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University of Vermont Department of Economics EC 171 Macroeconomic Theory TTH: 11:30am-12:45 pm Lafayette 311 Spring 2010 Professor Stephanie Seguino Old Mill 340 Telephone: 6-0187 Office Hours: T/Th 10-11am Syllabus Course Description This class explores the theoretical background for understanding macroeconomic problems and policy options. Topics include the IS-LM and AS-AD general equilibrium systems, money, unemployment, inflation, and interest rates. We will be emphasizing the historical context of our tools as well as highlighting real world applications of them. We will compare and contrast the major macroeconomic theories, including Keynesian, Classical, New Classical, and PostKeynesian models. The use of models to develop an understanding of how macroeconomies work requires algebra and, from time to time, calculus. The models are used to explore a number of questions about the price level, aggregate output, and unemployment. What explains recessions? What causes inflation? What are the macroeconomic effects of tax cuts? Does increased income inequality have macroeconomic effects? Can we raise wages and promote economic growth? It is assumed that you have a good understanding of the fundamental concepts of Demand and Supply, Unemployment, Inflation, Gross Domestic Product, Business Cycles, and Fiscal and Monetary Policy. Prerequisites All students registering for this course must have taken EC 11 and 12 as well as Math 19 (or 21) in order to have the level of preparedness in economic theory and math required to successfully complete this course. You must have a valid UVM email account. If you have a private account, you should forward your UVM email to that account. Textbooks This course has two books that can be purchased from the University bookstore. Additional readings will be available from the library reserve desk or provided in class. (1) Olivier Blanchard. 2000. Macroeconomics (Fifth Edition). Upper Saddle River, NJ: PrenticeHall. (Package includes Findlay, David. Study Guide and Tutorial for Blanchard. 2000. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall). ISBN-13: 9780138149215 . 1 (2) Baker, Dean. 2009. Plunder and Blunder: The Rise and Fall of the Bubble Economy. Polipoint Press. ISBN-10: 0981576990. (3) Hand-outs will be given out from time to time, and these will be considered part of required reading. (4) The New York Times: To subscribe, you can call 1-800-NYTCOLL or visit this web site: http://homedelivery.nytimes.com/HDS/StudentHome.do?mode=studHome Class Requirements Students will be evaluated based on their performance in the following categories: (1) Class participation. You are required to attend all lectures, and to be prepared to participate in class discussions and complete in-class problem solving exercises. I will call on people randomly and so you should be prepared to respond to questions and speak in a modestly knowledgeable way about current economic events. Preparation necessitates reading the newspaper daily (those articles referring to macroeconomic issues), and doing the course reading in advance. (2) Two mid-term exams, February 18 and April 1. Please take note and arrange your travel schedules accordingly. There are no make-up exams except in case of documented medical emergency. There will also be a comprehensive final exam at the regularly scheduled time. I would expect that to study well for these exams, you would need to put in at least 9-12 hours of work. (3) You should regularly read a major newspaper. See above for info on obtaining home delivery of the New York Times. (4) You should do questions in the Study Guide. These will help you to understand the material with greater depth and to identify areas on which you need additional help. You are encouraged to work in groups on these problems. Weights of these course requirements in your final grade are: Class participation Exam 1 Exam 2 Final exam 20% of final grade 25% of final grade 25% of final grade 35% of final grade Student responsibility I have tried to give you a good idea of what the course involves and the timetable on which we will work through the material. I reserve the right to change readings, times, and other aspects of the syllabus as needed, however. You are responsible for reading your syllabus to keep abreast of the schedule, and staying current on any other changes to the syllabus, which will be announced in class. For most students this is a challenging class, so doing well requires a sustained effort. That effort includes coming to EVERY class, taking clear detailed notes, reading chapters before class lectures, reading the newspaper every day (ok, skip Saturdays), and doing supplemental questions in the study guide. Two important pieces of advice: 1) Come see me when you have problems with the material. If you can’t understand something on your own, it is very dangerous to just let it slide by rather then coming to get help; 2) Attend all classes; 3) Study at 2 least 3 hours per week (which includes time for reading the newspaper), and at least 9 hours per exam; 4) Form a study group to work on study guide questions. Course Schedule Date Jan. 19 Day Lecture 1 Reading Blanchard, Chs. 1-2, and Appendices Stiglitz, et al, Chs. 1-2. E-reserve. 3 Topic Introduction, Measurement of Macroeconomic Performance Lecture 1 continued, and calculus review The Short Run: The Goods Market Financial Markets T Jan 21 TH Jan. 26-28 T, TH 2 Feb. 2-4 T, TH Feb. 9-16 T, TH, T 4 The IS-LM Model Blanchard, Ch. 5 Feb. 18 Feb. 26-28 TH T,TH 5 March 2-4 T, TH, 6 March 1623 T, TH, T 7 The Phillips Curve and the Keynesian-Monetarist Debate March 2530 April 1 April 6-13 TH, T 8 TH T, TH, T 9 April 15 TH Open Economy Macro: Goods Market Implications Exam 2 Lecture 8 continued and Interest and Exchange Rates in the Open Economy; Exchange rate regimes Inflation Targeting April 20-22 T, TH 10 Exam 1 The Medium Run: The Labor Market The Aggregate SupplyAggregate Demand Model Economic Growth 3 Blanchard, Ch.3 Blanchard, Ch. 4, and Ch. 22-1. Blanchard, Ch. 6 (including appendix) Blanchard, Ch. 7. Stiglitz, et al, Ch. 3. E-reserve Blanchard, Ch. 8, 9, 27. Kalecki, M. E-reserve. Mishkin, F. E-reserve. Darity and Goldsmith, E-reserve. Yom and Saleh, E-reserve. Blanchard, Ch. 18, 19 Blanchard, Ch. 20, 21 Epstein, G. 2003. E-reserve or http://wwwx.oit.umass.edu/~peri/html/ 5/25.html Blanchard, Ch. 10, 12 April 27-29 T, TH The global economic crisis May 4 May ? T Tying up loose ends Comprehensive Final Exam Dean Baker (2009), all. www.crisisofcredit.com Hall, L. E-reserve. Film: Capitalism Hits the Fan: A Lecture on the Economic Meltdown Websites on the Global Economic Crisis of 2008 to ? 1. 2. 3. Asian Development Bank on the Global Economic Crisis: http://www.adb.org/EconomicCrisis/default.asp. European Union: http://ec.europa.eu/financial-crisis/index_en.htm World Bank: http://ec.europa.eu/financial-crisis/index_en.htm Resources on Macroeconomics, International Finance, and Globalization 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Network Ideas home page (New Delhi, India)—International and developing country focus on development and macroeconomic issues. Click onto “themes” to search for articles on international finance, macroeconomics, and growth. www.networkideas.org Economic Policy Institute (Washington, DC). US based think tank, with emphasis on trade issues and US macroeconomic. Click onto “government and the economy, living standards and labor markets, or trade and globalization. http://www.epinet.org/ Center for Economic Policy Research (Washington, DC) –Think tank focused on US and global macroeconomics, globalization, and trade issues. There are numerous categories to click onto here. www.cepr.org Levy Economics Institute at Bard College (Annandale-on-Hudson, NY)—Economics think tank, largely focused on US issues. This site takes some work to navigate. Click onto “Public Policy Briefs” and “Policy Notes” to search for articles on the US macroeconomy. http://www.levy.org Roubini Global Monitor- This was Nouriel Roubini’s homepage at NYU. This site was first developed in response to debates on the Asian financial crisis. It has continued and diversified, as you see. It is a good source of news. You can click onto “news” at the top, and select from a variety of categories, including country-specific news, and news about the Fed, all of which will be useful for this course. On the left, see the heading “Macro Resources.” http://www.stern.nyu.edu/globalmacro/ American Enterprise Institute (Washington, D.C.) This site is also takes some work to navigate. You have to spend some time searching for macroeconomics articles, but it is worth it since it provides an alternative perspective to some of the other sites on this list. http://www.aei.org/ For a website that will link you to a wide variety of macroeconomic data sources, see Resources for Economists on the Internet: http://www.aeaweb.org/RFE 4 8. World Development Indicators (World Bank): Over 500 economic variables for 180 countries from 1960 to 2005. Available through the library website. Articles for Philips Curve, the Keynesian-Monetarist Debate, and the UnemploymentInflation Trade-Off 1. 2. 3. 4. Kalecki, M. 1943. “Political Aspects of Full Employment.” In The Legacy of Michael Kalecki. Ereserve. Mishkin, F . 2000. “What Should Central Banks Do?” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/00/11/0011fm.pdf. E-reserve. Yom, Sean and Basel Saleh. 2004. “Palestinian Suicide Bombers.” ECAAR Newsletter, Winter 2004. http://www.ecaar.org/Newsletter/Nov04/saleh.htm Darity, W. and A. Goldsmith. 1996. “Social Psychology, Unemployment and Macroeconomics.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 10(1): 121-40. http://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/jecper/v10y1996i1p121-40.html 5