Download Researc h on Regional Compre he ns ive Technological

Research on Regional Comprehensive Technological
Capability Evaluation
LU Ye-fei
College of Business Administration,Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, P.R.China, 310014
Abstract: By defining comprehensive technological capability, this essay presents the index for regional
comprehensive technology capability that is also known as the target realization. The index shows the
positions of each region, improvement, and the absolute distance from defined targets. The descending
dimension of this evaluation system is supported by the method of weighting summation and verified by
the method of factor analysis. The regional comprehensive technological capability realization adopts
revised Euclidean Distance, and calculation is made by SPSS11.5.
Key words: Comprehensive technological capability, Target realization, Euclidean distance.
1. Define comprehensive technology capability
The comprehensive technological capability is a combination of technological strength (including
technological input and output, as well as the technological capability in accelerating economy and
society development), technological sustainable renovation capability (including sustainable renovation
input and output), and technological competitiveness. Technological strength refers to total resources of
scientific, technological, and renovation activities, technological conversion efficiency and capability to
accelerate economy and society development. Technological renovation capability shows integrated
capability in the whole process from understanding of natural or society development rules, to
emergence of new concepts and ideas originated from the rules, and to renovation of products, technique,
management, organization, and regulations. Relying on the regional technological strength and more
importantly on creation of renovation environment, it shows the capability of local government and
economic entities to make technological renovation by all available technological strength in the world.
Moreover, the technological sustainable renovation capability shows the efforts in fostering
technological renovation capability. Technological competitiveness is the capability to improve
technological strength, and to convert technological sustainable renovation capability and technological
strength into economic strength.
Technological strength is the static reflection of technological resource reserve. Technological
sustainable renovation capability is the core of comprehensive technological capability. Technological
competitiveness is the dynamic reflection of technological strength cored by technological renovation
capability in technological competition, and shows the vigor of technological resources. Powerful
technological strength does not equal powerful technological competitiveness. If it is abundant in
technological resource reserve but week in economic strength, the technological competitiveness of this
region is not powerful. If it is poor in resources but capable to attract external technological
achievements to improve local productivity, the region is considered to be strong in technological
competitiveness. As a conclusion, technological competitiveness is not judged by traditionally defined
technological strength, but also the strength or the weakness in competition.
2. Build up Regional Comprehensive Technological Capability Evaluation Index
System
We analyzed the existing research achievements made by Chinese or foreign specialists and made a
profound study on evaluation indexes about technological strength, technological progress,
technological competitiveness, and technological renovation capability. The index selection is based on
index target, definition, and availability. The index system is of the largest coverage and the least
numbers, so that the most important and characteristic indexes can be selected among a large number of
options to form the regional comprehensive technological capability evaluation index system, and to
hereby build up the regional comprehensive technological evaluation index for regional comprehensive
technological target realization. The capability realization compares the real realization and the target of
11 7
all indexes to have the target realization information. This essay adopts regional comprehensive
technological capability target realization index to shows positions of regions, and the absolute
difference and improvement of capability.
Based on above principles and ideas, a multi-level index system is configured to contain 55
fundamental indexes in 3 aspects and at 4 levels. Furthermore, 18 key indexes are chosen to configure
an index system with fewer indexes. Delphi method is adopted to value the weights, and factor analysis
method is used to adjust weight values.
According to the meaning of regional comprehensive technological capability, the calculation
formula is designed as below:
As for Index k, its realization (Zik) in Region i is defined as below:
[%]
Z = MIN (100, ( X / X ) ×100)
ik
ik
k0
In the above formula, Xik indicates the value of Index k in Region i, and Xko is the target value of
Index k. Its realization shows the percentage on target. In case that the value of one particular index
exceeds the target value, its realization is 100%.
The realization (Li) of Region i is defined as below:
[%]
L = 100 − d
i
i
d =
i
1 m
∑ (W / W ) Z ik − 100 2
m k = 1 ik
(
)
[%]
In the above formula, di is the revised Euclidean distance to show how far the target is. Once all
indexes reach up or exceed target values, all Zik are 100%, and di equals 0, and then Li is 100%, which
shows the realization is 100. If all indexes are 0 and di equals 100%, and then Li equals 0 and the
realization is 0. Wik is the weight of Index k in Region i, W is the average weight, and m is the number
of item.
Mark post method advocated by modern corporate management theories is adopted to define the
target values of indexes included in the regional comprehensive technological capability realization
evaluation index system. Those technologically developed countries in the world are defined as mark
post countries, and the target values in these countries are investigated. Finally, advanced and rational
values are defined, in consideration of the development level and feasibility in China. While selecting
mark post countries, we refer to the concept of core economic unit for international competitiveness
presented by the World Economy Forum. The countries in the core economic unit are all OECD
members, except Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Israel. Because a lot of free information for
OECD member countries is available, this essay mainly uses data from OECD countries from 1997 to
2000. Adjustment on the medians from these countries is made to define the target values of relative
numbers and average numbers. The target values of absolute numbers are the revised maximum values
among 31 provinces in China, with reference to the R&D Resources Survey in 2000. The defined index
target values are shows in Tab. 1.
Tab.1
Regional Comprehensive Technological Capability Realization Evaluation Index System & Target
Realization
Ch i n a in 2 0 0 0
OECD
In d e x * * We i gh t [% ]
Ta rge t
S
e
l e ct i on
M AX
Median
Ye a r
M AX
Median
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
5
7
7
7
5
5
4
6
5.5
29.5
305.1
103.19
140.29
2 11 2 3
2034
11 8 11
22.07
12381
7.7
39.7
20.16
10.42
2501
173
2564
3.96
4830
1998
2000
11 8
14.24
4.69
9.90
3.15
30
300
100
140
22000
2100
12000
15
25000
10
6
14.59
0.20
1999
32.18
4.15
10
11
6
3.37
2.56
2.5
6.28
0.60
2000
12
6
11 5 . 8 8
12.97
1999
56.76
29.78
40
13
5
3.49
2.16
2.5
2.77
1.46
2000
14
5
3.65
1.66
2000
2.31
1.79
4.5
15
7
108.05
70.70
50
77.71
3.20
1999
16
5
29.66
15.15
15
9.07
0.15
2000
17
3
8.88
4.20
1998
7.17
5.79
6
18
5.5
17
15
15
9.42
7.09
1997
**1.People involved in technological activities (10000 people)
2.Total technological activity expense (100 million Yuan)
3.Technology market contracting inflow (100 million Yuan)
4.Lateral technology revenue (100 million Yuan)
5.Applied patents
6.High-tech new product development projects
7.Medium or large scaled enterprise technology development projects
8.Ratio of High-tech industry added value to industrial added-value (%)
9 The first industry productivity (Yuan/Person, USD10000/Person)
10.Percentage of high-tech product output in GDP (%)
11.Percentage of R&D funds in GDP (%)
12.Number of technical professionals in every 10000 people
13.Percentage of technology development funds of industrial enterprises in sales revenue (%)
14 Percentage of fiscal technological expense in fiscal expense
15.Number of certified invention patent in every 1 million people in China (piece/one million people)
16.Number of technological essay published outside of China in every one million people (piece/one million
people)
17.Percentage of education expenses in GDP (1999)
18 Average education time of the total population (years)
3. Regional Comprehensive Technological Capability Target Realization
Calculation and Evaluation
Real value and target value of all fundamental indexes are calculated according to the defined
formula, to have the index value and sequencing result. The calculation is made by SPSS11.5.
The comprehensive technological capability target realization of 31 provinces and municipalities in
2000 is calculated and sequenced in Fig.1, based on real values and target values of all indexes.
Fig 1. The Sequence of Comprehensive Technological Capability Target Realization of 31 Provinces and
Municipalities in Mainland China in 2000.
11 9
Tab. 2 lists the realization of comprehensive technological capability target realization of some
provinces and municipalities in 2000.
Tab 2
Regional Comprehensive Technological Capability Target Realization and Sequence of Some
Provinces and Municipalities (18 Indexes) in 2000
In d e x Be i j i n g S h a n gh a Gu a n gd o J i a n gs Li a on i n Ti a n ji n S h a n d o Zh e j i a n S i ch u a S h a a n x i
i
ng
u
g
g
ng
g
n
A*
66.15
57.77
57.15
49.95 38.76
38.55
36.72
34.55
33.25
33.05
Ra n k
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
A* :Comprehensive technological capability target realization
4. Discussion
4.1 Index and Index System
The comprehensive technological capability defined in this essay integrates technological strength,
technological sustainable renovation capability, and technological competitiveness, and it eliminates the
limitation arising from separate understanding on technological strength, technological progress,
technological competitiveness, and technological renovation capability. Few indexes cannot completely
illustrate regional comprehensive technological capability, which enjoys a wide covering of meaning
and extension. Therefore, the index system is composed of 3 indexes at level one, 8 at level 2, and 15 at
level 3, and the 15 indexes at level 3 come from the combined calculation on 55 fundamental indexes.
This system changes the ex parte characters of technological capability separately presented by
technological strength, technological progress, technological competitiveness, and technological
renovation capability.
The 18 quantitative indexes used to sequence regions for comprehensive technological capability
are formed from the index system composed of 53 fundamental indexes at three levels and in four
aspects. The trial calculation results of the two index systems show similar sequence in technological
capability. (By the means of weighting summation method, the sequential dependence(C.Spearman) is
0.946, and the consistency(Kendall) is 0.973. By the means of factor analysis method, the sequential
dependence(C.Spearman) is 0.965 and the consistency(Kendall) is 0.983. ) If there is no huge difference
between the selected index system and index system with a huge number of indexes, the system with
fewer indexes should be adopted for the convenience in collecting fundamental data. That is the reason
why this essay defines the regional comprehensive technological capability target realization system
with fewer indexes. Moreover, this essay analyzes the data in 2000, because it is hard to obtain index
data and China made a survey on R & D resources that provided abundant technological statistic data.
The regions referred in this essay are the 31 provinces and municipalities in China. The essay
adopts indexes on relative number and average number, but not index about absolute number, while
defining the mark post indexes with reference to data from OECD countries. The target values of
absolute numbers are defined according to the technological strength of China. This problem does not
exist for comparison among countries. We wish that professionals could make further study on this
method, because it is hard to define the target values.
4.2 Regional Comprehensive Technological Capability Index Calculation
Integration of single index realization into the regional comprehensive technological capability
realization does not fully comply with the Euclidean distance. Instead, different weights are assigned to
single index realization. It means to have the regional comprehensive technological capability
realization by revised Euclidean distance. By this means, the result is better than that resulting from
unrevised Euclidean distance.
In order to make research comparison, this essay adopts two calculation of the regional
comprehensive technological capability realization and the means of factor analysis method, to sequence
the capabilities composed of 18 selected quantitative indexes. Both methods conclude that the sequential
dependence(C.Spearman) is 0.990 and the consistency(Kendall) is 0.995.The weight assignment to
single index realization is reasonable. Furthermore, this essay considers that the weight assignment shall
reflect the policy preference of the researchers, and is not always in accordance with the results of factor
120
analysis.
4.3 Calculation Result Application
The regional comprehensive technological capability realization indexes may show the positions of
all regions and the improvement of capability. It may avoid fetishistic optimism for upgraded rank and
sad complaints for downgraded rank. The index system, illustrating the absolute distance between
capability and target, may compare the regional comprehensive technological capability in China with
that in other countries to learn the difference directly. In the epoch of economy globalization and
technology internationalization, this system becomes more instructive. Specifically speaking, the
parallel compassion of index values and sequencing results may find out the positions and differences of
all regions. Comparison of ranks and values of one particular region in different years may show the
change trend and improvement strength. Horizontal, longitudinal, and tridimensional analysis on the
realization indexes may illustrate the interaction of capabilities in all regions. Further comparison and
analysis on single index realization and change may lead to more detailed information for policy
stipulation.
References
[1] Zhejiang municipal area technological capability evaluation research report, Zhejiang municipal area
technological capability evaluation research team, June 1991
[2] Zhao Ke, Fudan University, Research on standards of science and technology modernization,
Science and technology management 2002 (2), P15-18
[3] Data resources: China technology statistic annual 2001, China high-tech industry annual 2002, China
statistic annual 2001, China R & D resources survey information thesauruses by China statistic
publishing house in 2001, Zhejiang R & D resources survey information thesauruses by Zhejiang
university publishing house in 2001
121