
largely isolated for some 2,000 years on four islands, and had been master
of' its desti:ny during that :period. It escaped the hordes of conquering
va.1ldaJ..s who swept back and forth over the Asian Continent for centuries.
T"Jle Japanese have husbanded their meager natural resources with pru­
dence. They rapidly developed industry and promoted food production by
large investments in irrigation, extensive research in agriculture, and by
building a fertilizer industry over a 70-year period that now produces 230
kilograms of plant nutrients for each hectare of arable land. Records show
that in each of the last 9 decades Japan bas increased its yield per hec­
tare of rice. ~e gains have been phenomenal over the last decade. In
contrast, the trend in Ind1.a was down until the last decade.
Such bas been Japan's economic gt'Outh that, despite the sharp rise in
population over the past 8 decades, its :people have long had a food intake
sufficiently high to sustain vigor and ·vitality. This is a marvel of the
world, considering the meager physical resources and density of population
o'f the Islands.
Conditions have been otherwise on the Continent of Asia south of the
Soviet border and in the detached areas of Southeast Asia, excluding Japan.
Half of the world I s popul.ation live here on a fourth of' the world I s arable
land. No marked induStrial developnent or mass outmigrations have relieved
the pressure of population on the food supply. Here for centuries, mass
starvation and death from endemic and other con.tagious diseases and from
wars have operated with uncompromising vigor periodiCally to reduce popu­
lation to the level of the available food supply.
There is little doubt that something approx:iJnating the Malthusian
theory operated in the area for centuries until the close of World War II.
The Bengal famine in India in 1942-43 was the last such great adjustment.
It is probable that similar but s:maJ.ler adjustments occurred over the
centuries until ver./ recent times in Africa, and in parts of Central and
South America inhabited largely by Indians.
Increasing productivity of world agriculture has relieved much of the
fear of famine in DX>st of the Southern Area, except Mainland China. However,
malnutrition arising from insufficient intake of food energy and of protein,
particularly anima.J protein, is widespread. This is manifested in pot­
bellied preschool children, reduced body Sizes, Wlderweight adolescents J
and adults much smaller and shorter-lived than well fed people.
- II ­
The conclusion drawn from this analysis is that the basic and deep­
rooted cause of the unfavorable situation in the Southern Area is a condition
in the peoples--a condition in which desire is thwarted, the 'Will blunted,
and the human frame literally robbed of its marrow. It is a result of
centuries of reeurr:tng famines and persistent malnutrition which have left
the people wanting in vigor, vitality, and the will to do things for them­
selves Wich they 'WOuld m:>re likely do if they had an adequate diet.
Trends in Production and PopuJ.ation
Agricultural production for the 'WOrld increar.;ed at an average annual.
rate of 1.8 percent during the 23-year period enUing in 1960-61 (see
appendix, table 23). This was slightly greater than the rate of population
growth so that output per capita increased an average of 0.3 percent per
year. LUring the 7 years ending in 1960-61, world production increased at
3 percent, resulting in an annual per-capita increase of 1 percent. Although
the disruptions of the war adversel:y' affected the long-time trend, much of
the increases over the last 7 years resulted f:rom substantial improvements
of a permanent nature.
Table 23 shows world agricultural production in terms of total. output-­
nonfood as well as food. Pss-t studies have indicated, however, that total
world production and world food production have shown virtually identical.
trends. For the less-developed Southern Area, agricultural production in­
creased 1.7 percent annual.ly over the 23 years but showed a slight annual.
decline in per-capita output. Latin America kept production just about even
with population growth; Af'rica and West Asia gained s11ghtly; but both the
Far East and Communist Asia lost ground With declines of 0.3 and 0.4 percent,
res:pectively.
For the recent 7-year period, production in the Southern Area increased
at an average annuaJ. rate of 2.9 percent, soowing an annual increase in per
capita of 0.6 percent. Am::>ng the four regions, three show fairly uniform
progress in increasing per-capita output. Two recent poor harvests in
Mainland China lowered sUbstantiaJ.ly the increase in per-capita output for
Communist Asia.
For the industrialized Northern Area, agricultural. production increased
1.9 percent annual.ly for the 23-year period, while per-eapita output rose
0.8 percent annually. For the more recent 7-year period, production has
increased annu.all.y at 3.1 percent and per-capita output at 1.6 percent.
The largest per-capita gains in output in the shorter period occurred
in Eastern furope, including the Soviet Union, and in cTapan. For the former
area, the average annual. per-capita increase was 2.7 percent and for Japan
4.9 percent. Much of this large increase for Eastem Europe can be accounted
for by the addition of more than 100 million new acres to the crop base of
the Soviet Union--the new lands east of the Volga. and the Urals. This was a
stagger:tng achievement: 90 of the 100 nrl.l1ion new acres were put into use
in the 3 years 1954-56.
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12
­
There are other potent 1.actors at work incl.uding a determined will to
lrove forward, and a vast store of scientific and teclmical know'ledge rein­
forced with a large and growing number of Skilled workmen. Potent factors
operating in the other direction incl.ude difficulties in the administration
of collective and state farms, a short growing season, and variable, un­
cer-tain rainfall. over large parts of the arable area. Except for cotton,
yields are law for a.U principaJ. cro:ps. To correct this, where it can be
corrected by soil amendments, the Soviets have in the making a greatly ex­
panded fertUizer industry.
Japan IS phenomenal advance in agricu2tu.ral prodUction in recent years
is unpl,oacedented. That country has become ~elf-suff'.tcient in rice and has
ceased to import barley.
Analysis of Resource Base
Now that the peoples of the Southern Area have largely become independ­
ent and have a future to make for themselves, what agricultural resources
are available to them and hov are they distributed?
In 1958, the Southern Area had 761 million hectares of arable land--54
percent of the world total--for the support of over t\-lO-thirds of' the 'WOrld
population. This is 0.4 hectare per capita against 0.7 hectare per capita
for the population of the Northern Area.
By regions, per-capita availabilities of arable land in the Southern
Area in 1958 were fairly favorable for Latin .AlIl:arica and for A:fr1ca and West
Asia--0.5 hectare and 0.9 hectare, respectively--and 'chese regions also have
much additional land that can be made arable. For the Far East, the com­
parable figure is a little over 0.3 hectare and for Communist Asia it drops
celow' 0.2 hectare. These regions have little additional land that can be
added to the arable lo:nd base.
In much of the Southern Area, especiEllly in the Far East, fertility of'
soils bas been depleted by cent~ies of use without soil amendments. This
is the primary cause of the low yields throughout the area. There is no
question that these soils can again be made more productive by proper till­
age, use of improved seeds, and application of proper amounts of fertilizer.
~'his is especiaJ.ly true on irrigated 80ils and on soils with reasonably
adequate rainfall.
Table 24 shows fertilizer production for the world, by regions, total,
'lAiO m:l.jor areas of the
world. Fertilizer availabilities t'rom domestic production in the Southern
krea WIlOimted to only 1. 25 million metric tons of plant nutrients for 761
million hectares of arable land in 1958.1 compared with 25.7 million tons for
637 million hectares of arable land for the industrialized Northern Area.
This computes at 0.6 kilogram per capita and 1. 6 kilograms per hectare for
the Southern Area against 27.9 kilograms per capita and 40.3 kilograms per
hectare for the Northern Area.
per capita, and :per hectare of arable land, for the
13 ­
o
One major reason wby the peoples of the Norlhern Area have an adequate
diet is that they have the plant nutrients to assure high production per
unit. There are other reasons, of course--high incomes, large investments
in agriculture, and available foreign exchange :for food imports. The
Southern Area 1s 1ikely to encounter great Cdfficulties in assuring an ade­
quate food supply until its fertilizer production has been greatly increased,
and put to use in combination 'With other improved farming practices.
The magnitude of this prab1em can be simply stated. For example, in
addition to the foods needed to cover the deficits in animal and pulse pro­
tein and fat, for the people o:f the Southern Area to have a diet equal to
the nutritional standard in 1962 they would need additional foods equivalent
to 29 million tons of wheat over the quantity projected for consumption from
domestic production and imports. To produce this quantity of wheat on arable
land present.J.y available would require roughly 3 million tons of plant nutri­
ents--two-thirds nitrogen and one-third phosphoric acid. '1."0 build "che re­
quired ferti1izer plants in the consuming regions at present construction
cost would require rou~ $1. 30 billion for nitrogen and $0. 35 billion for
phosphoric aCid, or a total. of $1. 65 billion.
This 1s for 1962. Farther into the future the food problem gets more
difficu1t. It has been estimated that India aJ.one, with its rapidly in­
creasing population, ll'DlSt have in being in 1975 a fertilizer '01tmt capacity
of 4 million tons of nitrogen and 2 million tons of P205 to assure its food
supply. India's present production capacity is about 200,000 tons of nitro­
gen and 50,000 tons of P205. India's Third Five-Year Plan calls for con­
struction .of new fertilizer plants having an additional capacity of 800,000
tons of nitrogen and about 400,000 tons of P205'
The World Food Budget for 1958
The statistical. bases for determining the foods consumed by the 'WOrld
population in 1958 are the Department of Agriculture IS published food
balances for the countries of the Free World, and published and unpublished
food balances for Communist Bloc countries. These food balance estimates
summarize the food supply situation of a country or area by commodity or
groups of cOJIlllOdities f'or the consumption year 1958. The availabilities of
food per capita per day were then translated on a national basis into
ca.lorie, protein, and fat content. Levels of' cons'Ull1l:--rti-on are giV211 as
weighted averages by major regions in table 2. These ayerages are some'Wila.t
JDisleading in Latin America, Africa, and West Asia whel'c a few countries
with high consumption levels have sufficient weight to raise the regional
ave::c-age above the standard even though many countries in these regions have
diet deficiencies. National food consumption levels by country are given
in table 22.
In order that nutritional defici~cies in the diets of the countries
and regions could be estimated, it was necessary to have nutritional refer­
ence standards. The calorie ref'erence standards represent physiological
requirements for normaJ. activity and health, taking account of regional
- 14­
-<-;
,
,
I
I
,
variations in environmental temperature, body weights, and the distribution
by age and sex of the nationaJ. population.
Table 2. --Food consumption:
:raily average per capita levels, by regions, 1958 Country or
re~on Canada
Latin America
Meditel"l"aIlean :furope
other Western
Europe
Soviet Union
Other Eastern :Countries:
:
Protein
:Calo:ries: in
region
:An1ma.l.: Pulse
other
·:
·
· Number
·· 20
·· ·
Grams
Grams
Grams
Grams
62
24
2
9
30
33
66
94
138
4
2,660
25
6
44
75
74 12
3,040
2,985
48
1
3
32
63
81
120 26
92
70 3
5
10
12
15
5
5
47
55
43
36
44
78
73
63
56
65
103
83 7
7
·
·· G.ra.m3
Fat
2,640
u
Europe
West Asia
Africa
Far East
Communist Asia
Oceania
United States
Number
.. Total 2l
II
4
2
3,080
2,925
2,365
2,454
2,100
2,200
3,210
3,220
23
13
11
8
6
67
66
31
26
97
60 40 44 32 32
136 149
The calorie standards va:ry from 2,300 for the Far East and Communist Asia to 2,710 caJ.ories for Canada and the Soviet Union. -The refi~rence stand­ ard for total protein--uniform f'or al.l countries and regions--consists of 60 grams per capita per day with a mininrum of 17 grams of animal end pulse pro­ tein of which an1maJ. protein sOOuld not be 1esa than 12 percent of the totaJ.., or about 7 gr&llS. The reference standards for fat are e::pressed in terms of the 8lOOunt that would provide 15 percent of standard calories. A IOOre de­ tailed diSCUSSion of the nutritionaJ. reference standards Will be found in the appendi'K under Methodology-. Figure 1 sbmrs that total calOries consumed in 1958 were, on the whole,
low for many cO'.mtries of West Asia, N:>rthern and Eastern Africa, the Far
East, and Mainland China (see also table 22). This is also true for Central
America (excluding Costa Rica) and the island republics of the Caribbean
(excluding Cuba), as well as for BoliVia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Paraguay,
and Venezuela, even though the reglonal average for Latin America does not
disclose it. In these less-developed countries, there exist critical. die­
tary deficienc1es that tend to make these populatiOns vulnerable to certain
diseases, particularly those associated with deficiencies of protein and of
vitamins and mineraJ.s provided by the foods that are ePOd sources of anima.J
protein.
- 15 ­
!
IJ.S.
>EG. ERS )90-6118) ECO.o." RESE'RCH SERVICE
Figure 1 u. s.
_",a"olol'C RESE.lA;Ctl SERVICE
Figure 2 36 C(., I
o
~--~
t;:-- T~
~
I
I
\
'r
\
.•. \
u.s.
i
i
--,"
J
I
... u
I
t"
T
If
,
-til ~'-- . I!' (
~
I.
\
I
U
('
\
A
.\
\
I
Each dot r~prese~ts
20,000 metdc: ton~ OlPARlw.EHT OF AGRICULTURE
kEG.
Figure 3
Figure 4
17 ERS }87-6U6J ECOMONIC RESEARCH SERVICE
A mre detailed discussion of the dietary situation by regions will be
found in the regional s~ctions of this report.
For the Northern Area, a comparison of nutritional reference standards
with consumption levels disclosed in the 1958 food baJ..s.nce estimates shows
that national. average per-capita consum::ption exceeded the standards in all
countries of Eastern Europe (including the Soviet Union) and all countries
of Westem Europe (including the Meditel"'rSllean area), as well as in Canada,
the United States, Australia, and New Zealand. }.bst countries in the
Southern Area, on the other band, fell short of the reference standards (see
table 22). In short, the Northern Area presents no serious overall. dietary
problem, although food is not al.ways equitably distributed within cmmtries
of the area. The Southern krea, however, presents a most serious food prob­
lem which is bY' far JOOst pronounced in the Far East (see figures 2, 3, and 4)..
The l-lorld Food Budget for
1962
and
1966
To construct a world food budget for 1962 and 1966 it was necessary to
project agricultural. production bY' country, and bY' commodity for all coun­
tries, and to project population numbers for all countries for the same
years. It was fUrther necessar,y to determine food requirements for the diet­
deficit countries in accordance with the nutritional reference standards, and
to determine requirements for the countries whose people have nutritionaJJ.y
adequate diets bY' projecting effective demand. A detailed discussion of the
methodology used in these projections will be found in the appendix. The
population projections appear in table 21.
For convenience and ease of understanding, the nutritional deficiencies
f~ commodities
widely known and used throughout the world. Deficiencies in animal protein
are expressed in terms of nonfat dry milk and those in pulse protein in term.s
of dry beans and peas. Deficiencies in both "otherll protein and in calories
are expressed in terms of wheat, and those for fat in terms of vegetable oil.
The deficiencies could be satisfied by many other commodities which, in some
instances, can DE! mI'e easily produced in diet-d.ef'1cit countl"ies than the
comm::>d1ties used in describing the deficiencies.
in the diet-deficit countries are expressed in ter.ms of a
After proj ecting food requirements and food production for 1962 and
for all countries J account was taken of no:rmaJ. food 1.mp:)rts into the
countries, including those under concessional terms in recent years. Careful
thought was given to additional. food requirements in countries where this
need existed, and 'eo faciliti~s for receiving additional imports and distri­
buting them effectively within the cotmtries. Thought 'WllS aJ.so given to the
disposition of Goveruments of diet-deficit countries to increase imports to
satisfY nutritio~~ deficienCies.
1966
The pro.1ected 'World food budget fo!' both 1962 ane'!. 1966 f'or the Northern
Area takes account of trends toward inl!reasing per capita consumption of
animD.l products and decreasing consumption of certain starchy foods. These
trends are occurring in both l-Testern and F..a.stern Europe.
- 18
,
Tables 3 end 4 su.mma.rize requirements) production} a.n<l import needs or
export avai.labilities :for the world by regions J f'or 1958 and projected to
1962 and 1966, for ':,.rhee.t, c1ry bean.,s and peas, nonfat dry" rnilkJ and vegetable
oil--the four commodities in which dietary deficiencies are expressed in this
study. Table 25 provides similar iDfonnation for dce and coarse grains.
Because of the importance of cotton and tobacco in world agriculture and in
international trade in farm products, the same table provides similar in:for­
mation for these two p~ducts.
The United States and Canada are the only nations in the 'WOrld with
suff'lcient excess production over domestic needs and Vith su:f:ficient finan­
cial resources to maintain reserve food stocks. These stocks are largely in
wheat. They constitute the ch:f.ei' safeguard to the food supply of dtet­
defi.cit nations in cases of natural. catastrophies.
If' such reserve f'ood stocks were not maintained, the great droughts and
fioods which have occurred periOdically throughout history, and which 'We
have every reason to expect Will continue to occur, could cause famines of
tragic proportions 8JlK)ng the hundreds of millions of people whose food supply
is unassu.red. It is for these and other reasons that wheat as a food and as
a reserve food stock assumes such prominence in this study.
Wheat. --T.h.e term "consumption" as used in table 3 and the other cottllOOd­
i ty tables means total food and nonfood uses. For wheat this means total
apparent domestic disappearance. J.n 1958, the wo:dd produced 239. 4 ~:l.l~ion
metric tons of' Wheat of' which 217.3 million were consumed in all U8e~~
leaving 22.1 million tons for a.ddition to stocks. For 1962, production is
projected at 231. 5 million tons, ·total use or consumption at 232,7 million
tons, leaving 1. 2 million tone to be drawn from stocks. For 19(6) production
is projected at 245.4 million tons, consumption at 250.2 million tons,
leaving 4.8 million tons to be drawn :from stocks. Over a 5-year period
surplus stocks would be drawn down approximately 15 million tons.
An additional 29.8 million tons of wheat wouJ.d have been required in
1958 to raise consumption of' "other" :protein and of calories to the nutri­
tional reference standards in the diet-deficit cotmtries. The quantities
needed in 1962 would be 29.1~ million tons, and in 1966, 29.3 million tons.
Imports of wheat by the less-developed countries are projected to in­
crease f'rom n.7 million tons in 1958 to 20.8 million in 1962 and to 25.3
million tons in 1966. These tonnages 'WOUld permit slightly increased per­
capita consumption of wheat but would leave diets still short of' the nutri­
tional standard. The importing countries are assumed to be able and willing
to receive and effectively distribute these tonnages.
If' the proj~cted consumption of wheat should be realized, per-capita
consumption in kilograms by region and :for the 'WOrld would be as follows:
-
19
­
"I
!
I
1958
~
1966
57·7
35·6
165.9
31.4
40.3 59·3
36.6
168.3
33·9
- . Kilograms
Diet-deficit re~ions
Latin America.
Africa
West Asia
Far East
Conmunist Asia
Average
57·0
33.0
159·6
z-,·5
-4H
39·
Other r~~ns
Canada 1
United states Western Europe
Soviet Union
Other Eastern Europe
Australia and New Zealand
Average World average zro.6
95·9
150.0
233.2
160·5
1]/.5
1 3.5
75·7
248.6
85.3
151.0
220.6
166·9 180·7
159·0
75·5
240.0 85.8
151.2 218.3 167.5
178.8 158.5 75.4
o~ the amount shown for 1958, about 62 kilograms was net consumption of
food. This amount is expected to decline slightly by 1962 and 1966.
World: Supply and distribution of wheat
MILLION METRIC TONS
50
100
150
200
1/ Cons~rnption
consumptjon
~
. . / to mee&
..• ,
nutritiona I
standard
Production
1958~~~~~~~~~~
1962 . . . . . . . .~~. .~~~
1966~~~~~~~~~~~
U,"S. OEPART14ENT OF AGRICULTURE
NEG. ERS 351-61 (8)
Figure 5
-
20
­
i
I
~
3·7
42.4
17
o
o
ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE
i
,!
Table
Commodity
and region
WHEAT
Diet-deficit regions
Latin America
Africa West Asia
Far East Communist Asia Total ~ Requizements, production, and import need or export availability, v~rld by regions,
1958 and projected to 1962 and 1966
1958
1962
1966
Requirements :
ReqUirements
:
: Import need or export Requirements
:
: Import need or export
:
:
: avai1abilit~ (-) :
:
availabilit~ (-)
Esti- :To meet: ITo meet : p
:For
: To meet
For
For
:To meet : p
: For
: To meet
mated :nutri- : Pro-
ro
pro:nutri-: d ro - :projected: nutri­
pro:nutri- : d - : projected: nutricon- :tiona1: d~c- . ted
t'
1
uc.
Jec
: 10na
: t.
:consump-: t10na1
jected :tional : t~C- ,consump- : tional
sump- :stan- I t10n consump-:stan: 10n :tion
: stan­
con
sump-: stan: 10n: tion
~ stan­
tion :dard
:
tion
:dard
:
:
: dard
tion
:dard
:
:
: dard
3 .--Wheat and dry beans and peas:
--- --
11.0 13.5
7.9 10.4
12.0 13.6
23.5
43.5
26.7
29.8
81.1 110.8
other regions Canada 4.6
United States
16.7
Western Europe 45.2
Soviet Union
48.7 Other Eastern Europe 18.3
Oceania 2.7
Total 136.2
\\brld total
217.3
DRY BEANS AND PEAS
Diet-deficit regions Latin America Africa West Asia
Far East
Communist Asia
Total
Other regions Canada
United States Western Europe
Soviet Union
Other Eastern Europe
Oceania Total 11
Vorld total
Less than 50,000.
- - -
4.6
16.7
45.2
48.7
18.3
2.8
136.3
247.1
3.0
3.0 4.8
5.0
.9 .9
14.1 14.2
12.2
12.2
35.0
35.3 .1
.8
2.7
1.1
.5
.1 .8
2.7 1.1
.5
11
!I
5.2
40.2
5·2
40.5
--
- -- - -
-- - -- --
Million metric tons
10.2
5.9
11.4
15.3
26.6
69.4
12.4
9.2
13.7
29.1
29.2
93.6
15.1
11.5
15.0
49.4
32.0
123.0
72.8
10.1
39.8
37 .3
62.8
14.0
_6.0
170.0
239.4
4.6
15.9
46.8
49.1
19.7
3.0
139.1
232.7
4.6
15.9
46.8
49.1
19.7
13.3
29.9
38.5
54.4
16.3
2.8
4.8
.9
12.8 12.2 33.5
_~.J.
139.2
262.2
3.4
3.4
5.3 5.4
1.0 ~ 1.0
17.0
17.1
13.1
13.1
39.8
40.0 .1
1.1
2.5
1.1
.5
~
5.3
6.7
38.8
46.5
.1
.8
2.8
2.4
.6
V
.1
.8
2.8
2.4
.6
1) 6.7
46.7
10.5
6.0
12.5
18.6
25.2
~~
158.7
231.5
3.3
5.4
1.0
17 .0 13.1 39.8
.1
.9
2.5
2.4
.7
V
6.6
46.4
­
- -
--
- -
----- -- --
- -
---
- - -
1.9
3.2
1.2
10.5
4.0
20.8
4·6
5.5
2.5
30.8
6.8
50.2
14.2
10.2
15.3
34.2
31.1
105.0
16.8
12.5
16.6
53.9
34.4
134.2
11.5
6.4
13.9
21.8
26.1
79.7
2.7
3.8
1.4
12.4
5.0
25.3
5.3
6.1
2.7
32.1
8.3
54.5
-8.7
-14.0
8.3
-5.3
3.4
-a. 3
-19.6
1.2
-8.7
-14.0
8.3
-5.3
3.4
-:3..2
-19.5
30.7
4.8
17 .1
48.1
51.6
20.4
13.8
29.9
41.2
56.6
17.4
145.2
250.2
4.8
17.1
48.1
51.6
20.4
3.3
145.3
279.5
165.7
245.4
-9.0
-12.8
6.9
-5.0
3.0
-3.6
-20.5
-9.0
-12.8
6.9
-5.0
3.0
-3.5
-20.4
4.8
34.1
3.8
5.7
1.1
19.3
14.2
44.1
3.8
5.8
1.1
19.4
14.2
44.3
3.7
5.8
1.1
19.2
14.2
44.0
.1
-.1
11
11
11
.1
.1
1.1
2.5
3.5
.7
0
-.3
.3
0
-.1
0
-.1
0
-.3
.3
0
-.1
0
-.1
.1
-.1
J/
0
0
J/
;,;
-.1
.3
0
-.1
0
.1
.1
.1
11
11
.1
0
.2
11
-.1
.3
0
-.1
0
.1
.3
~.2
.1
.8
2.8
3.5
.6
V
7.8
51.9
.8
2.8
3.5
.6
!L
7.8
52.1
...Q..8
.v
7.9
51.9
.1
0
.1
.1
.2
0
.3
CJ
.2
~~ans and Peas.--Pulse protein deficiency in world consumption is
small. This de~iciency occurs primarily ill West Afiica and Southeast Asia.
Most o~ the pulses are consumed in the regions o~ production and only smEll1
quantities move in international trade between regions (see table 3). Pro­
duction and consumption, which are in close balance, are pl~jected to rise
:£"rom 40 million tons in 1958 to 52 million in 1966:
If the Drojected consumption o~ pulses should be realized, per-capita
consumption by regions and f'or the vorld ...ould be H~ J~ollo","S:
1958
Diet-de~icit re~ons
Latin America
Africa
West Asia
Far East
CoIlIllJWlist Asia
Average
otber regions Canada. United states
Western Europe
Soviet Union
O:';her ~tern Europe
Au..:~tralia and New Zealand
A'Vb:~ge
World average
~
- - Kilograms
~
15· 5
20.0
12.0
16.5
18.1
17.2
15.8
20·5
12.1
18.3
18.1
18.0
15·9
20.4
12.1
19·2
18.1
18..liO
5·9
4.6
8.9
5·3
4.4
1.3
5.4
4·3
9·0
10.8
5·1
1·3
5.0
4.0
8.8
14.8
4.9
1.2
14.0
15·1
6.2
i."1
--n
15.6
Non~at D!:y Milk. --Table 4 show "the production and utilization of non-.
fat d:ry milk for the world by regions for 1958 and projected for 1962 and
1966. Nearly all non~a.t d:ry m:f.lk is produced, and about three-fourths is
consumed, in the No~hern Area. This is an expen~ive food in relation to the
purchasing power of' the lower-income people of Asia and Africa wbose need f'or
this product is greatest because of an1mal protein deficiency in tbeir diets.
For this reason, it is difficult to increase consumption except through
school lunch a:Qd other mass-feeding programs. Consumption of nonfat dry
milk in the Southern Area in 1958 is estimated at 208,000 metric tons, and is
projected to 330,000 tons in 1962 and 479,000 tons t.v. 1966. However, this
increase satiSfies 0~1y a small part of th~ ~imal protein deficiency in the
diets of the 1ess-devt~10ped regions, excluding Latin America.
The increased consumption is so small on a per-capita basis that it is
For the world, pe.r~·cap1ta consumption rises
:from nearly one-third in 1958 to one-half kilogram for both 1962 and 1966.
The Southern Area shows only one-tenth kilogram consumed in 1958, no change
:ror 1962, and only tiro-tenths for 1966. Per-capita consumption is about 3
kilograms per year in the United States, where about 60 percent of all non­
tat d.ry milk is produced and 40 perce.nt consumed.
hardly measurable in kilogx-ams.
22 ­
Table 4.--Nonfat dry milk and vegetable oils:
Commodity
and
region
NONFAT DRY MILK
Diet-deficit regions
Latin America
Africa
West Asia
Far East
Communist Asia
Total
m
Other regions
Canada
United States
Western Europe
Soviet Union
Other Eastern Europe
Oceania
Total
ilbrld total 21
VB3ETABLE OILS
Diet-deficit regions
Latin America
Africa
West Asia
Far East
Communist Asia
Total
Requirements, production, and import need or export availability, world by regions,
1958 and projected to 1962 and 1966
1958
1962
1966
:
:Import need or export
Requirements I
Requirements
:
: Import need or export
Requirements
I
:availability (-)
I
: availability (-)
:
Esti­ :To meet; Pro­ For
:To meet : p
:For
: To meet
I To m~et
For
: To m~et: Pro­ : For.
mated Inutri.­ : duc­ pro­
:nutri-: dro - :projected : nutri­
pro­
:nutrl-: d
: proJected: nutrl­
con­ :tional: tion jected :tional : t~C- :consump­ : tional
jected ,tional: t~C- : consump­ : tiona1
sump­ :stan­ :
: lon: tion
: stan­
consump-: stan­
consump-:stan­ : lon: tion
: stan­
tion :dard
:
tion
:
:dard
:
I dard
tion
:dard
:
:
: dard
--­
- - --
58
4
10
136
0
20'3
68
108
10
807
683
1,676
51
433
288
0
0
16
788
996
- -­ 1.0
1.7
.4
3.7
1.4
8.2
­- -­ - -- ­- -­ -­ -6
3
0
12
0
21
51
86
433
776
288
204
0
0
0
0
21
77
793 1,143
2,469 1,164
88
50
112
180
C
330
56
578
441
0
1.0
2.5
.3
4.7
1.4
9.9
10
5
11
14
0
29
-- - -­ --­ -- --­ - - --­ - -­ -­-
ton~
78
45
12
166
0
301
78
134
12
880
715
1~819
110
87
14
268
0
479
-44
-375
85
-44
-375
85
0
65
669
556
0
C
0
110
14
151
14
966
6
11
no
16
0
2,031
36
120
1,043
463
0
0
160
1,786
1,822
17
1,092
56
578
441
0
0
22
1,097
C
0
0
116
1,525
-99
-433
-94
-428
18
1,308
65
669
556
0
0
23
1,313
1,422
2,945
1,554
-132
1,391
1,787
3,344
0
----­ - ­ ---­
1.1
2.0
.5
5.2
2.9
11.7
88
139
12
894
715
1,848
Thousand metric
1.2
2.0
.5
4.6
1.4
9.7
- -
100
953
356
0
-- - -
1.2
2.1
.6
6.1
3.1
13.1
1.1
3.0
.3
5.4
1.4
11.2
Million metric tons
.1
.2
-1.0
-1.0
.2
.2
-.8
.8
0
1.7
-1.5
1.9
-
96
81
14
252
0
443
96
145
14
950
790
1,995
-55
-374
93
-55
-374
93
0
0
0
-142
-478
0
-137
-473
-35
1,522
-1.4- ­ - ­ - - - - ­ - - - - ­ - - - - ­ - 2.2
.6
5.3
1.4
10.9
1.4
2.2
.6
6.6
3.3
14.1
1.3
3.4
.4
5.8
1.4
12.3
.1
-1.2
.2
-.5
0
-1.4
.1
-1.:2
.2
.8
1.9
1.8
Other reoions
Canada
.2
.2
.1
.2
.2
.1
.1
.1
.2
.2
.1
.1
United States
.1
2.2
2.2
3.6
2.4
2.4
4.4
-2.0
-2.0
2.5
2.5
5.1
-2.6
-2.6
Western Europe
4.0
4.0
1.3
4.3
4.3
1.2
3.1
3.1
4.5
4.5
1.3
3.2
Soviet Union
3.2
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.5
.3
.3
2.0
2.0
1,.8
.2
.2
Other Eastern Europe
.7
.7
.3
.8
.5
.9
.9
.5
.4
Oceania
J,/
.1
V
JJ
V
J,/
Toial
U'
1/
V
8.!:l
!:l.8
7.\1
9.5
9.5
7.7
1.8
1.8
10.1
10.1
8.8
1.3
1.3
\'obr Id total
17.0
20.5 16.9
19.2
22.6
18.9
.3
3.7
21.0
24.2
21.1
-.1
3.1
11 Less than half the unit.
21 Consumption data do not include some substantial quantities that move under relief shipments and are not recorded in impOrt statistics.
if
J
iJ
it
Ve~table Oil.--A dietar,y deficiency in fat is Widespread throughont
the Sou ern Area, though in -terms of' tot.mages over 90 percent of the de­
ficiency appears tn COlJllIWlist Asia and in the Far East, excluding those
countries ,;rhich are heavy producers of' coconut products. It also appears in
Central. Alwi~rica, including Haiti; and in Ecuador, BoliVia, and Peru in South
America; Turkey, Lebauon, Syria, and Jordan in West Asia; and in North and~~st
Africa, Tanganyika, Kenya, and the Republic of' the Congo. Table 4 shows
that in 1958 the 'WOrld produced 16.9 million tons o:f vegetable 011 and con­
sumed 17 IIliUion tons. For 1962, production is projected at 18.9 million
tons and consumption at 19.2 million tons. For 1966, production rises to
21.1 million tons and COnsumption to 21 million.
Africa, the Far East, Communist Asia, and tb~ United States are the principal world producers of vegetable oU. Produ~tion and export avail­ abilities are expected to increase in the United States and Ai'rica. In the Far East, however, consumption is expected to increase lOOre than production. In Co.nmm!st Asia, both production and consumption have been projected at
1958 levels.
Per capita consumption in kilograms of' vegetable oil by regions and 1'or
the 'WOrld is shown below:
~
Diet-deficit re~ons
La.tin America Africa
West Asia
Far East
COJImUllist Asia.
Average
other regions Canada. Un!ted States
Western Europe
Soviet Union
other Eastern Eu.rope
Australia and New Zealand
Average
World ave.mge
5·2
7·1
5·3
4.3
2.1
1962
- Kilograms
5.6
7·7
6.1
5·0
1.9
!2§.f
5.8
7.. 9
6.6
5.3
1.8
4.0
~
4.5
11.8
12.6
13.3
8.1
6.1
2.6
10.6
10.8
12·9
13.8
8.1
6.8
2·5
10·9
6.2
10.0
12.5
14.0
8·5
7·4
2.4
5.9
rr:o
6·3
The }m~ri!!2!1al._Q2.l'~d ~a.~~<! ~1>1~
The quantities of specified foodstuf'fs required to raise projected
levels of consumption in 1962 and 1966 to the levels requil'e(l to satisfy
nutritional standards in the diet-deficit regiona are shown jln table 5.
Animal Protein. --The reference standard for animal p:rotE~in is 7 grams
per day per person or about 12 percent of the total protein. This is a
mi.nimum. Where a defiCiency occurs it may be criticaJ. for it affects 10Yer
- 24 ­
income persons, and JOOst adversely preschool children and pregnant and lac­
tating IOOthers--those most in need of this food nutrient.
Table 5.--Dietary defiCiencies of diet-deficit regions not satisfied by pro_
jected consumption for 1962 and 1966
other protein and.:Fat in terms
calories in 'cerms :of vegetable
of Wheat
oil
of'
Latin
America
Af'rica
West Asia
Far East Connnunist
Asia
TotaJ.
·
·
1962
- - -­
- 1,000 metric tons
0
89
0
714
0
64
0
698
0
69 0
81
715
790
1,518 1,552
0
75 0
1966
: 1962 : 1966
- - - -
90
2,114
2,365
1,283
20,285
2,665
2,361
1,297
19,735
lI8
1,568
15
1,299
0
0
2:710
3z 250
1:660
lz8?~
150
165
29,357
29,308
3,345
3,232
49
38
20
20
In the projected 1962 and 1966 food budgets, animal :protein shortages
appear only in scattered areas in Central and West Africa J in India and
Indonesia, and in Communist Asia. 1"he deficiency ranges from about 1 gram
in Nigeria, India, and Communist Asia to 3 grams in Indonesia] and 4 graI!lR in
Liberia. Because of iuadequate purchasing power of lower income groups and faulty distribution of foodstuffs within countries, de~icits may be more serj.oUB than indicated by the foregoing figures. The tonnages fbr these regions expressed. in terms of nonfat dry milk a-re shown in table 5. As is shown in table 4, world. production or nonfat dr.Y" milk only slight­
ly exceeds consumption. Canada and the United States, and Australia and New
Zealand account for all excess production by region over domestic consumption.
If larger shipments from surplus to diet-defici.t regions are to occur)
production in surpJ.us regions Will have to be increased proportionally.
Such an increase would probably be used primarily in expanding school lunch
programs. Such programs do not !-each the persons JOOst in need of animal
protein.
Countries With animal. protein shortages would be exceedingly reluctant
to establish and operate count:rywide i'ree food distribution programs. If'
the required animal protein is to be consumed by those JOOst in need, pur­
chasing power of' consumers must be increased. This can come about only
through. further economic developnent. As such developnent occurs every
attempt should be made to increase the et£lciency of milk production and to
expand the fisheries industry. Much can be done on both approaches in all
animal protein shortage areas, :par-Ucularly milk in India and fisheries in
Indonesia.
''.\..'
Pulse Protein.--T.be reference standard for pulse p~tein is an amount
which when added~to available animal protein equals 17 grams. This prote1n
supplements cereal protein and is .especially important :in the diet when
animal protein is less than 17 grams.
A deficiency in pulse protein in 1962 appears only in Ceylon at 5 grams,
in Malaya and Thailand, each at about 1 gram, and in scattered areas of
Central and Western Africa, ranging f'rom about 1 gram in Nigeria to 7 grams
1n Liberia. The pulse protein deficit in 1962, expressed in terms of d.ry
beans and peas, is 69,000 tons for Africa and 81,000 tons for the Far East.
Somewhat larger tonnages are indicated for 1966.
Pulse protein shorthges could perhaps best be met by increasing pro_
ductiol\ in the deficit regions. This does not appear to pose any formidable
problems. It may be noted that Thailand is a substantial exporter of pulses
and Nigeria of peanuts. In both count~ies the shorta.ge in consumption ap­
pears to relate lOOre to low personal income, faul.ty internal distribution,
and government ex.port policy than to a shortage of supply.
lIother" Protein and Calories. --The reference standard for total .,protein
The standard for calories varies t'rom 2,300 for the Far East
and Communist Asia to 2,710 for Canada. and the Soviet Union. Deficiencies
in "other" protein (protein other than animal and pulse) and in calories are
expressed in terms of wheat.
:i.s
60 grams.
In the projected 1962 and 1966 food budgets, calorie shortages occur in
and "other" protein shortages in 31 of the 60 less-developed countries
and areas included in this study. The two shortages generaJ.1y occur togeth­
er in the same country. PrincipaJ. exceptions are the nine countries and
areas of Central and Western Africa where no caJ.orie shortage occurs, but
where animal. and pulse protein and fat shortages are w:i.despread. The reason
for this is that in this tropical area cassava, other root crops, bananas,
and plantains are generaJ.ly plenti:f\JJ. so that food energy sources are
readily at hand.
36,
Calorie and "other" protein shortages, expressed in terms of wheat,
total over 29 million tons for both 1962 and 1966 (see table 5). The 1962
food budget for the five diet-deficit regions includes 93.6 million tons of
wheat from domestic production and 20.8 million :from imports, including
accelerated concessional purchases and grants. This is 9.1 millton tons
more wheat than the regions imported in 1958. The 1966 food budget provides
for imports of 25· 3 million tons. These tollt'.8.ges are about as much as these
regions can and are 'Willing to receive and move into consumption. The re­
maining deficit therefore of over 29 million tons for each of the 2 years
cannot be further reduced by imports. Even if' it could, it would seem un­
Vise to create dependence on outside sources for a larger sbare of the food
supply.
The diet-deficit regions should therefore be encouraged and assisted to
increase their own. wheat and other cereal production, first to erase the
nutritional shortage., e.nd then to reduce imports. It is only by such means
-
26
that the diet-deficit nations can assure the food supply essential for their
survival, and establish the conditions necessar,y for econOMic growth and ad­
vancement of their material. well-being.
In the densely populated Far East, where land resources are limited,
population is expanding rapidly, and the nutritional deficit in "other" pro­
tein and in calories in terms of wheat is 20 million tons. Ever-increasing
availabil1ties of plant nutrients and larger and larger expenditures for
irrigation Will be necessary to increase cereal production sufficiently to
erase this deficit. OVer the next 15 years, this means the expenditure of
some $3 billion for construction of fertilizer plants and a s1m11ar expendi­
ture for irrigation 'WOrks.
Fat. --The reference standard for fat is the amount that will provide 15
perceIrt;of standard calories. This is regarded as a nutritional. floor rather
than a desirable standard. For the Southern Area, the standard ranges from
38 grams per person per day for the Far East and Conmnmist Asia to 42 gt'BmS
for Latin .America.
This nutritiona! soortage occurs in Z7 of the 60 countries studied in
the Southern Area. The total deficit expressed in terms of vegetable oil is
3.3 million tons in 1962 and 3.2 m111ion in 1966. The shortage is prima.riJ.y
in the Far East and Comrmmist Asia (table 5).
The Far East, which shows a shortage in consumption of 1.6 million tons
in 1962 and 1. 3 mUlion in 1966, is the world's third largest net exporter
of vegetable oil and oil-bearing seeds and materials, exceeded only by the
United states and Africa (table 5). The major Far East exporting countries-­
M9J.aya, the PhiJ.ippines, IndoneSia, and Ceylon--do not show shortages in
consumption. In the remaining countries, therefore, the problem appe!U"S to
be lack of foreign exchange for imports and lack of consumer purchasing
power.
In countries where effective demand for vegetable oil is weak because
of a relatively high price compared to other food and living necessities,
imports of vegetl'tble oil under concessional terms would only increase the
oil consumption of those whose present intake is probably well above the fat
standard. This 'WOuld leave persons "With a fat shortage genera.lly unaffected.
Since fat-deficit countries are unlikely to engage in count::rywide free
food distribution programs, the problem can only be resolved by increases in
personal income through economic deve1opnent. Such increases will tend to
spur production of vegetable oil within the countries and may also encourage
further imports.
It ~ be generally concluded from this analysis that nutritional short­
ages are closely related to low per-capita production of food and goods that
can be traded for food. These shortages can only be erased by substantial
and sustained increases in agriculturaJ. production that make for balanced
economic development in the diet-deficit regions themselves.
- 'Z7 ­
WESTERN HEMISPHERE Canada
Canada has ample supplies of food to' meet its nutritional. requirements
for calories, fat, and protein, and to export grains, live cattle .• and other
products. Increasing farm output, together with imports, is likely to main­
tain the diet of the growing population at a high level in the years to come.
Supported by an advanced technology, Canadian farmers have produced
around 50 percent lOOre in the last decade than before the war, though output
has fluctuated considerably because of variable grmnng conditions. Further
increases w1ll be encouraged by mechanization, greater use of agricultural
chemicals, large-scale irrigation and land reclamation projects, and govern­
mental incentives. As in the United states, riSing efficiency has resulted
in movement of population from rural. to urban areas. Canada's agricultural
labor force declined from 36 percent of the total labor force in 1933 to
only 12 percent in 1959.
Grains are Canada's major export J particularly high protein wheat of' the
milling grades. kn. average of 60 percent of the wheat, 30 percent of the
barley, and nearly 10 percent of the oats produced in the period 1950-58
were exported. Shipments of feed grains, animal protein, pulses, and other
vegetable$ have tended ~J decline because of increased domestic utilization.
Most exports are f'OT cash or short-term credit., though grants and conces­
sional sales of wheat have been made to Colombo Plan countries, and grants
of' wheat and nonfat dry milk to United Nations relief agencies. Canada has
Bupported the prinCiple of a "world food bank. II
Imports of rice, :fruit, and vegetables are likely to increase with population growth, but increased production may reduce oilseed imports. The average da.11y caloric intake of JOOre than 3,000 per capita is
supplied largely from the consumption of' domesticaJ~y produced meat and
poultry products, dairy products, 'Wheat, and sugar.
With a high perc:entage of' the diet supplied from animal products, as in
the United States, there is no protein defic)~t f'or the nation as a whole.
There is a declining trend which is expected to continue in per-capita
consumption of' cereals and potatoes. Consumption of' meats, fru.i t, and
vegetables is expected to rise substantial.ly, While the level :for butter is
expected to decline, and that f'or other dairy products as a whole to remain
about constant or to rise slightly.
Utlited states
A highly advanced agriculture a'ld a large area with wide diversity of
Boil and climate, make' this country sel:f-suf'ficient in lOOst f'oods, provide'
large quantities f'or export, and produce substantial surpluses o:f grains
=23
!
and cotton. The nation IS high agricultural potential indicates this situa­
tion is likely to continue over "Gh.e next decade though some reduction in
su.rpJ.uses seems. likely.
The United states imports all cof:f'ee, cocoa beans, bananas, and tea
consumed. It also no~ imports sugar, meats, iruits and nuts, oilseetls,
and tobacco to supplement domestic production, but except for sugar, these
imports amount to only a small part of U. S. consumption.
A large share of the U. S. production of wheat, rice, cotton, tobacco,
soybeans, barley, lard, and tallow moves into foreign outlets, along with
smaller quantities of many other items. About three-fifths of the exports
in 1960-61 moved under some form of governmental asSistance, a large part of
it to less-developed countries.
D:>mestic consumption of food has increased during the postwar period
about in proportion to population, with only a small gain in per capita
consumption. Further increases in consumer purchasing power are likely to
contribute to only a. relatively slow rise in cons1.IlllJ)tion per person. Over
the past decade, per-capita consumption of beef, poultry, and pl"Ocessed
fruits and vegetables has increased wbile consumption of fresh :f'ruits and
vegetables, butter, potatoes, and cereals has declined. Per-capita use of
fats and oils has remained virtuaLly stable. These trends are expected to
continue well into the next decade. Pounds of food consumed per person will
probably change little as the shift to high protein and convenience-type
foods 1s largely offset by declines in consumption of cereals 1 potatoes, and
f'resh f'.ru1 ts and vegetables. In recent years, about 85 percent of the U. s.
food supply has been consumed domestically with the remaining 15 percent
available for export.
M:>st of currentU. S. output available :for export consists of wheat,
cotton, and feedgra1ns. stocks of grains are expected to be gradually re­
duced over the next few yea..."'"B as a result of a stabilization :program f'o:i.•
corn and sorghum grain which 'went into effect in 1961, and programs for
wheat 8l'ld barley which will begin in 1962. However, the U. S. is expected
to continue to produce exportable supplies of a wide range of food conm:>d­
itles over the next decade.
Latin America
Latin America r s population is growing more than 2. 5 percent a year,
faster tban in a:rry other major area of the world. Although farm production
has risen at an even faster rate during the last decade, food cons1.IlllJ)t1on
was below the nutritional standard in 1958. Agricultural resources of the
area are large, and the increase in farm output is likely to continue to
exceed population growth, but consumption is ~~cted to remain below the
nutritional standard in 1966.
The region, which includes MexiCO, Central America, the Caribbean, and
South America, has about one-sixth of the world's land surface. Feudal
systems of production still prevail in many parts. In some areas, land is
29
­
held in large blocks by absentee owners and operated by hired managers. In
other places, fertile valley land is held in large haciendas devoted pri­
marily to livestock while smalJ. farmers IrIIlSt Bubsist on marginal slopes. On.
the other hand, land in some areas is divided into holdings much too smaJ.l to
support a family. Tax systems often encourage speculation in land and bear
heavily on domestic and export trade. Inadequate tr.'8llsportation hinders
marketing and slows development of new lands.
M:>st of the more productive land and much of the labor force in tro­
pical and subtropical zones are in such specialized export products as
SU&'lX, cotton, coffee, bananas, and other fruits.
'I'he same is true of grain
and livestock in such temperate areas as Argentina and northwest Mexico.
l-fuch of Latin America's management and technical skills, fertilizers, re­
search facilities, and irrigation capacity is devoted to these areas. The
basic food crops (com, pulses, potatoes, plantains) are often produced on
marginal land by unskilled labor.
Agricultural technology is at a low level in JOOst of the region, though
si@lificant gains have been made in the last several years. Subsistence
farms, depending on oxen or hand power, are common throughout the area. On
farms engaged in commercial food production, however, horse-and tractor-drawn.
equipnent is widely used.
U~a of fertilizer, other agricult'..tral. chemicals, improved seed and
breeding stock, machinery, and disease control, is increasing but remains
far below the levels of more~d6'Veloped areas. In 1958-59, Latin America
used 6 times as much nitrogenous fertilizer as 10 years earlier; consumption
of phosphoric acid and potash also was up sharply. Three-f'ourths of the
nitrogen, half of' the P205, and less than a fifth of' the potaSh were produced
within the region. Numbers of' tractors also are riSing rapidly. But, in
generru., capital is scarce and labor inputs high.
About 46 percent of' the Latin American labor force is used in agri­
culture, ranging f'rom 25 percent in Argentina and Uruguay to more than 60
percent in Haiti, Bolivia, and tropicaJ. Central America. An estimated 40
percent of' the population is illiterate; rural. people ,mo bave schooling
seldom get more than a primary education. But in Argentina and Mexico,
increased education of rural people has been an important factor in the
advancement of agriculture.
MUch of the expanSion in agricultural production has been fUrthered by
an increase in public facilities and service. These include improvements
in power, irrigation, land reclamation, and transportationj government pro­
grams to stabilize supplies and prices; expanded governmental research and
extensionj and credit prvgrams. Foreign aid has contributed to these
developments.
Economic incentives to increase output are relatively low in latin
America because of low purchasing power, widespread subsistence agriculture,
and declining '9l"ices for farm products the last several. years. Average
income per :person for the region has been estimated at $254, ranging from
30 about $65 in Haiti to approxima.tely ~OO in Venezuela. Ranges within coun­
tries are even greater. Probably about half' of the population consumes
mostly what they themselves produce, thus contributing little to the area's
commerce.
Prices f'or agricultural products have trended d.own since 1950, and the
rate of economic growth has slowed considerably. Inflation in the nonfarm
economy has resulted from deficit spending and an unfavorable balance of
foreign trade. A number of' countries have instituted exchange and monetary
ref'orms and imposed austerity measures.
Food balances prepared in 1958 f'or the 20 Latin American Republics 'With
97.5 percent of' total population f'or the region show that food availabilities
per capita averaged 2 640 calories per day, higher than any other under­
developed area,. and 140 calories above the nutritional level established for
Latin America. Regional weighted averages show that animal protein exceeded
the standard by 17 grams per day, total animal. and pulse protein by 16 grams,
and f'at by 18 grams.
These weighted ave~s are misleading in that they reflect national
average calorie and p:n)tein availabilities well above standard f'or Argentina,
Brazil, Chile, Cuba, M~xico, and Uruguay -- countries with 68 percent of the
regiori's population. In 1958, deficits in other, below-standard countries
were equivalent to 2.5 million metric tons of wheat, 10,000 tons of nonfat
dry milk, and 100,000 tons of'vegetable oil.
Average, availability of calories was below reference standards in 13 of'
the 20 Republics in 1958. Lower calorie levels were typical of countries,
particularly in tropical and mountainous regions, having large segments of
populations living in rural areaB. For the region, these J.eve1s ranged from
less than 1,900 calories in Bolivia and Haiti to more than 3,300 in Argentina.
Haiti, with a per- capita average of 4 grams, was the onJ.y country below
the prescribed standard for animal protein. Aside from Honduras and Guate­
mala, with per-capita averages of' 9 grams, meat products ltS'\w.].ly provide
milch of the reqllirements for both an1.mal and pulse protein. Pulses, parti­
cularly bea.ns, are important in the diet of several cou.ntries, including
Brazil, D:>minican Republic, El Salvador, Haiti, and Mexico.
Corn is usually supplemented by potatoes, cassava, bananas, sugar, and
other low-protein foods in the diet of rural. people in tropical and lOOun­
taino1J.s areas of Latin America. Availability of "other ll protein is below
30 grams in a number of countries, including Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica,
D.:>minican RepubliC, Ecuador, El Salvador, Haiti, Nicaragua, Paraguay, and
Venezuela, and exceeds ~.Q grams onJ.y in Honduras, Mexico, and Uruguay.
Per-capita consumption of animal and vegetable fats is reJ.atively high
in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Cuba, MeXico, and Uruguay, while supple­
mentary fat is provided in sufficient quantity by cereal. and animal products
in some other countries. Fat is def'icient in only 8 of' the 20 Republics,
with serious shortages :In Bolivia, Ecuador, and Haiti.
31
The 1958 food balances reflect substantial imports of food i terns for
bo~h nondeficit and deficit countries. Brazil,' the largest wheat importer
with approximately 1. 6 million metric tons, was followed by Peru, Venezuela,
Cuba, Chile, and Colombia with quantities ranging f'rom 50,000 to 300,000 tons.
Varying amollllts of wheat as well as rice, coarse ~ins, and fats and oils
were imported by deficit coul"ltries. Argentina and Uruguay exported wheat,
COB.!'Se greina, meat, and other animal products outside the area, principa.lly
to Europe. More productive lands in DmlY deficit ~as provide export pro­
duction of coffee, sugar, cacao, and bananas. Part of the foreign exchange
so earned is used to import food commodities. These foodStuffs go ma.1nl.y to
urban populations and seldom reach diet-deficient rural. people. Latin
America was a net importer of' 1 million tons of wheat in 1958. Rice, dry
beans and peas, and dairy f'oods were also on a net im;port basis. Net export
of' coarse grains was about 1. 5 million tons. Exports of' meat exceeded 1m:P<;>rts.
Latin America bas suf'f'icient land and labor resources to provide ade­
quate diets f'or the 238 million people expected in 1966--45 million lJX)re than
in 1958. JOOst larger and many sma.l1.er countries have developnent programs
aiming at greater productivity through agrarian ref'om. Fam production is
likely to increase enough in the next 5 years to provide some increase in
consumption per person, but diets f'or the area as a whole are unlikely to
reach the nutritional standard by 2966.
Latin America: Wheat production and requirements to meet nutritional standards, 1958, and proiected to 1962 and 1966 MIL.
~~~R~C
12
I
LATIN AMERICA
*
ARGENTINA, MEXICO, AND URUGUAY 0 (Excluding Argentina, Mexico, and UruglJay)
Unfilled deficit
~ Export availabilities
Net imports - - - - - - - - t - - ~ Consumption
_ _ _ _ _---{
Production
10 1 - - - - - - - ­
8
6
4
2
0...1.-­ 1958
1962
1966
1958
1962
1966 o PRODUCTION
*CONSUMPTION EQUALS
PRODUCTION AND NET IMPORTS.
EQUALS
CONSUMPTION AND EXPORT AVAILABILITY.
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
NEG. ERS 352- 61 (B)
Figure 6
32
ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE
6 .--Wheat:
Table
Requirements, production, and import need or export availability, Hestern Hemisphere, 1958 and projected to 1962 and 1966 1958
Country
Latin America
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
w
w
:
:
Requirements
:
: Pro-
Esti- :To meet : duc- For pro- :To meet :
jected : nutri- :
mated : nutri- : tion
: tional :
coneon- : tiona1 :
sumotion :standard:
sumption:standard;
Requirements
-- - - - - - - - - - -
6,500
16
500
1,185
160
- 2,745
185
2,150
115
220
- 2,745
408
2,150
115
507
4,100
247
3,200
1,400
490
4,100
459
3,200
1,400
710
7,000
17
500
1,300
170
- 2,900
230
2,700
100
320
- 2,900
442
2,700
100
540
52
230
105
119
50
52
280
343
404
228
0
0
0
59
0
52
230
105
60
50
52
280
343
345
228
59
250
140
140
65
59
308
366
445
255
0
0
0
77
0
59
250
140
63
65
59
308
366
36[,
255
1
1,376
0
98
65
35
1,400
40
249
313
86
1,400
120
23
0
0
1,400
0
75
65
35
0
40
226
313
86
0
120
116
110
40
1,581
60
282
343
95
1,581
137
26
0
0
1,700
0
90
110
40
- 119
60
256
343
95
- 119
137
46
115
1,036
467
512
0
5
143
593
7
36
95
560
502
387
36
108
1,277
502
580
0
15
170
450
7
36
80
390
52
380
36
93
1,107
52
573
48
99
645
533
477
48
99
1,391
533
654
0
20
175
533
7
48
79
470
0
470
48
79
1,215
0
647
323
323
0
344
3/.4
0
344
344
367
367
0
367
367
11,028
13,543
10,150
12,404
15,118
11),485
1,919
4,633
14,167
16,832
11,525
2,641
5,307
4,631
4,631
10,116
4,600
4,600
13,300
- 8,700
- 8,700
4,850
4,850
13,750
- 8,900
- 8,900
16,659
16,659
39,781
15,921
15,921
29,937
-14,016
-14,016
17,119
17,119
29,937
-12,818
-12,818
41
259
32
77
34
46
259
414
360
200
0
0
Guatemala
Haiti
lbnduras
M:!xico
Nicaragua
77
56
22
1,170
23
222
295
81
1,170
118
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
28
76
466
467
295
Other
United States
-- - - - - - -- -- - -- - -- - - - ---
3,755
424
2,650
1,300
667
5,810
Canada
.
3,755
201
2,650
1,300
380
3,652
373
2,306
1,241
307
Total
.
, - - - - - - - - - - - - 1,000 metric tons - - -
3,652
13[.
2,306
1,241
249
Costa Rica
Cuba
Dominican Rep.
Ecuador
E1 Salvador
.
1966
1962
Import need or
.
Import need or
Requirements ; Pro- ;eXEort availability ~-l
Pro- ;exnort availabilitv (-)
For pro-:To meet: due- : For pro- : To meet
due- : For pro- ; To meet
: nutri­
jeeted : nutri- : tion : jeeted
: nutrition : jected
;
:
: tiona1
eon:
eon- : tional :
eontional
: sumotion ; standard
sumption:standard:
: sumotion : standard
22
781
1,214
140
0
40
0
18
0
------------.------~
7 .--Dry beans and peas:
Table
Requirements, production, and import need or export availability, "'estern i£misphere, 1958 and projected to 1962 and 1966 1958
1962
Requirements
Country
-- - - - - - - - - - -
Latin America
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
42
21
1,547
87
82
42
21
1,547
87
82
49
20
1,498
122
81
15
90
30
50
50
15
90
30
50
50
Guatemala
Haiti
Honduras
M!xico
Nicaragua
49
75
23
593
12
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
Costa Rica
Cuba
Dominican Rep.
Ecuador
E1 Salvador
w
.;:-
:
: ProEsti- :To meet : ducmated : nutri- : tion
con- : tiona1 :
sumotion:standard:
Other
Total
Canada
United States
__ t
1966
Import need or
Import need or
Requirements ~ Pro- :~xport availability (-)
Requirements ~ Pro- ~export availability (-)
For pro- :To mee·t : duc- : For pro- : To meet
For pro-:To meet: duc- : For pro- : To meet
: nutrijected : nutri- : tion :
jected
nutri­
jected : nutri- : tion : jected
:
:
con- : tiona1 :
:
con: tiona1
contiona1
con- : tiona1 :
:
sUffiPtion:standard:
: sumption
~umDtion:standard:
: sumotion : standard
: standard
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 1,000 metric tons - -
1,730
70
87
45
22
1,730
70
87
65
15
1,730
106
86
- 20
7
0
- 36
1
- 20
7
0
- 36
1
49
24
1,949
75
98
49
24
1,949
75
98
15
17
30
50
43
18
97
38
56
57
18
97
38
56
57
18
36
38
56
40
0
61
0
0
17
0
61
0
0
17
20
107
44
61
64
49
75
23
593
12
50
75
31
452
12
55
80
26
672
18
55
80
26
672
18
41
77
37
650
20
14
3
14
3
- 11
22
- 11
11
20
105
3
98
11
20
105
3
98
8
20
106
3
70
12
21
117
3
111
12
21
117
3
III
6
20
1.17
3
90
6
1
0
0
21
6
1
0
0
24
127
21
46
46
19
48
48
20
28
3,049
3,049
2,771
3,383
3,383
3,271
62
62
70
64
64
65
776
776
1,084
821
821
Q2S
--_.
__ . _ ­
45
- - -- - - - - - - - -- --- - --- - ---
L2
- 21
1,930
125
98
- 21
7
19
- 50
0
20
107
44
61
64
20
48
44
61
40
0
59
0
0
24
0
59
0
0
24
62
87
29
750
20
62
87
29
750
20
48
80
45
750
23
14
14
13
7
20
127
3
110
0
0
126
13
24
127
3
126
16
16
28
52
52
21
31
31
112
112
3,784
3,784
3,687
97
97
- 1
- 1
70
70
70
t)
0
lQ/,
- lOt,
835
835
1,057
- 222
- 222
-
-
70
2
-
22
2
3
17
7
19
- 50
0
7
7
- 16
0
3
- 16
0
- 3
6
4
0
6
4
0
-
Table
8
·Nonfat dry milk:
r----'
Country
Latin America
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
W
I
1958
Requirements:
:
Esti- :To meet :Prom,tecl : nutri :ducCon~ : tiona1 :tion
'sumotion:standard:
- -
'J!
Requirements, production, and import need or export availability
and projected to 1962 and 1966 - -
- - - - -
Western Hemisphere, 1958 1962
RcJiuirements:
:
For pro-:To meet :Projected: nutri· :duccon-: tiona1 :tion
s~tion:~~~rd:
____________1_9_6_6____________________
:
Import need or
: export:.. :lV.,ilability (-)
: For pro- : To meet
: jected : nutri:
con: tiona1
: su~ption : st~ndard
Requirements
:
Import need or
:export availability (_)
For pro-:To meet Pro : For pro- : To meet
jected : nutri- :duc-: jected : nutricon-: tional :tion:
con: tiona1
sumotion:standard:
: sumption : standard
. - . - - - - - - - - - - I! 000 metric tons - - - - - - - - - - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
0
1
7
14
9
0
1
7
14
9
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
11
12
10
0
1
11
12
10
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
10
11
9
0
1
10
11
9
0
1
17
14
11
0
1
17
14
11
0
0
2
1
1
0
1
15
13
10
0
1
15
13
10
1
2
0
1
1
1
2
0
1
1
1
2
0
0
0
2
2
0
1
3
2
2
0
1
3
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
0
0
0
1
3
2
2
0
1
7
2
2
0
1
7
4
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
7
2
0
0
1
7
Guatemala
Haiti
Hondur as
Mexico
Nicaragua
1
1
0
10
1
11
0
10
J)
1/
0
0
0
2
0
1
11
2
15
1
1
11
2
15
1
0
0
0
3
0
1
11
2
12
1
1
11
2
12
1
1
12
3
18
1
1
12
3
18
1
0
0
0
4
0
1
12
3
14
1
1
12
3
14
1
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
1
0
2
0
0
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
4
0
2
1
1
4
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
4
0
2
1
1
4
0
2
1
2
5
0
2
1
2
5
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
5
0
2
1
2
5
0
2
Other
7
7
0
8
8
0
8
8
10
10
0
10
10
58
68
6
88
88
10
18
18
110
110
14
96
96
51
51
86
56
56
100
-44
-44
65
65
120
-55
-55
433
433
776
5"/8
578
953
-375
·375
669
669
1,043
-374
-374
Costa Rica
Cuba
Dominican Rep.
Ecuador
E1 Sah'ador
Total
Canada
: : : States
1/
I
Imported nonfat dry milk not separately shown in trade statistics.
Table 9 .--Vegetab1e oil:
Requirements, production, and import need or export availability, Western Hemisphere, 1958 and projected to 1962 and 1966 1958
Requirements
Country
- - - -- - - -- -
:
:
1966
:
Import need or
:export availability (-)
For pro-:To meet Pro- : For pro- : To meet
j.:'lcted : nutri :duc- : jected : nutri­
con- : tiona1 :tion :
con: tional
sumotion:standard:
: Bumotion : standard
Requirements
-- - -- - - -- -- ---- - - -- --- -- - -
211
4
168
43
64
211
20
168
43
64
311
1
173
30
57
228
9
220
39
71
228
21
220
39
71
270
1
220
32
36
- 42
8
0
7
35
- 42
20
0
7
35
246
10
290
44
79
246
23
290
44
79
285
1
290
40
54
- 39
9
0
4
25
- 39
22
0
4
25
5
15
23
14
4
5
15
23
27
8
4
1
25
7
6
6
13
25
23
8
6
16
25
31
8
4
1
21
10
11
2
12
4
13
3
2
15
21
3
7
18
27
30
9
7
18
27
34
9
4
1
32
14
13
3
17
5
16
4
3
17
5
20
4
Guatemala
Haiti
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
4
2
2
242
3
9
26
8
242
5
4
10
1
2
252
3
16
9
300
5
10
28
9
300
5
4
1
2
300
4
6
27
7
0
1
12
23
10
350
6
12
30
10
350
6
4
1
2
350
6
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
1
4
28
22
38
1
4
54
22
38
0
4
25
31
10
1
4
44
43
1
4
58
21
43
4
3
28
23
25
3
1
30
2
18
1
5
49
23
49
1
5
63
23
49
7
3
30
25
35
Other
72
72
55
78
78
62
16
16
83
83
969
1,065
1,002
1,173
1,222
1,062
111
160
1,371
150
150
93
165
165
100
65
65
2,195
2,195
2,350
2,350
4,390 - 2,040
- 2,040
Costa Rica
Cuba
Dominican Rep.
Ecuador
E1 Salvador
~
1962
:
Import need or
:export availabilitv (­
For pro-:To meet :Pro- : For pro- : To meet
jected : nutri- :duc- : jected : nutricon- : tiona1 :tion :
:
contiona1
sumotion:standard:
: sumption : standard
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 1,000 metric tons - Requirements
Esti- :To meet :Promated : nutri- :duccon- : tiona1 :tion
sumotion:standard:
Latin America
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
:
Total
~
United States
3,635 21
-
4
-
6
15
7
0
1
-
3
1
16
2
18
-
-
-
8
22
8
0
0
-
8
29
8
0
0
-
6
2
19
2
14
- 142
71
12
12
1,409
1,268
103
141
182
182
120
62
2,535
2,535
5,135
- 2,600
-
6
2
33
62 - 2,600
Increases in f'arm output will continue to be hindered by lack of' capital,
credit, extension facilities, a. :faulty agrarian structure, inadequate mar­
keting systems, and the one-co:tmOOdity economies in ma.ny countries which make
them largely dependent on exports. Vast improvement in education and techni­
cal services will be required bef'ore modern agriculturaJ. methods become
general.l.3 adopted in the area.
The follOwing tabulation shows 1958 consumption rates per perll-on f'or
wheat, dry beans and peas, ncni'at dry milk, vegetable Oil, and coarse grains
with projections to 1962 and. 1966. Projections include f'ood and nonf'ood
uses :£'.rom both domestic production and imports. They allow f'or some ex­
pansion in domestic output; some improvement in marketing, transportation,
and distribution; and economic growth which will raise purchasing power of'
l.ower-income groups:
Conmodity
1958
Wheat
Dry' beans and peas
Nonf'at dry milk
Vegetable oil
Coarse grains
57·1
15.8
~
~
- Kilograms -
.30
5·0
121.5
57.8
15.8
.41
5·5
118·7
59.4
15·9 .46 5.8 118.4 The dif'ference between the nutritional standard and the projected total
consumption in 1962 and 1966 is equivalent to the following: For 1962,
2,714,000 tons of wheat and 49~OOO tons of'vegetable 011; and f'or 1966,
2,665,000 tons of' wheat and 38,000 tons of'vegetable oil.
The nutritional gap would be even greater if nutritional levels of'
below-average areas w:I.thin the countries were raised to the standard, and
the higher consuming areas remained the seme. This is a problem, to some
degree, in isolated rural areas throughout Central. America and tropical South
.America. Typical areas include northeast Brazi1 and the densely puptiated
highland areas of' Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela. These are extremely isolated
areas, and cost of' imported f'oods is prohibitive due to inadequate trans­
portation, storage, and distribution f'acilities.
The rate of' economic growth in the future will be an 1mportant determi­
nant of the pu-cbas:tng.power of the population and the speed with which
Latin America closes its nutritional gap. During llX)st of the postwar period,
the gross national product rose 2 percent per person per year, but the rate
f'ell about half in the closing years of the 1950 's. The bulk of' the invest­
ment during this period came f'.rom domestic sources, though that percentage
ia now declining. While the united States was the largest supplier o~
f'oreign investment, large sums also came from other foreign governments and
international agencies. OVer the last 15 years, $2. 5 million of' fixed
capital were required f'or each $1 million increase in national product in
Latin America.
Foreign capital must play an ever greater part in the future if the
trend in gross national product in Latin America is to continue upward at
-
37
the rate of the last decade. CoDlDitments under the Latin-American Alliance
for Progress Program, and loans and other assistance now offered through the
Inter-American DevelollJ1eJ1t Bank and other institutions, promise to add sub­
stantial sums for investment in Latin America.
Establishment of :free trade areas and economic integration programs in
South and Central America during the past 2 years could lead to industrial
specialization and greater exchange of goods amng Latin American countries.
This ~ help to accelerate economic growth and provide higher purchasing
power for the people.
AFRICA AND WEST ASIA
Africa
Nearly all of the quarter billion people living in Africa have enough
food, though the quality of the diet general.ly is not up to good nutritional
levels and in some areas is far below. In the :past, food production has in­
creased with population since D¥)st people live on the land and produce D¥)st
of their food or gather it f'rom the 1tUds. In addition, production for ex­
port is expandj.ng rapic1ly': Africa is a leading supplier of cocoa, oil palm
products, peanuts, coffee, and cotton.
Fuller utilization of the continent's agricultural resources would have
resulted in production sufficient to provide a much better diet in the past
and would more than meet the food needs of the 39 million population increase
projected from 1958 to 1966. Some improvement in diet is likely, but the
obstacles that have hindered food outpu.t in the past are likely to :prevent
the continent's potential from being :f'u11y realized over at. least the next
5 years.
The JOOre important of these obstacles are the low educational level of'
rural. people, low levels of investment and technology in agriCulture, sub­
sistence farming, and low purchasing power per person. Only 15 to 20 percent
of Af'ricans are 1iterata, JOOst of them in urban centers. This has made the
problem of agricultural extension extremely difficult, and little imdern
technology is being employed in the basic agriculture of Africa. On the
other hand, the best of technology is bett\g used by growers of cODlllercial
export cro:pe who have utilized the resour~'es of the several fine agricu1.turaJ.
experiment stations on the continent.
The African farmer has little capital investment. Irrigation works are
important in North Africa and represent large capital inputs. Except in
some areas farmed by Europeans, individual holdings tend to be rather small
and o:rteli i'ragmented. Land is tribaJ.ly owned in large areas.
VirtuaJ.ly no comnercial fertilizer is used on subsistence crops in
Africa. The continent produces only a little aver 1 percent of the world's
outpu.t, on a nutrient basis, and uses only about 3 percent. CODlnercial.
crops receive JOOs·t of the fertilizer.
- 38 ­
Economic incentives to increase production of food crops or to shift production SlOOng enterprises are generally' lacking. M>st African fanners consume much of what they produce. Even today, many bushmen buy nothing and sell nothing. Under these conditiona, production changes little in response to price changes. Low purchasing power also limits the incentive to produce. Average per capita income is estimated at about $100 per year. The buJ.k of this is con:f'itt.ed to urban centers, and part of it goes for imported food­ stuffs.
The situation is different fOlr producers of export cOIllDOdities. Guaran­ teed prices and other incentives have been used to increase production. The longterm output of these products aJ.so tends to be affected by changes in demand and prices. The study indicates that Africa is a food-deficit continent with criti­
cal nutritional shortages in some areas. Food consumption meets nutritional
standards in only two countries--the Republic of South Africa and the Feder­
ation of RhodeSia and Nyasaland.
Diets in Central and West Af'rica where starch root crops are important have sufficient calories. Calorie deficiencies show up principaJ.ly in North Africa. Tunisia bas the largest per-capita deficit. AJ.though Egypt bas a smaller per-capita deficiency, its total need for importing energy-giving grains (as measured by the difference between domestic production and con­ sumption) is the greatest of any country in Africa. The study indicates that an:l:mal protein is generally adequate in the
diets in both North and South African countries, though shortages show up in
areas where livestock raiSing is limited. Pulse protein deficits, like those
in animal. protein, occur in parts of Africa, prinCipally in the heavy rain­
fall portions of West Africa. Nearby, pulses, especially peanuts, are pro­
duced in surplus quantities. H.a.l 'f of the countries indicating fat shortages
are in North Africa; the others are scattered geographically.
Africa exports about three times as much agricultural products J on a
value basis, as it imports. Exports avera.ged about $3.4 billion annually
during 1955-58. Such nonfood commodities as cotton, tea, tobacco, and, hard
fibers are the leading export items. Nearly all imports are for :rood.
Grains and grain products are the 1ead-tng impo-rts, followed by sugar and
dairy products. In 1958, imports supplied abo~t 8 percent of the calories
consumed in Africa.
Africa has great potential for expanding agricultural production, es­
pecially south of the Sahara where there are vast areas of unuti11zed an<I
under-Iltilized land, including large areas of grazing land. Only a few
techno1oglca...1. brea...1ttbroughs will be required to enable livestock production
to expand. greatly: Tsetse fly control is one; satisfactory transportatlon
and marketing facilities are others. Soil, topograp~V, and rainfall are
ideal over large areas to expand production of tropical crops above already
high levels. This also is an area of unsurpassed potential for hydroelectriC
developnent.
39
I
.
I
I
""
.'-
Egypt is the outstand:!ng exception to the generally favorable longrange
agricultura1. outlook because of limited crop acreage and a rapidly ris:i.ng
population. This is true, even when the potential benefits of the High
Aswan DBm are considered. AgriculturaJ. expansion in Egypt depends directly
upon irrigation; few other places in the world are as depend.en.t upon irri­
gation water.
The chief block to technological improvement in African agricu.lt1.l..re is
illiteracy and lack of conmrunication. As these improve, so will agr1c::ultural
productiv1ty. This is reco~1zed by the newly independent countries of
A:rrica in the increased emphasis they are placing on educat:l.on. ,nth so
large an agricul.tural potential,. it is reasonable to expect that subsistence
agricultural. outP.l't will IOOVe up with the population. Somewhat greater in­
creases are indicated for several commodities.
011" the maljor food cOJlllOOdities .. only wheat production is lagging behind
population grovth. Wheat is the biggest deficit item at present, and con­
sumption 1s increasing throughout the continent. 'W'b::!at consumption in 1958
';(8B about 2 million tons over African production.
For 1966:1 import needs
are projected at 3.8 million tons, reflecting some increase in per capi.ta
consumption, thougll not nearl.y enough to cover the nutritional gap. This
situation indicates imports will continue to climb.
Africa and West Asia: Production and consumption of wheat
and coarse grains, 1958, and proiected 1962 and 1966
WHEAT
COARSE GRAINS
MIL. METRIC TONS
AFRICA
30
20
'10
Consumption
to meet--------J nutritional tandard_Proiected consumption I------
1-4­
o
MIL. METRIC TONS
WEST ASIA 20 1 - - - - - - - - - - 1
10
o
1958 1962 1966
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
1958 1962 1966
NEG. ERS 353-61 (8)
Figure 7
-
40
­
ECONOMIC .'<[SEARCH SERVICE
('
.. '......'
,
Production o-r coarse gra.1.ns--basic -roods in :many parts o-r Africa--is
expected to rise slightly -raster than population; and consumption is expected
to keep pace with population. This means that Africa ~ become a larger llet
exporter; exports may reach 3.5 million tons in 1966. In 1958, production
exceeded requirements by 2.2 millio~ tons. Export availabilities of vege­
table oU will also increase) rising to 1. 2 million tons in 1966 compared
with 800,000 tons in 195ft
Consumption of food will increase over the next 5 years as urbanization
increases and the economy improves. Per capita consumption of s€ l ected
commodities in 1958 and as projected for 1962 and 1966 is shown below:
£onmodity
- - - Kilograms
Wheat
nry beans and peas
Nonfat dry' milk
Ve~tab1e 011
33.0
35.6
36.6
20.0
.02
20.5
20.4
7·1
7.7
.19
·31
7·9
Even though food consumption is increasing, the additional qt~tities needed
to raise expected consumption to l~els that would meet nutritional stand­
ards are so great it would be unreasonable to expect this gap to be filled by
1966. The gap for wheat has been placed at 2.4 millil1n tons. For animal.
protein, the' der-lcit is equivalent to about 65,000 tons of nonfat dry milk.
Even though pulse protein and fat shortages prevailed in some Af'rican
countries in 1958 and are projected into 1962 and 1966, the continent as a
'Whole is a net exporter of beans and peas and vegetab1e oU.
There are several reasons why the nutritionaJ. gap is unlikely to be
closed by 1966. First is the lack of -roreign exchange 'with which to buy the
needed foods. Second is the lack of commercial consumer demand, even if
means could be devised to import the needed food. Problems of port-unloading
facilities and inland transportation and distribution also are serious.
Substantial shipments of agricultural cOIllOOdities to African countries
under concessional terms, even grants, generaJ.ly would be most acceptable to
Governments of diet-deficit countries, particularly if the foo~ are to be
used as ~t of wages in kind in works programs. Governments generally
are reluctant to establish within the countries free food distribution pro­
grams, except to meet natural catastrophes.
West Asia
Rainfall is limited over much of West Asia with grain production and
livestock raising on semiarid land the most important far.. enterprises.
OVer half the 80 million people in West Asia are in Turkey and Iran. Since
World War II, population has increased slightly over 2 Percent per year.
The area produces JOOst of the food it COttBumeB and exports sizable
quan,tities of 1':ru1ts and nuts, cotton, and tobacco. Dlring 1955-58,
-
41
­
Table 10.-4Jheat: Requirements, production, an::! import need or export availability, Africa an::! West ASia, 1958, an::!. 1966
.
-y------ to 1962
.
1958
1962
1966
•
~Orti need or
•
:
:uq>o~ neea or
:
Requirements
Requirements :
;export,E.:'ilability (-) Requirements;
: export availability (- )
Esti- .To meet .Pro- For pro-:To meet ;Pro- : For pro- : To meet
For pro-:To meet :Pro- : For pro- : To meet
Country
mated. : nutri- :duc- jected : nutri- :duc- : jected
jected : nntri- :duc- : jected
nutr1­
: mItricon- , tiona1 :tion
con- : tional ,tion : contiona1
con- : tiona1 :tion : contiona1
sumption:stan::!ard :
' sumption:stan::!ard:
: sumption ; stan.lard sumption:staooard :
: sumption ; stan::!ard
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1,000 metric tons - - - - - - Africa~
- -- - --------:uge
1,610
1,657 1,627 1,894
1,894 1,550
2,074
2,074 1,700
344
344
374
374
Angola
145
16
l.!4
39
15325
137
158
40
14
54
14
J..4h.
Belgian Congo an::!
Ruama-U:ru.nii
1,022
8
68
58
8
60
1,09.5
1~087
92
1,173
1,166
85
7
Cameroun
22
0
90
a
25
102
)0
97
25
0
102
97
30
Egypt
2,577
2,731 1,4llJ 3,018
3,018 1,432
1,586
1,586
1,863
3.338
1,863
3.,338 1,h75
Ethiopia
120
326
120
-155
120
155
319
199
35
332
uS
40
217
French Eq. Africa
18
116
0
26
122
0
26
122
128
0
128
32
32
French vast Africa g
116
116
0
0
140
140
140
140
150
0
150
150
150
Ghana
63
203
0
100
0
100
214
li2
0
214
227
112
227
Guinea
120
0
0
4
125
12
0
9
12
9
125
133
133
Ke~
123
231
105
100
135
244
100
258
35
158
144
145
h5
Liberia
0
48
0
50
0
3
5
50
51
5
7
51
7
Libya
107
19
105
80
91
liS
25
90
125
125
29
96
96
Morocco
1,097
1,097 1,141 1,193
1,193 1,260
-67
1,308
1,308 1,400
-67
-92
-92
Nieeria & British
Came:roons
0
70
57
70
0
57
70
0
70
75
75
75
75
Rhodesia and Nyasaland, Fed. of
2
120
120
99
2
118
li8
99
140 140
137
3
137
Sudan
81
21
109
200
175
181
19
90
201
226
20
181
206
Tangar¢ka
126
8
h2
134
12
122
35
30
142
128
59
14
h5
Togo
0
6
51
0
6
3
56
0
56
59
9
9
59
Tunisia
619
609
598
720
22
7h2
22
816
816
742
780
36
36
Union of So. Africa
896
896
760
989
989
720
269
1,082
1,082
269
750
332
332
other
181
170
16
405
lS
448
165
196
432
476
17
179
459
Total
7,896 10,437 5,854 9,171 1l,536 5,998
10,212 12,573 6,424
3,173
5,538
3,788
6,149
-.-
.
&:"-
.
,
.
-- - - -
"'"
I\)
West Asia
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Lebanon
Syria
Turkey
other
Total
11
2,740
1,060
330
222
256
616
6,395
h25
12,0h4
3,532
1,221
330
296
256
739
6,395
800
13,569
2,740 3,175
1,118 1,222
366
63
220
280
277
35
768
607
6,500 7,130
125
h75
1l,408 13,693
3,891
1,372
366
347
277
768
7,130
825
14,976
Names and borders as they generally existed in 1958.
g/
2,975
1,195
50
175
40
835
7,055
150
12,h75
200
27
316
105
237
-67
75
325
1,218
Exclud~ng
Guinea.
916
177
316
172
237
-67
75
675
2,501
3,552
1,392
396
310
301
853
7,956
525
15,285
4,302
1,534
396
390
301
853
7,956
850
16,51:12
-.----
-
3.302
1,339
53
185
50
935
7,856
175
13,895
---
--
250
53
343
125
253-82
100
350
1,390
--
----
-­
1,000
195
343
205
251
-82
100
675
2,687
--­
Requirements, production, and import need 01' export availability, Africa am West ASia, 1958,
and projected to 1962 am 1966
1962
1958
1966
:
Import need or
Import need or
Requirp.~nts
:
Requirements:
;export availAbility (-) Requirements
:
;export availability (-)
Esti- •To meet • Pro­ For pro-: To meet : Pro- : For pro- : To meet
IFor pro-:To meet :Pro : For proTo meet
mated : nutrl- : duc­
jected • nutrl- .duc-. jected
ntItrijected • nutri- .duc-. jected
nutri­
con- : tional : t10n
con- : tional : tion:
contiona1
con-: tiona1 :t1on :
contional
sumption;standard;
. sumption
standard sumption;Stamard;
; sumption
standard
J'sumption;stan:laro;
- - - - - - - 1,000 metric tons - - - - - - 102
105
89
89
49
97
97
72
25
25
27
30
75
120
120 129
-10
-10
124
12h
130
- 6
- 6
130
130
140
11. --Dry beans am peas:
Table
I
Coun\;:ry
Africa 1/
~rrll
Angola
Belgian Congo am
Ruama-Ururrli
Cameroun
y
Egypt
Ethiopia
French Eq. Africa
French W:Bt AMca
y
3/
Gha:na-Y
Guinea
Ke~
.j::""
<.oJ
Liberia
Libya
Y
y
Tanganyika.
Togo
Union of So. Africa
other
Total
West Asia
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Lebanon
Syria
Turkey
othl3r
Ta1;a1
Y
438
76
327
388
20
438
58
311
430
20
l.!69
986
50
20
75
1,066
72
20
75
21
18
33
986
50
20
75
1,121
65
21
79
5
Morocco
Niger.La am British
Ca.-:l6roons
Rhod.esia am
Nyasalalrl, Fed. of
Sudan
Tunisia
438
58
327
388
20
I
9
33
5
94
1,131
1,241 1,131
100
181
221
8
30
68
405
4,762
100 100
181 190
221 234
8
8
30
30
68
78
430 405
5,042 4,850
I
I
475
- 6
- 6
15
17
-69
- 1
- 1
-4
-4
36
1,121 1,125
55
75
21
21
79
80
22
5
20
7
36
86
-50
17
13
-50
1,310
1,325 1,300
1o
101
206
234
9
32
75
450
5,326
101 100
206 231
234 248
9
9
32
36
75
72
465 435
5,395 5,409
1
-25
170
83
12
47
8
61
534
76
991
170 169
83
83
12
3
47
45
8
3
77
61
534 559
75
76
991 1,0:11-1.
11
9
469
81
10
17
-69
76
361
421
21
7
66
361
344
421
21
490
22
10
o
- 1
6
o
.
;:
503
82
384
461
22
520
72
,360
.541
24
39
1,183 1,185
58
79
22
22
84
85
23
5
21
11
99
39
25
1,391
1,406 1,380
1
-25
112
232
248
9
36
82
490
5,706
112
112
232
262
248
262
9
9
36
41
82
79
500
470
5,781 5,812
20
o
- 1
-14
-14
0
- 4
3
15
-83
0
- 4
3
30
-14
1
1
1,183
68
22
84
15
503
85
399
461
22
11
-17
10
24
-80
- 2
-17
13
39
-80
- 2
- 2
10
- 2
21
- 1
- 1
o
10
o
-60
o
18
10
-60
26
0
-30
0
-30
-14
-14
0
- 5
3
20
-106
0
- 5
3
30
-31
I
154
75
11
42
7
52
L.79
69
889
154
75
11
42
7
72
479
69
909
155
75
6
50
3
79
507
70
945
Names am borderS as they generally existed in 1958.
Y
o
9
2
9
2
5
5
·16
187
92
o
-16
-25
-25
1
1
-23
-23
14
53
8
69
596
87
1,106
Includes pearmts consumed as pu"Ules.
J/
187
92
14
185
92
3
53
53
4
8
69
80
596
626
87
85
1,106 1,128
Ex:c1uding Guinea.
2
2
o
o
11
11
4
4
o
o
-11
-11
-30
-30
2
-22
2
-22
Table 12.--Nonfat dry milk:
Requirements, production, and import need or export availability, Africa and West ASia, 1958 and pp roiected to 1962 and 1966 1958
1962
1966
Import need or
:
:
Import need
Requirements :
Requirements:
:export availability (_)
Requirements :
: export availabil.. llL1:)
Esti- :To meet :Pro- For pro-:To meet :Pro-: For pro- : To meet
For pro-:To meet :Pro-: For pro- : 1
mated : nutri- :duc- jected : nutri- :duc-:
jected
: nutrijected : nutri- :duc-:
jected
: n
con
: tiona1 :tion
con- : tiona1 : tion:
con­
: tiona1
con- : tiona1 : tion:
con:
t
sumption:standard:
sumotion:standard:
: sumotion : standard sumption:standard:
: sumEtion : st
--- 1.000 metric tons
- :
Country
Africa..!:.! Algeria Angola
Belgian Congo and
Ruanda-Urundi
Cameroun
Egypt
Ethiopia
French Eq. Africa
French West Afric~/
Ghana
Guinea
Kenya Liberia
I
Libya
.f:" Morocco
'.f:" Nigeria and British
Cameroons
I
Rhodesia and Nyasaland
Fed. of
Sudan
Tanganyika Togo
Tunisia Union of South Africa
Other Total West Asia
Iran
Iraq Israel Jordan
Lebanon Syria
Turkey Other Total
:
:
-- - --- - - - - - - - - - - 0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
35
0
8
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
10 0
0
5
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
1
4
------- -- ---
3
0
2
0
0
0
3
0
3
0
0
G
0
0
0
2
7
10
0
0
0
4
0
7
10
0
0
0
42
0
15
42
2
2
1
0
4
2
3
1
0
4
2
4
11
87
3
1
0
1
0
2
1
0
4
2
4
12
151
1
1
37
0
5
40
0
1
0
0
3
0
2
10
108
0
0
0
3
1
0
2
3
1
0
4
2
2
3
4
50
3
1
0
0
0
0
3
1
5
0
2
2
0
3
45
0
0
2
1
0
1
0
2
2
2
1
1
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
a
1
2
1
0
1
2
1
0
2
2
a
1
1
1/ 2
1
0
1
10
0
10
1/ Names and borders as they generally existed in 1958.
1/
0
0
7
12
15
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
4
40
4
0
2
1
4
8
0
0
0
0
11
G
5
0
139
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
(I
0
2
1
3
3
0
0
8
0
5
1
4
0
0
0
0
0
10
0
8
0
4
1
6
10
0
0
5
0
4
0
2
1
4
37
0
5
1
4
3
0
---- -
0
7
12
0
0
39
0
9
0
6
1
6
0
0
1
2
1
10 -
1
1
37
0
10
134
11
0
4
2
2
1
0
1
2
1
0
2
1
0
1
0
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
0
2
2
2
2
1
0
1
1
1
1
10
)0 3/
10
10
10
1/ Excluding Guinea. 1/ Less than 500 metric tons. 0
0
0
0
0
0
11
0
0
10
0
8
0
4
1
6
0
0
39
0
9
0
6
1
6
0
0
4
1
6
0
2
1
0
4
2
0
10
81
145
0
0
1
1
2
2
1
0
1
0
2
1
2
1
10
0
1/
0
0
1/
2
1
a
2
0
3/
1
10
11
-
Table 13.--Vegetable oil: Requiremenl;s, production, and import need or export avaHability, Afl'ica anl West ASia, 1958,
and projected to 1962 and 1966
1958
1962
1966
:
J.mpot't neeCl or
•
~mpon nee'J. or
:
I
:
: export avai l~hility (-)
Re~i.rementll
Requirements
Re9.1;!iremerr\;s
;~~ availabilit..,z: (-)
:
:
:
Esti- :To meet :Pro- For pro-ITo meet :Pro- : For pro- : To meet
For pro-ITo meet :Pro- : For prr;- : To meet
Country
ma~lld
: nut.ri-. :duc- jected : nutri- :duc- : jected
jectel : nutrl- ~duc- : jecteJ : nul:..ci­
: nutri.cvn- : tioMl :tion
con- : tional :t1on : concoo- : tiona1. ~tion : conI
tional
: tional
s~~tion:standard:
sa~ion:standarQ:
: sumptioo : st'lIxiaM sunrption :staocl ". tv] :
: sal!ption : stall'laro
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - b.9,.OO metric tons - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Africa
60
60
86
106
B6
56
-:rrg6rJ.a
22
30
95
56
5B
95
35
0
0
0
0
38
38
3&
36
36
Angola
35
36
35
35
Belgian Congo and
176
176
-185
450 -274
-274
165
165
-lB5
326
RuaIXIa-UI"UIXii
154
350
139
49 - 15
30
cameroun
30
47
-14
34
- 15
-14
34
43
33
33
lW)
108
100
128
100
206
206
228
228
252
252
Jl~~
Egypt
1l~5
106 - 6
6
100
100
102
84
91
91
-11
-11
Ethiopia
84
91
61
64
61
78 -14
French Eq. Afl'ica
58
71
- 10
-14
64
58
65
- 10
202
202
182
-265
-250
192
192
442
467 -265
French W:st Africa ,g,
125
125
-250
66
62
62
62
Ghana
58
58
4
4
55
59
55
- 4
- 4
36
Ga:inea
32
32
41
34
43
36
45 - 9
34
- 9
- 229
- 9
26
26
22
23
23
17
23
25
25
3
Kerva3
3
2
2
46
40
40
Liberia
42
42
42
3
44
43
43
3
18 - 7
10
10
11
11
8
17
Libya
9
7
15
7
- 7
18
22
76
Morocoo
103
89
71
98
98
76
64
30
89
71
Nigeria & British
-697
-627
Cameroons
382
382
408
408 1,035
948
-627
433
433 1,130 -697
Rhodesia and
10
10
0
0
l{rasalard, Fed. of
10
12 - 1
11
11
5
5
3
- 1
6
182 - 42
Sudan
6
Jl~o
109
109
124
12h
130
140
- u2
147
62
Tanganyika
62
20
36
25
9
23
37
55
59
59
37
36
Togo
21
24
13
13
15
15
23
9
9
14
14
9
9
22
128 - 90
Tunisia
100
41
38
38
52
- 67
- 90
33
33
- 67
Union of So. Afrioa
105 - 26
- 26
- 22
- 22
53
53
47
73
73
95
79
79
160
other
180
220
238
187
207
173
257 - 70
193
-50
- 65
- 45
Total
2,202
2,222 3,394 -1,192
-1,172
1,704
1,955 2,500 2,044
2,064 3,047
-1,003
-983
-- - - - - -
-
.v
-
l="
VI
-
-
-
-
60
1
49
23
6
-1005
10
232
75
1
49
23
- 6
-1005
10
2h7
West Asia
rran
38
6
53
13
12
27
208
45
Iraq
Israel
Jorosn
Lebanon
Syria
Turkey
other
Total
402
-
Y
112
10
53
22
12
27
208
u5
489
--
--
36
80
123
5
5
8
14
26
162
35
291
11
11
54
23
13
32
242
49
504
54
28
13
32
2112
49
552
------
Names and borders as they geooraJJ:;r existed in 1958.
Y
50
7
7
8
18
35
176
38
- 66
11.
11.
165
3'39
--
30
4
47
15
- 5
- 663
~-
Elccluding Guinp.a.
-
120
12
57
32
73
4
47
20
5
3
]]1
40
293
5S
623
213
---
-
-
---
135
12
57
32
14
40
293
55
638
--.-~--
60
11
---
8
9
20
45
193
45
391
--
-
--
agricultural. exports avereged about $560 million annually compared With
agricultural imports of $375 million per year.
Historically, West Asian farming has been genera.lly characterized by
large land holdings, though recently, efforts toward a greater distribution
of farmland have been made. Perccapita income averages only about $175 per
year for the area as a whole, which limits purchasing power.
Agricultural develo:r;ment has been hindered by low educational levels,
but some improvement is occurring. About one-third of the peo:pl~ of West
Asia can read and write. However, 90 percent in Israel and 65 to 80 percent
in Lebanon are literate.
Agriculture is dominant in the economies of West Asian countries, though
industrial development is beginning and oil is a substantial source of wealth
in several countries. In gener..~> limited agricultural technology leaves a
large potential for further development. Fertilizer use is increasing and
the U.N. Fbod and Agriculture Orgav"ization reports that the area now produces
about la),ooo tons of :plant nutrients per year.
Grains are produced on much of the cultivated land in West Asia. In­
cluding !mp:>rts, '~hey account for two-thirds of the total energy intake of'
the people. Sugar, fats, and. oua account for about 15 percent. Fruit and
vegetables also are important f'oods.
The daily per-capita energy intake for West Asia as a whole in 1958
averaged 2,365 calories, 35 below the nutritional standard. Some calorie
shortage was indicated in four of' the seven countries studied. About two­
thirds of the energy intake in Israel, Lebanon, and Jordan was supplied by
imported cOIlDl1Odities in 1958, but the average f'or the ct.rea as a whole was
only 12 percent. Imports are expected to contribute a higher percentage by
the mid-1960's as increases in the domestic proauction of :food are not ex­
pected to equal those in consumption. Per-capita cons~Jtion of' sel~cted
commodities in 1958 and as projected for 1962 and 1966 is shown below:
COltIOOd1ty
1958
Wheat
Dry beans and ,peas
Nonfat dry milk
Vegetable oil
159·6
1200
.13
5.3
~~
- Kilograms
165.9
12.1
.15
6.1
~
168.3
12.1
.15
6.6
Consumption of protein meets nutritional standards, except f'or a ruinor
pulse protein shortage in Syria. West Asia produces fairly large quantities
of fats and oils but not enough. to meet requirements. Use f'alls short of'
the standard in several countries.
Wheat is the basic food crop in the West Asian diet. The area :lLs a net
importer even though in some years several countries may be expected to ex­
port 'Wheat. Although the a.'t"ea's production should increase over the next
- 46 ­
several years, wheat requirements in 1966 are expected to exceed domestic
production by 1.4 million tons, compared with about 625,000 tons in 1958.
The increased shortage will reflect increased demand generated by economic
developnent.
West Asia imports and exports coarse grains but is on a small net export
basis. The net export position reflects large shipnents of' barley f'rom Iraq.
Consumption of coarse grains is increasing as the livestock and poultry
industries develop. Import needs f'or milled rice have been projected at
125-150,000 tons annually f'or the next several years. Requirements f'or vege­
table oU are increasing f'aster than production, with import needs projected
at 232,000 tons for 1966--over twice that of 195ft
An estimated 1. 3 million tons of wheat above projected consumption are needed to correct the calorie shortage in 1966. The f'at shortage could be corrected by only 15,000 tons of vegetable oil because of the expected in­ creases in both imports and domestic production. Although the area has t·he physical capacity to produce a aubstan"tial
part of the wheat required to correct calorie shortages, this does not appear
likely. The additional land resources necessary are unlikely to be allocated
to wheat, in view of the emphasis on export crops and other products. The
United states is already supplying a substantial part of the area's wheat
import requirements (as well as other food import requirements) under special
programs. If this food gap is to be narrowed appreciably over the next 5
years, it will probably be accomplished by larger i.Inp)rts.
FAR EAST, COMMUNIST ASIA, AND OCEANIA
Far East
The Far East is the on.lJ" major region of the world with an already
dense population and a high rate of population growth.
A1most half of the
free people of the world--900 million--live in this area, and half of these
are in India. The region's population growth rate is second only to that of
Latin America, with some countries increasing more than 3 percent a year.
OVer "the next decade the area will add m:>re people than are now living in the
United States.
y
Food production has been increasing since the serious disruption of'
World War II, rising an average of over 3 percent a year since 1953. How(­
ever, the amunt of' f'001 produced per capita bas not yet regained prewar
levels. Differences Wi thin the area are large. Production per person has
increased 30 percent over prewar in Japan, barely kept ahead of' population
in India,. and declined 10 percent in Indonesia and 20 percent in Pakistan.
D
JaJ?8D. is here included in the Far East although in the world analysis
it was combined with the other industrialized countries of the world.
- 47 ­
Agriculture IS pattern of production in the Far East has been remarkably
rigid for decades and in some countries for centuries. Each commodity has
about the same relation to total agricultural production as a que~er cen­
tury ago.
Firat and most obvious of the factors accounting for this rigidity are
climate and soil. The warm, moist, monsoon cl.1mate of much of the area
favors rice. Conditions are favorable for wheat and other temperate zone
cro:ps only in such areas as northern India, northern West Pakistan,
Afghanistan, and Japan. Aside f!'om physical factors, the ratio of population
to agricultural land has the greatest infiuence on the production pattern.
The region's average is one-third hectare per person, ranging from less than
0.1 hectare in Japan to nearly 0.5 in Burma.
The limited supply of land requires cultivation of crops with high caJ.o­
ric yields per hectare. Rice accounts for 40 percent of the value of a1l
agricultural production in the Far East. .Grains, sugar, roots, and tubers-­
all high in carbobydrates--account for two-thirds of farm production; pulses,
fruits ,. and vegetables 10 percent; oil crops 10 percent; and nonfc,?d crops
14 percent. Conversion of grains to livestock is too costly for mst of the
area. Onl.,.v in Afghanistan is the livestock industry of relative importance,
though Japan plans increased l.ivestock production.
The abundance of cheap labor favors produ.ction of such labor-intensive
crops as tea, ~iL~, and. rice. For the Far East as a whole, app1."Oximately 70
percent of the population is employed in farming, ranging from 35 percent in
Japan to 95 percent in Laos. The ruraJ. population is largely illiterate.
The proportion who can read and. -write is only 5 percent in Af'ghanistan, 15
percent in Pakistan, and 20 percent in India. At the other end of the scale,
Japan is 95 percent literate.
"~though the Far East devotes much of its agricultural resou.rces to food
production--:t'rom 94 percent in the most densely populated countries to 29
percent in Mala.ya.--use of other capital inputs such as chemical fertilizer,
irrigation, machinery, improved seeds, pesticides, and insecticides is low
in all but a few nations such as Japan. India is applying only 1. 4 kilos of
fertilizer plant nutrients per hectare and Pakistan 0.5 kilo. This compares
with 245 kilos in Japan a'l1d 75 in Western Europe. large-scale irrigation is
practiced in some countries, but much needs to be done to improve the effi­
ciency of water utilization in most areas except Japan and Taiwan.
Yields per acre in the Far East, l'8.rticula.rly for food crops J are among
the lowest in the world, reflecting the lov level of capital inputs in agri-·
culture. However, variation within the region is large. Japan's per acre
rice yield is about 3.5 times India.'s, and the difference is widening as
yields in Japan are increasing far lOOre rapidly than in India.
,!
Economic incentives are almost tota.lly lacking in many of the less­
developed Far Eastern countries, refiecting subsistence production and low
purchasing power. Much of the food produced is consumed on farms and only
the residual is marketed. Consequently, production Shol~ no appreciable
response to changes in price.
"
Per capita income is extremely low in nearly every country, though 1 t rose an average of 2 percent a year from 1955 to 1959. The present average of about :f80 per year for the Far East, excluding Japan, is lower than for any other region except Communist Asia, and is less than 4 percent of the U.S. level. Well over half of personal income is spent for food. This relation appears rather stable. Thus, future increases- in income will strengthen demand for food. Food consumption in the Far East follows closely the pattern of produc­ tion. OVer 65 percent of the caloric content of' the diet comes from food grains, including grain sorghum and millets, about 13 percent from roots, tubers, and pulses. The result is a diet high in carbohydrates and low in protein and fats. Rice is the staple in most countries though wheat is im­ portant in India, Af'ghanistan, Pakistan, and Japan. Barley makes a sub­ stantial contribution to the diet in Korea and Japan, and corn in the PhUippines and Indonesia. Food balances constructed .for 1958 for II countries .nth 94 :percent of
the region I a popuJ.a.tion show that consumption per capita averaged 2,100
calories per day, lower than in any other region and 200 below the nutrition­
al standard established for the Far East. Only Japan and Taiwan 'Were above
the standard.
The regional weighted average food balance showed an animal protein de­
ficiency of 1 gram per person per day J a puJ.se protein deficiency of one­
tenth gram, and an .rother" protein deficiency of 4 grams. The fat deficiency
was 6 grams. In 1958, these deficits were equivalent to 20 million tons of
wheat, 100,000 tons of dry beans and peas, 610,000 tons of nonfat dry'milk,
and 1. 5 million tons of vegetable oil. Although deficits have been expressed
in terms of these four cOIllllX)d1ties, substitute products could be utilized, as
available, to meet these requirements.
The fat shortage is zoore pronounced :I.n the Far East than in other
regions, even though this region is a net exporter of vegetable oil. Diets
in 1 of the 11 countries are ahort of fats, with Pakistan and South Korea
consuming less than half the reference standard. The Japanese diet also
is well below the fat standard, but the people do not accept such a level as
necessary.
Consumption of animaJ. protein appears adequa.te, on the average, in all
countries except India and Indonesia. Consumption of pulses--mostly beans,
peas and soybeans--is more than adequate in most countries, but below the
reconmended minimum in Malaya, Thailand, and Ceylon.
Fats and Oils, along with animal protein, are among the most costly
foods. The inadequate level of consumption reflects lim!ted foreign ex­
change and low consumer purchasing power more than an actual shortage.
-
49 .
Far East: Production, net imports and unfilled deficit as
percentages of requirements to meet nutritional
standards for 1958, and proiected 1962 and 1966
PERCENT
0
Wheat
1958 1962 1966 Dry beans
and peas
1958
1962
1966
20
40
60
80
100
1958
Nonfat dry
1962
milk
1966
•
Production ~ Net imports I:::::~ Unfilled deficit
*IMPORTS O.S PERCENT AND UNFILLED DEFICIT O.S PERCENT IN 1962 AND 1966.
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
NEG. ERS 354-61 (8)
ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE
Figure 8
Diets are deficient in some countries partly because foods are sold to
purchase other necessities. Burma and Thailand export one-fourth to one­
third of' their rice production and greater shares of some minor crops.
Ceylon aJl.d. Malaya B.:!.locate more than half of their farm resources to such
nonfood crops as rubber and tea. MJre than half a million tons elf fish were
exported in 1958, principally :from Japan. Net exports of vegetable oil
exceeded one million tons in that year.
The Far East is a net importer of' over 10 million tons of food grains,
largely wheat, whereas the area was a net exporter prewar. The region also
imports substantia.l quantities of pulses, fruit and vegetablee., and dairy
products.
The pattern of consumption also has been relatively stable in the Far
East. This results largely from the foods available and preferences. Re­
ligion also is a strong influence, particularly in India where Hindu beliefs
f'orbid slaughter of' an1maJ.s. Religious precepts also prohibit consumption of
certain an1m~i.l products by MJslerns.
Despite general stability.. some shifts in consumption have been noted.
Largely becau;::;e of increased imports, wheat concUIJ?ption has gained relative
50
to rice and other staples. De!JJand. for animal produ~t!3 is rising sharply in
a few countries; consumption of fats and oils also is increasing.
The food deficits of the Far FASt are I1D.tch too large to be made up by
imports. The great bulk must be fiLled by increased production Within the
region. A host of problem-; face 1;he area: Rismg population and a. shrinking
man-to-land ratio, widespreM illiteracy and other social :problems ~ low
purchasing power, shortages of private and public facilities serving ~gl"i­
culture. These problems l1Jake it unlikely that production 'Will increase
~nough to erase the deficits in th~ foreseeable future.
The area of cul tj.vable lema in th.e Far. Ea.8t is lim!tf'd. HhiJ e such
countries as Burma, Thailand~ and the PhiJ.ippinp.s can increas':." the area wi.th
little difficulty, others will not be able to ma.lntain the preseI!t acreage.
Meanwhile, population will continue to groVe Agr:fcultural land !)er cap1.ta
is projected to shrink from one-third hectare in 1959 to one-~ourth hectar~
in 1975. However.. :1.ncreased multiple cropping offers added :poRc1bilities 1'01'
increasing production. Japan has about 60 percent of' its land under dOl,ble
cropping. Taiwan gets an average of two crops a year. :Rl!t in IndJa on)y 15
percent of the land is double cropped.
These projections indicate that the only real possibil.ity of raising
food production is to increase yield.s per ac-re through bett.er management and.
larger capital inputs.
Increased use of fertilizer and irrigation in combination with other
improved farming practices offers the greatest potential for raising yields.
Current use is only a fraction of the practical pott=>.ntial. If application
rates reached the Japanese level, total use for the rest of the reginn would
increase 45-fold. While some increase is likely, the factors that have
hindered fertilizer use in the past are likely to do so :for some time to CQm~!.
Chief among these are lack or production and distribution facil1ties, short­
age of foreign exchange, inadequate knowledge on the part of farmers, in­
stability of farm prices, and insecurity of tenure. India produced only
120,000 tons of nitrogen in 1960, and imports have f\.veragea about. 130,000
t.ons. The country plans to produce 1 milli.on tons by 1900, but it js doubt­
f'lJ~ that all factor.ies planned. will be in production by that time.
Even
:nmoo larger quantities could be used to advantage.
Japan irrig$tes 96 ,perc~.nt of its rj.ce crop, and in northern Inala, Heat
Pakistan, Korea, an.d Taiwan irrigation is very important, but in most other
countries of the al"ea controlled trrigat.1on is not widely pract:1 ce~. While
:many countries have irrig'8.t10n projects in the planntng o:r constrnct.ion
stages, irrigation is not. l.ikely to increase enough to slgnificant.ly reduce
the food deficit.
Prospects for increased u..~e of' machinery,. improved :::eads. pesticides,
and. insecticides also are not promising. Factors likely to hinder such
developments are lack o.f investmen.t capital, ,.,-:t,despl"t=>aa. ru:r.al ill:1teracy,
badly depleted so:i.l~., and lack of' entr~'Preneuri al ahili ty.
51
• I
!
Largest production gains over the next 5 years are likely in India
where the potential is greater ~han in most of the Far East and where agri­
cultural. investments have been large. Pakistan, Ceylon, and Indonesia will
find it difficult to raise production per capita. The agricultural. potential
in sparsely populated Burma, Thaiiand, Laos, Cambodia, and South Viet.nam
probably will not be fUlly realized as commercial export demand for rice is
likely to continue to lag. Yields in the Philippines are expected to rise
at only a slightly higher rate than popuJ.ation. Past rates of increase :In
Japan and Taiwan, where yields are high, are not likely to be Wlint.a.ined
indefinitely.
Tables 14-17 project levels of consumption, product.ion., an.d tmparts for
wheat, dry' beans and peas, nonfat dry'milk, and vegetable oil for 1962 and
1966. These show production of wheat increasing 43 percent between 1958 and
1966, Pulse production wiJ.~ be up 50 :percent and vegetable oil 24 percent .
.J apan is the only country producing any quantity of nonfat dry m.t1.k in the
Far East and shows a one-third increase. A greater increase in production of
wheat, dry beans and peas, and vegetable oil is shown between 1958 end 1.962
t.han between 1962 and 1966, because of a poor crop year in 1958. The whea.t
index was 108 in 1958 compared to ~17 in 1957, pulses were reduced 12 per­
cent, and all crops except peanuts were down. Prodl1.ctj.on of wheat is
expected to increase 25 percent in India from 1962 to 1966, compared to 9
pet'cent :In Japan and 7 percent in Pakistan.
Requirement.s for prOjected consumption of the above four comrnod.it.ies
for 1962 and 1966 indieate an improvement in t.he Far Eastern diet over the
1958 level. Annual Der-capita consumption for these commoditi.es, plus rice
and coarse gl'."8.ins fo!" comparison, in 1958 and as projected for 1962 and 1966
are as follows:
Commoditl
Wheat
Dry beans and peas
Noni'at c'b:jr milk
Vegetable oil
Rice
Coarse grains
1958
!2§.g
1966
27·5
16.5
0.16
4.3
Kilograms
31.4
18.3
0.19
4,9
92.1
41.1
33·9
19·2
0·21
5.3
90·8
41.1
91.9
42.2
Per-capita consumption of all food gra:i.ns and pulses is project.ed to
increase from 176 kilos in 1958 to 183 in 1962, and to 187 in 1966. India
shows a substantial increase, from 180 kilos per capita of grains and pulses
in 1958 to 194 kilos in 1966, up 8 percent. Pakistan and Indonesia vil1
probe.bly expand per-capita consumption of these foods only 3 and 2 percent
resrectively ruLring the same period.
Consumption is increasing faster than production and, as a result., it
is expected that imports of wheat will go up 50 percent between 1958 and
1966, and nonfat dry milk imports will more than doubl.e. Those countries
which are net importers of vegetable oil will increase imports more than
52
­
Table 14.--/~eat:
Requirements, production, and import need or export availability, Far East, Communist Asia, and Uceania, 1958 and projected to 1962 and 1966 --
1958
Requirements
i
:
Country Estimated
consumpHon
:
:
:
:
:
To meet: Pronutri- : ductional : tion
stan- :
:
dard
:
For
:
pro:
jected :
consump-:
tion
:
--- - -- - - - --- -
·.n
w
Far East 3urma
Ceylon
India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea, South
Malaya
Pakistan
Philippines
Taiwan
Thailand
Other
Total
Communist Asia
Oceania Australia New Lealdnd
Other
Total 40 710
300
700
11,100 21,000
140
3,800
3,700
3,700
500
780
170
420
4,400
6,000
390
860
260
260
40
1,400
2,500
3,900
:
Requirements
- -
:
To meet
nutri- :
tional ~
stan:
dard
-- -- -
~
1962
: Import need or export
:
availability (-) .
Pro- 'For
: To meet
duc- :projected : nutrition ~consump- : tional
: stan;tion
: dard
- -
1 1 000 metric tons Requirements
:
:
:
For
pro:
jected :
consump-:
tion
:
-----
To meat :
nutri- :
tional :
stan:
dard
1966
: Import need or export
:
availability (-)
Pro- : For
: To meet
duc- : i1rojected: nutri­
tion : c0nsump- : tional
: stan; tion
: dard
---- - - --- - - -- - - -- - - -
10
0
7,900
0
1,300
120
0
3,700
0
40
0
2,200
60
380
14,450
200
4,200
620
250
5,600
425
300
50
2,600
800 770
24,400
4,100
4,200
870
480
6,700
1,000
300
1,800
4,000
20
0
10,400
0
1,650
170
0
4,100
0
95
0
2,200
40
380
4,050
200
2,550
450
250
1,500
425
205
50
400
780
770
14,000
4,100
2,550
700
480
2,600
1,000
205
1,800
1,800
70
450
17 ,600
320
4,600
720
320
6,300
650
340
95
- -
~,700
900
850
26,700
4,400
4,600
970
540
7,300
1,200
340
2,000
4,100
25
0
13,000
0
1,800
210
0
4,400
0
120
0
2,200
45
450
4,600
320
2,800
510
320
1,900
650
220
95
500
875
850
13,700
4,400
2,800
760
540
2,900
1,200
220
2,000
1,900
23,540
43,530
15,270
29,135
49,420
18,635
10,500
30,785
34,165
53,900
21,755
12,410
32,145
26,700
29,750
26,600
29,290
32,000
25,250
4,040
6,750
31,130
34,380
26,080
5,050
8,300
2,320
350
10
2,320
350
100
5,850
180
0
2,500
435
10
2,500
435
100
6,000
260
0
-3,500
175
10
-3,500
175
100
2,700
475
10
2,700 475
100
6,500
325
0
-3,800
150
10
-3,800
150
100
2,680
2,770
6,030
2,945
3,035
6,260
-3,315
-3,225
3,185
3,275
6,825
-3,640
-3,550
11
Table 15·--Dry beans and peas:
1958
Requirements
Requirements, produc'cion, and import need or export availability, Fnr East, Communist Asia, and Oceania,
19~8 and projected to 1962 and 1966
Requirements
:
:
:
;
Country
Estimated
consumption
: To meet: Pro: nutri- I duc: tion<J1 : tion
I
I stanI
: dard
-- - -- ------
V1
l='
Far East
Surma
Ceylon
India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea, South
Malaya
Pakistan
Philippines
Taiwan
Thailand
Other
-
200
70
11,000
460
470
200
144
11,000
460
470
300
9
9,800
460
400
2~
2~
2~
40
1,200
188
~4
1~
1,200
188
1,200
2~
2~
84
340
lC~
24
92
260
3:;0
18~
For
:
pro:
jected I
consump-:
tion
:
To meet :
nutri- I
tional :
I
stan:
dard
1962
: Import need or export
availability (-)
:
Pro- : For
: To meet
duc- I projected: nutrition : con sump- : tional
I tion
: stanI
: dard
- - - - - - - - - - - - 1,000 metric tons
220
80
220
13,~00
~OO
-120
70
13,~00
~OO
13,~OO
C·
~OO
0
480
480
400
80
-120
146
0
0
80
'Z1
'Z1
~
~
60
1,300
220
30
130
60
1,300
220
30
1~
4~
4~
0
130
1,300
220
26
140
~10
~1~
~OG
4
-10
10
n
0
:
:
:
For
I
projected :
consump-:
tion
:
-- ----
3t10
10
1~6
Requirements
--
meet.:
nutri- I
tional :
:
stan:
dard
10
1966
: Import need or export
availability (-)
:
Pro- : For
: To meet
duc- : projected: nutri­
tion : consump- : tiona1
: tion
: stan­
I
I dard
- - - - - - - -- - - - - - -
240
91
240
176
26J
1~,300
1~,300
540
490
30
70
~40
1~,300
~40
490
30
70
0
0
4
-10
1,~00
1,~00
2~0
250
2~0
32
150
32
34
1~0
1~
61~
620
170
600
- -- -120
400
23
-120
80
0
0
90
7
2~
4~
4~
1,~00
0
0
-2
-20
0
0
-2
-:::0
1~
20
11
16~
0
0
90
7
Total
14,102
14,221 12,770
17 ,0~7
17,138
16,973
84
16~
19,308
19,398
19,213
9~
18~
Communist Asia
12,200
12,200 12,200
13,100
13,100
13,100
0
0
14,250
14,2~0
14,250
0
0
13
3
5
0
0
0
0
14
3
14
3
()
-'
14
3
5
0
0
0
5
C·
0
G
21
0
0
22
22
22
0
0
0ceania
Australia
New Zealand
Other
Total
12
3
5
12
3
5
12
3
5
13
3
5
13
3
5
20
20
20
21
21
-
11
Excludes soybeans and peanuts.
---
"-
v
Requirements, production. and i~~ort need or export availability, Far East, Communis~ Asia, and Oceania,
1958 anc projected to 1962 and 1966
Table 16.-··Nonfat dry milk:
1958
Requirements
i
country
Esti­
mated
con­
sump­
tion
-
VI
VI
Far East
Burma
Ceylon
India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea. South
Malaya
Pakistan
Philippines
Taiwan
Thailand
Other
To meet: Pro­
nutri- duc­
tional : tion
stan­
dard
-
1
45
1
34
15
1
1
-
-
-
-
1
1
415
-
-
°°°
°
12
°o
°o
°°o
-I -
-
-
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
~
o
o
o
3
25
10
1
10
1
40
12
180
894
°
°
14
683
o
o
715
o
13
3
14
3
0
14
3
5
35
42
0
21
77
17
34
15
1
1
1
8
1
40
.136
807
o
13
.
3
1_0
16
-
To meet
nutritional
standard
25
10
270
18
10
I
-
Fo:;:
proI
jected
con sump- :
tion
:
1966
Import need or export
Requirements
Import need or export
,___a_v_a_i_l_ab_i_l~i_t~y.~(-~)__-+________________
availability (-)
Pro- For
To meet
For
To meet
Pro- For
To meet
ducprojected
nutrip:;:onutriducprojected
nutri­
tion
consump- I tional
jected
tional
tion
consumptional
I tion
stancon sump- : stantion
stan­
dard
I tion
: dard
dard
1,000 metric tons ___
_______________________ _
1
6
460
290
40
17
1
3
18
10
Communist Asia
Total
-
1
Total
Oceania Australia New Zealand
Other
1962
Requirements
6
60
6
40
17
1
o
14
1
6
60
6
26
1
6
460
290
26
1
8
1
8
120
12
500
300
45
~5
22
22
2
5
2
o
1
3
17
1
3
25
10
25
10
30
12
1
Iv
1
40
1
166
o
°oo
o
17
o
o
1
S
1
8
16
o
o
120
12
29
22
2
o
5
30
10
500
300
29
22
2
5
30
12
1
40
o
o
o
10
5
30
12
1
40
o
o
o
880
268
966
16
25~
950
715
o
790
o
o
790
15
3
15
3
95
-80
-80
65
-62
0
5
0
0
-62
5
18
23
160
-142
-137
61
-47
-47
-52
5
55
0
0
-52
5
22
116
-99
-94
12
1
Table 17·--Vegetable oil:
Requirements, production, and import need or export availability, Far East, Communist Asia, and Oceanid,
1958 and projected to 1962 and 1966
1958
Requirements
1962
:
Country
~
Esti- : To meet: Promated : nutri- : duccon- I tional : tion
sump- : stan- I
tion I dard
:
- - - -
----
- -- -
Far East Burma
Ceylon
India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea, South
Malaya
Pakistan
Philippines
Taiwan
Thailand
Other
80
150
1,920
490
340
8
27
175
125
22
133
210
160 150
2,240
490
700
160
27
660
125
27
133
300
60
295
1.900
850
110
7
150
175
745
22
145
270
116
170
2,285
530
420
Total
3,680
5,172
4,729
1,450
2,920
1,450
19
6
15
19
6
15
2
0
50
40
40
52
Communist Asia
Oceania Australia
New Zealand
Other
Total
:'-r­
1966
: Import need or export
Requirements
: Import need or export
:
availability (-)
:
availability (-)
:
:
:
For
I To meet : Pro- : For
: To n,';'-;'t-: To meet
For
: To meet : Pro- : For
proI nutri: duc- : projected: nutripro: nutri- : duc- : projected I nutri­
jected I tional : tion : consump- : tiona1
j ected : tional
;
tion : consump- : tion31
consurrp-: stan: tion
:
: stanconsump-: stan: tion
:
I stan­
tion
: dard
:
: dard
tion
:
: dard
:
: dard
:
- - - - - - 1 2 000 metric tons
- -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Requirements
:
:
---
-
-
-
-
-
180
100
170
320
2,800 2,220
530
880
820
120
180
10
55
150
730
190
150
900
55
20
120
150
350
310
16
-150
65
-350
300
11
-95
110
-750
35
-30
40
80
-150
580
-350
700
170
-95
540
-750
35
-30
40
135
190
2,550
580
600
26
60
400
180
70
130
38:;
200
190
3,000
580
840
200
60
770
180
70
130
385
125
350
2,440
900
140
10
150
200
1,000
30
160
340
10
-160
110
-320
460
16
-90
2GO
-820
40
-30
45
75
-160
560
-320
700
190
-90
570
-820
40
-30
45
4,572
6,140
5,370
-798
770
5,306
6,605
5,845
-539
760
1,428
3,088
1,428
0
1,660
1,450
3,31G
1,450
0
1,660
21 6
15
21
6
15
2
0
50
19
6
-35
19
6
-35
22 6
15
22
6
15
2
0
50
20
6
-35
20
6
-35
42
42
52
-10
-10
43
43
52
-9
-9
21
55
300
150
55
120
350
three times, while oil exports Will expand only slightly. Imports of dry
beans and peas will remain almost constant, indicating the balance in pulse
protein consumption.
The gap between requirements to ·meet the nutritional standard and pro­
jected consumption in 1962 is equivalent to 20 million tons of' wheat, 1.6
million tons of'vegetable oils, 81,000 tons of' d...-y 'beans and peas, and
715,000 tons of' nonfat dry milk. For 1966, the magnitude of the def'icits
declines slightly.
It is highly unlikely that the Far East will import enough food to
bridge the gap between domestic production and the nutritional standard by
1966. Limited foreign exchange will make it impossible for many countries
to import the necessary quantities, :Particularly with the emphasis on imports
of capital goods f'or in.dustrial development. Some of these commodities may
be imported, principally from the United States, under some concessional
arrangement. However, quantities oi' dry beans and peas, nonf'at dry milk, and
vegetable oil available for these programs are limited. Although the U. S.
has large supplies of surplus .wheat, individual consumers must pay for their
purchases and low incomes limit the quantities they can buy. Also, people
have to learn to prepare and eat these "new" foods.
other limitations are unloading facilities at ports, storage, processing
establisbments, and transportation. In India, port-handling capacity can
only be expanded to 500,000 tons of grain per month in the near future.
Storage is being doubled in India, but the 2.5 million tons available in 1960
was overfilled and forced a reduction in grain imports. Inland transporta­
tion systems in most countries are so inadequate that local shortages can
exist while national stocks are available.
Continued outs:l,de financial and technical assistance will be necessary
for Far Eastern agriculture. Such assistance will be sprea.d thinly over 100
million or more f'armers. Furthermore, the SOCial, psychological, and insti­
tutional changes necessary and the reluctance of the peasants to alter their
ways are formidable barriers.
In sumnary, Far F..astern agriCulture will be hard pressed to maintain
current consumption levels, and the existing gap between production and con­
sumption will Widen. Some progress bas been made in improving diets through
impor."'. and the Far East Will probably consume 4.5 million more tons of
wheat in 1962 than would have been consumed if' the 1958 level of consumption
were only maintained. This is indica+.ive of the success of the U. S. Food
for Peace Program in f'eeding hungr,y people in the less-developed areas of
the world. However, total 1m;ports rt:9resent less than 10 percent of total
consumption, and the huge deficit in the diet of the Far East must be made
up through improved production within the countries themselves.
Conmrunist Asia
The agricultural situation in Mainland China has deteriorated badly
since 1958. In that year, be±~ore the conmrunalization of' agriculture,
57 ­
.
,.,
"
production probably was 10 percmt higher than in the more nearly normal year
of 1957. The intake of calories probably has dropped from arol.Uld 2,200 per
person in 1958 to below 2,000. Avoiding starvation has become the number
one problem of the Communist regime.
Mainland China's agriculture is so confused and chaotic that it is not
possible to project production or imports for the next 5 years with any
degree of reliability. Nevertheless, rough estimates have been made to fill
in the world picture.
Production in 1962 would have to be 7. 4 percent above 1958, and 16. 5
percent above in 1966, to maintain the same per-capita caloric intake for
the increasing population. However, production has declined since 1958, and
poor crop prospects for 1961 indicate low supplies for the first half of
1962. Intentions to .import 2 to 3 million tons of grain have been indicated,
but still there Will remain a critical deficit in 1962.
The regime is struggling to correct some of its mistakes and to stave I:lff disaster, but it is unlikely that it can do so on any sound and lasting 'LIas is . Population is expected to increa.se faster than food supplies. C'ommunism's ineptness in handling farm problems and farm peoplE! is expected to retard farm production.
There is little possibility that the amounts needed to bridge the nutri­
tional gap will be imported. The Government 'Will likely continue it.s policy
of providing only enough food to permit the popuJ.ation to carry a heavy work
program and to maintain discipline. The country is not likely to become a
net importer, except to avoid famine.
Even less is known about production Old consumption in other Communist Asian countries. Per-capita defiCits similar to those of Mainland China are projected for North
Korea, North Vietnam, and O1lter Mongolia. Oceania
Australia and New Zealand, as surplus producers of farm products, main­ tain high levels of domestic consumption and export large quantities of wool, dairy products, and meats. AustraJ.ia is also a major exporter of wheat. Both countries depend on fa~ exports for the bulk of their overseas
earnings, and both are expected to continue to emphasize ma.x:lmuin agricultuml.
production and exports for the next several years. Increased investment is
expected for transport facilities to expedite lOOvement of products to market
and for opening underdeveloped areas to farming and rural settlement.
Greater emphasis on industrial development in both areas ~ affect the
actual volume of commodities available for export during the next 5 years.
Australia and New Zealand are a.m:>ng the best fed nations in the world
with per-capita consumption averaging about 3,300 calories per day. With the
exception of sizable wheat deficits in New Zealand, the only other agri­
cultural deficiencies noted in these countries are vegetable oil, cotton,
and tobacco. There is no total fat deficit in the diet as vegetable oil
shortages are offset by above-average animal fat consumption.
Diets of the population of the islands of the South and Western Pacific
appear deficient in an1ma.l and "other" protein, but provide sufficient energy
to meet the nutritional standard. Substantial imports of rice, canned meat,
and wheat :flour v1l1 continue necessary to maintain this level of consumption
in certain areas.
WESTERN EUROPE
About 308 million people are living in the 16 countries of Western
Europe (excluding Iceland, Luxembourg, and other smaller countries) with a
total area of arable land about three-fifths that of the United states.
Agricultural production has risen rapidly during the postwar period, and the
area supplies nearly three-fourths of its food requirements. Expanding
economic activity and high purchasing power have -enabled imp:>rts of foods
needed in excess of production. West European diets are IOOre than adequate
in major nutrients, except in some local areas~ and are likely to continue
so for the next several years.
Agricultural production had recovered from the disruption of World War
II by about 1950. It rose about 17 percent between 1950 and 1958 compared
with a p:>pulatlon increase of about 6 percent. Western Europe's agriculture
in 1957-58 produced one-fourth more than before the war on slightly less
agricuJ.tura.l land and with more than one-fifth less labor. The area 'W!:!.S
nearly 75 percent self-sufficient in food by the end of the 1950 's compared
with 69 percent just before the war.
This great increase in agricultural output 'Was largely due to substan­
tial improvements in technology. This involved substantial increases in
application of fertilizers, development of mechanization even on small farms,
improved cultural practices, improved strains of both seeds and livestock,
and remarkable advances in the development and use of pesticides.
The improvement in agricultural technology was supported by many factors:
A generally high educationa.l level of farm operators and 'Workers, financial
incentives in the form of favorable price-cost relationships, the avail­
ability of technical advice, and improved credit facilities necessary for
purchase of capital equipment and fertilizer.
The majority of farms in Western Europe are family-operated. Most are
owned by operators, though in some areas renting is significant. Average
size ranges from a high of about 65 acres in the United Kingdom to about 8
or 9 acres in Greece.
The proportion of working population engaged in agdculture is probably
nearly 25 percent for the area as a whole, varying from 5 percent for the
Un.ited Kingdom, to about 40 percent for the Mediterrane8J1 area. France,
the largest agricultural producer, has about 25 percent of its 'Working popu­
lation on. farms. Sharp reductions in the number of 'Workers on farms has
occurred recently in response to the booming demand for employment in
59
.
indus trial, comm ercial , and servi ce indus tries. The Agric
u.ltur nl Censu s in
West Germany indic ates a declin e of abou.t one-q uarte r in
the nUlllber of
famiJ~ worke rs, a~d nearl y two-t hirds
in hired worke rs on fa~~ betwe en 1950
and 1960. The bulk of these adjust ments took place on
small farm..;;.
Government progra ms have a major impac t on agricu1tl~al
price s, incom es,
produ ction, and impor ts in Weste rn Europ e. Nea.rl y every
count ry has impor t
contr ols -- tarif fs, equ.a lizatio n fees) or quan titati ve
restri ction s -- but
the degre e of contr ol varie s by count ry and by commodity.
and trade monop olies in agric ultura l. cOl'!lm)dities are Wides Gover nment tradin g
pread , parti cular ly
in ~~ceJ Ge~J Austr ia, and SWitz erland . Fixed
or contr olled price s for
selec ted produ cts are a genera l. featu re in Weste rn Europ
e, but direc t defi­
cienc y payme nts to produ cers are .impo rtant only in the
Unite d Kingdom. Pro­
ducer ~ubsidiesJ predo minan tly for small farms or those
in unsat isfac otry
locat ions, are admin istere d in a number of count ries where
as ferti lizer , machi nery, and motor fuel are Widel y subsi such input ltems
dized . Weste rn
Europ e produ ces about 40 perce nt of the 'jvorld outpu
t of njtrog en, phosp horic
acid, and potas h, and consumes a very large part of its
own produ ction.
Labor produ ctivit y in agric ultur e incre ased about 4 perce
nt per year
betwe en 1950 and 1955 J des pite the small size of farms ,
scatte red small
holdi ngs, and outmo ded farm build ings. The great est incre
ase ' ..!curr ed in the
first half of the 1950' s, thoug h produ ctivit y contin ued
to rise from 1956 to
1960. The numbe r of tracto rs in Weste rn Europ e incre ased
from about 200 J 000
befor e the war to 2.6 millio n in 1958, when there was one
tract or for each
90 acres of cropla nd. By count ries, this range d from 30 acres
per tract or
in West Germa ny to more than 1,500 in Portu gal. Subst antia
l incre ases also
have occur red for other types of mecha nized equip nent such
as milki ng ma­
chine s and equip nent for liftin g of root crops , silag e
makin g, and handl ing
and feed mix:i.ng. The incre ase in produ ction effici ency
has
Weste rn Europ e's histo ry. It is simil ar to the exper ience no para. llel in
of U. S. agr-i­
cultu re over the past 2 decad es.
The dieta ry ~evel in Weste rn Europ e as a whole has been
fully adequ ate
in terms of calor ies, prote in, and fats for sever
al years . Altho ugh diets
of some parts of the popul ation in Spain , Portu gal, Greec
e, and Italy prob­
ably were inade quate in anima l prote in, the numbe r of calor
proba bly were adequ ate in virtu ally aJ~ parte of the area. ies consumed
Weste rn Europ e is the riche st and most conce ntrate d impor
t marke t for
agric ultur al cOImllOdities in the world . By and large , the
count ries in this
area have both the foreig n excha nge reserv es and consu mer
purch asing power
to pay for the impor ts of food and feeds tuffs aboV'e what
they
are capab le
of produ cing.
Most of these count ries impor t subst antia l quant ities of
feedg rains snd
oilca ke to produ ce lives tock products~ ~"'.··lief sourc e
of farm incom e in
Weste rn Europ e. Impor ts of feede'~ ~.< , :::;,.. :cial ly feedg
rains and oilca ke,
are likel y to incre ase in the fut,;,· '. "> . .::luse of the expec
ted incre ase in
lives tock numbe rs. Proje ction s cf;o.::"iJUJ.ation and consu
mptio n, toget her with
estim ates of do~·~<'tic produ ction of lives tock produ cts J
incti.c at,: impor ts of
coars e grain s will incre ase as wch as 1. '! millio n tons
betwe en 1962 and 1966.
-
60
Western ~urope: Net imports of (oarse grains, wheat, a~d vegetable oil 1958, and proiected 1962 and 1966 MIL. METRIC TONS
15
1-----­
----- -------
[,:,:,:,:,119 5 8
1962 - - - 1
~
_1966
101---­
5
o
Coarse grains
Wheat
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Vegetable oil
NEG. ERS 355-61 (8)
ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE
Figtlre 9
Since population is concentrated and the agricultural area limited,
Western Europe has been a major importer of food grains, chiefly wheat.
However, wheat imports are likely to decline perhaps 1. 4 million tons by
1966 because of the general upgrading of' the diet unde~ in all West
European countries. D::lmestic production of oil.seeds is negligible, and the
area as a whole will continue .as a large importer of oil.seeds and vegetable
oil.
Per-capita consumption of meat is estimated to increase approximately
Total consumption, after allow­
ing for per-capita and population increases, will likely increase around
300,000 metric tons annually. Consumption of cereals as food is expected to
decline, with the result that caloric intake for the region as a whole Will
increase only slightly. However, a large-proportion of wheat will be used
as feed, and thus per-capita utiliz'ation of wheat will increase slightly.
1.3 percent, or about 1.5 pounds, annual.ly.
Supplementary feeding programs are expected to be continued on a dimin­
ished scale for the next several years, particularly in Southern Europe. In
that area, improvements in diet may be limited by slow growth in pe:r-capita
real income, particularly in Spain and Portugal. B'..tt by and large, Western
- 61
Table 18.--Wheat and dry beans and peas: Requirements, production, and import need or export
availability, Western Europe, 1958 and projected to 1962 and 1966
I
Conanodity and
country
1958
1962
Estimated :
consump- : Produc: tion
tion
:
1966 :
import
need
: impOrt need
Estimated :
Estimated :
: Produc- : or export
consump- : Produc- : or export
consump: availavail­
: tion
: tion
tion
tion
:ability (-)
; ability (-)
:
:
- - - -1 2 000 metric tons
--
- --- - - - -- - -
1,392
358
710
4,585
703
654
7,817
Total
45,222
37,296
10
43
16
16
275
173
104
4
865
52
8
108
647
35
14
324
5
37
21
13
230
80
96
2
880
126
1
111
650
37
0
180
10
43
16
16
280
145
109
4
875
55
9
111
770
15
14
320
5
38
15
9
220
65
91
3
865
120
0
114
785
13
0
135
5
5
1
7
60
80
18
1
10
- 65
9
3
- 15
2
14
185
2,694
2,469
2,792
2,478
314
D;ry !2!il51ns and 12~51§
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
finland
France
Germany, West
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Total
--- ---
-- --- - -
- -
Wheat
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finla("d
France
Germany, :'Iest
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Svlitzerland
United Kingdom
!
790
1,200
428
420
8,860
5,876
1,659
602
..... ....'4~
"'7,
__
574
751
273 177
11,110
3,843
1,720
520
8,480
393
30
797
4,900
711
291
2,726
805
1,207
382
450
9,650
6,080
1,740
565
9,220
1,501
373
745 4,692
768
685
7,935
46,798
635
810
332
350
il,340
4,750
1,700
445
8,800
525
21
545
4,242
768
320
2,890
38,473
170
820
397
1,206
50
430
100
460
- 1,690
10,000
1,330 6,150
40
1,785
120
555
420 I
9,600
976 I
1,509
352 i
375
200
770
450 ,J
4,834
0 ,
823
365
692
5,045
8,070
I
8,325
I
48,079
735
795
351
350
12,690
4,750
1,730
435
9,300
516
20
680
4,734
791
313
'l,970
85 411 79
110
- 2,690
1,400
55 120 300
993 355 90
100 32
379
5,100
41,160
6,919
1
- 62 ­
-
I
I
!
I
If
II
I
I
10
43
16
16
280
125
112
4
885
58
9
115
770
15
15
315
2,788
5
41
15
9
225
60
94 3
910
124
0
117
800
12 0
120 2,535
5
2
1
7
55 65 18
1
- 25
­ 66
9
2
- 30 3
15 195
-
253
Table'19.-- Nonfat dry milk and vegetable oil: Requirements, production, and import need or export
availability, Western Europe, 1958 and projected to 1962 and 1966
1958
Commodity
and
Country
Nonfat dEY milk
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany, (vest
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Total
Vegetable oil
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany, Hest
Greece
Ireland
Italy.
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Total
Esti­
mated
con­
sumption
1962
:
:
Pro­
: duction
:
1
I
Esti­
mated
con­
sumption
:
: Import need
Esti­
mated
con­
sumption
Pro­ :
: duction :
:
or export
avail­
: ability (-)
:
- ­----­--­ --­ ---3
1966
1,000 metric tons
-­
:
: Import reed
:
Pro­ : or export
: duct ion :
avail­
:
: ability (-)
--­- ----------­
35
70
3
0
14
20
4
34
5
75
1
25
38
63
0
0
5
32
2
3
5
30
288
204
441
356
85
556
463
93
71
lOB
58
26
590
722
151
14
568
217
34
123
467
91
59
723
4
5
2
2
80
23
200
0
443
7
0
112
360
63
2
0
72
113
60
27
615
756
162
14
660
235
35
125
540
85
67
715
5
4
4
6
75
40
160
0
370
6
0
95
400
60
4
0
67
109
56
21
540
716
2
14
290
229
35
30
140
25
63
715
78
120
62
28
635
760
178
14
705
248
50
142
570
86
75
705
6
3
4
6
75
45
170
0
380
6
0
106
420
60
4
0
117
58
22
560
715
8
14
325
242
50
36
150
26
71
705
4,022
1,303
4,281
1,229
3,052
4,456
1,285
3,171
2~
I
!
4
40
62
110
3
0
24
55
9
25
9
100
1
40
80
100
0
0
10
65
3
5
12
40
3
0
- 18
10
3
0
14
- 10
6
20
- 3
60
5
50
90
130
3
0
35
60
9
29
20
125
1
50
110
123
0
0
15
75
5
9
25
50
4
0
- 20
7
3
0
20
- 15
4
20
- 5
75
72
,i
I
- 63
Europe during the next 5 years will enjoy not only a relatively satisfactory
diet, but an improved diet as per-capita real incomes rise.
EASTERN EUROPE
Eastern Europe, which includes the Soviet Union and other countries of
the bu.ropean Soviet Bloc} and Yugoslavia, had about 11 percent of the 'WOrld's
population and accounted for lOOre than 14 percent of the 'WOrld r s agricultural
production in 1958. The Soviet Union alone accounted for one-tenth of 'WOrld
output. The per-capita food supply generally exceeded the nutritional stand­
ards, though diets of considerable segments of the population in the area are
inadequate.
Analysis of East F:uropean agriculture is necessarily tentative. Offi­
cial data a:::.;.; o:rtp.n Ui:lT.',=liable or lacking. In this study J it was often
neceasary to make a~ju3tments or substitute judgments in the absence of firm
data.
Indications are, h')wever) that the trf';no. in agricultura.l production in
the J950 's was ,-w'warel and at a more rapid pace tha..'rJ. p.Jp'.;~ation growth. The
increase bas been slowed by collectivization and other Communist economic
:pol ides. It also bas been less rapid than plannE'>d.
~asteril Europe has a J.a~ge la.nd area with sOlls well suited for agroi­
('111tural "prod.u.ction, but climate has been a limiting factor in expanding out­
put. \-lith the except.ion of' :?oland and Yugoslavia, the once preoominant small
peasant farming has been largely collectivizeo or far advanced towa:r0. this
C':llInnunist goal. Since 1950, there has been a trend toward rrDre state farms
anr'l ams.lgama.tion of collective farms into larger units. Soviet farms! :pa.~i­
cu_lar1y, are gi~ntic: Tn 1960, the average collective farm included 6/785
smm acres 1 the average state farm 22,485 sown acres. Fa~ mecha.l1i zatj.on
and other capital inputs into East Eu.1:"O:pean agriculture are low compared to
the industria.l ized countries of the West; productivity of farm laoor also is
low. An estimAted 45 percent of the Soviet labJr force is enga~ed in farm
pro~uction, as compared to only 8 to 10 percent in the TJnite~ states.
In
recent yea!"s, however, more capital has been allocated to agricultural de­
velopment in thE'> East European economies.
Except in F..ast Germany and Czechoslovakia, diets in Fastern Europe have
long been dominated by starchy foods, mainly cereals and :rx>tatoes. Con­
sumption of da:Lry products} meat, f'ate, fruits, a..lld vegetables has been lov".
Food shortages' e frequent, partic1tlarly of meat, nairy prod'.lcts, and fat.
Faulty distrLJ. 'ion, poor harvests.~ intensified collectivi.zation drives, and
other politiccl diffi.cttlties contribute to such shortages. For example, the
poo"t' harvest jn Bast Germany in 1961 'WnS Bggt'avated by collectivization a'rJ.d
the fJ5ght of large numbers of :people to the West before t.he I~ast German
borde"!' was sealed. Nevertheless) growing urba.'lization and some increase in
purchasing power during the post-stalin era have rermlteo in a gradual
shifting in the diet from grains to animal protei.n and. other nongrain food.
Food graj.n consumption also has been shif'ttng from rye and corn to wheat.
64
Grain exports from the Soviet Union in recent years have increased su.b­
stantially Over prewar.. +-hough the bulk goes to F..ast Germany, Czechoslovakia,
and other F..a.st European cOUlltries which he.ve become deficit in gra.tn.
Eastern Europe a'3 a whole has become a net importer of fats a..'.d oils.
Popttlation :Increases of 13 percent for the Soviet Union an(j 11 percent
for the ent.ire reg:l.on are e~Q?ected between 1958 and 1966. Growing urbani­
zat:ton and increa.sed industr:talizat:lon v.lll €'ncourage greater con.sumption of
animal pl~ducts 'and other nongrain foods.
Taking the l'!.rea as a whole, combiJ1ed per capita consumpt:l.on of the three
principal food grains -- wheat, rye.. and corn -- probably will decrease about
5 :percent by 1966 as compared with 1958-59. Hhile per-capita consumption of'
whea.t will increase slightly, it will be DX>re than offset by decJ"E>ases :!.n
rye and corn. Declines in corn consumption will be significant in the
J)mubian cOW1tries} whereas the important decreases in rye consumption w-:i 1J
be in the Soviet Union and the northern cOl.tntries.
Eastern Europe: Net position for wheat, 1958, and
proieded 1962 and 1966
NET IMPORTS
NET SURPLUS
Soviet
Union
1m
1
Other
Eo~tern
Europe
1966
Total
Eastern Europe 5
o
5
10
15
MILLION METRIC TONS
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
NEG. ERS 356-11 (8)
Figure 10
ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE
Table 20.--Wheat, dry beans and peas, and vegetable oils: Requirements, production, and import need or
export availability, Eastern Europe, 1958 and projected 1962 and 1966
I
--::stimated :
! Estimated
: Produc- I con sump-
1962
1958
Commodity
and
country]J
consump:
tion
tion
Ii
tion
:
1966
:Import need
:Import need Estimated :
Produc- : or export
consump- : Produc- : or export :
: tion
: avail­ tion
: availtion
: abilitv (-)
lability (-)
:
:
-l,UUL metr~c tons------­
:
:
- - - - -- - -- - - -- - - I'lheat
Bulgaria
Czechoslovakia
Germany, East
Hungary
Poland
Rumania
Soviet Union
Yugoslavia
:;',062
1,967
i,541
1,986
2,300
1,283
1,487
1,703
3,666
2,322
3,089
2,914
48,720 Y62,800
2,450
3,459
Total
I
-- --- - -- --
2,155
2,515
2,320
1,950
3,550
3,245
49,085
4,007
2,065
1,515
1,300
1,850
2,360
3,500
54,400
3,707
90
1,000
1,020
100
1,190
- 255
-'5,315
300
2,230
2,570
2,325
2,000
3,650
3,460
51,640
4,200
2,230
1,570
1,400
2,000
2,450
3,660
56,620
4,100
0
1,000
925
0
1,200
- 200
- 4,980
100
66,985
76,764
68,827
70,697
- 1,870
72,075
74,030
- 1,955
Dry beans and peas
Bulgaria
Czechoslovakia
Germany, East
Hungary
Poland
Rumania
Soviet Union
Yugoslavia
47
31
70
50
66
104
1,115
175
59
29
57
60
66
130
1,100
125
56
20
25
64
120
115
2,400
192
88
20
25
67
120
145
2,400
212
- 32
0
96
20
20
74
125
145
3,500
222
- 35
- 3
0
- 30
0
- 20
61
20
20
67
130
120
3,500
200
Total
1.658
1,626
2,992
3,077
- 85
4,118
4,202
- 84
59
140
242
19
99
100
1,695
67
60
60
65
26
29
70
1,590
29
62
155
245
24
125
69
70
70
35
III
1,790
93
120
1,540
53
- 7
85
175
-11
80
- 9
250
40
67
165
250
30
155
120
1,950
114
75
75
75
35
60
120
1,750
70
- 8
90
175
- 5
95
0
200
2,421
1,929
2,605
2,002
603
2,851
2,260
591
°
°
0
- 7
5
- 25
°
- 22
:
Vegetable oils
Bulgaria
Czechoslovakia
Germany, East
Hungary
Poland
Rumania
Soviet Union
Yugoslavia
Total
j
I
I
I
!
i
I
I
i
45
44
I
11
y
Does not include nonfat dry milk because data are unavailable; production insignificant.
1958 was a record crop year for the Soviet Union.
,
- 66
­
Present and planned emphMi.8 on J ivestock production lndicates that per­ capita meat consu.mption ma.;-r be expeC'ted t.o increase in 1966 by a.bou.t one­ sixl:;h throughout Fastern ~.lmpe. The per-capita consuJJlption of' fats and oils also is expected to increase) ref'lp.cting mainly an increase :f.n vegetable oil ~onsum:pt10n 0:1' about 15 !1ercent. Pro.iected increa:::es in production and consumption are lmlch more moderate than the offj.ciaJ. goals. The Soviet Union is seeking a 70 percent increase in production :from 1958 (8, record crop year) to 1965. A 70 to 80 percent 1.!lCrease is plan.'Y\ed by Rtunanj.d. between 1959-1965. Historical experience, climate.• and institutional li."llit-ations make such expansion unlikely. The short gro1r.i.ng season and limitec1. moisture sUPJ)ly in much of' Eastern Europe, e$pf'cially in the Sovie·t Union, are serious obstacles to inIprovE'.ment :l'.n yields. ?d.St exp..<uls ion of T)roduction l"€ s ul ted primarily :from large ad.ditions to acrpagP.. Over 100 miLlion acres of' virgin land bave been brought under t~u1ti.vation with the aid of' tractors beyond the VoJ sa and. the Urals since 1953.. but much of it is margina.l :from the climatic standpoint. Such a large (:~;q;l8nsion is unlikely during the next 5 years.
In 196.2, the region as a whole is expected to continue to have lOOderate
snrplu.'3es in prodnction of' wheat, pulses, meat, eggs) and cheese over pro­
,jected consumption. Almost all of' the pro,jecten wheat surplus is in the
Soviet Union. Ilef'icits are expected :for other East European countries, ex­
CE'pt Rumania ,mich is expected to have a. small surplus. A small deficit in
feedgr>lins and rice and a aiza-ole deficit in vegetable oil also are indicated.
By .1966, the wheat surplus may i.ncrease slightly and the f'eedgrain deficit
Ina...V decrease.
T'ne projections a..c;sume average 'Weather conditions. Since weather
fluci;uates sharply from year:- to year in &1stern Europe, crop production may
vary considerably :from that assumed. Even small changes in yields per acre
could result in substantial changes from projected levels of: production and
consumption.
Use of' surpluses 1'01' export or stockpiling will depend upon the policies
o:f the Comnrunist governments which have a complete menoroly of foreign trade.
For climatic ann strat.egic reasons. considerable importance is attached by
Easi; Etu'Opean Gtlvernments to stockpiling. Distribution of' exports as between
Bloc countries and the Free 1-lor] d also will be determined by Government
ne~isions which take Int~ account politico-economic objectives as well as
connnerciru. considerations.
,I
I
APPENDIX
MEIrHOOOLOGY
Assumptions
The study rests u:pon the :following basic assumptions: 110 large-scale
war, but defense expenditures in the most inqx>rtant cOl.m.tries at current
ratios to national income. No major cyclical depression anywhere; near-fu..ll
employment in the industrial cOl.m.tries to be maintained, economic developnent
in l.m.derdeveloped cOl.m.tries to accelerate. No major inflation on a world
scale, but general price levels tending upward. Continued growth of real
per-capit~ income in most areas.
Population growths as estimated by ERS
based u:pon United Nations and other sources. Continuation of present
policies of agricultural protection in importing countries and agricultural
promotion in exporting countries. No substantial changes in price relation­
ships among products. Export supplies from the United states to be available
at competitive prices.
statistical Bases for the Calculations
statistical bases for the calculations of this study include the food
balance estimates recently prepared and published by the Foreign Agricultural
Service of the Department of Agriculture for some 80 Free World countries and
similar estimates published earlier or now under study and further refinement
for the countries of the Communist Bloc. Also included are Forei~1 Agri­
cultural Service estimates of world agricultural produ;:+ion by country for
the 1950's and earlier years.
The food balance estimates, some of them now slightly revised, summarize
in statistical form the food supply situation of a country or an area by
commodity or groups of commodities for the consumption year 1958. In accord­
ance with accepted procedures, they show domestic production, plus imports,
minus exports, plus or minus changes in stocks, and the total supply avail­
able for all uses. From this total supply by cODlllOdity or group of commod­
,iti~s are deducted seed, feed, and industrial uses; a further deduction is
made for wastage and processing from the stage of production to the retail
stage. This leaves a total supply available for human consUlllj:>tion, which is
then broken down on the basis of :population numbers into kilograms available
per year per capita, and into calories available per day per capita.
Incompleteness, unreliability, and lack of basic data are the major handicaps in compiling food balances. Many countries, for example, report only part of their food production, and few report stocks or utilization of supplies. TO present a reasonably complete picture of food supplies, it has often been necessary to fill in gaps with estimates based on fragmentary information from scattered sources. Consequently, consumption levels for individual foods and for all foods combined as indicated in the balances must be 'regarded as rough approximations. 68
. I
I
I
Nevertheless, t.hese consumption level estinl3.tes are believed to point
with a fair degree of accuxacy to the countries which h.q,ve nutritiona:!.
deficiencies, and to provide a reasonably good starting base for calculating
the order of maguitude of amendments needed in the world food budget to
brin.g it up to acceptable levels.
1lutritional Reference Standards
In addition to these statistical bases, this ~~rld food budget required
nutritional reference standards 1'01' countries and regions against Which
oonsumption could be measured to determine deficits.
Reference standards for calories are based on requirements as developed
by the Food and AgricultuTe Organization of the United Nations for 36
cOtmtries and published In the FAO Second World Survey, 1952. These require­
ments represent physiolOgical needs for normal activit7 and health taking
account of' en-.: .l-~c(;'.l1ents.l. te:m;pel"ature, body weights, and the distribution by
age and sex of ';';~K:!:ational populst;ions. Calorie requirememts by country
'were weighted to provide average reference standards by regions. The stand­
ards, given below, :reflect regional variations in climates, body Sizes, and
proportion of adults and children. As derived} hmrever, they are a.t best
only rough guides and obViously make no allowance for inequities in distri­
bution OT food among population gI~upe Within countries.
C01Ul'try err 8:~E:
Can.ada • ~ ..
Calories
2,710
latin i\merica •..••.......•.• 2,500 (based on 9 countries)
Medtterranean Europe ••.•.•.• 2, 430 (bas ed on ;rtaly and Greece)
Other Western Europe ...•..•. 2,635 (based on 8 countries)
Soviet Union "" ... ". ') . "..... ". 2,710
otheY Eastern Europe .....••. 2,635 (average for other Western Euxope)
West Asia ..... ,. .......
2,400 (requirement for Turkey)
Africa .. ,. ................ ,. .. . 2,375 (based on 6 countries)
Far East ....... ,. .....
2,300 (based on 5 countries)
Communist Asia ..•.......••.. 2,300 (average for Far East)
Australia ......... ,..,. ........ . 2,640
New Zealand ....•.••••....•.. 2,670
Un! ted States
2,640
1:1
•
"
•
"
•
•
•
"
"
•
•
..
tI
•
..
..
•
••••
•
•
,. •
II • • • • • • •
Each of these calorie level requirements includes a
above physiological needs, representing loss between the
consumption in the home. They can thus be compared witb
consumption as shown in the food balances 1 where account
taken of loss :from the stage of production to the retail
15-percent allowance
retail level and
the calculations of
already has been
stage.
Next to calories, protein in the diet is the most basic nutritional
need. Total protein is not .likely to be low in diets When calo-r-ic needs are
met. However, the source as well 8.3 '!;P0 total amount of protein is important.
If animal :foods supply part of the total, the protein quality of the diet is
enhanced. Protein:from pulses or legumes is also effective in supplementing
that in grains and is especially impol'+'ant where animal protein is low.
Reference stalldards were therefore provided for ani.mal. and pula e pl'Otein
as well as total protein, and the same standards were applied to all coun'~
tries of the world. They include all allowance of 60 grams of total protein.
retail level; a minimum allowance of 7 grams for animal protein; and enough
puJ.se protein to bring the total allimal and pulse protein to 17 grams.
The total protein reference standard is regarded as adequate and takes
account of the predominance of vegetable protein in the diet of marry coun­
t·des. The a.nimal protein referent:!e standard, on the other hand~ is ex.­
ceptionsJJ.y low and should not be regarded as a standard in the sense of
represen.ting anima.l protein adequacy of diets generally in the world. But
the protetn reference standards here applied do serve to sinp-).e out those
are&s where total protein availabilities, especially animal protein! ~re low,
and where therefore conditions are generaJJ.y unfavorable for the survival of
infants and children under 5 years and for the health of' pregnant and lac­
tating women. Animal protein levels exceed-tug 7 grams per person per day
would be desirable in these areas not o.nly for protein quality itself' but
becau"c;e foods which supply it -- rr1J.lk, cheese, eggs, meat, an('~ fish -- pro­
vide other essential nutrients in yThieh diets are likely to be low.
Reference standards for fat are expressen in terms of the amount that
would :or-ovide 15 rercent of' the reference stawdard calories, This level may
be considered a nutritional floor rather than a desi-r-a.l:le goal inasmuch as
"it j.B not yet possible to state definitely a reasonable aJlow.nce for fat
in the diet .. If accord.i.!lg to the National Research Council of: the National
Acane.lri.Y of 8dences.
Procedu.re
Production of' major t'ooCl.stl.l.ffs was :projected for each country to .1962
and 1966. L'1 general., trenc'lJ:; in output of indi.vid1.1al commodities du_ring th8
1950 r s serveo. as a basts for preli.winary n:::'Oje~tions, In some c0untries.,
howevp.r J abnorm9.1ities during this de(!ade ('iue to weather or other reasons
mail.e it necl7ssary to vj ew a longer "rIeriod. P.nd j n i1l..'l..r'W count.ries informa.tion
w,s avaiJ.ablp to f~'J.gp;ei3t ~tterns (loP develo:nment di.fferent !'rom those p"e­
vailtng :!.n the l'\.9.st c:1c<"!8.CiE'. Pr()0uction goals set forth }:.y foreign govern­
ments in their c}eveloP1l1ent. nlans 1verc take:1. ir+'0 aC(!~)1Jnt. Du.e C(lns i ~eration
;"'a.8 give,. t.o fl'l/B.i] a,bili ty of 13.rl1 and ',:'ater Tesources, -prohabl" .; nve,.:;"tments
~n Hgl'i'(·'o11;ur.c·, ,·"tate of agricu.ltu.:::-a.;!. ter.:h:nology and likely a.doption. of im­
proved nrar.tjceB -' and o·ther. factors beartns UPDn the proS::pe\~t8 for a(.!h.i.eviug
pro(ll1.ction goals. The importa.nee of ava.ila.bi.lity oi' fertilizers and in­
centives for their use was recogniz"!cl to be of rna.jor imrortance in determi­
ning futlxre lew~ls of output. 'J'hU6 ~ the produ(!tion pro.jections appearing in
this study reflect the \judgment 0f cOlmtry and cOllllOOdity specialists in
wei p)lting the relative i..mportanc€' of the lll£i.ny factors af:fecting i'tltll.re out·put.
Requir.€'Jllents were -Pl"O,l ected for both food and non:food uses, f'or thE'
tmder.c1evelopecl ('otm:tries, th~ assumption was made that patterns of con­
6'illJption 'Wou] d ~hengp hut ~31owly withl.n the short period under consideration.
~cp.ptJons WE'rE' me./l.~ in instan<:>eE: where J"er-capi ta conswnption of certain
I,
commodities in 1958 ;.ra.<o felt to be abnoma..lly high or loW'. r.";xceptions ,.r~-r~
a.lso loo.de to prov:LQe :for a continuai'lCe of' shifts 1.rhen di.et.ary changes
appeared to be alreal:\v in 'process. '·nle:r~Vf'r :oossible 1 account was takE'"n of
exper.!ted changes in income J.eVf~J.s and the :r.n.'Obahle e:ffncts of. such changP 8
on pattel"Ils of consulllptio!';l.. Tllf'orrnation nN;eesary for making thesE' all(\W'­
ances was, Qf course, most rea.dily a\"<tilable for the industrJ.alized COlln­
trj.es. l"or the remF..I.::i.nder of the 'WOrld .• much less precision vT8.S :nossil:>le in
pro.jecting COnS1Ui!1:rtion levels.
In diet-de.fici t aotmtries.. reql.,drernents of 1-rheat.• beans and 'Pea.";;. non­
fat dry milk.~ and vegetable oil w·r", aCl..justed upward by aYltt,)l.Ult.S ca,lcu1.e,teo
as necessary to satisfy nutritional dpficits in 'Protein. fat, and/or
caJ.ories. Hhpre :p'r'acticable: theR~ adrli tione.l requiremf."nt8 'Were translat.pij
:f.n nan into other commodities tl1fl.t COll.ld me~t the nutr::' tional de£'icl.ts.
In the underdeveloped cOlmtries nonfood us~s, f'onsist.ing matnly of seed
and waste~ were projected on the basis of p.:-1.6t trel1ils. L'1 t.he :i.nd.llst'r'ia.1.
cO'l.U1tries, J:ll'O.jectioll of nonfood 1l..ses was based on expecte(t uti.Jization for
livestock feed and trends i~ seed use.
71 Table 21.--Wor1d population by countries, 1958 and projections for 1962 and 1966 !I
Country
,
Numbers
1958 : 19152 : 1966
: Millions : Millions : Millions
:
LATIN AMERICA Argentina
Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominican Republic
Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Haiti Honduras Mexico Nicaragua. Panama. Paraguay Peru Uruguay Venezuela other Total
CANADA
UNITED STATES
WESTERN EUROPE
g/
Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany, West Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal
Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom
Other Total
EUROPE g/
Bulgaria Czechoslovakia Germany, East Hungary Poland Rumania Soviet Union Yugoslavia Total
See footnoteE at end of table.
Change
125S:b2 : 1228-66
Percent
Percent
20.2
3.4
62.7
7.3
13.5
1.1
6.5
2.8
4.0
2.4
3.6
3.4
1.8
32.3
1.4
1.0
1.7
10.2
2.7
6.3
4.8
193:r
21.8
3.6
70.1
8.0
15.0
1.2
7.1
3.2
4.5
2.8
4.0
3.7
2.1
36.6
1.6
1.1
1.8
11.3
2.9
7·2
5.2
'2IlDr
23.6
3·9
79.0
8.7
16.7
1.4
7.8
4.5
5.0
3.1
4.5
4.0
2.3
40.9
1.8
1.2
1.9
12·3
3.1
8.1
5.6
239.4
7.9
6.5
11.8
9.0
11.1
15.7
8.3
13.2
11.4
14.0
13.2
7.0
13.1
13.3
13.8
11.6
7.7
10.8
7.4
13.3
7.1
lr.r
16.8
15·1
26.0
18.6
23·7
31.5
18.8
24.3
22.7
27.6
27.9
15.8
26.8
26.6
28.3
24.6
14.2
20.6
14.0
27.8
15.3
23.3
17.0
18.5
20.0
8.8
17.6
174.2
186.4
199.3
7.0
14.4
7.0
9.1
4.6
4.4
44.8
54.7
8.6
2.8
48.9
11.3
3.5
8.3
28.9
7.4
5.3
51.8
2.4
7.2
9.3
4.7
4.5
46.2
56.8
8.9
2.8
50.0
11.8
3.6
8.5
29.8
7.3
9·5
4.8
4.7
47.2
58.9
9.2
2.8
51.0
12.4
3·7
8.8
30.8
1.6
5.8
53.5
2.5
1.7
2.2
2.6
3.2
3.0
3.8
3.6
-1.1
2.3
4.9
3.1
2.5
3.2
1.3
5·1
1.6
3.0
3.3
4.4
5.3
6.8
5.2
7.7
7.3
-1.8
4.3
9.8
5.7
5.7
6.6
2.6
9.5­
3-3
6.4
303."ff"
7·5
5·5
52.7
2.4
312.2
3'2'0.'5
~
5:5
8.4
14.3
4.0
3.3
-1.7
3.2
5.0
4.4
6.6
2.7
7.8
6.3
-3.6
6.2
11.0
9.3
13.2
7.6
""TI:O"
EASTERN
7.8
13.5
17.3
9.9
29.0
18.2
208.8
18.3
~
- 72 ­
8.1
14.0
17.0
10.2
30.9
19.0
222.6
18.8
340,0
i5~7
10.5
32.3
19.9
236.4
19.7
358"':2
""""5.5
Table 21.--World population by countries, 1958 and projections for 1962 and 1966 -- Continued
Country
AFRICA :/
Algeria
Angola
Belgian Congo and Ruanda-Urundi
Cameroun
Egypt
Ethiopia
French Equatorial Africa
French West Africa, excluding Guinea
Ghana
Guinea
Kenya
Liberia
Libya
Morocco
Nigeria and British Cameroons
Rhodesia and N~saland, Federation of
Sudan Tanganyika Togo Tunisia Union of South Africa other Total
WEST ASIA Iran Iraq Israel Jordan Lebanon Syria Turkey other Total
Numbers
1958 : 19b2 : 1266
: Millions : Mi11ions : Millions
:
10.6
4.5
18.3
3.2
24.8
19.0
5.0
17.2
4.8
2.6
6.!~
11.5
4.7
19.6
3·5
27.4
20.6 5·2
18.1
5.1 2.7 6.1 1.4
1.3 11.3
39.1
8.6
12.4
9.5
1.2
4.3
15.9
28.4
1.3
1.2
10.4
36.6
7.8
10.9
8.9
1.1
4.0
14.4
26.5
239·5
19.7
6.6
2.0
1.6
1.6
4.6
26.2
12.9
75·2
12.6
4.9
21.0
3.7
30.3
22.6 5.5
19.1
5.1~ 2.9 7.1 1.4
1.4 12.4
41.5
9.5
14.0
10.0
1.3
4.7
17.4
30.1
Change 1925:b2 : 122S: bi5
Percent
Percent
8.5
4.4
7.1
9.4
10.5
8.4
4.0
18.9
8.9
14.8
15.6
22.2
18.9
10.0
11.0
12.5
11.6
10.9
5.2
6.2
3.8
4.7
7.7
8.3
8.7
6.8
10.3
:1.3.8
6.7
9.1
7.5
10.4
7.2
"."7
16.7
19.2
13.4
21.8 28.4 12.4
18.2
17.5
20.8
13.6 251r.5
~
---r:r:9
J:b.4 21.7
7.3
2.2
1.8
1.7
5.1
29.2
13.6
24.0
8.0
2.4
2.0
1.8
5.8
32.6
14.3
90.9
10.2
10.6
21.8
21.2
20.0 25.0 12·5
26.1 24.4 10.8 20.9 """"B2:b
lO.O
12·5
6.2
10.9
1l.4
5.4
9:F
FAR EAST
Burma
Ceylon India Indonesia Japan Korea, South Malaya Pakistan Philippines Taiwn Thailand other Total
COMMUNIST ASIA
21.3
9.4
415.9
87.3
91.7
22.8
6.5
88.6
25.4
10.5
24.2
51.1
'851i:"7
23.2
25.5 10.4 1l.4 452.2
494.2
94.6
102.5
94.8
97.2
25.0 27.8 7.4
8.3
96.1
104.4
28.9
32.9
11.9
13.4
27.0
30.1
55.2
59.~
926.7 1,007.
675.0
725.0
786.0
8.9 10.3
8.7
8.4
3.4
9.6
12.7
8.5
13.8
13.3
11.6
8.0
--g:q:­
19.7
21.5
18.8
17.4
6.0
21.9
27.6
17.8
29.5
27.6
24.4
17.2
17.9
7.4
16.4
.I
OCEANIA.?/
Australia New z"aland 10.0 10.8
11.6
8.0 2·3
2·5
2.7
6.0 othe:.o
3.0
3.3
3.6
10.0
Total
15.3
J:b.b
17.9
tr.5
World Total
2 870.6 3 081.9 3 318.6
7.4
1 EconomiC/ResearCh Service estimates based upon United Nations ~d other sources.
of year. ~ Names and frontiers as they generSlly existed in 195 •
- 73
­
­
!
Table 22.--Food consumption 1eve:l.s per person per day, in tenus 01' calorie, protein, and 1'at
content, by country, 1958
--Animal
Protein
other
Pulse
Total
Fat
Number
Grams
Grams
Grams
Grams
Grams
3,360
1,880
2,815
2,6].0
2,225
2,555
1
4
l4
6
3
8
9
5
7
13
9
13
8
10
5
6
7
6
1
9
37
32
30
38
28
28
3l
20
28
32
37
25
41
41
27
32
28
33
50
lOO
50
64
7l
5l
59
68
37
45
57
55
42
58
12l
1,950
1,935
1,975
2,175
1,875
2,190
2,725
1,985
2,370
2,335
2,040
2,945
2,255
62
l4
20
27
20
23
28
12
10
12
9
4
9
18
18
19
35
13
59
18
CANADA
3,080
62
UNITED STATES
3,220
Country
;Calories;
LATm AMERICA
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
CUba
Dan1nican Republic
Ecuador
E1 Salvador
Guatemala
Haiti
Honduras
1f.exico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
WESTERN EUROPE
Austria
Be~ium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany, West
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdan
2~870
28
56
6l
43
6l
69
69
29
50
57
70
52
110
56
45
32
38
38
22
33
59
38
51
60
34
u8
48
2
30
94
l38
66
5
26
97
149
3,010
2,890
3,255
3,110
3,015
2,935
2,600
3,375
2,755
2,895
3,180
2,485
2,565
2,935
3,040
3,200
41
42
55
46
48
42
22
46
27
43
43
20
23
50
50
56
1
1
1
1
2
1
6
1
5
1
1
5
7
1
1
2
33
33
32
37
37
31
47
42
46
28
33
40
42
26
3l
27
75
76
88
84
87
74
75
89
78
72
77
65
72
77
82
85
2,780
3,010
2,950
2,925
3,100
2,79 0
2,985
2,770
20
26
35
26
35
18
26
24
6
1
1
3
l
3
3
5
63
41
36
42
43
51
63
59
89
68
72
7l
79
72
92
88
109
112
l39
115
108
124
73
112
73
119 13l
72
79
124
110
128
EASTERN EUROPE
~aria
Czechoslovakia
Germany, East
Hungary
Poland
RumBnia
Soviet Union
Yugoslavia
- 74 -
61
95
112
85
97
57
70 60 Table 22.--Food consumption levels per person per day, in terms o~ calorie, proteinJ' and :fat
content, by COWltry, 1958 -- Continued
Country
~~
AFRICA ~/
Algeria
Angola
Belgian Congo and Ruanda-Urundi
Cameroun
2,23 0
2,215
2,65 0
2,470
Egypt
2,340
Ethiopia
2,295
Frencb, Equatorial Africa
2,575
French West Africa, excluding Guinea 2,450
Ghana
2,~
Guinea
2,400
Kenya
2,240
Liberia
2,540
Libya
2,180
Morocco
2,480
Nigeria and British Cameroons
2,680
Rhodesia and Nyasaland,Federation of 2,500
Sudan
2,295
Tanganyika
2,175
Togo
2,645
Tunisia
2,170
Union of South Africa
2,620
WEST ASIA
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Lebanon
Syria
Turkey
Animal.
Protein
Pulse
Other
'lb'taJ..
Grams
Grams
Grams
Grams
Grams
15
8
7
5
7
16
7
5
9
4
13
3
8
17
6
12
16
9
4
15
24
5
17
15
7
12
18
10
8
5
10
6
3
7
1
39
31
28
13
9
14
10
4
3
39
51
42
39
46
37
33
45
36
41
54
45
51
41
41
34
48
47
59
56
49
51
70
76
56
59
51
47
64
42
56
72
60
76
66
64
48
67
74
52
60
37
55
38
30
49
46
51
26
65
27
73
4
7
3
10
3
4
6
45
52
46
45
55
50
66
62
74
79
63
72
65
84
30
38
76
37
46
40
45
7
4
15
10
34
34
36
34
42
39
35
36
37
36
29
51
46
57
60
51
54
56
60
45
26
59
34
38
23
19
40
20
39
37
35
:
: Calories:
2,040
2,255
2,715
2,085
2,415
2,255
2,650
13
15
30
8
14
II
12
9
~
Fat
41~
37
51
45
48
62
~
FAR EAST
Ceylon
India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea, South
Malaya'
Pakistan
PhilippineS
Taiwan
ThaUand
2,150
2,060
2,05 0
2,125
2,310
2,040
2,290
2,030
2,145
2,340
2,185
12
10
5
8
4
12
4
COMMUNIST ASIA
2,200
6
15
44
65
32
OCEANIA
3,210
67
5
31
103
136
Burma
Y
10
8
6
4
13
II
II
10
15
]2
Names and frontiers as they generally ex1sted in 1958.
-
75 ­
II
h8
66
:'7··~
Table 23.--Indices of world agricultural production:
Total and per capita, by region, average 1935-39 and annual 1958-59 to
~~~V
(Average 1952-53 to 1954-55
= 100)
Per capita production
Total production
Region
or
country
Average annual
:
2/:
3/
lA.verage:
:
2/:
3/ Average annual Average:
percent change
1935-39:1958-59:1959-60:1960-61percent.
change
1935-39:1958-59:1959-60- :1960-61~
:
:
:
:
:
• 1952-54
:
1935-39
1935-39:.1952-54
:
:
:
:
to
:
:
:
to
to
to
:
:
:
1960-61 : 1960-61
:
:
:
1960-61:1960-61
- - Percent - ­
- - Percent - -
Southern Area Latin America
Africa and West Asia
Far East, less Japan 4/
Communist Asia
Total
......
0\
72
77
121
117
123
118 124
121
3.1
2.5
3.h
3.0
103
100
107
106
106
105
104
105
89
96
11:1
120
119
115
119
117
1.5
1.0
2.7
2.4
lil
112
104
109
106
102
105
102
.04
0.2
-0.3
-0.4
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.3
-85
-118
-118
-120
-1.7
-2.9
-106
-106
-10$
-10h
--
-0.09
-0.6
81
108
no
112
130
115
1.8
132
131
.9
2.1
4.4
92
106
106
123 107
120
109
119
0.8
0.5
1.3
2.7
69
83
113
132
114
117
140
145
3.0
3.3
2.4
6.4
87
102
104
125
103
131
10h
134
0.9
1.3
0.6
4.9
76
120
121
124
2.7
3.4
, 100
107
106
-III
0.3
-1.6
­1.0
Northern Area
Western Europe
Eastern Europe ~/
United States and Canada
Japan
Australia and
New Zealand
Total
\-lorld total
-8u.
-85
-
118
-118
-119
-119
-122
-121
-1.9
-1.8
-3.1
-3.0
I -­
93
I
101
-III
-108
-
110
-107
107
-
107
-0.8
-0.3
1.0
1/ Value of production at constant prices. Revised. Crops included in the index are harvested mainly between July 1 of the
- first year shown and June of the folloH'ing year. For a few crops and most livestock production, estimates are for the
calendar year of the first year shawn.
3,,/ Preliminary.
3/ Estimated.
~/ Includes Pacific Islands.
Includes Soviet Union.
z/
Table 24.--Fertilizer:
Region
Total production and comparison with population and arable land, world by regions, 19)8
Populat~onY
Hill ions
Southern Area
Latin America
Africa and West Asia
Far East, less Japan~1
Communist Asia ~I
Total
-.J
-.J
Northern Area
\vestern Europe
Eastern Europe.§.I
United States and
Canada
Japan
Australia and New
Zealand
Total
Horld total
II
Arable land!!
:
Per
Tota1~/ :
capita
:
Hi1. ha.
Hectares
N
:
:
P 20 5 :
:
Fertilizer productio~1
:
:
:
Per : Percent
K20 : Total: Per
':h
:of world
:cap~ta : ectare:
:
total
- - - 1,000 metric tons - - -
!&.:.
!&.:.
Percent
1,250
1.9
1.4
0.3
0.4
0.6
3.7
1.5
0.8
2.2
1.6
1.4
1.6
0.8
0.9
4.7
193.1
314.7
766.0
675.0
1,948.8
102
290
257
112
761
0.5
0.9
0.3
0.2
0.4
249
75
140
180
644
303.8
322.8
97
277
0.3
0.9
191. 2
91. 7
229
6
12.3
921.8
-1§.
637
2,870.6
:
:
104
283
65
514
20
71
1
0
92
3,718
1,530
3,598
1,362
3,410
2,560
10,726
5,452
35.3
16.9
110.5
19.7
39.8
20.2
1.2
0.1
2,671
986
2,646
416
2,107
0
7,424
1,402
38.8
15.3
32.4
229.9
27.6
5.2
--.12
~
--­
2.2
0.7
-
8,934
8,668
__
0
8,077
675
25,679
54.9
27.9
24.5
40.3
-k2.
1,398
0.5
9,578
9,182
8,169
26,929
-21
373
429
206
-ill
-­
9.4
Economic Research Service estimates based upon United Nations and other sources.
Arable land and land under tree crops. This does not include permanent meadows ~~ pastures.
31 FAO Production Yearbook 1960, Volume 14. 41 Includes Pacific Islands.
From unpublished Economic Research Service estimates. £1 Includes Soviet Union.
II
11
-­
19.3
-95.3
100.0
Table 25'r-Selected commodities:
Rice
Estimated consumption, production, and import need or export availability, world by regions, 1958 and
projected to 1962 and 1966
1962 'ij
1966 !J./
1958 Y
nmpor-.:-ne-eu
: J.mpor;:: neeo
Commodity and region JJ
Estimated : Produc- Estimated : Produc- lor export Estimated ; Produc­ lor export
consump- : tion
consump- : tion
con~ump-:
tion
: avail­
: availtion
tion
t::.on
:
:abilitv (-)
:
:
:abilitv (-)
- - ~ - - - Million metric tons
-
-- - - --- - -- - - - -
---- - - - - -
~stern Hemisphere
Africa and I'lest Asia
Far East, Commun~st Asia, and Oceania
Vieste"n Europe
Eastern Europe
World total
Coarse grains
Vlestern Hemisphere
Africa and Vlest Asia
Far East, Communist Asia, and Oceania
I'lestern Europe
Eastern Europe
World total ~
Cotton §}
-oJ, ---W;Stern Hemisphere
Africa and West Asia
Far East, Communist Asia, and Oceania
Vlestern Europe
Eastern Europe
World total
Tobacco 1/
Vlestern Hemisphere
Africa and Vlest Asia
Far East, Communist Asia, and Oceania
I'lestern Europe
Eastern Europe
World total
5.6
3.7
132.2
1.1
1.0
6.1
3.5
136.6
.9
.3
6.4
4.5
144.0
1.2
.9
7.4
4.2
142.3
1.0
.2
- 1.0
.3
1.7
.2
.7
7.0
4.8
156.1
1.3
1.0
8.0
4.8
154.2
.3
- 1.0
0
1.9
.3
.7
143.6
147.4
157.0
155.1
1.9
170.2
168.3
1.9
146.1
37.6
94.4
59.2
85.4
169.1
40.4
93.2
46.3
86.2
155.3
40.8
101.4
66.9
91.4
161.7
43.7
95.0
51.2
91.4
- 6.4
- 2.9
6.4
15.7
0
168.8
44.7
111.0
73.7
97.2
177.6
48.3
101.2
56.2
97.5
- 8.8
- 3.6
9.8
17 .5
.3
422.7
435.2
455.8
443.0
12.8
495.4
480.8
14.6
12.0
1.6
18.4
7.4
8.5
19.6
5.9
13.2
.6
7.4
12.2
1.8
19.3
7.9
9.2
20.6
6.4
14.4
.7
7.3
- 8.4
- 4.6
4.9
7.2
1.9
13.7
2.0
20.7
8.4
10.1
23.6
7.2
15.3
.8
7.6
- 9.9
- 5.2
5.4
7.6
2.5
47.9
46.7
50.4
49.4
1.0
54.9
54.5
.4
2.1
.4
3.0
1.3
1.1
2.7
.8
3.4
.6
1.1
2.3
.4
3.3
1.4
1.1
3.1
.9
3.9
.5
1.1
-
.5
.4
.2
.9
.1
2.7
.5
3.7
1.5
1.2
3.5
1.0
4.4
.6
1.1
7.9
8.6
8.5
9.5
-
.1
9.6
10.6
-~-
.. - - - - -
1.e
-
--
.5
.4
.2
1.0
.2
.1
-----.-.-----.-------~~---
JJ Rice and coarse grains are shovm because of their major importance in many diets and their use as a wheat substitute even though
nutritional deficits were not expressed in terms of these commodities. Cotton and tobacco are included because of their importance in
world trade.
Cotton data for 1959-60 cotton year. Tobacco data for 1959 calendar year.
~ Cotton data for 1962-63 cotton year.
~ Cotton data for 1966-67 cotton year.
~ Projections include probable large drawdown of stocks in 1962 and 1966, principally in
the Western Hemisphere, and a large deficit in Communist Asia, much of which will probably not be filled by imports.
Data in 1,000
bales.
11 Data in million pounds. Consumption on dry unstemmed weight basis. Production on farm sales weight basis.
Y
21