Download The Correlativity Analysis between Logistics Industry and National Economy Development

The Correlativity Analysis between Logistics Industry and National
Economy Development
Shuai Bin1, Sun Chaoyuan2,
1. School of Traffic & Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, P.R.China, 610031;
2. School of Management, University of Electronic & Science Technology of China, P.R.China, 610054.
Abstract In this paper, the correlation relationships between logistics industry and national economy is
analyzed using econometric method from the quantitative angle. First, the relative correlative index has
been designed and defined. Second, the collection way of correlative index has been discussed. Third,
the correlative regression model is built. In this model, three functions of correlation model has been
researched in detail. The end of this paper is some conclusions about this research.
Key words Correlative, Logistics industry, National economy development
1 Introduction
Logistics industry is a compressive industry integrating service with equipment to become an
entity [1]. Many researches think that the development of logistics industry will drive other industries and
the entire national economy distinctly, which has been embodied in these folds:
In the first fold, the main body of logistics industry is composed with many nodes and lines to form
a network. A stable and efficient logistics network not only cuts the abrasion and transaction costs and
using costs on network resources, but also amplifies every factor’s function and promotes the profits of
these factors and entire network. For the partners in logistics industry usually coordinate and
communicate, the searching fees can be reduced greatly. At the same time, the dual confidence and
compromise induced by customization service can also blenches the performance risks [2].
In the second fold, the development of logistics industry can lead to new industry morphology and
optimize the industry structure. Logistics industry is the development creature of economy
specialization and division of labor, which possesses entire advantage and scale effect. The aggregation
of business flow, finance flow, information flow and technology flow arising from the development of
industry will give a impulse to the development of tertiary industry.
In the last fold, the information technology application in logistics industry is the accelerator of
promoting national economy and state competition.
However, the correlation relationships between logistics industry and national economy should be
analyzed from the quantitative angle. Because this quantitative analysis can provide researchers and
practitioners visual impacts on their relationships and its result should be convincing [3]. In this paper,
econometrics method has been adopted to quantify their correlation relationships between logistics
industry and national economy.
2 Index Design and Data Collection
2.1 Index Design
The correlativity analysis between our country’s logistics industry and the national economy
development can be unfolded from two folds: one fold is the ratio of total logistics cost on gross
domestic product, the other fold is the ratio of added value of logistics industry on gross domestic
product. These two scales is the core of this research [4].
The three indicators, i.e. gross domestic product, logistics cost and logistics industry added value,
have been selected to make time series analysis [5,6]. From this analysis, the correlative trend of our
country’s logistics industry and national economic development can be found.
(1) Logistics cost
Logistics cost management is an important domain in enterprise. For logistics cost can embody the
economic profits of logistics activities visually, it is also a good quantification indicator on logistics
economic profit. Logistics cost is defined as the monetary expression of all kinds of consumed labors in
the course of products displacement, which can reflect the actual condition of logistics activities using
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money. Logistics cost can be calculated as the sum of manpower, pecuniary resources and material
resource. These resources exist in every stage of material movement such as packaging, loading and
unloading, transportation, storage, processing in circulation and logistics information.
(2) Gross domestic product
The main indicator of national economic evaluation is gross domestic product, called GDP for short.
The GDP indicator is the added values tabulation of each product departments, which is the final
outcome of all the production activities during some period about one country or a district.
(3) Added value of logistics industry
The added value of logistics industry reflects the created value of logistics industry during some
period, which is also the important share of GDP. The logistics industry has the characteristic of strong
penetrability and its statistics index has special meaning. In this industry, the production and
management fruits should be recombined in according with its characteristic to be an unattached
department. Therefore, the added values of logistics industry can not be added with the added values of
existing industries because that will induce repeated calculation.
2.2 Data Collection
The logistics industry statistic has the characteristic of wide statistic range and idiographic
grouping manner. So collecting the statistic data is not only based on the relative statistic yearbook
released from government but also the enterprise or department’s financial data. In this course, the
operation data of all the relative industries should be referenced to combine the statistic, finance and
operation data. At the same time of collecting existing data, some survey and investigation should be
developed so as to realize the output structure of these departments in logistics industry. The purpose of
this manner is to calculate the relationship trend between logistics industry and national economics
scientifically.
3 Model Building
3.1 General regression model
If there exist correlative relationships between these variables x1 , x 2 , L , x p and stochastic
variable y , it means that when x1 , x 2 , L , x p is evaluated, y has the corresponding probability
distribution
[7]
. The probability model between stochastic variable y and the relative variables
x1 , x 2 , L , x p is
(1)
y = f ( x1 , x 2 L , x p ) + ε
Where, y is explained variable (dependent variable or endogenous variable), x1 , x 2 , L , x p is
explaining variable (independent variable or exogenous variable), y = f ( x1 , x 2 L , x p ) is represented
for the determinancy relation of universal variable x1 , x 2 , L , x p ,
ε
is random error.
3.2 Building correlation model
1. The development trend model of logistics industry
Increasing the volume of freight and getting up the turnover velocity are critical to raise the
operating velocity and quality of national economic. Therefore, we can build the volume trend model of
freight to reflect the development trend of logistics industry.
With the method of least square, the volume trend model of freight is
(2)
yˆ = f (t )
Where, ŷ is the volume of freight and t is time.
2. The volume regression model of freight on GDP
We can determine the correlation degree between volume of freight and GDP by analyzing their
correlation coefficient. At the same time, we can reflect the pull effect of logistics on national
economics by building a volume regression model of freight on GDP.
The volume regression model of freight on GDP is
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yˆ = g ( x )
(3)
Where, ŷ is GDP and x is the volume of freight.
3. The logistics cost regression model on GDP
The development of logistics industry will reduce the logistics cost greatly. The social logistics,
especially the third party logistics, will also cut down the total social logistics cost enormously and
reduce the midterm consumption to raise the economic level of total society. Therefore, we should need
analyze the relationship between logistics cost and GDP. At the same time, we can build the logistics
cost regression model on GDP to reflect the dual relationships.
The logistics cost regression model on GDP is
yˆ = u ( x )
(4)
Where, ŷ is GDP and x is logistics cost.
3.3 Assumption on time trend
1. Time trend assumption on the proportion relation between logistics cost and GDP
At present, the proportion of logistics costs of developed country on GDP is approximately 10%.
The proportion of logistics costs of moderated developed country such as Korea on its GDP is
approximately 16%. Based on the calculation of International Monetary Fund, that of our country is
about 25%. Along with the progress of science & technology and raise of social productive force, the
total logistics cost should be cut gradually compared with the total value of national economy. This
degree of reducing course is relative with the development level of economic, science & technology and
Comprehensive national strength closely. The faster is the reducing velocity of total logistics cost,
higher is this country’s development level of national economy.
2. Time trend assumption on the proportion relation between added value of logistics industry and
GDP
The advent of electronic commerce has driven the commercialization of logistics information, the
development of logistics information database and bar code, the computerization of logistics
information processing and the digitization of logistics information storage. Of all these aspects, the
popularization of network technology can especially provide favorable environment for logistics
latticing. The emerging third party logistics mode has the advantages of resource, scale and scope so as
to make logistics industry become a high-growing industry in national economy. Hence, the ratio of
added value of logistics industry on GDP should take on upward trend with the development of
electronic commerce and third party logistics. With the advance of national strength, the ratio of added
value of logistics industry on GDP will be greater.
Lack of space forbids the case analysis in this paper. In the practical research, we had viewed
Chengdu city, the capital of Sichuan province, as a sample to analyze the correlation relationship
between Chengdu’s logistics industry and its total economy. As a result, a satisfying conclusion had
been gained. From the case of Chengdu city, we can find some rules as showed in the following section.
4 Conclusions
(1) When collecting data, we should assure the sample data representative and credible. The
statistics sample should be selected in the districts where logistics industry has fast development and
whose scale is enough. In addition, the statistics index can be adjusted properly according with the
sample district’s actual conditions.
(2) Some correlation exists in the relationship between the development of logistics industry and
national economy. The logistics industry has distinct pull effect on national economy. Especially in
recent years, the development of this industry is crucial to the high-speed promotion on GDP of national
economy.
(3) With the development of logistics industry, the contribution of logistics industry to national
economy will be more distinguished. The total logistics cost will be towards descendent trends and the
ratio of logistics industry’s added value on national economy GDP will be more and more.
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