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10/18/2011
Policy Implications of the Economics of the Mobile Communication Revolution
Mark Cooper
Senior Fellow, Donald McGannon Center for Communications Research, Fordham University
Fordham University
Senior Adjunct Fellow, Silicon Flatirons, University of Colorado
September 2011
Global ICT developments, 2000‐2010*
100
90
Mobile cellular telephone subscriptions
Internet users
80
p
Fixed telephone
lines
70
Per 100 inhabitants
Mobile broadband subscriptions
60
Fixed broadband subscriptions
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
*Estimates
Source: ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*
1
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Subs/100 Pop
Global Wireless
y = 0.0074x + 37.286
R² = 0.2751
200
180
160
140
120
y = 0.0002x + 114.48
R² = 0.0097
100
80
60
40
20
0
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
GDP per Capita
Income > $10,000
Income < $10,000
2
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DECLINING MARGINAL VALUE OF BANDWIDTH: U.S. DATA
Revenue/ mHz
$5.00
$4.50
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
Wireless
y = 31.635x-0.892
R² = 0.9956
Cable Modem
Basic Cable
0
100
200
300
400
Digital Cable
500
600
700
800
Cumulative Capacity in mHz
U.S. in OECD High Speed Data Service $/Mbps
12
10
8
y = 14.911x-0.548
R² = 0.8626
6
4
2
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Maximum Advertised Mbps
Real Investment 1996‐2010
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
Wireless
$600
Cable
$400
$200
$0
Per Potential Subscriber
Per Potential Subscriber Per 100 MHz
3
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1400
Investment: Real Depreciated
Investment: Real Depreciated
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
4