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Research on Differential Contribution of Industrial Structure to Economic Growth in Counties of Southern Jiangsu Province LU Yu-mei the School of Economic Management,Jiangsu Teachers’ University of Technology P.R.China, 213001 [email protected] Abstract: This paper adopts shift-share analysis method, based on economic data within the period 2000-2006, to analyse the industrial structure, competitiveness and its contribution to GDP growth in fourteen counties of southern area of Jiangsu province. The purpose of this paper is to distinguish relative superiority and inferiority of county industrial structure and its competitiveness. Thus, this paper will propose suggestion for government to adjust industrial structure, reduce regional difference and improve county economic quality. Key words: Industrial structure; Economic growth; Shift-share analysis; Regional difference; Southern areas of Jiangsu province 1 Introduction Regional industrial structure refers to the relationships within various industries of region economic. Under certain premise of economic system, the allocation of area resources and economy efficiency are directly correlated with advantages or disadvantages of industrial structure[1]. The increasing regional economic gap would make negative effect on economy development, which is not good to economy continuance and harmony growth and social stability. Therefore, analyzing and comparing advantages and disadvantages of county industrial structure, has important significance to promoting industrial restructuring , to reducing the regional economic gap and to improving economic growth quality. Economy of southern Jiangsu province has been developed rapidly because of the reform and openness in China , especially county region economy. Meanwhile, the regional economic gap of counties is more apparent. The paper adopts shift share analysis to study contribution of industrial structure on economy growth in counties of Southern Jiangsu province. The suggestion of this paper provides beneficial model for various counties' government to adjust and optimize industrial structure. 2 Study method Shift-Share Method is an effective tool for analyzing space difference. The main thought is following: taking above area as reference frame, according to the relationship between studying regional economy growth and upper regional economy growth , thus calculating studying region’s economy growth in term of upper regional economy growth ration, then compared to its actual economic growth value , finally we can analyze its difference. The difference maybe interpret from two aspects: if county industrial structure is accelerating , the studying regional growth will exceed upper regional economic growth, its industrial structure belonging to effective increasing structure; otherwise, it belonging to non-effective industrial structure. If studying region is the same to upper regional structure, the difference is from competitive component. According to shift share analysis model , the regional actual economy growth can be divided into three variables: county economy growth component, industrial structure disparity component and competitive disparity component . the formula is following[2]: Gi = N i + Pi + Di E Ni =ei0( t −1) E0 137 Eit E − 1)( t − 1)] Ei 0 E0 e E Di = ei 0 [( it − 1)( it − 1)] ei 0 Ei 0 Pi = ei 0 [( Here: Gi, Ni, Pi, Di represents production value growth of i-th industry , county economy growth, industrial structure disparity and competitive disparity within studying period , respectively. e represents regional industrial production value i represents i-th industry( i = 1 2 3) 0 represents based period t represents last period(year). 、、 3 Data processing This paper take the economical region of southern Jiangsu province as the upper region, and choose the data such as GDP, tertiary industries production value etc. within the period 2000 - 2006 from 14 counties governed by Nan Jing, Zheng Jiang, Chang Zhou,Wu Xi, Su Zhou which are five cities situated in the south of Jiang Su province[3-4] . Then, the corresponding data are put into formula and work out the shift-share result of every county(table1). On basis of the table 1,by summing up the shift-share of tertiary industry structure and competitiveness, shift-share of tertiary industry structure(P) and competitiveness (D) of each county can be calculated and counties are then divided into different types(table2)[5]. In order to analyze the contribution of industry structure to economy increase, contribution margin of shift-share of tertiary industry structure(P) and competitiveness(D) should be calculated. The formula[6]is: contribution margin= industry structure shift-share(competitiveness shift-share) /GDP actual account. On this basis ,diversity between counties in southern Jiangsu Province of contribution rate of industrial structure to economy increase in 2000-2006 is shown in table 3 . Tab. 1 Analysis of GDP increase of counties in southern Jangsu Province by shift-share method within the period 2000-2006 (108 yuan) first industry secondary industry tertiary industry county N P D N P D N P D Lishui 21.02 -18.57 5.50 105.76 14.90 -0.74 60.06 -4.13 3.25 Gaochun 25.63 -22.64 4.55 105.49 14.86 38.10 68.83 -4.74 17.23 Jiangyin 30.90 -27.30 -0.84 1117.33 157.42 81.54 616.90 -42.45 73.22 Yixing 31.19 -27.55 -2.92 462.31 65.13 -145.71 277.31 -19.08 -23.21 Liyang 29.84 -26.36 2.71 222.48 31.34 0.55 139.60 -9.61 1.05 Jintan 26.35 -23.28 3.03 175.58 24.74 14.44 125.82 -8.66 29.82 Changshu 31.50 -27.83 -1.11 872.08 122.87 211.06 553.83 -38.11 86.13 Zhangjia -19.85 0.41 982.70 138.45 200.50 510.45 -35.12 40.70 22.47 gang Kunshan 18.96 -16.75 -2.92 1138.87 160.45 1422.56 520.57 -35.82 415.14 Wujiang 30.81 -27.22 -1.17 578.84 81.55 66.65 292.13 -20.10 -45.40 Taicang 28.15 -24.87 -1.47 401.68 56.59 -83.22 230.42 -15.85 -314.82 Danyang 29.53 -26.09 1.15 318.46 44.87 -124.31 192.69 -13.26 -57.80 Yangzhong 7.08 -6.25 -0.47 137.44 19.36 -64.13 80.68 -5.55 -18.32 Jurong 21.18 -18.71 1.96 133.33 18.79 -58.62 69.33 -4.77 -29.11 Data source : Statistical yearbook of Jiangsu (2001), Statistical yearbook of Jiangsu (2006). Tab. 2 The classification of shift-share analysis Characteristics P>0, D>0 types Type of rapid growth counties Jiangyin, Changshu, Zhangjiagang, Kunshan, Wujiang 138 P>0, D<0 Type of industry factor drive Yixing, Taicang, Danyang, Yangzhong P<0, D>0 Type of regional factor drive Lishui, Gaochun,Liyang, Jintan P<0, D<0 Type of low growth Jurong Tab. 3 The diversity between counties in southern Jangsu Province of contribution rate of industrial structure to economy increase in 2000-2006 contribution rate contribution rate Counties Counties of industrial of competitiveness structure(%) (%) Jiangyin, Changshu, > 10 Zhangjiagang, Kunshan, > 50 Gaochun,Changshu, Kunshan Wujiang, Yangzhong 5-10 Yixing, Taicang 20-50 Jiangyin, Jintan, hangjiagang 0-5 Danyang 0-20 Lishui, Liyang, Wujiang 4 Result analysis 4.1 shift share analysis According to tab.1, all of the industrial structure component data of first and tertiary industries are negative numbers, which means that the growth speed of first and tertiary industries has already lagged behind that of regional economy in southern Jangsu Province. The industrial structure component data of secondary industry are positive numbers, and large positive numbers shows that counties in southern Jangsu Province are on rapid industrializing stages. So, the economic growth of these region mainly results from push effect of the secondary industry. The results of shift-share analysis on counties in southern Jiangsu Province are different for its unbalanced economic growth. The county growth component of first industry in Changshu city(3.15 billion) and Yixing city(3.12 billion)are the first two larger followed by Jiangyin city(3.09 billion), Wujiang city(3.08billion) and Liyang city(2.98 billion). But the industrial structure disparity component of these counties are large negative numbers, which means that the first industry has deviated from the standard industrial structure, and should be enhancing in quality. The county growth component of secondary industry in Kunshan city is highest amounts to 113.89 billion, Jiangyin and Zhangjiagang city rank the Second and the third. The industrial structure disparity component of these three city also places the first three, which means that the second industrial structure of these 3 counties (city) is fine. The county growth component of tertiary industry in Jiangyin, Changshu and Kunshan city are 61.69 , 55.38, 52.06billion respectively, but their industrial structure disparity component are negative numbers, which means that the regional tertiary industry development speed is slow. 4.2 Analysis on Combination of Industrial structure and competitiveness disparity component There are four kind of different combinations of industrial structure disparity component and competitive power disparity component. On this basis, the contribution of industrial structure to economic growth in various counties are divides into the following four types: (1)rapid growth city, such as Jiangyin, Changshu, Zhangjiagang, Kunshan, Wujiang, are experiencing its rapid economic growth for both industrial structure advantages and competitiveness advantages; (2) industry factor drived city, such as Yixing, Taicang, Danyang, Yangzhong, have effective industrial structure that affect the economic growth in that region; (3) regional factor drived city, such as Lishui, Gaochun,Liyang, Jintan, have non-effective industrial structure and competitiveness advantages ; (4) slow growth city , of which the economic growth has been restricted by both industrial structure and regional factors. 4.3 analysis on contribution rate of industrial structure and competitiveness to economy increase According to tab.3, the contribution margins of industrial structure to economic growth are positive numbers in 9 counties (city). The contribution margins of Kunshan, Zhangjiagang and Jiangyin city are14.75%, 14.60%, 13.44% respectively. Meanwhile, the contribution margins of competitiveness to 139 economic growth are positive numbers in 9 counties (city). The contribution margins of Kunshan city is highest amounts to 250.92%. Overall speaking, the contribution margins of competitiveness is bigger obviously than that of industrial structure to economic growth. 5 conclusions and suggestions 5.1 The development of three industries in counties was unbalanced in southern Jiangsu Province The first and tertiary industries have given reverse push to economic growth.. However, the secondary industry has a great driving effect on economic growth.. Therefore, efficiency of the first industry should be improved through increasing investment in agriculture sci-tech and industrializing highly effective agriculture. Simultaneously, The tertiary industry should be developed greatly based on regional predominance and abundant labor sources in southern Jiangsu Province. To promote overall level of tertiary industry, government of counties may give priority to develop fostering emerging industries, such as finance, trade, information, service, etc., and this can stimulate development of other industries. 5.2 There were significant different influence between competitiveness and industrial structure component of three industries on economic growth in counties of southern Jiangsu Province. If government does not pay more attention to this difference, it will be enlarged. So it becomes key issues about government to take measures reducing the disparity. For counties of rapid growth type, there were advantages of industrial structure and competitiveness. The industrial structure of these counties can be further modulated to realize leading development, and then the development of other counties will be stimulated with expanding effect of developed region. For counties of regional factor drived type,regional factors contributes a lot to their economic growth with irrational industrial structure. Based on present advantageous factors, the industrial structure in these counties should be adjusted to optimize industry structure and to enhance regional competitiveness in future. 5.3 The contribution of regional factors to economic growth is greater than that of industrial structure in counties of southern Jiangsu Province. The obvious driving effect of regional factors on economic growth is caused by the comparative advantage of resources, transportation, science and technology, education, industrial infrastructure, etc.. Consequently, local government of southern Jiangsu Province should adjust and optimize positively the industrial structure in these counties, advancing their advantages , to promote both regional and national economic growth . References [1]Li Xiao-jian. Economic geography[M]. Higher Education Press, 2006. [2]Gao Hong-sen.Regional economics[M]. China Renmin University Press, 2002. [3]Statistics Bureau of Jiangsu Province.Statistical yearbook of Jiangsu[R]. China Statistics Press, 2001. [4]Statistics bureau of Jiangsu Province.Statistical yearbook of Jiangsu[R]. China Statistics Press, 2007. [5]Yang Wang-zhou, Wu You-de. Research on regional difference of contribution of industrial structure to economic growth in Hubei[ J] .Statistics and Decision, 2007, (21): 126-128. [6] Luo Yong-le, Wei Hai-tao. A study on regional difference of industrial structure and its contribution to economic growth in Hunan[ J] .Economic geography, 2005, 25(4):491-194. 140