Download NorthernClimate

Building
B
ildi Resilience
R ili
ffor
Adaptation to Climate Change
in the Agriculture
g
sector
Crop production
in a northern climate
Helena Kahiluoto
FAO / OECD WORKSHOP
23rd to 24th April 2012
27.4.2012
Outline
• Why a new strategy
• From assessment to enhancement
• Determinants for adaptive capacity of agrifood systems
• Cropping in a northern climate
© Maa- ja elintarviketalouden tutkimuskeskus
27.4.2012
2
Why a new strategy?
• Climate change with its indirect consequences
• Market turbulence, global integration
Complexity and uncertainty!
Predict adapt?
Determining risks
prepare?
© Maa- ja elintarviketalouden tutkimuskeskus
27.4.2012
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From assessing to enhancement
• From conceptual work to empirical assessment
• From
F
i di t
indicators
t assess towards
to
t
d means to
t enhance
h
– TOOLS FOR ACTORS!
© Maa- ja elintarviketalouden tutkimuskeskus
27.4.2012
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Research questions
• What are the determinants for adaptive capacity of
agrifood systems?
• Does diversity enhance resilience / adaptive capacity?
• Is
I there
th
t d ff between
trade-off
b t
di
diversity
it and
d efficiency?
ffi i
?
© Maa- ja elintarviketalouden tutkimuskeskus
27.4.2012
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© Maa- ja elintarviketalouden tutkimu
27.4.2012
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Determinants for adaptive capacity of
food supply chain
• Adaptive capacity - a new view with value added
• Understandable through practical examples
• T
Transparency, dialogue
di l
– social
i l capital
it l
• Innovativeness, learning – social learning
souvereignty energy efficiency
• Energy and nutrient souvereignty,
Himanen SJ, Kahiluoto H, Riikonen P, Niemi J (in preparation)
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Dependence of revenue on income source diversity
Probability
Probability
Diversity
Area ha
Diversity
Area ha
Farm has
forest income
Farm has no
forest income
Kahiluoto H, Miettinen A, Ketoja E, Himanen SJ (in preparation)
Farm resilience vs. efficiency
• No trade-off in land use diversity vs. resource use efficiency
• Not even in a stabile situation
• Diversity does not constrain efficiency
• Decisive, what kind of diversity (system management)
Kahiluoto H, Kuosmanen N, Himanen SJ (accepted)
N surplus
l depending
d
di
on farm
f
crop diversity
di
it
N surplus kg ha-1
25
Diversity
class 1-3
based on
Shannon
Typen ylijää
ämä kg/ha
20
15
1
2
3
10
5
0
CoolViileä
weather
AverageKeski
weather
HotKuuma
weather
Salo T, Kahiluoto H, Kaseva J, Himanen SJ (in preparation)
B l cultivar
Barley
lti
diversity
di
it and
d regional
i
l yield
i ld
Himanen SJ, Ketoja E, Hakala K, Rötter R, Salo T, Kahiluoto H (submitted)
Standardized Shannon Weaver indices for barley cultivar type diversity (continuous
line) and response diversity (dashed line). Development in regions with the smallest
and greatest disparity between these two indices since 2006 is shown. Dark green
indicates regions with small and light green with a great disparity
disparity. The size of the
circles illustrates barley cultivation area in 2005-2009.
Kahiluoto H, Kaseva J, Trnka M, Jauhiainen L, Hakala K, Rötter R, Himanen SJ (manuscript)
Conclusions
• New approach gives ‘value added’
• Souvereignty, dialogue and social learning
• Targeted diversity offers tools
• Efficiency can be combined with diversity
© Maa- ja elintarviketalouden tutkimuskeskus
27.4.2012
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Thank you!
www.mtt.fi/adacapa
h l
[email protected]
k hil t @ tt fi
© Maa- ja elintarviketalouden tutkimuskeskus
27.4.2012
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