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ESCAP High-level Policy Dialogue Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia International Economic Summit 2013 Eleventh Bank Indonesia Annual International Seminar “Macroeconomic Policies for Sustainable Growth with Equity in East Asia” 15-17 May 2013, Yogyakarta, Indonesia Jointly organized by UN ESCAP, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia and Bank Indonesia Roundtable Discussion – Rethinking Macroeconomic Policies for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth in East Asia Presentation Global Growth Engines including USA, European Union, Japan & China to 12 Asian Economies (1980 to 2020), Further Asian Connectivity and Inclusive Growth by Dr Tan Khee Giap Co‐Directors, Asia Competitiveness Institute, Associate Professor of Public Policy Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore & Chairman, Singapore National Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation (SINCPEC) May 2013 The views expressed in the paper are those of the author(s) and should not necessarily be considered as reflecting the views or carrying the endorsement of the United Nations. This paper has been issued without formal editing. Global Growth Engines including USA, European Union, Japan & China to 12 Asian Economies (1980 to 2020), Further Asian Connectivity and Inclusive Growth* Dr Tan Khee Giap Co‐Directors, Asia Competitiveness Institute Associate Professor of Public Policy Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore & Chairman, Singapore National Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation (SINCPEC) •Revised and prepared for presentation for ESCAP High‐level Policy Dialogue on “Macroeconomic Policies for Sustainable Growth with Equity in East Asia organised by ESCAP, Jogyakarta, 15‐17 May 2013. Also presented at the Asia Pacific Real Estate Convention & Expo 2013, 20‐22 March 2013, Marina Bay Sands, Singapore; also presented at the 27th Pacific economic Seminar “Regional Economic Integration Review AND Outlook” organized by Chinese Taipei Pacific Economic Foundation Cooperation Committee, 4‐5 October 2012, The Regent Hotel, Taipei, Taiwan; presented to China‐Europe Institute of Business Studies (CEIBS) delegation, 13 October 2012 at Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, National University of Singapore Outline of Presentation • The dynamic evolution of global growth engines including USA, EU, Japan, China to 11 selected Asian economies over past four decades, 1980-2010. • Regional competitiveness landscapes including 34 Greater China economies, 35 States of India and ASEAN-10, 2000-2010. • Differences in economic development approaches and characteristics amongst China, India and Singapore. • Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) versus Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as a pathway to Free Trade Agreement for Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) which is the most widely supported approach for greater economic integration • The Global economy in the decade ahead, 2010-2020: Dynamic shifts, challenges and opportunities Estimating Growth Engines • China now the largest export market for ASEAN-5 except Indonesia • US, European Union and Japan are now weaker engines of growth for ASEAN-5 • The importance of indirect growth multiplier • US impact on Australia (US is a minor trading partner) through its effect on Japan and China (which are major Australian trading partners) • Export shares and trade in intermediates products Growth Engines of ASEAN-5 • Traditional external engines of growth: US, EU, Japan. “When US sneezes the world catches cold” • New external engines: China, India??? • How to assess? Trade flows versus multiplier effects • China the largest export market, does it generate similar multiplier effects? Decoupling Literature • Number of studies on business cycle comovements at a global level (Kose and Prasad, 2010). • Basic tool: Dynamic factor model. Identify a latent factor to represent global cycles and examine how this correlates with individual country cycles. • Results are mixed, but less supportive of decoupling thesis. Focus of ACI-LKYSPP Studies • Our focus, not on business cycle synchronization, but on the evolution of Asia’s dependence of traditional and emerging growth engines and the dynamics of Asian integration. • Common practice: look into direct trade and investment linkages. This ignores indirect multiplier effects and underestimates the power of growth engines. Export shares and trade in intermediates products versus final demand ASEAN Co Japan mp on en ts China Components Final Demand (Components & (Components & final assembly) final assembly) US s ent pon Co m NIEs The Importance of Indirect Growth Multiplier Japan US Australia China Major Impact Minor Impact VAR Model of Estimation on the Engines of Growth The Four Engines of Growth Note: Figures in brackets for 2001‐2009 refer to: (i) under China: relative importance of China vs. Japan as an engine of growth; (ii) under US (EU): relative importance of US (EU) vs. China as an engine of growth. 10 The Four Engines of Growth Thailand Period China India Japan EU US 1980 ‐ 1989 0.185 0.035 0.437 0.803 1.270 1990 ‐ 1999 0.354 0.026 0.524 0.876 1.438 2001 ‐ 2009 0.659 0.044 (1.74) 0.377 0.700 1.035 (1.06) (1.57) Note: Figures in brackets for 2001‐2009 refer to: (i) under China: relative importance of China vs. Japan as an engine of growth; (ii) under US (EU): relative importance of US (EU) vs. China as an engine of growth. 11 The Four Engines of Growth Indonesia Period China India Japan EU US 1980 ‐ 1989 0.076 0.013 0.445 0.312 0.782 1990 ‐ 1999 0.183 0.015 0.322 0.415 0.661 2000 ‐ 2009 0.333 (1.37) 0.034 0.243 0.344 (1.03) 0.491 (1.47) Note: Figures in brackets for 2000‐2009 refer to: (i) under China: relative importance of China vs. Japan as an engine of growth; (ii) under US (EU): relative importance of US (EU) vs. China as an engine of growth. 12 The Four Engines of Growth Singapore Period China India Japan EU US 1980 ‐ 1989 0.165 0.049 0.442 0.650 1.377 1990 ‐ 1999 0.396 0.039 0.441 0.869 1.520 2000 ‐ 2009 0.748 0.063 0.297 0.703 1.006 (2.52) (1.34) (0.94) Note: Figures in brackets for 2000‐2009 refer to: (i) under China: relative importance of China vs. Japan as an engine of growth; (ii) under US (EU): relative importance of US (EU) vs. China as an engine of growth. 13 The Four Engines of Growth Philippines Period China India Japan EU US 1980 ‐ 1989 0.020 0.003 0.068 0.104 0.251 1990 ‐ 1999 0.043 0.004 0.068 0.121 0.256 2000 ‐ 2009 0.110 0.005 0.063 0.115 0.175 (1.75) (1.05) (1.59) Note: Figures in brackets for 2000‐2009 refer to: (i) under China: relative importance of China vs. Japan as an engine of growth; (ii) under US (EU): relative importance of US (EU) vs. China as an engine of growth. 14 Relative Importance of US vs China as an Engine of Growth for ASEAN-5 Period 1980‐89 1990‐99 2001‐09 2010‐19 Ratio 9.17 4.30 1.53 0.65* * Figure projected assuming a linear trend for the natural logarithm of the ratio. Relative Importance of EU vs China as an Engine of Growth for ASEAN-5 Period 1980‐89 1990‐99 2001‐09 2010‐19 Ratio 4.49 2.41 1.02 0.51* * Figure projected assuming a linear trend for the natural logarithm of the ratio. Relative Importance of China vs Japan as an Engine of Growth for ASEAN-5 Period 1980‐89 1990‐99 2001‐09 2010‐19 Ratio 0.31 0.71 1.88 4.52* * Figure projected assuming a linear trend for the natural logarithm of the ratio. Relative Importance of US vs China as an Engine of Growth (2001-2009) Country Ratio India Malaysia Philippines Thailand Japan Indonesia Singapore Australia Korea Taiwan Hong Kong 1.94 1.69 1.59 1.57 1.53 1.47 1.34 1.15 1.09 0.99 0.70 Relative Importance of EU vs China as an Engine of Growth (2001-2009) Country India Malaysia Philippines Thailand Japan Indonesia Singapore Australia Korea Taiwan Hong Kong Ratio 1.61 1.03 1.05 1.06 0.91 1.03 0.94 0.92 0.76 0.63 0 46 Relative Importance of China vs Japan as an Engine of Growth (2001-2009) Country Hong Kong Taiwan Korea India Singapore Malaysia Philippines Thailand Australia Indonesia Ratio 6.33 3.73 3.20 2.98 2.52 2.04 1.75 1.75 1.52 1.37 Relative Importance of (US plus Japan) vs China as Engine of Growth (2001-2009) Country India Malaysia Philippines Thailand Indonesia Singapore Australia Ratio 2.28 2.18 2.14 2.16 2.20 1.74 1.81 Korea Taiwan Hong Kong 1.40 1.26 0.86 Engines of Growth among ASEAN-5 (2001-09) Indo Mal Phil Spore Thai Indo ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Mal ‐ ‐ ‐ 0.34 ‐ (0.49) Phil ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Spore 0.25 0.31 ‐ ‐ ‐ (0.16) (0.43) Thai ‐ ‐ ‐ 0.22 ‐ (0.39) Note: figures in brackets refer to the period 1990‐99 Conclusions • China has rapidly become a major engine of growth for ASEAN-5 in the past decade • The US growth engine is still 1.53 times more important than that of China for ASEAN-5 • The EU growth engine is equally important as that of China for ASEAN-5 • The Chinese growth engine has become 1.88 times more important than that of Japan for ASEAN-5 Conclusions • US pus Japan is about twice as important as China as the growth engine for ASEAN-5, however, the continued economic integration of China to other Asian economies is unstoppable! • India has not yet become a growth engine for ASEAN-5 though it is of increasing importance to Singapore and Malaysia • Intra-ASEAN growth engines are confined to among Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. The growth engines have actually weakened over the past decade. Conclusions • The mutual growth dependence of Singapore and Malaysia has fallen over the past decade • Indonesia has become a more important growth engine for Singapore over the past decade • US participation in any Asian regional economic grouping is critical as it is still the most important engine of growth for all the Asian economies (except Taiwan and Hong Kong) Conclusions • Based on existing trends, for ASEAN to strategically balance the rising dependence on China, the key network linkages with the most future potential are: • (1) India-Indonesia-Singapore, Australia-India, Japan-IndonesiaSingapore. • (2) Attracting Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese and Hong Kong labour intensive industries relocating from China to ASEAN to produce for the US, EU, Japan, India and ASEAN markets. • (3) For greater Asian connectivity and integration, attracting massive infrastructure investment and financing from China and Japan to ASEAN in the area of transportation, telecommunication, power & utilities to ensure sustainable economic growth development bottlenecks in ASEAN Regional tension and political agenda involving USA, China, Japan and Korea have disrupted CJK-FTA • • • • Further momentum of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement (CJK-FTA) is unlikely in the near future and not too optimistic in the medium term either. Trans-Pacific Strategic economic Partnership Agreement (TPP) evolved from the original P-4 FTA initiated by Singapore in 2006 currently have more than 11 members committed or interested. However, TPP so far has been overshadowed by political agenda with renewed Japanese interests, given the “difficulties” of China and Indonesia which are unlikely join such a high quality FTA . Japan proposed Comprehensive Economic Partnership in East Asia (CEPEA) so as to play an active leadership role in East Asia which in fact is FTA of ASEAN 3+3 (i.e. India Australia and New Zealand) where all 16 members are members of the East Asian Summit; meanwhile China has taken keen initiative in discussion pertaining to East Asia Free Trade Agreement (EAFTA) where government officials are engaged in the discussions under the four working groups. We strongly urge USA to play an even more pro-active economic role in Asia where political role would emerge naturally later which would lead to greater stabilization of Asia. RCEP or TPP, which is a realistic path way FTAAP to better reflect balanced regional interests? • • • • The current American-driven high-quality Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have gained momentum from recent Japanese agreement to participate although two emerging giant Asian economies, namely China and Indonesia, continued to be not keen. Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) can be seen as a compromise when China and Japan jointly proposed in August 2011 ASEAN to set up three working groups in goods, trade in services and investments. Hence ASEAN proposed in November 2011 an ASEAN-Led RCEP was affirmed by leaders from East Asia Summit in April 2012. RCEP could be the most realistic pathway to Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) which would be the most widely supported approach since USA, China and Japan (and surely Chinese Taipei too !) are included. Other interested potential members such as India and other smaller economies would surely be welcome. As Indonesia recovers steadily since 2005 as a rising middle power after her economic set back in Asian financial crisis of 1997, the importance and leadership of Indonesia is noticed especially in view of the recent rising regional tensions over territory sovereignty amongst some members of ASEAN and China. Growth rates of China’s GDP, 1986-2011 29 21/05/2013 China’s GDP, 1978-2010 (at current prices, in USD millions) 1978 21/05/2013 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 30 USA, European Union, China, Japan & India, 2013-2020 • • • • • • The US economy appears to be emerging from its worst since the 2008 – 2009 American sub-prime driven-financial crisis through rounds of quantitative easing. The fiscal non-sustainability and weak competitiveness of Greece, Italy, Spain, Ireland and Portugal would continue to drag down the economic prospect of European Union. The Chinese economy would continue to grow steadily at 7.5% per annum for the current decade with external demand, domestic consumption, regional infrastructure development and rapid urbanization as drivers for growth. India would continue to be bogged down by inertia in economic reform programs and the weak coalition government. The current Japanese attempt to restore trade competitiveness through currency depreciation and regionalization of Reminbi would have significant implications to exchange rate alignment for major world currencies. Global quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserves Board, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and People’s Bank of China would lead to competitive exchange rate devaluation and volatile capital flows with serious negative implications for Asian economies with potential inflationary pressure. 21/05/2013 31 Greater Asian Connectivity: Sustainable and Inclusive Growth • • • • In the APEC process, there are basically three pillars including trade & investment, regional integration and eco-tech. While APEC economies have made good progress in terms of trade & investment, regional integration in terms of Asian connectivity needed to be further enhanced. However the third pillar, namely eco-tech which encompasses inclusive, sustainable and equitable growth, has been lacking in focus and serious attention while the first two pillars progress ahead with good performance by multinational corporations and reward for employers. In view of widening income disparity amongst developing and developed economies, productivity tracking and efficiency monitoring of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) must be serious look into, in particular the management performance of professional, managers, executives and technicians (PMETs) working in SMEs. Unlike Japan, as China is surely and steadily on the way to be the biggest economy in the world, further cooperation amongst SMES in Asia to gain greater access to the big, diverse and increasingly consumption driven Chinese markets would be paramount. Amongst the significant and effective way of ensuring fruits of economic growth to be inclusive and equitably shared, tracking on affordability indices in FOUR areas including education, housing, health and public transportation for public policies formulation and adjustments remained most critical. 21/05/2013 32 Framework for constructing Competitiveness Ranking (1) Macroeconomic Stability (2) Government & Institutional Setting (4) Quality Of Life & Infrastructure Development (3) Financial, Businesses & Manpower Conditions 1.1 Regional Economic Vibrancy 2.1 Government Policies and Fiscal Sustainability 3.1 Financial Deepening and Business Efficiency 1.2 Openness To Trade and Services 2.2 Institutions, Governance and Leadership 3.2 Labour Market Flexibility 4.2 1.3 Attractiveness To Foreign Investors 3.3 Productivity Performance Standard of Living, 4.3 Education and Social Stability 4.1 Physical Infrastructure Technological Infrastructure 1. Indicators for Macroeconomic Stability (26 Indicators) 1.1 Regional Economic Vibrancy 1.2 Openness To Trade and Services 1.3 Attractiveness To Foreign Investors 1.1.01 Gross Regional Product 1.2.01 Trade Balance (%) 1.1.02 GRP Growth 1.2.02 International Merchandise Exports 1.1.03 GRP Per Capita 1.2.03 International Merchandise Imports 1.3.01 Planned Foreign Direct Investment (Excl Regional Investment) 1.3.02 Realized Foreign Direct Investment (Excl. Regional Investment) 1.3.03 Foreign Funded Enterprises (%) 1.1.04 Primary Industry (%) 1.2.04 Openness To Trade 1.3.04 Total Taxes on Foreign Funded Companies 1.1.05 Secondary Industry (%) 1.2.05 International Visitor Arrivals 1.1.06 Tertiary Industry (%) 1.2.06 International Tourism Receipts 1.1.07 Gross Capital Formation (%) 1.1.08 Consumer Price Index 1.1.09 Retail Price Index 1.1.10 Net Regional Trade 1.1.11 Regional Tourist Arrivals 1.1.12 Regional Tourism Receipts 1.1.13 Planned Regional Investment 1.1.14 Realized Regional Investment 1.1.15 Industry Gross Output Value 1.1.16 Business Survey Index 2. Indicators for Government and Institutional Setting (13 Indicators) 2.1 Government Policies and Fiscal Sustainability 2.2 Institutions, Governance and Leadership 2.1.01 Government Revenue 2.2.01 Domestic Funded Enterprises 2.1.02 Tax Revenue 2.2.02 State-Owned Enterprises 2.1.03 Tax Revenue/Government Revenue 2.2.03 Collective-Owned Enterprises 2.1.04 Government Consumption Expenditure 2.2.04 Limited Liability Corporations 2.1.05 Budget Balance 2.2.05 Share Holding Corporations 2.2.06 Private Enterprises 2.2.07 Foreign Funded Enterprises 2.2.08 State-Owned Enterprises to Total Enterprises 3. Indicators for Financial, Businesses and Manpower Conditions (16 Indicators) 3.1 Financial Deepening and Business Efficiency 3.2 Labour Market Flexibility 3.3 Productivity Performance 3.1.01 Total Savings Deposits 3.2.01 Total Employed Persons 3.3.01 Overall Labour Productivity 3.1.02 Total Loans 3.2.02 Self-Employed Persons (Urban Area) 3.3.02 Primary Industry, Value Added per Worker 3.2.03 Unemployment Rate (Urban Area) 3.3.03 Secondary Industry, Value-Added per Worker 3.2.04 Secondary & Tertiary Staff Workers (%) 3.3.04 Tertiary Industry, Value-Added per Worker 3.2.05 Average Annual Wage of Staff and 3.3.05 Investment in Fixed Assets Workers 3.2.06 Total Wages Bill of Employed Persons in Urban Units 3.2.07 Wages Paid Out by State-Owned Units 3.2.08 Wages Paid Out by Urban Collective Units 3.2.09 Wages Paid Out by Other Units 4. Indicators for Quality Of Life and Infrastructure Development (51 Indicators) 4.1 Physical Infrastructure 4.2 Technological Infrastructure 4.3 Standard of Living, Education and Social Stability 4.1.01 Population 4.2.01 Persons per Fixed Telephone Subscriber 4.3.01 Illiteracy Rate 4.1.02 Urban Population 4.2.02 Persons per Internet Subscriber 4.3.02 Number of Educational Institutions 4.1.03 Rural Population 4.2.03 Personal Computer 4.3.03 Disparity between Primary & Secondary Institutions 4.1.04 Population Density 4.2.04 High Technology Expenditure 4.3.04 Tertiary Institutions 4.1.05 Length of Railways in Operation 4.2.05 High Technology Proficiency 4.3.05 Student-Teacher Ratio (Primary) 4.1.06 Length of Highways 4.2.06 Persons per Mobile Telephone Subscriber 4.3.06 Student-Teacher Ratio (Secondary) 4.1.07 Length of Navigable Inland Waterways 4.2.07 Urban Television Sets 4.3.07 Student-Teacher Ratio (Tertiary) 4.1.08 Length of Total Civil Aviation Routes 4.2.08 Rural Television Sets 4.3.08 Health Expenditure 4.1.09 Passenger Distance of Railways in Operation 4.2.09 Expenditure on Science and Technology 4.3.09 Urban Population Growth 4.1.10 Passenger Distance of Highways 4.2.10 Scientific and Technical Journals 4.3.10 Air Pollution 4.1.11 Passenger Distance of Navigable Inland Waterways 4.2.11 Patents Granted 4.3.11 Ageing Profile 4.1.12 Passenger Distance of Total Civil Aviation Routes 4.3.12 Old Age Dependency Ratio 4.1.13 Motor Vehicles per Person 4.3.13 Birth Rate 4.1.14 Coal 4.3.14 Death Rate 4.1.15 Oil 4.3.15 Adequacy of Hospitals 4.1.16 Electric Hydropower 4.3.16 Population per Hospital Bed 4.1.17 Crude Steel 4.3.17 Population per Medical Personnel 4.1.18 Pig Iron 4.3.18 Per Capita Annual Urban Household Income 4.1.19 Steel Products 4.1.20 Cement 4.1.21 Total Land Area 4.1.22 Cultivated Land Overall Competitiveness Ranking of 34 Greater China Economies, 2000-2010 TOTAL Rank 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TOTAL Rank 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TOTAL Rank 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1 Economy Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Score 1.4942 1.4539 1.3795 1.4942 1.3125 1.2732 1.1827 1.0637 0.9719 0.8664 0.8555 2 Economy Hong Kong Hong Kong Hong Kong Hong Kong Hong Kong Hong Kong Hong Kong Hong Kong Guangdong Guangdong Guangdong Score 1.1127 1.1833 1.1134 1.1127 1.0644 0.9137 0.9063 0.9221 0.8343 0.8525 0.8535 3 Economy Guangdong Guangdong Guangdong Guangdong Guangdong Guangdong Guangdong Guangdong Hong Kong Hong Kong Jiangsu Score 0.6370 0.6989 0.7650 0.6370 0.7916 0.7813 0.8221 0.8385 0.8215 0.7956 0.7714 4 Economy Shanghai Shanghai Shanghai Shanghai Jiangsu Jiangsu Jiangsu Jiangsu Jiangsu Jiangsu Hong Kong Score 0.2861 0.3286 0.3590 0.2861 0.4323 0.4995 0.5514 0.5988 0.6608 0.7136 0.7531 5 Economy Beijing Beijing Beijing Beijing Shanghai Shanghai Zhejiang Beijing Beijing Zhejiang Zhejiang Score 0.2667 0.3127 0.3400 0.2667 0.3638 0.4110 0.4268 0.4517 0.4631 0.4768 0.4699 6 Economy Jiangsu Jiangsu Jiangsu Jiangsu Zhejiang Zhejiang Beijing Zhejiang Zhejiang Beijing Beijing Score 0.2501 0.2606 0.3101 0.2501 0.3308 0.3541 0.3932 0.4326 0.4542 0.4753 0.4401 7 Economy Zhejiang Zhejiang Zhejiang Zhejiang Beijing Shandong Shandong Shanghai Shanghai Shanghai Shanghai Score 0.1620 0.2312 0.2648 0.1620 0.3255 0.3531 0.3843 0.4237 0.4516 0.3911 0.4228 8 Economy Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Beijing Shanghai Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Score 0.1414 0.1875 0.2361 0.1414 0.3200 0.3353 0.3793 0.3550 0.3766 0.3574 0.3543 9 Economy Macau Macau Liaoning Macau Macau Liaoning Liaoning Liaoning Liaoning Liaoning Liaoning Score 0.1202 0.1227 0.1176 0.1202 0.0806 0.0708 0.0735 0.1091 0.1519 0.1854 0.1992 10 Economy Liaoning Liaoning Fujian Liaoning Fujian Fujian Macau Macau Hebei Hebei Hebei Score 0.1075 0.1017 0.0911 0.1075 0.0615 0.0294 0.0462 0.0555 0.0467 0.0533 0.0432 11 Economy Fujian Fujian Macau Macau Liaoning Hebei Fujian Hebei Fujian Fujian Fujian Score 0.0821 0.0897 0.0857 0.0610 0.0472 0.0294 0.0369 0.0230 0.0037 0.0371 0.0294 12 Economy Hebei Hebei Hebei Hebei Hebei Macau Hebei Fujian Macau Tianjin Sichuan Score 0.0109 -0.0066 0.0128 0.0101 0.0098 0.0230 0.0239 0.0079 -0.0069 -0.0232 -0.0065 13 Economy Hubei Sichuan Sichuan Sichuan Sichuan Sichuan Henan Sichuan Hubei Macau Hubei Score -0.0319 -0.0373 -0.0233 -0.0122 -0.0314 -0.0597 -0.0530 -0.0452 -0.0452 -0.0234 -0.0093 14 Economy Sichuan Hubei Hubei Hubei Hubei Henan Hubei Hubei Tianjin Hubei Tianjin Score -0.0451 -0.0641 -0.0875 -0.0742 -0.0866 -0.0747 -0.0541 -0.0624 -0.0473 -0.0290 -0.0113 15 Economy Tianjin Tianjin Tianjin Heilongjiang Tianjin Hubei Sichuan Henan Sichuan Sichuan Macau Score -0.0502 -0.0814 -0.1107 -0.1164 -0.0976 -0.0882 -0.0628 -0.0756 -0.0575 -0.0390 -0.0441 16 Economy Heilongjiang Heilongjiang Heilongjiang Chongqing Henan Tianjin Tianjin Tianjin Henan Henan Henan Score -0.0856 -0.1244 -0.1110 -0.1217 -0.1197 -0.1019 -0.0748 -0.0918 -0.0809 -0.0528 -0.0805 17 Economy Henan Inner Mongolia Henan Tianjin Heilongjiang Chongqing Hunan Hunan Inner Mongolia Anhui Anhui Score -0.1194 -0.1423 -0.1467 -0.1323 -0.1395 -0.1339 -0.1457 -0.1487 -0.1477 -0.1258 -0.0992 18 Economy Inner Mongolia Jilin Chongqing Henan Hunan Hunan Inner Mongolia Inner Mongolia Chongqing Inner Mongolia Inner Mongolia Score -0.1306 -0.1525 -0.1475 -0.1570 -0.1490 -0.1455 -0.1689 -0.1599 -0.1505 -0.1377 -0.1459 Overall Competitiveness Ranking of 34 Greater China Economies, 2000-2010 TOTAL Rank 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 19 Economy Jilin Hunan Jilin Hunan Anhui Heilongjiang Heilongjiang Anhui Hunan Chongqing Chongqing Score -0.1407 -0.1608 -0.1501 -0.1690 -0.1544 -0.1485 -0.1726 -0.1762 -0.1530 -0.1509 -0.1518 20 Economy Shanxi Chongqing Hunan Anhui Chongqing Inner Mongolia Jiangxi Chongqing Heilongjiang Jilin Hunan Score -0.1656 -0.1783 -0.1609 -0.1816 -0.1546 -0.1579 -0.1789 -0.1766 -0.1620 -0.1549 -0.1563 21 Economy Anhui Henan Anhui Inner Mongolia Inner Mongolia Jiangxi Anhui Jilin Anhui Hunan Jilin Score -0.1689 -0.1882 -0.1805 -0.1838 -0.1645 -0.1775 -0.1791 -0.1771 -0.1647 -0.1655 -0.1743 22 Economy Chongqing Shanxi Shanxi Xinjiang Xinjiang Anhui Jilin Xinjiang Jilin Heilongjiang Shaanxi Score -0.1773 -0.1913 -0.1837 -0.1849 -0.1934 -0.1792 -0.1811 -0.1838 -0.1753 -0.1745 -0.1811 23 Economy Hunan Anhui Inner Mongolia Jilin Jilin Jilin Chongqing Heilongjiang Xinjiang Shaanxi Heilongjiang Score -0.1841 -0.1947 -0.1950 -0.1979 -0.2114 -0.1810 -0.1970 -0.1898 -0.2007 -0.1980 -0.1913 24 Economy Xinjiang Hainan Xinjiang Shanxi Jiangxi Xinjiang Guangxi Jiangxi Jiangxi Jiangxi Shanxi Score -0.1856 -0.2251 -0.2047 -0.2199 -0.2189 -0.2163 -0.2265 -0.1901 -0.2077 -0.2043 -0.2027 25 Economy Guangxi Xinjiang Ningxia Jiangxi Guangxi Guangxi Xinjiang Guangxi Guangxi Guangxi Jiangxi Score -0.2132 -0.2309 -0.2286 -0.2355 -0.2435 -0.2394 -0.2283 -0.2130 -0.2160 -0.2059 -0.2054 26 Economy Hainan Guangxi Guangxi Ningxia Ningxia Shaanxi Shaanxi Shaanxi Shanxi Shanxi Xinjiang Score -0.2161 -0.2360 -0.2392 -0.2464 -0.2558 -0.2467 -0.2488 -0.2509 -0.2414 -0.2312 -0.2227 27 Economy Yunnan Ningxia Hainan Guangxi Shanxi Ningxia Shanxi Shanxi Shaanxi Xinjiang Guangxi Score -0.2180 -0.2381 -0.2480 -0.2625 -0.2596 -0.2655 -0.2582 -0.2587 -0.2428 -0.2411 -0.2356 28 Economy Ningxia Yunnan Yunnan Shaanxi Shaanxi Yunnan Yunnan Ningxia Yunnan Yunnan Yunnan Score -0.2221 -0.2386 -0.2647 -0.2737 -0.2833 -0.2737 -0.2855 -0.2966 -0.3062 -0.3156 -0.3293 29 Economy Shaanxi Shaanxi Jiangxi Yunnan Yunnan Shanxi Ningxia Yunnan Ningxia Ningxia Ningxia Score -0.2244 -0.2688 -0.2679 -0.2818 -0.2959 -0.2852 -0.3029 -0.3120 -0.3618 -0.3787 -0.3706 30 Economy Jiangxi Jiangxi Shaanxi Hainan Hainan Qinghai Qinghai Hainan Hainan Hainan Hainan Score -0.3097 -0.2818 -0.2801 -0.3086 -0.2961 -0.3199 -0.3539 -0.3619 -0.4052 -0.3870 -0.3898 31 Economy Qinghai Qinghai Qinghai Qinghai Qinghai Hainan Hainan Qinghai Qinghai Gansu Gansu Score -0.3586 -0.3300 -0.3478 -0.3359 -0.3349 -0.3730 -0.3877 -0.3934 -0.4092 -0.4356 -0.4458 32 Economy Gansu Gansu Guizhou Guizhou Guizhou Gansu Guizhou Guizhou Gansu Guizhou Qinghai Score -0.3902 -0.3877 -0.4314 -0.4459 -0.4673 -0.4192 -0.4530 -0.4672 -0.4214 -0.4525 -0.4575 33 Economy Guizhou Guizhou Gansu Gansu Gansu Guizhou Gansu Gansu Guizhou Qinghai Guizhou Score -0.4226 -0.4208 -0.4600 -0.4623 -0.4707 -0.4421 -0.4590 -0.4802 -0.4472 -0.4546 -0.4585 34 Economy Tibet Tibet Tibet Tibet Tibet Tibet Tibet Tibet Tibet Tibet Tibet Score -0.6109 -0.5911 -0.6058 -0.5498 -0.5118 -0.5448 -0.5549 -0.5708 -0.5856 -0.6234 -0.6228 TOTAL Rank 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TOTAL Rank 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Overall Competitiveness Ranking of 35 States and Federal Territories of India, 2000-2010 TOTAL Rank 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TOTAL Rank 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1 Economy Maharashtra Maharashtra Maharashtra Maharashtra Maharashtra Maharashtra Maharashtra Maharashtra Maharashtra Maharashtra Maharashtra Score 1.098245 1.13581 1.093355 1.098245 1.197973 1.239308 1.187489 1.250754 1.150723 1.174888 1.232075 2 Economy Tamil Nadu Delhi # Delhi # Tamil Nadu Delhi # Delhi # Delhi # Delhi # Delhi # Delhi # Delhi # Score 0.640821 0.691053 0.57142 0.640821 0.494827 0.512666 0.488915 0.464661 0.471413 0.497664 0.444077 3 Economy Delhi # Tamil Nadu Tamil Nadu Delhi # Tamil Nadu Tamil Nadu Tamil Nadu Tamil Nadu Tamil Nadu Tamil Nadu Tamil Nadu Score 0.618374 0.481231 0.489779 0.618374 0.45917 0.426796 0.418075 0.429929 0.376032 0.391829 0.36754 4 Economy Lakshadweep # Lakshadweep # Lakshadweep # Lakshadweep # Karnataka Karnataka Karnataka Karnataka Karnataka Karnataka Lakshadweep # Score 0.375167 0.387643 0.378609 0.375167 0.415928 0.382369 0.396654 0.382121 0.346045 0.350084 0.345353 5 Economy Uttar Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Karnataka Uttar Pradesh Gujarat Lakshadweep # Lakshadweep # Lakshadweep # Lakshadweep # Uttar Pradesh Karnataka Score 0.340205 0.35295 0.356376 0.340205 0.399783 0.347421 0.384123 0.344002 0.338577 0.336564 0.339292 6 Economy Sikkim Sikkim Uttar Pradesh Sikkim Lakshadweep # Gujarat Uttar Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Lakshadweep # Gujarat Score 0.275462 0.322713 0.333013 0.275462 0.333871 0.32243 0.309431 0.295684 0.281556 0.325895 0.317991 7 Economy Andhra Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Gujarat Gujarat Uttar Pradesh Gujarat Uttar Pradesh Score 0.252288 0.300379 0.329932 0.252288 0.322763 0.29783 0.303031 0.281901 0.275488 0.280855 0.268128 8 Economy Gujarat Gujarat Sikkim Gujarat Uttar Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Score 0.224269 0.283423 0.326165 0.224269 0.290749 0.264769 0.264159 0.270557 0.26568 0.234622 0.265209 9 Economy Karnataka Karnataka Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Sikkim Sikkim Sikkim Sikkim Sikkim Sikkim Sikkim Score 0.20717 0.250783 0.274869 0.20717 0.290255 0.21638 0.226392 0.203786 0.23224 0.206479 0.158365 10 Economy West Bengal West Bengal West Bengal West Bengal West Bengal West Bengal West Bengal Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Score 0.193719 0.156147 0.139608 0.193719 0.108573 0.123528 0.105952 0.112822 0.103518 0.11327 0.129438 Overall Competitiveness Ranking of 35 States and Federal Territories of India, 2000-2010 TOTAL Rank 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 21 Economy Nagaland Haryana Himachal Pradesh Pondicherry # Pondicherry # Dadra & Nagar Haveli # Jammu & Kashmir Punjab Pondicherry # Haryana Kerala Score ‐0.12852 ‐0.13449 ‐0.13242 ‐0.10082 ‐0.13275 ‐0.10379 ‐0.12609 ‐0.1288 ‐0.12582 ‐0.12806 ‐0.13524 22 Economy Dadra & Nagar Haveli # Dadra & Nagar Haveli # Daman & Diu # Arunachal Pradesh Daman & Diu # Punjab Haryana Himachal Pradesh Daman & Diu # Himachal Pradesh Punjab Score ‐0.23473 ‐0.22688 ‐0.20401 ‐0.22182 ‐0.22481 ‐0.22257 ‐0.16793 ‐0.19775 ‐0.16994 ‐0.19247 ‐0.19356 Economy Meghalaya Andaman & Nicobar Islands # Nagaland Manipur Himachal Pradesh Manipur Andaman & Nicobar Islands # Uttaranchal Andaman & Nicobar Islands # Orissa Andaman & Nicobar Islands # Score ‐0.14886 ‐0.15539 ‐0.14011 ‐0.10168 ‐0.13675 ‐0.1175 ‐0.1424 ‐0.1296 ‐0.13563 ‐0.13649 ‐0.1379 23 Economy Jammu & Kashmir Arunachal Pradesh Dadra & Nagar Haveli # Jammu & Kashmir Arunachal Pradesh Haryana Himachal Pradesh Kerala Uttaranchal Kerala Haryana Score ‐0.24744 ‐0.23306 ‐0.22942 ‐0.22809 ‐0.22616 ‐0.23272 ‐0.17621 ‐0.21593 ‐0.17289 ‐0.20456 ‐0.20062 Economy Orissa Manipur Uttaranchal Uttaranchal Uttaranchal Nagaland Nagaland Nagaland Nagaland Nagaland Uttaranchal Score ‐0.15515 ‐0.15614 ‐0.16543 ‐0.17995 ‐0.15412 ‐0.12098 ‐0.14345 ‐0.13375 ‐0.14459 ‐0.14121 ‐0.1504 24 Economy Haryana Orissa Orissa Orissa Manipur Himachal Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Haryana Punjab Manipur Orissa 25 Score Economy Score ‐0.18673 Tripura ‐0.21627 ‐0.18567 Himachal Pradesh ‐0.22393 ‐0.17504 Arunachal Pradesh ‐0.18619 ‐0.20163 Himachal Pradesh ‐0.21583 ‐0.20698 Andaman & Nicobar Islands # ‐0.22302 ‐0.15471 Uttaranchal ‐0.19907 ‐0.15141 Uttaranchal ‐0.15922 ‐0.13705 Orissa ‐0.14264 ‐0.15227 Orissa ‐0.15873 ‐0.17151 Punjab ‐0.17857 ‐0.15451 Manipur ‐0.17986 TOTAL Rank 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 26 Economy Himachal Pradesh Nagaland Andaman & Nicobar Islands # Andaman & Nicobar Islands # Orissa Orissa Orissa Andaman & Nicobar Islands # Haryana Andaman & Nicobar Islands # Daman & Diu # 27 28 29 30 Score Economy Score ‐0.26691 Andaman & Nicobar Islands # ‐0.27584 ‐0.27552 Tripura ‐0.28328 ‐0.25923 Manipur ‐0.27967 ‐0.23749 Nagaland ‐0.2457 ‐0.26274 Nagaland ‐0.26621 ‐0.23811 Andaman & Nicobar Islands # ‐0.24019 ‐0.18385 Manipur ‐0.25098 ‐0.22666 Manipur ‐0.26919 ‐0.1985 Manipur ‐0.22655 ‐0.21908 Uttaranchal ‐0.23216 ‐0.23086 Bihar ‐0.23312 Economy Bihar Meghalaya Meghalaya Meghalaya Meghalaya Meghalaya Meghalaya Meghalaya Meghalaya Meghalaya Nagaland Score ‐0.2898 ‐0.29191 ‐0.28269 ‐0.29115 ‐0.28355 ‐0.28717 ‐0.2723 ‐0.27602 ‐0.25575 ‐0.27468 ‐0.23854 Overall Competitiveness Ranking of 35 States and Federal Territories of India, 2000-2010 TOTAL Rank 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 31 Economy Manipur Uttaranchal Tripura Assam Assam Assam Assam Assam Bihar Bihar Assam Score ‐0.31752 ‐0.29698 ‐0.31118 ‐0.32841 ‐0.28713 ‐0.33469 ‐0.31556 ‐0.30441 ‐0.30023 ‐0.2905 ‐0.25685 32 Economy Uttaranchal Assam Assam Chattisgarh Jharkhand Bihar Chattisgarh Bihar Assam Assam Meghalaya Score ‐0.31959 ‐0.34883 ‐0.31707 ‐0.3714 ‐0.3479 ‐0.36079 ‐0.32333 ‐0.3328 ‐0.33631 ‐0.29815 ‐0.2797 33 Economy Assam Chattisgarh Bihar Bihar Bihar Chattisgarh Bihar Chattisgarh Chattisgarh Chattisgarh Chattisgarh Score ‐0.34989 ‐0.3819 ‐0.31803 ‐0.39834 ‐0.3486 ‐0.37493 ‐0.34353 ‐0.33637 ‐0.34875 ‐0.37658 ‐0.33267 34 Economy Jharkhand Bihar Chattisgarh Tripura Chattisgarh Jharkhand Tripura Jharkhand Jharkhand Tripura Jharkhand Score ‐0.41507 ‐0.38613 ‐0.40031 ‐0.40325 ‐0.36411 ‐0.38276 ‐0.42228 ‐0.37067 ‐0.35041 ‐0.38639 ‐0.40756 35 Economy Chattisgarh Jharkhand Jharkhand Jharkhand Tripura Tripura Jharkhand Tripura Tripura Jharkhand Tripura Score ‐0.45956 ‐0.44426 ‐0.42795 ‐0.43749 ‐0.41352 ‐0.38906 ‐0.49841 ‐0.42255 ‐0.41183 ‐0.41068 ‐0.41814 ASEAN-10 Economies Indicators List (29 July 2012) - 2000 to 2010 1 1.1 1.1.01 1.1.02 1.1.03 1.1.04 1.1.05 1.1.06 1.1.07 1.1.08 1.1.09 1.1.10 1.1.11 1.1.12 1.2 1.2.01 1.2.02 1.2.03 1.2.04 1.2.05 1.3 1.3.01 1.3.02 1.3.03 1.3.04 1.3.05 1.3.06 1.3.07 MACROECONOMIC STABILITY Economic Vibrancy Gross Domestic Production GDP Growth GDP Per Capita Output Agriculture (Value Added) Output Industry (Value Added) Output Manufacturing (Value Added) Output Services (Value Added) Gross Domestic Savings Gross Fixed Capital Formation Consumer Price Index Inflation Money Supply Growth (M2) Openness To Trade and Services Current Account Balance Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services Openness To Trade International Tourism Receipts Attractiveness To Foreign Investors Foreign Direct Investment Inflows Foreign Owned Companies Total Taxes on Foreign Owned Companies Discrimination Against Investors Levelness of Playing Field Transparency of Processes for Investors Nationalism as an Impediment 2 2.1 GOVERNMENT AND INSTITUTIONAL SETTING Government Policies and Fiscal Sustainability 2.1.01 2.1.02 2.1.03 2.1.04 2.1.05 2.1.06 2.1.07 2.1.08 2.1.09 2.1.10 2.1.11 2.1.12 2.1.13 2.1.14 2.1.15 2.2 2.2.01 2.2.02 2.2.03 2.2.04 2.2.05 2.2.06 2.2.07 2.2.08 2.2.09 2.2.10 2.2.11 2.2.12 2.2.13 2.2.14 2.2.15 Government Revenue Tax Revenue Tax Revenue/Government Revenue Government Consumption Expenditure External Debt International Reserves Foreign Assets International Monetary Fund Credit Budget Balance Tax Burden Money Supply (M2) Deposit Interest Rate Lending Rate Interest Rate Spread Official Exchange Rate Institutions, Governance and Leadership Quality of Government Policies Government Effectiveness Government Environmental Protection Policies Quality of Central Bank/Monetary Authority Government Stability Government Responsiveness Quality of Political Leadership Political System Risk Legislature/Parliament (Functioning of Government System) Conduct of State Affairs by Key Institutions Institutional Sophistication Bureaucracy/Red Tape Corruption Cronyism State-Owned Enterprises 2.3 2.3.01 2.3.02 2.3.03 2.3.04 2.3.05 2.3.06 2.3.07 2.3.08 2.3.09 2.3.10 2.3.11 2.3.12 2.3.13 2.3.14 2.3.15 Competition, Regulatory Standards and Rule of Laws Corporate Governance Quality of Regulatory Environment Transparency of Government Monopolies and Cartel Public-Private Sector Competition Ease of Starting Business Barriers to Trade Intellectual Property Rights Protection Regional Competitiveness Quality of Judiciary Effectiveness of Legal System Integrity of Legal System Quality of Police Political Change Social Stability 3 FINANCIAL, BUSINESSES AND MANPOWER CONDITIONS 3.1 Financial Deepening and Business Efficiency 3.1i Banking Efficiency 3.1.01 Claims on Private Sector 3.1.02 Domestic Credit to Private Sector 3.1.03 Quality of Banking and Financial System 3.1.04 Domestic Credit Provided by Banking Sector 3.1ii Stock Market Efficiency 3.1.05 Listed Domestic Companies 3.1.06 Market Capitalisation 3.1.07 Total Value of Stocks Traded 3.1.08 Sovereign Rating 3.1.09 Quality of Stock Market Regulatory Authority 3.2 Labor Market Flexibility 3.2.01 Labour Force 3.2.02 Unemployment Rate 3.2.03 Cost of Production Labour 3.2.04 High Quality Production Staff 3.2.05 Cost of Management Staff 3.2.06 High Quality Management Staff 3.2.07 Skill Level 3.2.08 Work Ethics 3.2.09 Labour Turnover 3.3 Productivity Performance 3.3.01 Agriculture, Value Added Per Worker 3.3.02 Industry, Value-Added Per Worker 3.3.03 Manufacturing, Value-Added Per Worker 3.3.04 Services, Value-Added Per Worker QUALITY OF LIFE AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT 4 4.1 Physical Infrastructure 4.1.01Population 4.1.02Local Road System 4.1.03Rail Facilities 4.1.04Airport Facilities 4.1.05Port Facilities 4.1.06Public Transport System 4.1.07Electric Power 4.1.08Water and Other Utilities 4.2 Technological Infrastructure 4.2.01Telecommunications System 4.2.02Telephone Main Lines 4.2.03Internet Subscribers 4.2.04Cellular Mobile Telephone Subscribers 4.2.05Internet and Services Supporting IT 4.2.06Personal Computers Information and Communication Technology (ICT) 4.2.07 Expenditure 4.2.08High Technology Proficiency 4.3 Standard of Living, Education and Social Stability 4.3.01Literacy Rate 4.3.02Primary Schooling 4.3.03Secondary Schooling 4.3.04University and Post‐Graduate Education 4.3.05Human Development Index 4.3.06Health Expenditure 4.3.07Urban Population 4.3.08Urban Population Growth 4.3.09Public Security and Safety 4.3.10Freedom of Press 4.3.11Freedom of Speech 4.3.12Information Flows 4.3.13Freedom of Religion 4.3.14Religious Unrest 4.3.15Labour Unrest 4.3.16Racial Unrest 4.3.17Labour Activism 4.3.18Water Quality 4.3.19Air Quality 4.3.20Noise Pollution 4.3.21Traffic Congestion Overall Competitiveness Ranking of ASEAN-10, 2000-2010 TOTAL Rank 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TOTAL Rank 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1 Economy Singapore Singapore Singapore Singapore Singapore Singapore Singapore Singapore Singapore Singapore Singapore Score 1.4672 1.4498 1.4135 1.3501 1.4022 1.4242 1.3837 1.3996 1.3887 1.4518 1.4463 2 Economy Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Score 0.5160 0.5316 0.6048 0.5889 0.6305 0.6353 0.6625 0.6450 0.6174 0.5322 0.5766 3 Economy Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Score 0.2955 0.3002 0.3236 0.3299 0.3007 0.3078 0.2756 0.2423 0.2330 0.2247 0.2210 4 Economy Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Score 0.2254 0.2651 0.2356 0.2620 0.2420 0.2670 0.2567 0.2074 0.1933 0.2077 0.2039 5 Economy Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Indonesia Philippines Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Score -0.0811 -0.1238 -0.1733 -0.1996 -0.1723 -0.1917 -0.1647 -0.1082 -0.1068 -0.0857 -0.0657 6 Economy Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Philippines Philippines Philippines Vietnam Vietnam Score -0.2847 -0.2653 -0.2155 -0.2242 -0.2161 -0.2167 -0.1822 -0.1811 -0.1900 -0.1866 -0.1878 7 Economy Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Philippines Philippines Score -0.2945 -0.2726 -0.3018 -0.2808 -0.2718 -0.2762 -0.2739 -0.2548 -0.2074 -0.2432 -0.2574 8 Economy Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Score -0.4205 -0.4272 -0.4363 -0.4382 -0.4918 -0.5098 -0.5331 -0.5243 -0.5387 -0.5203 -0.5151 9 Economy Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Score -0.7111 -0.6723 -0.6590 -0.6693 -0.6582 -0.6682 -0.6436 -0.6387 -0.6314 -0.6154 -0.6295 10 Economy Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Score -0.7121 -0.7856 -0.7918 -0.7189 -0.7653 -0.7716 -0.7810 -0.7873 -0.7581 -0.7653 -0.7923 Macroeconomic Stability Ranking, 2000-2010 MACROECONOMIC STABILITY 1 Rank Economy 2000 Singapore 2001 Singapore 2002 Singapore 2003 Singapore 2004 Singapore 2005 Singapore 2006 Singapore 2007 Singapore 2008 Singapore 2009 Singapore 2010 Singapore Score 1.5599 1.4976 1.4192 1.4240 1.4970 1.5559 1.4779 1.4575 1.3234 1.5067 1.5447 2 Economy Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Score 0.5190 0.4891 0.5790 0.5244 0.6201 0.6221 0.5924 0.5919 0.5446 0.4129 0.4814 3 Economy Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Score 0.3588 0.3885 0.4109 0.3939 0.3736 0.3836 0.3824 0.3549 0.3809 0.3658 0.3429 4 Economy Indonesia Brunei Brunei Brunei Indonesia Brunei Brunei Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Score -0.1372 -0.0398 -0.0551 -0.0421 -0.0010 0.0131 0.0590 0.0773 0.1279 0.0893 0.0668 5 Economy Brunei Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Brunei Indonesia Indonesia Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Score -0.1811 -0.1213 -0.1220 -0.1537 -0.1019 -0.0881 -0.0451 -0.0510 -0.0581 -0.0852 0.0243 MACROECONOMIC STABILITY 6 Rank Economy 2000 Cambodia 2001 Vietnam 2002 Vietnam 2003 Vietnam 2004 Vietnam 2005 Cambodia 2006 Vietnam 2007 Philippines 2008 Vietnam 2009 Vietnam 2010 Vietnam Score -0.2359 -0.2041 -0.1656 -0.2281 -0.3173 -0.3175 -0.3300 -0.3073 -0.2032 -0.1723 -0.2077 7 Economy Philippines Cambodia Philippines Cambodia Philippines Vietnam Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Cambodia Philippines Score -0.2464 -0.2461 -0.2900 -0.2697 -0.3303 -0.3677 -0.3570 -0.3098 -0.3793 -0.4504 -0.4283 8 Economy Vietnam Philippines Cambodia Philippines Cambodia Philippines Cambodia Cambodia Philippines Philippines Cambodia Score -0.2482 -0.2838 -0.2979 -0.3311 -0.3364 -0.4122 -0.3705 -0.4248 -0.3821 -0.4598 -0.4709 9 Economy Myanmar Laos Laos Myanmar Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Score -0.6496 -0.6428 -0.6437 -0.6508 -0.6700 -0.6669 -0.6391 -0.6203 -0.6322 -0.5605 -0.6677 10 Economy Laos Myanmar Myanmar Laos Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Score -0.7394 -0.8373 -0.8347 -0.6667 -0.7339 -0.7223 -0.7699 -0.7685 -0.7218 -0.6465 -0.6855 Government and Institutional Setting Ranking, 2000-2010 GOVERNMENT AND INSTITUTIONAL SETTING 1 Rank Economy Score 2000 Singapore 1.6287 2001 Singapore 1.6542 2002 Singapore 1.5226 2003 Singapore 1.5044 2004 Singapore 1.4614 2005 Singapore 1.4468 2006 Singapore 1.4556 2007 Singapore 1.5036 2008 Singapore 1.6060 2009 Singapore 1.6057 2010 Singapore 1.6183 2 Economy Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Score 0.5221 0.5543 0.6612 0.6646 0.7101 0.7533 0.7257 0.6925 0.6040 0.4761 0.5324 3 Economy Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Score 0.4551 0.4524 0.5045 0.5390 0.4588 0.4814 0.4680 0.4282 0.3924 0.4725 0.3965 4 Economy Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Score 0.3959 0.3819 0.3627 0.3896 0.4587 0.4808 0.3344 0.2409 0.1975 0.1701 0.1635 5 Economy Philippines Philippines Philippines Vietnam Philippines Philippines Philippines Indonesia Philippines Indonesia Indonesia Score -0.0204 -0.0718 -0.1303 -0.1716 -0.2289 -0.1731 -0.1660 -0.1853 -0.2009 -0.1222 -0.0784 GOVERNMENT AND INSTITUTIONAL SETTING 6 Rank Economy Score 2000 Vietnam -0.2637 2001 Vietnam -0.2610 2002 Vietnam -0.2106 2003 Philippines -0.2108 2004 Vietnam -0.2799 2005 Vietnam -0.2918 2006 Indonesia -0.2432 2007 Philippines -0.1893 2008 Indonesia -0.2119 2009 Philippines -0.2831 2010 Philippines -0.2924 7 Economy Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Indonesia Indonesia Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Score -0.4327 -0.4687 -0.4137 -0.3983 -0.3500 -0.3671 -0.3241 -0.3192 -0.3214 -0.2960 -0.3205 8 Economy Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Score -0.6183 -0.6085 -0.6225 -0.5271 -0.4730 -0.5673 -0.5246 -0.4620 -0.4681 -0.4453 -0.4254 9 Economy Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Score -0.8141 -0.7743 -0.7942 -0.8666 -0.8152 -0.8258 -0.7946 -0.7743 -0.7090 -0.6952 -0.6712 10 Economy Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Score -0.8526 -0.8584 -0.8798 -0.9233 -0.9421 -0.9372 -0.9313 -0.9350 -0.8887 -0.8826 -0.9227 Financial, Businesses and Manpower Conditions Ranking, 2000-2010 FINANCIAL, BUSINESSES AND MANPOWER CONDITIONS 1 2 Rank Economy Score Economy 2000 Singapore 1.2168 Malaysia 2001 Singapore 1.2317 Malaysia 2002 Singapore 1.3047 Malaysia 2003 Singapore 1.1351 Malaysia 2004 Singapore 1.3215 Malaysia 2005 Singapore 1.3431 Malaysia 2006 Singapore 1.2774 Malaysia 2007 Singapore 1.2633 Malaysia 2008 Singapore 1.2631 Malaysia 2009 Singapore 1.3299 Malaysia 2010 Singapore 1.2535 Malaysia Score 0.4277 0.4858 0.5372 0.5111 0.5326 0.4744 0.6156 0.6595 0.6948 0.6298 0.7064 3 Economy Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Score 0.3154 0.3209 0.2830 0.3303 0.2733 0.2337 0.1971 0.1853 0.2030 0.2164 0.2365 4 Economy Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Score 0.1618 0.1487 0.1082 0.1939 0.1886 0.1809 0.1829 0.1351 0.0851 0.1070 0.0932 5 Economy Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Indonesia Philippines Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Score -0.0093 -0.0782 -0.0998 -0.1180 -0.1432 -0.0650 -0.1277 -0.0939 -0.1231 -0.0913 -0.0913 FINANCIAL, BUSINESSES AND MANPOWER CONDITIONS 6 7 Rank Economy Score Economy 2000 Indonesia -0.0915 Vietnam 2001 Indonesia -0.1019 Vietnam 2002 Indonesia -0.1189 Vietnam 2003 Indonesia -0.1621 Vietnam 2004 Philippines -0.2097 Vietnam 2005 Indonesia -0.1990 Vietnam 2006 Philippines -0.1324 Vietnam 2007 Philippines -0.1445 Vietnam 2008 Philippines -0.1306 Vietnam 2009 Philippines -0.1826 Vietnam 2010 Philippines -0.1992 Vietnam Score -0.3454 -0.3067 -0.2776 -0.2759 -0.2793 -0.2399 -0.2489 -0.2553 -0.1828 -0.2320 -0.2276 8 Economy Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Score -0.5001 -0.5426 -0.5435 -0.3983 -0.4562 -0.4866 -0.4697 -0.4539 -0.4530 -0.5008 -0.5204 9 Economy Laos Cambodia Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Score -0.5840 -0.5744 -0.5528 -0.5512 -0.5461 -0.5869 -0.5568 -0.5761 -0.6081 -0.6197 -0.5903 10 Economy Cambodia Laos Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Score -0.5913 -0.5832 -0.6405 -0.6651 -0.6814 -0.6546 -0.7375 -0.7196 -0.7482 -0.6566 -0.6607 Quality Of Life and Infrastructure Development Ranking, 2000-2010 QUALITY OF LIFE AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT 1 2 Rank Economy Score Economy 2000 Singapore 1.4633 Malaysia 2001 Singapore 1.4156 Malaysia 2002 Singapore 1.4076 Malaysia 2003 Singapore 1.3370 Malaysia 2004 Singapore 1.3291 Malaysia 2005 Singapore 1.3511 Malaysia 2006 Singapore 1.3240 Malaysia 2007 Singapore 1.3740 Malaysia 2008 Singapore 1.3624 Malaysia 2009 Singapore 1.3650 Malaysia 2010 Singapore 1.3686 Malaysia Score 0.5952 0.5974 0.6419 0.6556 0.6593 0.6912 0.7164 0.6362 0.6260 0.6100 0.5865 3 Economy Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Brunei Score 0.3714 0.3973 0.3520 0.3702 0.3379 0.3398 0.3027 0.3172 0.3538 0.3367 0.3015 4 Economy Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Score 0.2063 0.2113 0.2708 0.1928 0.1821 0.1859 0.2025 0.1884 0.1506 0.1467 0.1413 5 Economy Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Vietnam Vietnam Score -0.0484 -0.0613 -0.1730 -0.1384 -0.0954 -0.1165 -0.0734 -0.0836 -0.0462 -0.0460 0.0047 QUALITY OF LIFE AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT 6 7 Rank Economy Score Economy 2000 Vietnam -0.2817 Indonesia 2001 Indonesia -0.2586 Vietnam 2002 Vietnam -0.2082 Indonesia 2003 Vietnam -0.2211 Indonesia 2004 Indonesia -0.1952 Vietnam 2005 Vietnam -0.2056 Indonesia 2006 Vietnam -0.1926 Indonesia 2007 Vietnam -0.1348 Indonesia 2008 Vietnam -0.1220 Indonesia 2009 Philippines -0.0472 Indonesia 2010 Philippines -0.1096 Indonesia Score -0.3311 -0.2893 -0.3436 -0.2805 -0.2106 -0.2126 -0.2429 -0.2308 -0.2200 -0.2187 -0.1598 8 Economy Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Score -0.4222 -0.4194 -0.3932 -0.4196 -0.4764 -0.4998 -0.4997 -0.4907 -0.5591 -0.5291 -0.5036 9 Economy Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Laos Score -0.7068 -0.6891 -0.6451 -0.5927 -0.6017 -0.5932 -0.5840 -0.5840 -0.5763 -0.5863 -0.5888 10 Economy Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Score -0.8459 -0.9039 -0.9090 -0.9034 -0.9292 -0.9403 -0.9531 -0.9917 -0.9691 -1.0312 -1.0407 Overall Ranking for 79 Asian Economies, Year 2010 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Economy Macau Taiwan Hong Kong Guangdong Singapore Jiangsu Shanghai Indonesia Beijing Shandong Zhejiang Tianjin Liaoning Maharashtra Inner Mongolia Malaysia Henan Thailand Hebei Sichuan Delhi Fujian Xinjiang Hunan Heilongjiang Hubei Jilin Anhui Shaanxi Shanxi Guangxi Jiangxi Chongqing Vietnam Yunnan Brunei Philippines Lakshadweep Karnataka Hainan Score 1.7181 1.3985 1.0655 0.8045 0.7705 0.6636 0.5166 0.4955 0.4412 0.4386 0.4161 0.3208 0.3182 0.3175 0.3067 0.2511 0.2253 0.1675 0.1634 0.1556 0.1546 0.1499 0.1258 0.1076 0.0974 0.0843 0.0667 0.0640 0.0622 0.0497 0.0493 0.0239 0.0179 0.0163 -0.0050 -0.0151 -0.0154 -0.0298 -0.0502 -0.0745 Rank 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 Economy Gansu Tamil Nadu Guizhou Uttar Pradesh Ningxia Chandigarh Sikkim Qinghai Arunachal Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Mizoram Dadra & Nagar Haveli Madhya Pradesh West Bengal Gujarat Daman & Diu Pondicherry Uttaranchal Tibet Rajasthan Jammu & Kashmir Goa Himachal Pradesh Nagaland Bihar Laos Meghalaya Kerala Haryana Andaman & Nicobar Islands Manipur Punjab Chattisgarh Orissa Assam Tripura Jharkhand Cambodia Myanmar Score -0.0977 -0.1031 -0.1047 -0.1283 -0.1390 -0.1423 -0.1671 -0.1738 -0.1882 -0.1891 -0.1962 -0.2151 -0.2203 -0.2332 -0.2353 -0.2390 -0.2695 -0.2942 -0.2952 -0.3035 -0.3121 -0.3148 -0.3471 -0.3543 -0.3635 -0.3665 -0.3905 -0.3918 -0.3939 -0.3986 -0.4016 -0.4422 -0.4492 -0.4626 -0.4659 -0.4667 -0.4693 -0.4700 -0.6389 Relative Competitiveness Index Between Top 10 Mainland Chinese Provinces & Indian States (CI-RC Index) China (1994) India (1994) (B/A) A B Overall CI‐RCI: (74%) 5.1455 3.8065 Economic Vibrancy: (93%) 4.8809 4.5492 Government & Institutions: (76%) 6.7360 5.1421 Businesses & Labor Flexibility: (69%) 6.5277 4.4975 Physical & Social Infrastructure: (67%) 4.5372 3.0724 Relative Competitiveness Index Between Top 10 Mainland Chinese Provinces & Indian States (CI-RC Index) China (1999) India (1999) (B/A) A B Overall CI‐RCI: (49%) 6.4126 3.1236 Economic Vibrancy: (49%) 6.7803 3.339 Government & Institutions: (69%) 8.6861 5.9548 Businesses & Labor Flexibility: (50%) 6.9167 3.4664 Physical & Social Infrastructure: (39%) 6.4604 2.508 Relative Competitiveness Index Between Top 10 Mainland Chinese Provinces & Indian States (CI-RC Index) China (2004) India (2004) (B/A) A B Overall CI‐RCI: (25%) 6.6994 1.6771 Economic Vibrancy: (48%) 7.9141 3.76 Government & Institutions: (53%) 8.9705 4.73 Businesses & Labor Flexibility: (48%) 6.1343 2.9166 Physical & Social Infrastructure: (9%) 4.8213 0.4449 Relative Competitiveness Index Between Top 10 Mainland Chinese Provinces & Indian States (CI-RC Index) China (2009) India (2009) (B/A) A B Overall CI‐RCI: (23%) 6.2413 1.4619 Economic Vibrancy: (12%) 10.3120 1.2608 Government & Institutions: (36%) 5.1525 1.8488 Businesses & Labor Flexibility: (39%) 6.7228 2.599 Physical & Social Infrastructure: (5%) 2.7784 0.1391 Summary Findings on Relative Competitiveness Index Amongst Top 10 Mainland China Provinces & Indian States (a) When comparing competitiveness of top 10 economies of China and India in 1994 • CI-RC Index suggested that India was only 73% of China’ overall competitiveness, where both were nearly in par on economic environment (93%), but China was ahead in Government & Institutions (76%), business (69%) and social (67%) environment. (b) When comparing competitiveness of top 10 economies of China and India in 1999 • CI-RC Index revealed that India was left further behind with only 49% of China’s overall competitiveness and losing ground in all 4 environments including economic (49%), Government & Institutions (69%), Businesses (50%) and social (39%). (c) When comparing competitiveness of top 10 economies of China and India in 2004 • CI-RC Index showed how India was left with a fraction amounting to 25% of China’s overall competitiveness, with further deterioration in all 4 environments including economics (48%), Government & Institutions (53%), Businesses (48%) and Social (9%). (d) When comparing competitiveness of top 10 economies of China and India in 2009 • CI-RC Index showed how India was left with a fraction amounting to 23% of China’s overall competitiveness, with further deterioration in all 4 environments including economics (12%), Government & Institutions (36%), Businesses (39%) and Social (5%). Relative Competitiveness Index Between Top 10 Mainland Chinese Provinces & Indian States (CI-RC Index) China (1994) India (2009) (B/A) A B Overall CI‐RCI: (145%) 3.1039 4.4979 Economic Vibrancy: (110%) 3.8753 4.2652 Government & Institutions: (308%) 1.7989 5.5385 Businesses & Labor Flexibility: (211%) 2.9882 6.3111 Physical & Social Infrastructure: (50%) 3.7533 1.8768 Relative Competitiveness Index Amongst Top 10 Mainland Chinese Provinces & Indian States (CI-RC Index) China (1999) India (2009) (B/A) A B Overall CI‐RCI: (116%) 3.3125 3.8405 Economic Vibrancy: (83%) 5.2326 4.3475 Government & Institutions: (153%) 3.3801 5.1719 Businesses & Labor Flexibility: (157%) 3.4686 5.4483 Physical & Social Infrastructure: (34%) 1.1687 0.3941 Relative Competitiveness Index Between Top 10 Mainland Chinese Provinces & Indian States (CI-RC Index) China (2004) India (2009) (B/A) A B Overall CI‐RCI: (43%) 5.2058 2.2457 Economic Vibrancy: (25%) 8.6742 2.189 Government & Institutions: (101%) 3.7906 3.8168 Businesses & Labor Flexibility: (41%) 6.1405 2.5221 Physical & Social Infrastructure: (21%) 2.2178 0.4549 Summary Findings on Relative Competitiveness Index Amongst Top 10 Mainland China Provinces & Indian States (e) However, when comparing competitiveness of top 10 economies of India based on 2009 data sets with those of China in 1994 that is by giving a handicap of 15 years: • CI-RC Index indicated that India overall competitiveness is actually 45% more than China , economically more competitive than China by 10%, more effective than China in government & institutions by 208% , with greater business efficiency & labor flexibility by 111%, but still lagging behind in physical and social infrastructure by 50%! (f) Interestingly when comparing competitiveness of top 10 economies of India based on 2009 data sets with those of China in 1999 that is by giving a handicap of 10 years • CI-RC Index reflected that India was overall more competitive than China by 16%, economically less competitive than China by 17%, 53% more effective than China in government & institutions and 57% more efficient in business & labor flexibility, but lagging behind even more in physical and social infrastructure with only 34% (g) Noticed when comparing competitiveness of top 10 economies of India based on 2009 data sets with those of China in 2004 that is by giving a handicap of 5 years. • CI-RC Index reflected that India was only 43% of China overall competitiveness, and India’s was only 25% of China’s economy vibrancy , both of are of equal effectiveness in terms of government and institutions , and India has only 41% of China business efficiency and labor flexibility , and left behind even more with 21% in terms of physical and social infrastructure ! (h) If we further provide up to 15 years of handicap to India, that is to say comparing data set of 2009 for India with those of China in 1994, in terms of competitiveness in physical Thank you for your attention