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Economic Analysis
Industry Analysis
Consulting
Data & Software
Forecasting
Emerging Market
Middle Class Populations
Nariman Behravesh
Chief Economist
DRIl WEFA
USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum
February 21, 2002
Copyright © 2002 DRI•WEFA, Inc.
1
Economic Analysis
Industry Analysis
Consulting
Data & Software
Forecasting
Middle Class Population - 2005
(Millions)
EU - 15
United States
China
India
Japan
Russia
Brazil
Mexico
South Korea
Poland
Indonesia
Argentina
Australia
Taiwan
Turkey
South Africa
Hungary
0
50
100
150
200
Copyright © 2002 DRI•WEFA, Inc.
250
300
350
2
Economic Analysis
Industry Analysis
Consulting
Data & Software
Forecasting
GDP per Capita in 1990 Dollars
(1990 Dollars)
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1820
1870
1900
Japan
1913
1950
Germany
Copyright © 2002 DRI•WEFA, Inc.
1973
1992
U.S.
3
Economic Analysis
Industry Analysis
Consulting
Data & Software
Forecasting
GDP per Capita in 1990 Dollars
(1990 Dollars)
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1820
1870
1900
Czech
1913
Hungary
1950
1973
Poland
USSR
Copyright © 2002 DRI•WEFA, Inc.
1992
4
Economic Analysis
Industry Analysis
Consulting
Data & Software
Forecasting
GDP per Capita in 1990 Dollars
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
(1990 Dollars)
1820
1870
1900
Argentina
1913
Brazil
Copyright © 2002 DRI•WEFA, Inc.
1950
1973
1992
Mexico
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Economic Analysis
Industry Analysis
Consulting
Data & Software
Forecasting
GDP per Capita in 1990 Dollars
12,000
(1990 Dollars)
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1820
1870
1900
China
India
1913
1950
Indonesia
Copyright © 2002 DRI•WEFA, Inc.
1973
1992
South Korea
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Economic Analysis
Industry Analysis
Consulting
Data & Software
Forecasting
GDP per Capita in 1990 Dollars
5,000
(1990 Dollars)
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1820
1870
1900
Egypt
Ghana
1913
1950
South Africa
Copyright © 2002 DRI•WEFA, Inc.
1973
1992
Turkey
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Economic Analysis
Industry Analysis
Consulting
Data & Software
Forecasting
Per Capita GDP - 1990
UNITED STATES
KOREA
ARGENTINA
CZECH REPUBLIC
MEXICO
BRAZIL
HUNGARY
SOUTH AFRICA
TURKEY
RUSSIA
POLAND
EGYPT
INDONESIA
GHANA
CHINA
0
GDP per Capita
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
GDP per Capita at Purchasing Power Parities
Copyright © 2002 DRI•WEFA, Inc.
8
Economic Analysis
Industry Analysis
Consulting
Data & Software
Forecasting
Per Capita GDP - 2010
UNITED STATES
KOREA
HUNGARY
CZECH REPUBLIC
POLAND
MEXICO
RUSSIA
ARGENTINA
BRAZIL
TURKEY
CHINA
EGYPT
SOUTH AFRICA
INDONESIA
GHANA
0
GDP per Capita
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
GDP per Capita at Purchasing Power Parities
Copyright © 2002 DRI•WEFA, Inc.
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Economic Analysis
Industry Analysis
Consulting
Data & Software
Forecasting
S. America
W. Europe
E. Europe
Russia
Asia
Japan
China
Middle East
Africa
Population Growth
Immigration Policies
Labor Mkt. Flexibility
Education
Entrepreneurial Culture
Savings/Investment
Financial Mkts. Infra.
Risk Capital
Instit. Reforms
Innov./Technology
Transp./Telecomm.
Openness/Competition
Natural Resources
Macro Policies
N. America
Long-Term Growth Potential: Contributing Factors
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Copyright © 2002 DRI•WEFA, Inc.
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