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Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Munich, Germany
Italy and the Eurocrisis
Giampaolo Galli
13 May 2013
Real GDP
(2000 = 100)
130
125
120
115
France
Germany
Italy
United Kingdom
United States
Spain
110
105
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
IMF estimates for 2014.
Source: IMF.
2
Italy:
industrial
production
Indice
della
produzione
industriale
(January 2000
= 100,
seasonally
(Primo
trimestre
2008=100)adjusted data)
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: ISTAT.
3
Unemployment Rate
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
ITA
2004
2005
FRA
2006
2007
GER
2008
2009
UK
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
USA
Source: EC
4
5
6
Italy: net balance of new Smes
1,50%
1,00%
0,50%
0,00%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-0,50%
-1,00%
-1,50%
Source: Unioncamere
7
General government gross debt
(In percentage of GDP)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
IMF estimates for 2014.
Source: IMF.
8
General government primary net lending/borrowing
(In percentage of GDP)
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
-12.0
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
-14.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
IMF estimates for 2014.
Source: IMF.
9
Performance of GDP per capita in major
European countries*
(GDP per capita, U.S. = 100)
85
80
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
75
70
65
*International dollars purchasing-power-parity (PPP).
Source: IMF.
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
60
10
11
Productivity in major advanced countries
GDP per hour worked
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
Source: OCSE.
Total factor productivity
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
12
Italy:Unit labour costs and real wages
Indice 1999=100
130
ULC
125
120
115
110
105
Net real wages
100
95
1999
Source: Oecd and Bank of Italy
2005
2011
Productivity in tradable and non-tradable sectors
(Gross value added per person employed, 2000 = 100)
Italy
Tradable
Non tradable
Eurozone
Tradable
Non tradable
Source: European Commission.
14
Labour productivity in 2007
(Value added at constant price / hours worked; 1995 = 100)
Source: EU-Klems (2009)
15
Total factor productivity in 2007
(1995 = 100)
Source: EU-Klems (2009)
16
Italy: current account balance
(In percentage of GDP)
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
-2,5
-3,0
-3,5
-4,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: IMF.
17
Exports as % of GDP
0,45
Germany
0,40
0,35
0,30
0,25
Italy
France
Spain
0,20
0,15
0,10
0,05
1970
1975
1980
Source OECD STAN Bilateral Trade Database
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: European Commission.
Ireland
Slovakia
Belgium
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Netherlands
Denmark
Estonia
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Spain
Romania
Finland
Sweden
Poland
Portugal
Latvia
UK
Lithuania
Germany
France
Slovenia
Austria
Greece
Italy
Flows of foreign direct investment
(In percentage of GDP)
19
Average firm size in selected European countries
Source: Eurostat.
20
Italy has one of the lowest investment ratio in R&D
and ICT specialization among OECD countries
21
Share of family-owned and family-managed
enterprises
(In percent)
Source: Bugamelli, Cannari, Lotti e Magri (2012).
22
Share of enterprises by age of entrepreneurs
and percentage of graduates in the labor force
(In percent)
Source: Bugamelli, Cannari, Lotti e Magri (2012).
23
24
Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Munich, Germany
Italy and the Eurocrisis
Giampaolo Galli
13 May 2013