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Economics 3818-4 Summer 1994 INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMIC STATISTICS WITH COMPUTER APPLICATIONS Class Time: M-F 2:10pm-3:40pm Geol. 311 Instructor: Professor Frank Hsiao , Office: Economics Building 107 Office Hours: MWF 3:45pm-5:00pm; Office Phone: 492-7908 Textbooks: Lee, Cheng F. , Statistics for Business and Financial Economics, D .C. Heath and Co. MA: Lexington, 1993. Hsiao, Frank S.T., Statistics Laboratory Manual. Objectives: The purpose of this class is to introduce the basic ideas of statistical and quantitative reasoning and techniques used in economics. Topics include elements of descriptive statistics, price indexes, probability, tests of hypotheses including t and F tests, regression with one or more predictors, and correlation. The tutorial sessions develop students' ability in using spreadsheets for organizing data for modeling and presentation, and using some statistical computer package. Students are required to attend all lectures and recitations . They are expected to read the . assigned reading materials or chapters prior to the lecture and complete their assignments before the recitation. The tutorial discussions will be based on the topics related to the materials in the preceding lectures, and will be in the form of examples, problem solving, and discussions, etc. Students must also register for one of the recitation sections associated with this class. Section 201 202 Time 12:30pm-2:00pm 12:30pm-2:00pm Day MW TR Classroom Econ 205 Econ 205 Enrollment Limit 34 35 Computer Applications Microcomputer Lab: Economics Building, Room 7; Norlin Library Statistics Laboratory Dates and Times: to be announced in class Objectives: Introduction to the use of Microcomputer. Quatro Pro spreadsheets software program, MiniTab or TSP software package. Instruction for each computer exercise/project will be given in class. Students who are interested in acquiring more knowledge in microcomputers and regression analysis are encouraged to take Econ 4818, Intro to Econometrics or Econ 4838, Microcomputer Applications in Economics. Note: Check your final exam schedule during the first week of the semester. If you are concerned about the possibility of taking three or more final exams on the same day, please make any desired schedule adjustment during the drop-add period. I. Course Outline Part I - Descriptive Statistics 1 7/12 Ch. 1,2 Introduction, Statistical Data Collection 2 7/ 13 Ch. 3 Frequency Distributions and Data Analysis 3 7/14 Ch. 4 Measures of Center Location and Dispersion of a Distribution 4 7/ 18 Ch. 13 Simple Linear Regression and the Correlation Coefficients (13.3, 13.5, 13.6) Part II - Probability and Important Distributions 5 7/19 Ch. 5 Probability Concepts and Their Analysis 6 7/20 Ch. 6 Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions 7 7/21 Ch. 7 The Normal and Lognormal Distributions 8 7/22 Ch. 8 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 9 7/25 Ch. 9 Other Continuous Distributions and Moments for Distributions Part III - Statistical Inferences Based on Samples 10 7/27 Ch. 10 Estimation and Statistical Quality Control 7/28' (Thurs)' 11 7/29 Ch. 11 Hypothesis Testing Part IV - Regression and Correlation: Relating Two or More Variables 12 8/1 Ch. 13 Simple Linear Regression and the Correlation Coefficient 13 8/2 Ch. 14 Simple Linear Regression and Correlation: Analyses and Applications 14 8/4 Ch. 15 Multiple Linear Regression 15 8/8 Ch. 16 Other Topics in Applied Regression Analysis Part V - Selected Topics in Statistical Analysis for Business and Economics 16 8/ 10 Ch. 18 Time-Series: Analysis , Model , and Forecasting 17 8/ 11 Ch. 19 Index Numbers and Stock Market Indexes . 8/12. (l?ri) the Final Tes~ (150 pts.,..Comp~hensive) 2 r II. Chapter Exercises, Recitation Exercises, and Microcomputer Exercises: a. Each homework chapter and each recitation exercise has the maximum of 10 points . The microcomputer term paper has the maximum of 60 points . No credits for late homework or exercises. b. Occasionally , extra-credit exercises will be given in the class. III. Semester Grading : Semester grades consist of three parts: Exam scores (80%) , Homework and Tutorial Exercise scores (15 %), and Quizzes (given in regular and tutorial) (5 %) . Probable cutoff points are in the vicinity of 90% (A-), 80% (B-) , 70% (C-), 60% (D-); some curving may be used. IV. General Remarks V. 1. Please attend the classes regularly. We expect every student to participate in all classes and recitations. 2. Test dates are firm . Please prepare for the tests long before the test dates. 3. If you are going to miss or have missed an exam, hand in an explanatory statement and documentation to the instructor or call the instructor for approval of excused absence within 24 hours after the test time. Otherwise, no make-up test and a zero grade will be given to unexcused absences for exams . 4. Please come to talk with (or call) the instructor about any problems related to the course. General References: Becker, W.E. and D.L. Hamett, Business and Economics Statistics with Computer Applications Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1987. Harnett, D.L. and J.L. Murphy, 1985, Statistical Analysis for Business and Economics, 3rd ed. (Addison-Wesley, Reading MA). Kilpatrick, M., 1987, Business Statistics Using Lotus 1-2-3 (John Wiley & Sons, New York). Kohler, H. , 1988, Essentials of Statistics (Scott, Foresman and Company, Glenview, Illinois) . Mansfield, E., 1987, Statistics for Business and Economics - Methods and Applications, 3rd ed. (Norton and Co., New York). Mirer, T.W., 1988, Economic Statistics and Econometrics, 2nd ed. (Macmillan, New York) . Salvatore, D. , 1982, Theory and Problem of Statistics and Econometrics, Schaum's Outline Series in Economics (McGraw-Hill, New York). Wonnacott, T .H. and R.J. Wonnacott, 1984, Introductory Statistics for Business and Economics, 3rd ed. (John Wiley and Sons, New York) . VI. Some Statistical Data Sources: President's Council of Economic Advisers, 1989, Economic Report of the President, each year, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D .C. Statistical Abstract of the United States, each year, U.S . Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 3 The following Examination R_ .:s will be strictly enforced. 1. Spread the chairs - you should not be too close to each other. 2. Put books in front under the blackboard, out of reach. 3. Use only the sheets of paper distributed to you in class. Do not use your own paper for tests and calculations. 4. Hand in all of the test papers and materials you have used in the test. Write "scrap" at the upper right corner of the paper if it does not contain your answers. 5. Make sure to number the questions clearly and write your name on each page of your test sheets. 6. No students are allowed to leave the classroom during the test. Please go to the washroom before the test starts. 4