Download 8/29/2014

8/29/2014
High-level Meeting for Coordinated Implementation of International Standards for
Macroeconomic Statistics, Vladivostok
3-4 Sep, 2014
MONGOLIA:
ACTIVITIES AIMED AT IMPROVING
MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS
B.BADAMTSETSEG
NSO, Mongolia
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CONTENTS
I.
THE PLAN TO IMPROVE MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS
II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS
III. COOPERATION AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVING THE
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
IV. CONCLUSION
V.
FUTURE ACTIVITIES
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I. THE PLAN TO IMPROVE MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS
The implementation of Macroeconomic statistics was the integral part
of the NSDS
NSDS (2011-2015)
approved by Parliament
Action plan (2011-2015)
approved by Statistical Counsel
Annual work plan
approved by NSO Chairman
Next round of NSDS 2016-2020: on going process
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I. THE PLAN TO IMPROVE MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS
The implementation of Macroeconomic statistics was the integral part of the
Monstat project.
Component A:
Improving policy, regulatory, and
institutional framework and the
organizational structure of the statistical
system;
Component B:
Strengthening the statistical
infrastructure;
MonStat Project
2009-2014
(World Bank)
Component C:
Upgrading statistical data outputs;
Component D:
Preparation of an IT-Plan;
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II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Data sources for producing Macro
economic statistics
Census:
Est.census;
ag.census; PHC
Business
Register
(NSO)
(NSO)
Surveys:
IOT survey; NOE
survey; HSES
(NSO)
BOP and
monetary
statistics
(CB)
GFS
(MOF)
MACRO
ECONOMIC
STATISTICS
FTS
(Customs Office)
Business
statistics
(NSO)
Price Statistics
(NSO)
Administrative
data
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II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
 Institutional structure has been set up for improving
Macroeconomic statistics and activities have started.
Inter-agency working group:
Composition:
• NSO
• Bank of Mongolia
• Ministry of Finance
• Ministry of Economic Development
• General Customs Office
Objectives of the working group:
• To study changes of SNA 1993 to ensure integration and harmony
between 2008 SNA, BPM6 and GFS 2014;
• To implement 2008 SNA recommendations;
• To produce core set of economic statistics;
• To create necessary data sources.
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II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Implemented activities within the group:
• Several meetings were organized and the following arrangements
were made:

Harmony between 2008 SNA, BPM6, and GFSM-2014;

Introduction of SUT 2010’s results;

Improve calculation of export, import price index and terms
of trade index;

Update the methodology of foreign trade statistics.
• Translation “GFSM-2014” financed by MOF;
• Consultant’s service on “GFSM-2014” provided by IMF.
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II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Statistical infrastructure has been improved:
• Systematic revision of questionnaires and creation of data sources
for compilation of annual SUT;
• Technological solution enabling automatic updating of BR
database based on GASR data;
• Introduction of sample survey to economic statistics and start of
seasonally adjusted estimations.
Latest versions of classifications have been revised and applied:
• ISIC-4.0
• CPC-2.0
• COICOP
• Asset classification
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II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
 Methodological foundation was set up for 2008 SNA.
Methodologies on:
• GDP and GNI estimation
• Quarterly GDP estimation
• Sector accounts compilation
• SUT and IOT compilation
• Balance of payment methodology revised based on BPM6
Price statistics was improved:
• Calculation of Regional CPI
• 2010 base year Industrial Production Index
• Calculation of 2010 base year Construction Cost Index
• Calculation of HPI
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II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Related census, surveys and estimations have been carried out
NON OBSERVED
ECONOMY SURVEY
CENSUSES
COMPILATION
Agricultural
census, 20102011.
First time, the
results of SUT and
IOT were
disseminated to
users in details.
First time all (N1-N7) fields
of NOE were covered.
Some main
indicators were
compiled according
to SNA 2008
recommendations.
Results of NOE were
integrated to the annual GDP
estimation.
Establishment
census, 2010.
Base data of informal sector
were created.
The internationally
comparative data were
collected.
GDP has estimated based on SUT and revised the estimation at constant
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price of 2010. The GDP dynamics has been revised for 2010-2013.
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II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
 Scope of the implementation of the 2008SNA - “Milestone”
Level 1
• Basic indicators of GDP
Level 2
• GNI and other primary indicators
Level 3
• Institutional
i i l sector accounts (fi
(first step: ffor all
ll iinstitutional
i i l
sectors production accounts, current, capital and financial
account))
Level 4
• Institutional sector accounts (intermediate step 1: for all
institutional sectors current accounts and capital account)
Level 5
• Institutional sector accounts (intermediate step 2: for all
institutional sectors financial accounts)
Level 6
• Other changes of volume accounts and balance sheet
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II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
 The core set of economic statistics: Availability of Core set of
Economic Statistics /ESCAP/
Series
Prices and costs
Demand and output
Income and wealth
Money and banking
Government
Labour market
Natural resources and the
environment
Total
International
(ESCAP)
Mongolia
6
12
6
3
2
2
1
5
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6
3
2
2
0
Incorporated
indicators in
NSDS, Mongolia
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2
3
3
2
1
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Unavailable indicators: Labour costs index, consumer demand, natural resources
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III. COOPERATION AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVING
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
 Bilateral cooperation
Visit to ABS:
• Compilation of National Accounts
• Economic sector accounting and implementation of SEEA-CF2012
• Australian experience on development of the EnvironmentalEconomic accounting
Visit to South Korea (NSO and MEGD):
•
•
•
•
Policy in support of green growth;
Green growth indicators;
Greenhouse gas and registration of waste statistics;
Economic and environmental accounting.
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III. COOPERATION AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVING OF
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
 Ulaanbaatar city group-2012

UBCG on Statistics for Economies based on Natural Resources
was established in 2012 (UNSC 43rd Session).

Steering Committee (12 countries and IO) and Expert group (13
countries and IO). Membership is still open to other countries.

Four work streams were defined.
• Work stream 1: Develop a harmonized system of standard
indicators for data collection
• Work stream 2: Assess the impact of the mining industry on
economies and develop practical recommendations;
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III. COOPERATION AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVING OF
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
 Ulaanbaatar city group-2012 (cont.)
• Work stream 3 and 4: Develop methodologies and indicators
for assessing the impact of mining industry on the social and
environmental sector.

Mongolia drafted the set of statistical indicators (more than 200
indicators) to measure the impacts of mining industry on economy,
society and environment.

Structure of the guideline is described.

The Group will submit its report to the 46th Session of UNSC.
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III. COOPERATION AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVING OF
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
 Adapted global Assessment (UNECE, Eurostat, EFTA, ESCAP)2013:

The first country in the Asia-Pacific region.

Main objectives of AGA are to evaluate NSS as a whole, assess
official statistics development and provide insight and
recommendations for improving the entire system, operations,
statistical activities and related capacities.
 Recommendations:

Recommendations were provided as a future direction to further
improve economic statistics.

Recommendations were given to prioritize the 2008 SNA changes
and start to implement more important issues.
Information: International conference on Global assessment as basis for the
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development of a statistical system to be held on 1-2 October 2014 in UB.
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III. COOPERATION AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVING OF
ECONOMIC STATISTICS

Recommendations:

Specific comments on GFS and BOP:

The Balance of Payment of Mongolia should be gradually approaching the SDDS
requirements.

Highlight in the framework of the implementation of the 6th edition of the IMF
Balance of Payments Manual (BPM6) and the 2008 System of National Accounts
(2008 SNA), the Bank of Mongolia and the National Statistical Office of Mongolia
work in a coordinated way.

Improve the quality of the Balance of Payment and Government finance statistics.

More staff and/or time should be available to increase the quality of Government
Finance Statistics in Mongolia.

Technical assistance seems necessary in order to help establishing a sound practise
for the production of Government Finance Statistics and increased clarity and
awareness about the internationally recommended methodologies.
Information: International conference on Global assessment as basis for the
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development of a statistical system to be held on 1-2 October 2014 in UB.
IV. CONCLUSION
1. The changes to reflect in NA.
CHANGES
IMPLEMENTATION
Now: R&D falls into the fixed asset classification.
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Research and
development
2 Calculation of
FISIM
Output of
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Central Bank
Future: Firstly, to determine whether R&D has return or not. If it has
return then it assumed that a statistical unit and output will be
estimated by a single unit.
Now: FISIM is distributed to IC and final consumption in the
domestic production framework.
Future: FISIM will be distributed to export and import.
Now: We use cost approach by using the formula: output = IC+
compensation + CFC
Future: Identify Central Bank services in 3 groups and estimate
output
Now: Output is calculated by using the following formula: output =
Output of non- insurance premium -insurance claim + other income
4 life insurance
Future: NSO will choose a suitable one of 3 approaches for
services
estimating non life-insurance output.
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IV. CONCLUSION
1. The changes to reflect in NA (cont.)
CHANGES
Valuation of
output for own
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final use by
households
Non observed
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economy
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Measurement
of storage
Weapons
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system
IMPLEMENTATION
Now: In progress. From the Agr. census result we got more data
sources of output for own final use by household of agriculture.
Future: Other economic activities will be estimated.
Now: Completed.
Now: In progress.
Future: Separate estimation will be made for storage activity.
Now: Weapons system is classified in fixed asset according to the
asset classification, hence it is included to the GFCF in GDP by
expenditure approach.
Future: Estimation will be improved.
Now: Deprecation rate is used for estimation.
9 Consumption
Future: We will introduce PIM method in our 2014-2015 GDP
of fixed capital
estimation.
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IV. CONCLUSION
1. The changes to reflect in NA (cont.)
CHANGES
IMPLEMENTATION
Now: Business register has been expanded by statistical
Institutional units and unit based on the Establishment Census.
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sectors
Future: Institutional sector’s classification will be revised
and approved.
Refinement
of
the
treatment and definition
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of financial instruments
and assets
The scope of
transactions
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concerning government
and public sector
Now: It is reflected in the institutional sector accounts
methodology. Asset classification was revised and
approved.
Future: To study about financial instrument. Data source
of financial accounts will be applied and financial account
will be compiled in experimental base.
Now: Set up inter-agency working group
Future: Plan is to translate GFS 2014, develop national
methodology, improve data sources. We will do list of public
sector enterprises and classify them into appropriate sector.
Harmonization between Now: “ВРM methodology” was revised and approved.
concepts and
Future: Collaborate with Central Bank to ensure data
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quality.
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SNA and BPM6
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IV. FUTURE ACTIVITIES
•
To elaborate activities to further improve macroeconomic
statistics and incorporate into the next NSDS;
•
To compile annual SUT on experimental basis;
•
To transfer/use Chain index;
•
To improve Government Finance Statistics;
•
To compile financial accounts and other changes of volume
accounts;
•
To strengthen and intensify cooperation and activities under
cooperation arrangements:
–
Allocation of FISIM
–
Implement changes in insurance sector.
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION
Tel :(976-11) - 263152
Fax :(976-11) - 324518
Web page : www.nso.mn
www.1212.mn
E-Mail : [email protected]
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