Download How is Asia`s climate changing

How is Asia’s climate changing
Prof. Dr. Edvin Aldrian
(LA, Chapter 14)
Director of Center for Research and Development
BMKG Indonesia
© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude
Presented at Launch of the IPCC’s Fifth
Assessment Report (Synthesis) at the
LEDS Asia Forum, Jogjakarta 10 – 11
Nopember 2014
BMKG
Outline
• Observed Changes
• Regional Projections
• Evidences of Climate Change in Indonesia
• Climate Change Information System in Indonesia
Chapters of Relevance
Chapter 2 Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
Chapter 12 Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
Chapter 14 Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change
Annex I Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
Observed Changes
Temperature
Precipitation between AR4 and AR5
Change in Extremes
Observed Changes
Temperature
Observed Changes
Observed changes in Precipitation – AR4 vs. AR5
AR5
AR4
Projected Changes
Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation
Projected Changes
Changes in Extremes
Changes in Extremes
Projected Changes
Annual Precipitation
Regional examples
Monsoons
ENSO
Tropical Cyclones
ATLAS
Portraying regional climate change in WGI – through
important climate phenomena
Global Monsoon
Regional Changes
Monsoon systems
Regional Changes
Projected Future Changes in the Variability of
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Precipitation
Temperature
Standard Deviation of NINO3
Tropical phenomena: Convergence Zones
Rainfall Change
(medium confidence)
“wet-get-wetter” over CZ regions
Figure 14.9: Seasonal cycle
of zonal-mean tropical
precipitation change (2081–
2100 in RCP8.5 minus
1986–2005) in CMIP5
multimodel ensemble mean.
Eighteen CMIP5 models
were used. Stippling
indicates that more than
90% models agree on the
sign of MME change. The
red curve represents the
meridional maximum of the
climatological rainfall.
Adapted from Huang et al.
(2013).
The seasonal-mean rainfall is projected to
increase on the ITCZ equatorward flank
“warmer-get-wetter” over oceans
Figure 14.8: Upper panel: Annual-mean precipitation percentage change (∆P/P in
green/gray shade and white contours at 20% intervals), and relative SST change
(colour contours at intervals of 0.2°C; negative shaded) to the tropical (20S–20N)
mean warming in RCP8.5 projections, shown as 23 CMIP5 model ensemble mean.
More warming and rainfall at north of the
equator. Less zonal SST gradient across
the equatorial Pacific that contribute to
the weakened Walker cells.
Regional Changes
Tropical cyclones
Fig. AI.3
Annex I: Atlas of Global and
Regional Climate Projections
 35 regions
 42 global climate models
 2 variables
Temperature, Precipitation
 4 scenarios
Principles Governing IPCC Work
RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5
(1998, 2003, 2006)
temp: DJF, JJA (for temp)
precip: AMJJAS, ONDJFM
 Maps for 3 time horizons
2016-35, 2046-65, 2081-2100
reference period 1986-2005
Fig. AI.4
 2 seasons
Evidences of Climate Change
In
INDONESIA
BMKG
HISTORY OF ICE in PAPUA 1936-2000
BMKG
Prentice, 2007
PUNCAK JAYA
1936
1991
2009
May 15, 2010
2001
W. Northwall Firn
BMKG
E. Northwall Firn
Carstensz
BMKG
ICE &
CLIMATE,
HOW?
“LAPIS LEGIT”
BMKG Ice Core research Project
BMKG
The glaciers of Puncak
Jaya, Papua, Indonesia.
The proposed drill sites
are marked in red (Klein
& Kaplan, 2006)
W. Northwall
Firn
Core Site
E.Northwall
Firn
Core Site
Southwall Hanging
Glacier
Core Site
Core Site
BMKG Ice Core research Project
BMKG
Biak
30
29
Consistent distribution
- Mean shift per decade
- Variances are relatively the same
28
27
26
25
24
T2 data
90-00
T3 data
00-10
T1 data
80-90
0.45
4000
6000
8000
10000
0.4
12000
0.35
0.3
Density
2000
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
24
25
26
27
Data
28
29
30
BMKG
‘Advanced’ QC: homogenization
Original time series with significant (confidence = 95%) changepoints
30
29
Rationalization: 28
•
Series is homogenized
with respect
27
to the last segment (base period).
26
•
Each quantile category is corrected
25
w.r.t. base period
24
•
Trends are preserved
23
22
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Homogenized time series (red)
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
0
2000
4000
SIGNAL OF GLOBAL WARMING IN LOCAL SST
(ALDRIAN, 2007)
BMKG
32
SST SCS
y = 0.0208x + 28.92
31
Celcius
30
29
28
27
26
Suhu muka laut China Selatan
25
Linear (Suhu
Suhumuka
mukalaut
lautChina
ChinaSelatan)
Selatan
The detection of global warming is easy in shallow ocean like
South China sea (0 – 5N, 105E – 110E).
The increase of SST over this area is 0.0208ºC.
In hundred years (2105) it is projected to reach 31.3ºC.
Will SST rise even further then?
2006
2006
2005
2004
2003
2003
2002
2001
2001
2000
1999
1999
1998
1997
1996
1996
1995
1994
1994
1993
1992
1991
1991
1990
1989
1989
1988
1987
2002
1986
2006
1986
1999
1985
1995
1984
1992
1984
1988
1983
1985
1982
1982
24
31
30.5
30
29.5
29
28.5
28
27.5
27
26.5
26
2016
2009
2002
1995
1988
1982
1975
1968
1961
1954
1947
1941
1934
1927
1920
1913
1906
y = 0.00002x + 28.413
R2 = 0.0913
1900
SST (Celsius)
Sea Surface Temperature Indonesia 1900-2009
(5.5 LS - 4.5 LS, 108 BT - 109 BT), source JRA-25
Tahun
SST Trend
Increase of 0.024 – 0.03oC / 100 years
Sea Surface Temperature Indonesia 1900-2009
(12 LS - 8 LU, 95 BT - 141 BT), source JRA-25
30
29.5
28.5
28
y = 0.00002x + 28.16
R2 = 0.139
27.5
27
Tahun
2016
2009
2002
1995
1988
1982
1975
1968
1961
1954
1947
1941
1934
1927
1920
1913
1906
26.5
1900
SST (Celsius)
29
BMKG
Lokasi stasiun
SEA LEVEL RISE
Kenaikan
muka laut
(mm/tahun)
Sumber
Cilacap (selatan
Jawa Tengah)
1.30
Hadikusuma, 1993
Belawan (Sumatera
Utara)
7.83
ITB, 1990
Jakarta
4.38
ITB, 1990
7.00
Berdasarkan data from 19842006
Semarang (jawa
Tengah)
9.37
ITB. 1990
5.00
Berdasarkan data from 19842006
Surabaya (Jawa
Timur)
1.00
Berdasarkan data from 19842006
Sumatra Timur
5.47
ITB, 1990
Lampung
4.15
P3O-LIPI, 1991
BMKG
Ambient CO2 measurement
Trend= 2.67ppm (logarithmic)
Est Dec 2020+ 399.06 ppm
Est Dec 2020 -26%=392.63 ppm
BMKG
Ambient CH4 Concentration
BMKG
Reduction of GHG concentration during
Nyepi Hindu day
Nama Lokasi :
Koordinat
:
Metode &
Frekuensi
Data
:
Alat
Data GRK
:
:
Negara
Singaraja
Karangasem
Bedugul
Denpasar
8º 20’ 24”S, 114º
36’ 59”E
8º 6’ 57,2”S, 115º
4’ 50,1”E
8º 21’ 53,4”S, 115º
36’ 39,0”E
8º 15’ 1,8”S,
115º 9’ 8,2”E
8º 40’ 44,2”S, 115º 13’
56,6”E
Indirect Measurement (Sampling); Daily Data (14.00
WITA)
Direct
Measurement;
Continuous
Monitoring; (Data
tiap 5 menit)
Flask Sampler
CO2, CH4
Flask Sampler
CO2, CH4
Flask Sampler
CO2, CH4
Flask
Sampler
CO2, CH4
WolfPack® & IRIS 4600
CO2, N2O
BMKG
Reduction of GHG concentration during
Nyepi Hindu day
535
420
515
495
8 Maret
475
9 Maret
455
10 Maret
435
11 Maret
Sebelum
415
12 Maret
Saat Nyepi
395
Setelah
375
0:00
CO2 (ppm)
400
390
380
13 Maret
14 Maret
2:24
4:48
7:12
9:36
12:00
14:24
16:48
19:12
21:36
Jam
370
360
Negara
Karangasem
Bedugul
LOKASI
342
Singaraja
341
8 Maret
340
N2O (ppb)
CO2 (ppm)
410
9 Maret
339
10 Maret
338
11 Maret
337
12 Maret
336
13 Maret
335
0:00
14 Maret
2:24
4:48
7:12
9:36
12:00
14:24
16:48
19:12
Jam
Average reduction 33%
21:36
Climate Change Information System
For Sectoral Use
in
INDONESIA
BMKG
Development of Climate Change Information System
BMKG
Development of Synoptic chart and analyses
BMKG
Development of Synoptic chart and analyses
BMKG
Development of Synoptic chart and analyses
BMKG
Development of Synoptic chart and analyses
BMKG
Development of Synoptic chart and analyses
BMKG
Development of Synoptic chart and analyses
BMKG
Development of Synoptic chart and analyses
BMKG
Development of Synoptic chart and analyses
BMKG
BMKG
44
BMKG
BMKG
45
Further Information
www.climatechange2013.org
© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude
BMKG