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Research on Differential Contribution of Industrial Structure to
Economic Growth in Counties of Southern Jiangsu Province
LU Yu-mei
the School of Economic Management,Jiangsu Teachers’ University of Technology P.R.China, 213001
[email protected]
Abstract: This paper adopts shift-share analysis method, based on economic data within the period
2000-2006, to analyse the industrial structure, competitiveness and its contribution to GDP growth in
fourteen counties of southern area of Jiangsu province. The purpose of this paper is to distinguish
relative superiority and inferiority of county industrial structure and its competitiveness. Thus, this paper
will propose suggestion for government to adjust industrial structure, reduce regional difference and
improve county economic quality.
Key words: Industrial structure; Economic growth; Shift-share analysis; Regional difference; Southern
areas of Jiangsu province
1 Introduction
Regional industrial structure refers to the relationships within various industries of region economic.
Under certain premise of economic system, the allocation of area resources and economy efficiency are
directly correlated with advantages or disadvantages of industrial structure[1]. The increasing regional
economic gap would make negative effect on economy development, which is not good to economy
continuance and harmony growth and social stability. Therefore, analyzing and comparing advantages
and disadvantages of county industrial structure, has important significance to promoting industrial
restructuring , to reducing the regional economic gap and to improving economic growth quality.
Economy of southern Jiangsu province has been developed rapidly because of the reform and openness
in China , especially county region economy. Meanwhile, the regional economic gap of counties is more
apparent. The paper adopts shift share analysis to study contribution of industrial structure on economy
growth in counties of Southern Jiangsu province. The suggestion of this paper provides beneficial model
for various counties' government to adjust and optimize industrial structure.
2 Study method
Shift-Share Method is an effective tool for analyzing space difference. The main thought is following:
taking above area as reference frame, according to the relationship between studying regional economy
growth and upper regional economy growth , thus calculating studying region’s economy growth in
term of upper regional economy growth ration, then compared to its actual economic growth value ,
finally we can analyze its difference. The difference maybe interpret from two aspects: if county
industrial structure is accelerating , the studying regional growth will exceed upper regional economic
growth, its industrial structure belonging to effective increasing structure; otherwise, it belonging to
non-effective industrial structure. If studying region is the same to upper regional structure, the
difference is from competitive component.
According to shift share analysis model , the regional actual economy growth can be divided into three
variables: county economy growth component, industrial structure disparity component and competitive
disparity component . the formula is following[2]:
Gi = N i + Pi + Di
E
Ni =ei0( t −1)
E0
137
Eit
E
− 1)( t − 1)]
Ei 0
E0
e
E
Di = ei 0 [( it − 1)( it − 1)]
ei 0
Ei 0
Pi = ei 0 [(
Here:
Gi, Ni, Pi, Di represents production value growth of i-th industry , county economy growth, industrial
structure disparity and competitive disparity within studying period , respectively.
e represents regional industrial production value
i represents i-th industry( i = 1 2 3)
0 represents based period
t represents last period(year).
、、
3 Data processing
This paper take the economical region of southern Jiangsu province as the upper region, and choose the
data such as GDP, tertiary industries production value etc. within the period 2000 - 2006 from 14
counties governed by Nan Jing, Zheng Jiang, Chang Zhou,Wu Xi, Su Zhou which are five cities situated
in the south of Jiang Su province[3-4] . Then, the corresponding data are put into formula and work out
the shift-share result of every county(table1). On basis of the table 1,by summing up the shift-share of
tertiary industry structure and competitiveness, shift-share of tertiary industry structure(P) and
competitiveness (D) of each county can be calculated and counties are then divided into different
types(table2)[5]. In order to analyze the contribution of industry structure to economy increase,
contribution margin of shift-share of tertiary industry structure(P) and competitiveness(D) should be
calculated. The formula[6]is: contribution margin= industry structure shift-share(competitiveness
shift-share) /GDP actual account. On this basis ,diversity between counties in southern Jiangsu Province
of contribution rate of industrial structure to economy increase in 2000-2006 is shown in table 3 .
Tab. 1 Analysis of GDP increase of counties in southern Jangsu Province by shift-share method within the
period 2000-2006 (108 yuan)
first industry
secondary industry
tertiary industry
county
N
P
D
N
P
D
N
P
D
Lishui
21.02
-18.57
5.50
105.76
14.90
-0.74
60.06
-4.13
3.25
Gaochun
25.63
-22.64
4.55
105.49
14.86
38.10
68.83
-4.74
17.23
Jiangyin
30.90
-27.30
-0.84
1117.33
157.42
81.54
616.90
-42.45
73.22
Yixing
31.19
-27.55
-2.92
462.31
65.13
-145.71
277.31
-19.08
-23.21
Liyang
29.84
-26.36
2.71
222.48
31.34
0.55
139.60
-9.61
1.05
Jintan
26.35
-23.28
3.03
175.58
24.74
14.44
125.82
-8.66
29.82
Changshu
31.50
-27.83
-1.11
872.08
122.87
211.06
553.83
-38.11
86.13
Zhangjia
-19.85
0.41
982.70
138.45
200.50
510.45
-35.12
40.70
22.47
gang
Kunshan
18.96
-16.75
-2.92
1138.87
160.45
1422.56
520.57
-35.82
415.14
Wujiang
30.81
-27.22
-1.17
578.84
81.55
66.65
292.13
-20.10
-45.40
Taicang
28.15
-24.87
-1.47
401.68
56.59
-83.22
230.42
-15.85
-314.82
Danyang
29.53
-26.09
1.15
318.46
44.87
-124.31
192.69
-13.26
-57.80
Yangzhong
7.08
-6.25
-0.47
137.44
19.36
-64.13
80.68
-5.55
-18.32
Jurong
21.18
-18.71
1.96
133.33
18.79
-58.62
69.33
-4.77
-29.11
Data source : Statistical yearbook of Jiangsu (2001), Statistical yearbook of Jiangsu (2006).
Tab. 2 The classification of shift-share analysis
Characteristics
P>0, D>0
types
Type of rapid growth
counties
Jiangyin, Changshu, Zhangjiagang, Kunshan, Wujiang
138
P>0, D<0
Type of industry factor drive
Yixing, Taicang, Danyang, Yangzhong
P<0, D>0
Type of regional factor drive
Lishui, Gaochun,Liyang, Jintan
P<0, D<0
Type of low growth
Jurong
Tab. 3 The diversity between counties in southern Jangsu Province of contribution rate of industrial
structure to economy increase in 2000-2006
contribution rate
contribution rate
Counties
Counties
of industrial
of competitiveness
structure(%)
(%)
Jiangyin, Changshu,
> 10
Zhangjiagang, Kunshan,
> 50
Gaochun,Changshu, Kunshan
Wujiang, Yangzhong
5-10
Yixing, Taicang
20-50
Jiangyin, Jintan, hangjiagang
0-5
Danyang
0-20
Lishui, Liyang, Wujiang
4 Result analysis
4.1 shift share analysis
According to tab.1, all of the industrial structure component data of first and tertiary industries are
negative numbers, which means that the growth speed of first and tertiary industries has already lagged
behind that of regional economy in southern Jangsu Province. The industrial structure component data
of secondary industry are positive numbers, and large positive numbers shows that counties in southern
Jangsu Province are on rapid industrializing stages. So, the economic growth of these region mainly
results from push effect of the secondary industry.
The results of shift-share analysis on counties in southern Jiangsu Province are different for its
unbalanced economic growth. The county growth component of first industry in Changshu city(3.15
billion) and Yixing city(3.12 billion)are the first two larger followed by Jiangyin city(3.09 billion),
Wujiang city(3.08billion) and Liyang city(2.98 billion). But the industrial structure disparity component
of these counties are large negative numbers, which means that the first industry has deviated from the
standard industrial structure, and should be enhancing in quality. The county growth component of
secondary industry in Kunshan city is highest amounts to 113.89 billion, Jiangyin and Zhangjiagang city
rank the Second and the third. The industrial structure disparity component of these three city also
places the first three, which means that the second industrial structure of these 3 counties (city) is fine.
The county growth component of tertiary industry in Jiangyin, Changshu and Kunshan city are 61.69 ,
55.38, 52.06billion respectively, but their industrial structure disparity component are negative numbers,
which means that the regional tertiary industry development speed is slow.
4.2 Analysis on Combination of Industrial structure and competitiveness disparity component
There are four kind of different combinations of industrial structure disparity component and
competitive power disparity component. On this basis, the contribution of industrial structure to
economic growth in various counties are divides into the following four types: (1)rapid growth city, such
as Jiangyin, Changshu, Zhangjiagang, Kunshan, Wujiang, are experiencing its rapid economic growth
for both industrial structure advantages and competitiveness advantages; (2) industry factor drived city,
such as Yixing, Taicang, Danyang, Yangzhong, have effective industrial structure that affect the
economic growth in that region; (3) regional factor drived city, such as Lishui, Gaochun,Liyang, Jintan,
have non-effective industrial structure and competitiveness advantages ; (4) slow growth city , of which
the economic growth has been restricted by both industrial structure and regional factors.
4.3 analysis on contribution rate of industrial structure and competitiveness to economy increase
According to tab.3, the contribution margins of industrial structure to economic growth are positive
numbers in 9 counties (city). The contribution margins of Kunshan, Zhangjiagang and Jiangyin city
are14.75%, 14.60%, 13.44% respectively. Meanwhile, the contribution margins of competitiveness to
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economic growth are positive numbers in 9 counties (city). The contribution margins of Kunshan city is
highest amounts to 250.92%. Overall speaking, the contribution margins of competitiveness is bigger
obviously than that of industrial structure to economic growth.
5 conclusions and suggestions
5.1 The development of three industries in counties was unbalanced in southern Jiangsu Province
The first and tertiary industries have given reverse push to economic growth.. However, the secondary
industry has a great driving effect on economic growth.. Therefore, efficiency of the first industry should
be improved through increasing investment in agriculture sci-tech and industrializing highly effective
agriculture. Simultaneously, The tertiary industry should be developed greatly based on regional
predominance and abundant labor sources in southern Jiangsu Province. To promote overall level of
tertiary industry, government of counties may give priority to develop fostering emerging industries,
such as finance, trade, information, service, etc., and this can stimulate development of other industries.
5.2 There were significant different influence between competitiveness and industrial structure
component of three industries on economic growth in counties of southern Jiangsu Province.
If government does not pay more attention to this difference, it will be enlarged. So it becomes key
issues about government to take measures reducing the disparity. For counties of rapid growth type,
there were advantages of industrial structure and competitiveness. The industrial structure of these
counties can be further modulated to realize leading development, and then the development of other
counties will be stimulated with expanding effect of developed region. For counties of regional factor
drived type,regional factors contributes a lot to their economic growth with irrational industrial structure.
Based on present advantageous factors, the industrial structure in these counties should be adjusted to
optimize industry structure and to enhance regional competitiveness in future.
5.3 The contribution of regional factors to economic growth is greater than that of industrial
structure in counties of southern Jiangsu Province.
The obvious driving effect of regional factors on economic growth is caused by the comparative
advantage of resources, transportation, science and technology, education, industrial infrastructure, etc..
Consequently, local government of southern Jiangsu Province should adjust and optimize positively the
industrial structure in these counties, advancing their advantages , to promote both regional and national
economic growth .
References
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