Download PP Lesson 2-E

Lesson 2
Information Technology and
Processing Power
E-Business
Dr. Stephen Tse
Chief Technology Planning Strategist
(Greater China CBU, Bell Labs)
Associate Professor – QC
[email protected]
908-872-2108
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Stephen Tse
Disruptive Technologies Driving the
Communication Industry
SCALPEL lithography enables
atomic-scale transistors for
systems on a chip
Disruptive Packet
Technology
0.10µ
10B
“5ESS”
Circuit Switch
0.13µ
0.18µ
1B
Probable limit
for silicon
0.25µ
100M
0.07µ
Capacity/Cost
Transistors per Chip
Silicon
Protocol-agnostic
QoS-enabled routers
PC
Cellular Phone
10M
1995
2000
2005
Single-fiber capacity (Gbit/sec)
Wireless
Increase over Analog Cellular
Voice Call Carrying Capacity
1000
100
10
Years
WDM
Systems
10
1.5m WDM
1
1.3/1.5m
0.1
1.3m
0.8m Wavelength
1980
1985
1990
1995
1
2005
2010
Multi-antenna system
increases capacity
10x-100x
Stephen Tse
IP
Optics
100
0.01
1975
2000
?
2010
1000
1995
ATM
Software is key to
network management
and new services
80 wavelengths
in 1998, 1,000
wavelengths in
2005
2000
2005
Advances in Silicon, Optics,
Wireless, and Software will
drive a 250-fold increase in
network capacity by 2005.
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Technology Advances
Technologies
Improvement
1998 - 2002
Examples
Integrated Circuit Density
16x
4 GBIT DRAM
Processor Speed
15x
7700 MIPS-2G
High-Speed Switching
25x
25x106 PKTS/SEC
6.4 Terabits/sec
Speech Recognition
15x
5000 Word
Continuous Speech
Lightwave
3x
3.2 Terabits/sec.
Storage
25x
50 GBYTE Card
Wireless Capacity
20x
Digital, Micro and
Pico cells
Software Productivity
up to 10x
Reusable Software/
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Stephen Tse
Parallel processing
An Industry in Change
Today: Separate Vertical Industries
Telephony
• Wide Area
Networks
• Local Network
• CPE
Future:
Information
Industry
CATV
Computers
• Content Providers
• Multiple Packagers
• Local Network(s)
• CPE
• Software Providers
• Hardware Providers
• Networking
• Distribution
Channels
• Hardware &
Software Packages
Information Content
Information Servers
Information Networks
Information Appliances
Stephen Tse
Content
• Musicians
• Reporters
• Distribution
Channels
• Books
• CDs
• Newspaper
Cyber Carriers
•
•
Intense Competition
New Opportunities
Business in the speed of Light
Technology Convergence Is Breaking Down Barriers
Between Historically Separate Industry Segments
4
Business Processes will Change as Enterprises
Incorporate eBusiness
Tomorrow
Today
Business processes bounded by
bricks & mortar
Outsourced
Applications
Customers
Traditional Enterprise
Partners
Global
Locations
Suppliers
Integrated business processes
driven by secure access & shared
information
Manufacturin
g
Logistics
HR, Payroll,
Finance
Customers
Remote &
Mobile
Workers
Transport
Service
Providers
Virtual
Enterprise
Global
Locations
Partners
Suppliers
Communities
of Interest
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Stephen Tse
E-Business Working Definition
Technologies advance change business value chain position.
Enterprise must continuously optimize its value position in
order to stay competitive.
An electronic business (e-Business) will use its Information
Technologies(IT) infrastructure, networks, and applications
for continuous optimization of its value chain position.
Supply Chain Management
SCM
Inventory
Ebiz
Enterprise Resource Procedure
ERP
Financial
Customer Relationship Management
CRM
Marketing
Sales
Purchasing
Logistics
Transaction
Flow
Client
Services
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Stephen
Tse
E-Business
affects most operational aspects of an enterprise
May 1.0
Important uses of
Multimedia Content




Distance
learning
Interactive
courseware
Virtual Office
E-Commerce




Telemedicine
Media-enabled
Web radio
Web television
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Stephen Tse
Converged Networks Will Provide
Postal
Standard e-mail works fine
• But how about . . . .
– Certificate of delivery
– Certificate of mailing
– Time stamps
– Registered post
• Secure mail technology is available
(S-MIME)
– Works with encryption technology
Next generational communication
• Single network based personal data
• Persistent rules, address books, friends list, . . .
• Dynamic directories (Who’s online? Where?)
• Unified messaging (Voice/e-mail/video)
• Any-device, anywhere, anytime, but under
your control
e-Commerce
• Credit cards
– Secure as point-point transaction
– New schemes (SET) enable capabilities
yet unknown in physical world
• Smart cards
• Cashless society (anonymity!)
The TV viewing experience
•
•
•
•
•
Meta-information adds to viewing experience
Big-red buy button
Collaborative viewing
Blurr real-time and non-real time
Personalized viewing (learning)
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Stephen Tse
A MEMS Based Mirror Array
Optical X-C
2-Axis Micromirror
Mirror Surface
Self-Assembling
Springs
4x4 Array of 2-Axis Micromirrors
1mm mirror spacing / 0.5mm mirror diameter
Scalable to very large cross-connects (1024x1024)
Stephen Tse
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Optical Space Fabric
l Router
I/O Fibers
Reflector
MEMS 2-axis
Tilt Mirrors
Imaging
Lenses
• Inherently bit-rate and
protocol independent
fabric
• Single-stage free space
optical interconnection
• Compact optics (~25mm x
50mm x 50mm for 256x256
OXC).
• < 5msec switching.
• ~ 6dB single-mode fiber
insertion loss
• <-50dB crosstalk
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Stephen Tse
Photon Magic
Micro Electro Mechanical Systems
MEMS OXC
I/O Fibers
Reflector
.5 mm
Imaging
Lenses
MEMS
2-axis Tilt
Mirrors
l Router
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Stephen Tse
3,200+ Innovative Companies
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Stephen Tse
Broadband Access Options Fiber Feeder
& Heterogeneous ‘First Mile’
ATM PON
(FTTH)
Optical
Ethernet
VDSL
100
Cable
Modem
Megabits
10
Time-Space Processing
Steerable Beam
ADSL
Wavelan
1
SDSL
HDSL
HDSL2
DSL-Lite
Wireless
Twisted Pair
Cable
Fiber
Ethernet
Stationary beam
ISDN
0.1
56K
V.90
33.6
28.8
0.01
1988
VF Modem
14.4
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Deployment Year
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Stephen Tse
Free Space Optics – Laser Wireless
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Stephen Tse
Very High Speed Atomic
Scale Circuits
• SCALPEL lithography will
make VLSI circuits with
0.03m (~90 atoms) devices
practical and economical
Channel
• 3D semiconductor structures
will extend the “Moore curve”
beyond lithography
Gate
oxide
Drain
Gate
oxide
Gate
Gate
Gate length
Source
• Indium phosphide will provide
high speed devices required
for future
Stephen
Tse optical networking
Power [dBm]
+5
-5
-15
-25
-35
-45
-55
120.03
120.04
120.05
120.06
120.07
Frequency [GHz]
120.08
15
120.09
What Will Happen in 2005?
•Predictable Technologies
- Silicon up by a factor of 50
- Fiber up by a factor of 100
- Wireless up by a factor 0f 100-1000
•Unpredictable Architectures and
Convulsive Markets
- IP for everything?
- Home Networks?
- Information appliances?
Glasstron
- Video services on appliances? Sony
personal theater
Palm VII
wireless PDA
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Stephen Tse
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Stephen Tse