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The Correlativity Analysis between Logistics Industry and National Economy Development Shuai Bin1, Sun Chaoyuan2, 1. School of Traffic & Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, P.R.China, 610031; 2. School of Management, University of Electronic & Science Technology of China, P.R.China, 610054. Abstract In this paper, the correlation relationships between logistics industry and national economy is analyzed using econometric method from the quantitative angle. First, the relative correlative index has been designed and defined. Second, the collection way of correlative index has been discussed. Third, the correlative regression model is built. In this model, three functions of correlation model has been researched in detail. The end of this paper is some conclusions about this research. Key words Correlative, Logistics industry, National economy development 1 Introduction Logistics industry is a compressive industry integrating service with equipment to become an entity [1]. Many researches think that the development of logistics industry will drive other industries and the entire national economy distinctly, which has been embodied in these folds: In the first fold, the main body of logistics industry is composed with many nodes and lines to form a network. A stable and efficient logistics network not only cuts the abrasion and transaction costs and using costs on network resources, but also amplifies every factor’s function and promotes the profits of these factors and entire network. For the partners in logistics industry usually coordinate and communicate, the searching fees can be reduced greatly. At the same time, the dual confidence and compromise induced by customization service can also blenches the performance risks [2]. In the second fold, the development of logistics industry can lead to new industry morphology and optimize the industry structure. Logistics industry is the development creature of economy specialization and division of labor, which possesses entire advantage and scale effect. The aggregation of business flow, finance flow, information flow and technology flow arising from the development of industry will give a impulse to the development of tertiary industry. In the last fold, the information technology application in logistics industry is the accelerator of promoting national economy and state competition. However, the correlation relationships between logistics industry and national economy should be analyzed from the quantitative angle. Because this quantitative analysis can provide researchers and practitioners visual impacts on their relationships and its result should be convincing [3]. In this paper, econometrics method has been adopted to quantify their correlation relationships between logistics industry and national economy. 2 Index Design and Data Collection 2.1 Index Design The correlativity analysis between our country’s logistics industry and the national economy development can be unfolded from two folds: one fold is the ratio of total logistics cost on gross domestic product, the other fold is the ratio of added value of logistics industry on gross domestic product. These two scales is the core of this research [4]. The three indicators, i.e. gross domestic product, logistics cost and logistics industry added value, have been selected to make time series analysis [5,6]. From this analysis, the correlative trend of our country’s logistics industry and national economic development can be found. (1) Logistics cost Logistics cost management is an important domain in enterprise. For logistics cost can embody the economic profits of logistics activities visually, it is also a good quantification indicator on logistics economic profit. Logistics cost is defined as the monetary expression of all kinds of consumed labors in the course of products displacement, which can reflect the actual condition of logistics activities using 30 money. Logistics cost can be calculated as the sum of manpower, pecuniary resources and material resource. These resources exist in every stage of material movement such as packaging, loading and unloading, transportation, storage, processing in circulation and logistics information. (2) Gross domestic product The main indicator of national economic evaluation is gross domestic product, called GDP for short. The GDP indicator is the added values tabulation of each product departments, which is the final outcome of all the production activities during some period about one country or a district. (3) Added value of logistics industry The added value of logistics industry reflects the created value of logistics industry during some period, which is also the important share of GDP. The logistics industry has the characteristic of strong penetrability and its statistics index has special meaning. In this industry, the production and management fruits should be recombined in according with its characteristic to be an unattached department. Therefore, the added values of logistics industry can not be added with the added values of existing industries because that will induce repeated calculation. 2.2 Data Collection The logistics industry statistic has the characteristic of wide statistic range and idiographic grouping manner. So collecting the statistic data is not only based on the relative statistic yearbook released from government but also the enterprise or department’s financial data. In this course, the operation data of all the relative industries should be referenced to combine the statistic, finance and operation data. At the same time of collecting existing data, some survey and investigation should be developed so as to realize the output structure of these departments in logistics industry. The purpose of this manner is to calculate the relationship trend between logistics industry and national economics scientifically. 3 Model Building 3.1 General regression model If there exist correlative relationships between these variables x1 , x 2 , L , x p and stochastic variable y , it means that when x1 , x 2 , L , x p is evaluated, y has the corresponding probability distribution [7] . The probability model between stochastic variable y and the relative variables x1 , x 2 , L , x p is (1) y = f ( x1 , x 2 L , x p ) + ε Where, y is explained variable (dependent variable or endogenous variable), x1 , x 2 , L , x p is explaining variable (independent variable or exogenous variable), y = f ( x1 , x 2 L , x p ) is represented for the determinancy relation of universal variable x1 , x 2 , L , x p , ε is random error. 3.2 Building correlation model 1. The development trend model of logistics industry Increasing the volume of freight and getting up the turnover velocity are critical to raise the operating velocity and quality of national economic. Therefore, we can build the volume trend model of freight to reflect the development trend of logistics industry. With the method of least square, the volume trend model of freight is (2) yˆ = f (t ) Where, ŷ is the volume of freight and t is time. 2. The volume regression model of freight on GDP We can determine the correlation degree between volume of freight and GDP by analyzing their correlation coefficient. At the same time, we can reflect the pull effect of logistics on national economics by building a volume regression model of freight on GDP. The volume regression model of freight on GDP is 31 yˆ = g ( x ) (3) Where, ŷ is GDP and x is the volume of freight. 3. The logistics cost regression model on GDP The development of logistics industry will reduce the logistics cost greatly. The social logistics, especially the third party logistics, will also cut down the total social logistics cost enormously and reduce the midterm consumption to raise the economic level of total society. Therefore, we should need analyze the relationship between logistics cost and GDP. At the same time, we can build the logistics cost regression model on GDP to reflect the dual relationships. The logistics cost regression model on GDP is yˆ = u ( x ) (4) Where, ŷ is GDP and x is logistics cost. 3.3 Assumption on time trend 1. Time trend assumption on the proportion relation between logistics cost and GDP At present, the proportion of logistics costs of developed country on GDP is approximately 10%. The proportion of logistics costs of moderated developed country such as Korea on its GDP is approximately 16%. Based on the calculation of International Monetary Fund, that of our country is about 25%. Along with the progress of science & technology and raise of social productive force, the total logistics cost should be cut gradually compared with the total value of national economy. This degree of reducing course is relative with the development level of economic, science & technology and Comprehensive national strength closely. The faster is the reducing velocity of total logistics cost, higher is this country’s development level of national economy. 2. Time trend assumption on the proportion relation between added value of logistics industry and GDP The advent of electronic commerce has driven the commercialization of logistics information, the development of logistics information database and bar code, the computerization of logistics information processing and the digitization of logistics information storage. Of all these aspects, the popularization of network technology can especially provide favorable environment for logistics latticing. The emerging third party logistics mode has the advantages of resource, scale and scope so as to make logistics industry become a high-growing industry in national economy. Hence, the ratio of added value of logistics industry on GDP should take on upward trend with the development of electronic commerce and third party logistics. With the advance of national strength, the ratio of added value of logistics industry on GDP will be greater. Lack of space forbids the case analysis in this paper. In the practical research, we had viewed Chengdu city, the capital of Sichuan province, as a sample to analyze the correlation relationship between Chengdu’s logistics industry and its total economy. As a result, a satisfying conclusion had been gained. From the case of Chengdu city, we can find some rules as showed in the following section. 4 Conclusions (1) When collecting data, we should assure the sample data representative and credible. The statistics sample should be selected in the districts where logistics industry has fast development and whose scale is enough. In addition, the statistics index can be adjusted properly according with the sample district’s actual conditions. (2) Some correlation exists in the relationship between the development of logistics industry and national economy. The logistics industry has distinct pull effect on national economy. Especially in recent years, the development of this industry is crucial to the high-speed promotion on GDP of national economy. (3) With the development of logistics industry, the contribution of logistics industry to national economy will be more distinguished. The total logistics cost will be towards descendent trends and the ratio of logistics industry’s added value on national economy GDP will be more and more. 32 References [1] Jiang Lingxiang, Xu Guibin. The Comparing Research of China’s Logistics Industry on National Economy[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 8(2004) , p48~51. (In Chinese) [2] Li Guanlin. The Analysis of Input and Output on China’s Logistics Industry[J]. China Circulation Economic, 6(2001) , p15~18. (In Chinese) [3] Gu Yongfen, He Jidong. The Promotion Effect of the Development of Logistics Industry on the Development of District’s Economy[J]. Logistics Technology, 6(2003), p1~3. (In Chinese) [4] Li Li, Zhang Jianhua, Zhou Haiyan. 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