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Regional results of the Ifo Business Survey in
September 2012
Ifo Business Climate for Saxony
Regional results of the Ifo Business Survey for September 2012
Business Climate in Saxony in September 2012:
Business Climate Index in Saxony Drops Sharply
Ifo Business Climate for Industry and Trade
Index 2005=100, seasonally adjusted
120
Germany
115
110
Eastern Germany
105
101,4
101,3
100,4
100
95
90
Saxony
85
80
2001
2002
2003
Source: Ifo Business Survey.
2004
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2011 2012
9/2012 ©
The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade fell for the fifth time in
succession in September. The business climate in Eastern Germany as a whole, and
in Saxony, also clouded over considerably this month. Survey participants in Saxony
report a less favourable current business situation and expect their business to develop much less favourably over the next six months.
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Regional results of the Ifo Business Survey in
September 2012
Employment Barometer for Saxony
The Ifo Employment Barometer for industry and trade in Saxony fell in September.
Both Saxon manufacturers and the distributors surveyed plan to downsize their staff
base to a greater degree over the next three months. Only Saxon construction firms
reported smaller cuts in their staff numbers.
Manufacturing: Business Climate Continues to Deteriorate
The business climate index for Saxon manufacturing fell for the sixth time in succession in September. Although overall assessments of the current business situation
remain good, survey participants expressed greater caution this month. Reports with
regard to future business developments were far more pessimistic, with the same
picture emerging from consumer goods, durable goods and capital investment goods
producers. Saxon manufacturers expect negative impulses from exports over the
next six months. They intend to make larger cuts to their staff numbers than last
month.
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Regional results of the Ifo Business Survey in
September 2012
Construction: Forward Orders Fall
The business climate in Saxon construction cooled down significantly. Saxon construction firms assessed the current business situation in particular as far poorer than
last month. Overall, they are also more negative about their future business outlook.
According to company reports, both average machine capacity utilization and midterm forward orders in Saxon construction are below the levels reported for August.
The firms surveyed are planning lower cuts to their staff numbers.
Distribution: Sales Fall Sharply
The business climate also fell sharply in the Saxon distribution sector this month.
Firms at both levels of trade reported a significant drop in sales versus the same
month last year. While nearly one in five wholesalers reported a loss of income versus last year, nearly one in three Saxon retailers reported that sales were below the
figures achieved for the same month last year.
Business Climate for Saxony by Sector
For comparison: GDP growth rate in Saxony
4
GDP growth rate (%)
Business climate, seasonally adjusted, averaged
3
40
30
2
20
1
10
0
0
-1
-10
-2
GDP growth rate
-3
-20
Businsess services b)
Manufacturing
-4
-30
Construction
Trade
-5
-40
2009
2010
2011
a) 2012: Ifo Economic Forecast (July 2012); b) Based on Creditreform Survey.
Source: Ifo Branch Dresden, Ifo Business Survey, Creditreform Dresden, Working group "VGR der Länder".
2012
9/2012 ©
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Regional results of the Ifo Business Survey in
September 2012
Development of selected economic activity indicators for manufacturing, construction as well as
wholesaling and retailing in Saxonya
Saxony
Sep. 12
For comparison:
Eastern
German
Statesc
Saxony
Germany
Aug. 12
Sep. 11
Sep. 12
Manufacturing
Demand situation b)
-0.7
-18.2
-20.2
-11.0
2.1
-14.6
-14.0
-6.8
8.2
-8.7
-7.8
-2.8
-3.0
0.2
-0.7
0.9
Order stocks in months
2.4
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.9
Equipment utilisation in %
72.9
75.2
76.6
74.5
72.9
-3.7
-13.5
-6.5
-4.5
-0.9
-19.8
-12.6
-14.7
-12.2
-15.0
Turnover vis-à-vis previous yearb
-18.0
-2.0
11.0
-12.0
2.0
Order plansb
-23.5
-11.5
-8.4
-26.6
-12.2
15.3
20.0
5.5
18.1
19.7
-32.0
-14.0
-6.0
-30.0
5.0
-18.4
-15.9
-7.3
-27.0
-10.3
14.2
7.7
11.2
21.7
16.2
Production plans
b)
Staff numbers – expectations
b
Selling prices – expectationsb
-21.8
-4.5
-17.0
-10.8
Construction
Staff numbers – expectationsb
Building prices – expectations
b
Wholesaling
Selling prices – expectations
b
Retailing
Turnover vis-à-vis previous yearb
Order plans
b
Selling prices – expectations
b
a) Seasonally adjusted values (Exception: Information on turnover vis-à-vis previous year). – b) Balances of the percentages of positive and negative survey responses. – c) Eastern German states including east Berlin.
Source: Ifo Institute.
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