Download Gravity Wave Impact on Air Traffic

Gravity Wave Impact on Air Traffic
Observations on 25 January 2010 in the New York City Metropolitan Area
Richard F. Ferris, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA
ATC Problem and Motivation
Weather Synopsis and Gravity Wave
• Exceptionally strong vertical shear of horizontal winds from
surface to cruise flight levels in northeast United States
• Complex low pressure system moved through the Northeast on
25 January 2010
• Severe turbulence and arrival compression into major
New York City metro-area airports
• Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut were in warm
sector and strong draw of southerly wind flow
• Excessive air traffic delays, flight cancellations, diversions,
and airborne holding
• Intense but narrow prefrontal squall line formed suddenly ahead of main
cold front
• Severe weather event was under-forecast for FAA controllers
and managers and led to a severe delay of aircraft into
regions of suspected hazards
• Gravity or buoyancy wave – coincident with squall line – was detected in
Doppler velocity field. Impacted EWR/TEB airports at 1717 UTC and LGA
at 1741 UTC; overhead JFK airport at 1753 UTC
• Incorporate state-of-the-art weather information to improve air
traffic safety, efficiency, and decision making
FAA National Traffic Management Log
Numerical Model Forecasts and ATM Decision Support
• NOAA ESRL High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model accurately forecast prefrontal squall line 6 hours in advance
Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) VIL
– 3 km resolution; 0–15 hr forecast updated hourly
• FAA Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) showed accurate 2–8 hr forecast location of north-south line, but intensity
and extent off slightly
– 3 km resolution interpolated to 1 km; 2–8 hr forecast updated every 15 min
• FAA Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) verified, although VIL intensity was underestimated
1200 UTC
1500 UTC
1800 UTC
– 1 km resolution; 0–2 hr forecast updated every 5 min
2100 UTC
• Extensive set of supplemental HRRR forecast output fields extremely valuable for real-time decision making and post-event analysis
• Sudden shift in wind direction and increase in speed resulted in
numerous wind shear and turbulence reports
– Not currently incorporated into any operational forecast
NWS Surface Charts
HRRR Model Forecast (from 1200Z Model Run)
• Wave propagated from west through east across most of New York
TRACON airspace, impacting arrival and departure traffic for many hours
1208Z DCC/NE. N90 requested a LGA GDP at 1100 due to winds, ground and aloft. The winds aloft are 16060 knots at 2000 feet creating
significant compression issues.
Composite Reflectivity 5 hr Forecast
Squall Line
To optimize safety and minimize avoidable delay, wind forecasts
must be surgical in predicting time, space, and severity of event
and translated directly into explicit ATM impact predictions for
objective CDM planning. Envision a 3-stage approach.
1455Z DCC/N90/LGA...lengthy discussion on plan for LGA. There have been no arrivals for about an hour due to strong/gusty winds.
1531Z ZDC requests ZNY to accept EWR arrivals via Jetway 220; severe to extreme turbulence in the ARD route.
SPECI
METAR
SPECI
METAR
SPECI
METAR
SPECI
METAR
SPECI
SPECI
METAR
SPECI
METAR
SPECI
SPECI
METAR
1800Z DCC/NE N90 advised for JFK...front overhead, several go-arounds, multiple diverts.
1849Z DCC/NE JFK on the 22’S. Asked airlines to consider alternates ahead of time as the situation looks very unlikely that we can land
what is in the air.
1855Z N90/TMU Shift Summary:- WX:IFR/MVFR/VFR/Very high winds. Comments: Extremely difficult Monday day shift. Weather
system from the south moved along coastline and thru N90. Winds out of the south sustained 30 with gusts to almost 50 knots. Many goarounds at all the airports and many diversions due to excessive airbirne holding and not enough A/C landing. Many ground stops and starts,
ground delay programs (GDPs) and adjusted GDPs and miles-in-trial (MIT) and increased MIT all trying to keep up with this weather system
that the TAF’S could not keep up with. Many cancellations due to backlog of delays and diversions. ...we were operating with single runways
al LGA and extremely high winds at both the other two with A/C refusing to depart with the stated winds.
Pilot Reports (FIREPs) of Turbulance 1519z–1642z
NY Center
NY TRACON
Departures
Arrivals
FAA Ground Delay and Ground Stop Summary
Runway Configuration for JFK From 1/25/2010 To 1/25/2010
Actual
Cap
Actual
ADR
Departures
AAR
Arrivals
14
48
13
34
5
48
7
34
0
48
1
34
1
48
0
34
7
48
0
34
15
46
3
34
23
38
15
34
26
38
25
34
19
38
37
34
10
38
39
34
10
38
21
34
38
15
13
34
38
12
15
34
37
21
15
33
36
32
10
32
36
24
19
32
36
35
20
32
36
36
22
32
36
30
31
46
36
34
34
50
36
35
44
50
36
29
29
50
48
23
30
34
48
26
23
34
Weather
Conditions
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
I
I
I
I
V
I
I
V
I
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
Runway Configuration for LGA From 1/25/2010 To 1/25/2010
Actual
Cap
Actual
ADR
Departures
AAR
Arrivals
21
40
3
44
4
40
3
44
44
3
40
0
44
0
40
0
44
0
40
0
44
0
40
1
44
11
40
31
34
16
33
17
30
11
30
15
30
9
30
34
30
3
30
14
30
1
30
2
30
1
30
1
34
3
34
3
34
10
34
3
.
34
24
34
6
34
33
34
15
34
27
34
26
34
31
34
26
34
28
34
31
34
40
34
40
34
26
34
32
34
21
34
7
34
23
34
2
Weather
Conditions
V
V
V
V
V
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
V
I
I
V
V
V
V
V
V
Local
Time
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Configuration
22L, 22R | 22R
22L, 22R | 22R
22L, 22R | 22R
22L, 22R | 22R
22L, 22R | 22R
13L | 13R
13L | 13R
13L | 13R
13L | 13R
13L | 13R
13L | 13R
13L | 13R
13L | 13R
22L, 22R | 22R
22L, 22R | 22R
22L, 22R | 22R
22L, 22R | 22R
22L, 22R | 22R
22L, 22R, 31L | 22R, 31L
22L, 22R, 31L | 22R, 31L
22L, 22R, 31L | 22R, 31L
22L, 22R, 31L | 22R, 31L
22L, 22R | 22R
22L, 22R | 22R
Local
Time
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Configuration
13, 22 | 13
13, 22 | 13
13, 22 | 13
13, 22 | 13
13, 22 | 13
13, 22 | 13
13, 22 | 13
13 | 13
13 | 13
13 | 13
13 | 13
13 | 13
13 | 13
22 | 13
22 | 13
22 | 13
22 | 13
22 | 31
22 | 31
22 | 31
22 | 31
22 | 31
22 | 31
22 | 31
GDP Daily Summary 1/25/2010
ADVN
(Program Rate: Current plus 2 hours)
GDP Daily Summary 1/25/2010
AIRPORT INITIATIVE SENT TIME ACTUAL TIMES
SCHED TIMES
REASON
ADVN
37
EWR
GDP (28)
1331
1530–1800
1530–0459
70
EWR
GDP (25)
1756
1800–2100
1800–0659
84
EWR
GDP (30)
1957
2100–0155
2100–0459
WEATHER / WIND
WEATHER / WIND
54
EWR
CDM GS
1602
1602–1644
1602–1700
WEATHER / WIND
62
EWR
CDM GS
1644
1644–1800
1644–1800
WEATHER / WIND
55
HPN
CDM GS
1610
1610–1705
1610–1715
WEATHER / WIND
97
EWR
WEATHER / WIND
63
HPN
CDM GS
1705
1705–1800
1705–1800
WEATHER / WIND
71
HPN
CNX
1801
1801–1801
1801–1801
NF
GS
1551
1551–1639
1551–1700
AREA
AIRPORT INITIATIVE SENT TIME ACTUAL TIMES
2239
0300–0155
0300–0359
8
EWR
GDP CNX
155
0155–0155
0155–0155
49
JFK
GDP (35)
1547
1800–1800
1800–0359
WEATHER / WIND
60
JFK
GDP (30)
1641
1800–1942
1800–0359
WEATHER / WIND
83
JFK
GDP (34)
1942
1942–2135
1942–0359
WEATHER / WIND
92
JFK
GDP
2135
2135–0015
2135–0359
VISIBILITY
50
JFK
GDP (36)
NF
SCHED TIMES
REASON
WEATHER / WIND
CDM GS
1013
1009
1006
1002
999
996
992
989
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11noon1
2
3
4
5
6 7
8
2
JFK
15
0015–0015
0015–0015
NF
58
JFK
GS CNX
1639
1639–1639
1639–1639
LGA
GDP (30)
1129
1200–1240
1200–0414
WEATHER / WIND
64
JFK
CDM GS
1707
1707–1749
1707–1800
WEATHER / WIND
29
LGA
GDP (25)
1240
1240–1601
1240–0459
WEATHER / WIND
69
JFK
CDM GS
1749
1749–1834
1749–1900
WEATHER / WIND
52
LGA
GDP (0)
1601
1601–2052
1601–0759
WEATHER / WIND
74
JFK
CDM GS
1834
1834–1907
1834–1930
90
LGA
GDP (32)
2052
2052–2159
2052–0459
WEATHER / WIND
79
JFK
CDM GS
1907
1907–2000
1907–2000
94
LGA
GDP (44)
2159
2159–2357
2159–0359
WEATHER / WIND
99
LGA
GDP CNX
2357
2357–2357
2357–2357
NF
91
JFK
CDM GS
2054
2054–2145
2054–2145
39
TEB
GDP (8)
1340
1340–1939
1340–1959
WEATHER / WIND
25
LGA
CDM GS
1207
1207–1300
1207–1300
82
TEB
GDP (20)
1939
1939–2100
1939–0059
WEATHER / WIND
36
LGA
CDM GS
1320
1320–1404
1320–1415
WEATHER / WIND
89
TEB
GDP (15)
2044
2100–2155
2100–0159
WEATHER / WIND
41
LGA
CDM GS
1404
1404–1500
1404–1500
WEATHER / WIND
93
TEB
GDP CNX
2155
2155–2155
2155–2155
NF
45
LGA
CDM GS
1502
1502–1551
1502–1600
WEATHER / WIND
1800 UTC
2100 UTC
Valid 17Z
26/0000 UTC
Composite Reflectivity 6 hr Forecast
JFK Surface Wind Plot
JFK Terminal Aerodrome Forecast
TAF AMD KJFK 251431Z 2515/2618 15030G40KT 3SM -RA BR SCT007 BKN015 OVC025 WS020/17060KT
TEMPO 2515/2517 1SM RA BR OVC007
FM251700 16032G45KT 1SM RA BR OVC007 WS020/16070KT
TEMPO 2517/2520 1/2SM +RA FG OVC003
FM252000 21018G25KT 5SM -SHRA BR OVC020
FM252200 25012KT P6SM SCT020 SCT050
FM260600 25010KT P6SM BKN050
FM261200 25015G22KT P6SM SCT050
Wind Speed
Gust
Wind Dir
Valid 18Z
12Z HRRR 6 hr
260
35
240
30
220
25
180
200
160
20
140
120
15
GS
GS CNX
1551–1700
1639–1639
AREA
NF
1214
1214–1302
1214–1315
WEATHER / WIND
1302
1551
1639
1302–1415
1302–1415
WEATHER / WIND
Downdraft Velocity
Storm Motion
Helicity
17Z CIWS 1hr
100
1629 UTC
1629 UTC
1647 UTC
1647 UTC
1705 UTC
Sea-level Pressure
Precipitation
1705 UTC
60
Valid 18Z
Valid 18Z
Valid 18Z
ETC...
18Z VIL Truth
40
20
40
35 30
0
0
UTC Time of JFK METAR Observation
Translation of Wind Forecast into
Path-based Shear Forecast
Eastern Long Island Skew-T Soundings
Aircraft Trajectories
1717 UTC
1717 UTC
1735 UTC
1735 UTC
1753 UTC
1753 UTC
Intermediate ‘WX’
Translation
2
• Compression/expansion of arrival flows and aircraft encounters
with hazardous turbulence significantly impact airport capacity
– Computes headwind/tailwind along path of NY arrival corridors
into airports
3
– Indicates where, along path, significant gains or losses will
be experienced
251100Z
251200Z
251300Z
251800Z
251900Z
1811 UTC
1811 UTC
Gravity Wave Train
252000Z
1823 UTC
1823 UTC
KOKX WSR-88D Velocity/Spectrum Width
1853 UTC
1853 UTC
Wind Shear and Microburst Detections
– Excessive gains
lead to compression
of aircraft along
arrival routes
1753 UTC
252200Z
252300Z
1817 UTC
1755 UTC
1755 UTC
1753 UTC
Color-coded route segments:
RED
Accumulated loss ≥ = 20 kts/kft
BLUE
Accumulated gain ≥ = 20 kts/kft
BLACK Moderate loss or gain
1 kft interval headwinds/tailwinds (kts)
Accumulated loss or gain (kts)
Arrival selector window toggle
Configure window toggle
1759 UTC
252359Z
Arrivals
This work was sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) under Air Force Contract FA8721-05-C-0002. Opinions, interpretations, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author and are not necessarily endorsed by the United States Government.
Explicit ATM – Impact
Guidance for Strategic CDM
• None, Low, Medium, Severe Compression
• Anticipated AAR; Likelihood of GDP
• Anticipated Period of Significant Shear Event
in Terminal
Tactical Management
of Strategic Plans
• ITWS
• PSD
TDWR
CIWS
PIREPs
TAFs
Arrival trajectory and runway selector
(JFK 13L)
Valid time (e.g., forecast or current)
Departures
Final ATM
Translation
• Wind-Defined Runway Configuration
Path-based Shear Display
(Developed with NY/NJ Port Authority Support)
– Excessive losses
lead to wider than
desirable spacing
between aircraft
252100Z
Derived Meteorological Conditions
Pertinent to ATM Wind Event Issues
•Synoptic wind speed / direction
• Wind “Gustiness”
• Frontal location
• Wind shifts
• Vertical shear
• “Thin-line” convection
3–12 hr Forecasts, in 1 hr Increments, of
• Path-based Shear Display plots location of the arrival paths and
highlights path segments where excessive gains and losses have
been calculated
251400Z
300 MB Jet Stream
251700Z
Composite Reflectivity
80
5
THE TERMINAL
1551–1639
1639–1639
CDM GS
CDM GS
12Z CoSPA 6 hr
10
WEATHER / WIND
TEB
0–1 km Shear
280
DUE TO
TEB
Updraft Velocity
300
40
TURBULENCE IN
LGA
LGA
Squall Line
HRRR/CoSPA/CIWS
320
WEATHER / WIND
26
Suite of HRRR Forecast Fields
18Z VIL Truth
360
340
45
VISIBILITY
34
Initial Input
Green = Lgt – Mod Rain, Dark Green = Heavy Rain
50
WEATHER / LOW
50
58
17Z VIL Truth
HRRR Model Forecast (from 1200Z Model Run)
Evolution of Gravity Wave across New York TRACON as Sensed by JFK TDWR
NF
WEATHER / WIND
1500 UTC
9 10 11
THE TERMINAL
22
1
in Hg
Barometric Pressure
29.9
29.8
29.7
29.6
29.5
29.4
29.3
29.2
Midnight
1
DUE TO
TURBULENCE IN
WEATHER / LOW
GDP CNX
in Hg
0:00
0:30
1:00
1:30
2:00
2:30
3:00
3:30
4:00
4:30
5:00
5:30
6:00
6:30
7:00
7:30
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:00
10:30
11:00
11:30
12:00
12:30
13:00
13:30
14:00
14:30
15:00
15:30
16:00
16:30
17:00
17:30
18:00
18:30
19:00
19:30
20:00
20:30
21:00
21:30
22:00
22:30
23:00
23:30
FAA ASPM Management Reports
251437Z 15028G40KT 1 1/2SM RA BR SCT007 BKN013 OVC022 11/10 A2951 RMK AO2 PK WND 14040/1435 PRESFR
251451Z 14029G37KT 1 1/2SM R04R/6000VP6000FT RA BR FEW008 OVC013 11/10 A2948 RMK AO2 PK WND 14040/1435 PRESFR SLP983
251509Z 15025G35KT 1 1/2SM R04R/6000VP6000FT RA BR BKN006 OVC015 11/10 A2946 RMK AO2 PK WND 15035/1500 PRESFR
251551Z 15028G38KT 2SM -RA BR BKN006 OVC018 11/10 A2941 RMK AO2 PK WND 15040/1524 SFC VIS 2 1/2 SLP958
251621Z 15029G39KT 1 1/2SM R04R/5500VP6000FT RA BR OVC006 11/10 A2936 RMK A02 PK WND 15040/1559 TWR VIS 2 PRESFR
251651Z 15029G41KT 1SM R04R/4500V6000FT +RA BR OVC006 11/11 A2933 RMK AO2 PK WND 16041/1646 PRESFR SLP931
251742Z 16036G45KT 3/4SM R04R/6000VP6000FT +RA BR OVC006 12/11 A2926 RMK AO2 PK WND 16045/1742
251751Z 17034G45KT 3/4SM R04R/4000V6000FT +RA BR BKN006 OVC022 12/11 A2935 RMK AO2 PK WND 16045/1742 PRESRR SLP939
251806Z 19027G36KT 2SM R04R/2200VP6000FT RA BR BKN008 OVC045 11/11 A2931 RMK AO2 PK WND 24043/1756 CIG 006V010
251819Z 19024G34KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR SCT005 BKN022 OVC045 11/10 A2930 RMK AO2 PK WND 24043/1756
251851Z 17024G34KT 2 1/2SM RA BR FEW005 BKN026 OVC047 11/11 A2927 RMK AO2 PK WND 24043/1756 SFC VIS 3 SLP910
251940Z 18026G32KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN003 OVC026 10/09 A2927 RMK AO2 PK WND 17036/1918 SFC VIS 4
251951Z 18021G30KT 2 1/2SM BR BKN003 OVC026 10/09 A2927 RMK AO2 PK WND 17036/1918 SFC VIS 4 RAE41 SLP912
252020Z 19016G25KT 1/8SM RO4R/4500VP6000FT BR OVC003 10/09 A2928 RMK AO2 PK WND 19030/1957 SFC VIS 3/4
Thunder
and
lightning
never
reported
at JFK
LGA
252044Z
19016KT 1/8SM
RO4R/1200V2200FT
FG BKN003
09/08 A2927
RMK AO2 PK WND 19030/1957
SFC or
VIS 1/4
252051Z 19020G25KT 1/8SM RO4R/1200V2200FT FG BKN003 BKN030 09/08 A2926 RMK AO2 PK WND 19030/1957 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP908
Wind Direction (Degrees)
ISOLATED
INTERMITTENT
CONTINUOUS
NEG
SMOOTH-LGT
LGT
LGT-MOD
MOD
MOD-SEV
SEV
EXTRM
KJFK
KJFK
KJFK
KJFK
KJFK
KJFK
KJFK
KJFK
KJFK
KJFK
KJFK
KJFK
KJFK
KJFK
KJFK
KJFK
Wind Speed (Knots)
1757Z N90/TMU JFK departures are not departing due to wind.
New York Airspace
JFK Pressure Trace
JFK Surface Observations
1632Z HPN/HPNT PIREP RY 16: H25B reported moderate to severe turbulence, wind shear gain and loss of between 15 and 25 knots.
Wing roll between 30 and 60 degrees.
Quantity display selector
Future Work
• Identify other terminal synoptic wind events at New York
airports and at other major airports, such as ORD, ATL,
and BOS, and make a first order assessment of
“avoidable” delay
• Assess capability of HRRR to forecast other significant
terminal capacity impacts due to winds
444947.ai