Download ECON 3818-004 Introduction to Economic Statistics

Economics 3818-4
Summer 1994
INTRODUCTION TO
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
WITH COMPUTER APPLICATIONS
Class Time:
M-F 2:10pm-3:40pm
Geol. 311
Instructor:
Professor Frank Hsiao , Office: Economics Building 107
Office Hours: MWF 3:45pm-5:00pm; Office Phone: 492-7908
Textbooks:
Lee, Cheng F. , Statistics for Business and Financial Economics, D .C. Heath and Co. MA:
Lexington, 1993.
Hsiao, Frank S.T., Statistics Laboratory Manual.
Objectives:
The purpose of this class is to introduce the basic ideas of statistical and quantitative reasoning
and techniques used in economics. Topics include elements of descriptive statistics, price
indexes, probability, tests of hypotheses including t and F tests, regression with one or more
predictors, and correlation. The tutorial sessions develop students' ability in using
spreadsheets for organizing data for modeling and presentation, and using some statistical
computer package.
Students are required to attend all lectures and recitations . They are expected to read the .
assigned reading materials or chapters prior to the lecture and complete their assignments
before the recitation. The tutorial discussions will be based on the topics related to the
materials in the preceding lectures, and will be in the form of examples, problem solving, and
discussions, etc.
Students must also register for one of the recitation sections associated with this class.
Section
201
202
Time
12:30pm-2:00pm
12:30pm-2:00pm
Day
MW
TR
Classroom
Econ 205
Econ 205
Enrollment Limit
34
35
Computer Applications
Microcomputer Lab: Economics Building, Room 7; Norlin Library Statistics Laboratory
Dates and Times: to be announced in class
Objectives: Introduction to the use of Microcomputer. Quatro Pro spreadsheets software program,
MiniTab or TSP software package.
Instruction for each computer exercise/project will be given in class. Students who are interested in
acquiring more knowledge in microcomputers and regression analysis are encouraged to take Econ
4818, Intro to Econometrics or Econ 4838, Microcomputer Applications in Economics.
Note: Check your final exam schedule during the first week of the semester. If you are concerned about the
possibility of taking three or more final exams on the same day, please make any desired schedule adjustment
during the drop-add period.
I.
Course Outline
Part I - Descriptive Statistics
1
7/12
Ch. 1,2
Introduction, Statistical Data Collection
2
7/ 13
Ch. 3
Frequency Distributions and Data Analysis
3
7/14
Ch. 4
Measures of Center Location and Dispersion of a Distribution
4
7/ 18
Ch. 13
Simple Linear Regression and the Correlation Coefficients (13.3, 13.5, 13.6)
Part II - Probability and Important Distributions
5
7/19
Ch. 5
Probability Concepts and Their Analysis
6
7/20
Ch. 6
Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions
7
7/21
Ch. 7
The Normal and Lognormal Distributions
8
7/22
Ch. 8
Sampling and Sampling Distributions
9
7/25
Ch. 9
Other Continuous Distributions and Moments for Distributions
Part III - Statistical Inferences Based on Samples
10
7/27
Ch. 10
Estimation and Statistical Quality Control
7/28' (Thurs)'
11
7/29
Ch. 11
Hypothesis Testing
Part IV - Regression and Correlation: Relating Two or More Variables
12
8/1
Ch. 13
Simple Linear Regression and the Correlation Coefficient
13
8/2
Ch. 14
Simple Linear Regression and Correlation: Analyses and Applications
14
8/4
Ch. 15
Multiple Linear Regression
15
8/8
Ch. 16
Other Topics in Applied Regression Analysis
Part V - Selected Topics in Statistical Analysis for Business and Economics
16
8/ 10
Ch. 18
Time-Series: Analysis , Model , and Forecasting
17
8/ 11
Ch. 19
Index Numbers and Stock Market Indexes
. 8/12. (l?ri)
the Final
Tes~ (150 pts.,..Comp~hensive)
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r
II.
Chapter Exercises, Recitation Exercises, and Microcomputer Exercises:
a.
Each homework chapter and each recitation exercise has the maximum of 10 points . The
microcomputer term paper has the maximum of 60 points . No credits for late homework or
exercises.
b.
Occasionally , extra-credit exercises will be given in the class.
III.
Semester Grading : Semester grades consist of three parts: Exam scores (80%) , Homework and Tutorial Exercise
scores (15 %), and Quizzes (given in regular and tutorial) (5 %) . Probable cutoff points are in the vicinity of 90%
(A-), 80% (B-) , 70% (C-), 60% (D-); some curving may be used.
IV.
General Remarks
V.
1.
Please attend the classes regularly. We expect every student to participate in all classes and recitations.
2.
Test dates are firm . Please prepare for the tests long before the test dates.
3.
If you are going to miss or have missed an exam, hand in an explanatory statement and documentation to the
instructor or call the instructor for approval of excused absence within 24 hours after the test time.
Otherwise, no make-up test and a zero grade will be given to unexcused absences for exams .
4.
Please come to talk with (or call) the instructor about any problems related to the course.
General References:
Becker, W.E. and D.L. Hamett, Business and Economics Statistics with Computer Applications Addison-Wesley,
Reading, MA, 1987.
Harnett, D.L. and J.L. Murphy, 1985, Statistical Analysis for Business and Economics, 3rd ed. (Addison-Wesley,
Reading MA).
Kilpatrick, M., 1987, Business Statistics Using Lotus 1-2-3 (John Wiley & Sons, New York).
Kohler, H. , 1988, Essentials of Statistics (Scott, Foresman and Company, Glenview, Illinois) .
Mansfield, E., 1987, Statistics for Business and Economics - Methods and Applications, 3rd ed. (Norton and Co.,
New York).
Mirer, T.W., 1988, Economic Statistics and Econometrics, 2nd ed. (Macmillan, New York) .
Salvatore, D. , 1982, Theory and Problem of Statistics and Econometrics, Schaum's Outline Series in Economics
(McGraw-Hill, New York).
Wonnacott, T .H. and R.J. Wonnacott, 1984, Introductory Statistics for Business and Economics, 3rd ed. (John
Wiley and Sons, New York) .
VI.
Some Statistical Data Sources:
President's Council of Economic Advisers, 1989, Economic Report of the President, each year, U.S. Government
Printing Office Washington, D .C.
Statistical Abstract of the United States, each year, U.S . Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.
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The following Examination R_ .:s will be strictly enforced.
1.
Spread the chairs - you should not be too close to each other.
2.
Put books in front under the blackboard, out of reach.
3.
Use only the sheets of paper distributed to you in class. Do not use your own paper for tests and
calculations.
4.
Hand in all of the test papers and materials you have used in the test. Write "scrap" at the upper
right corner of the paper if it does not contain your answers.
5.
Make sure to number the questions clearly and write your name on each page of your test sheets.
6.
No students are allowed to leave the classroom during the test. Please go to the washroom before the
test starts.
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