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Frost & Sullivan
The Current State and Prospects for the
Developments of the Wholesale Telecom Market in
Russia
Tatiana Tolmacheva,
Business Development Director,
Russian and CIS
Caspian Telecom 2010
April 28, 2010
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In 2009, the Russian wholesale telecommunications
market has been experiencing adverse conditions
Russian Wholesale Market Dynamics
RUB, bln
Terrestrial long-haul capacity
12
IP-Transit
10
In 1H2009 in Russia, the terrestrial
long-haul capacity market has been
declining, the IP-transit market has
been stagnating .
Q-on-Q market growth
8
6.9
6.8
6.2 -12%
6.0
5.7
6
-10%
5.5
4
2.3
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.5
2.9
This trend is a result of :
reduced demand for telecom services,
pricing pressure, intensified
competition, deficit of network
capacity, lack of funds for network
upgrade
2
09
2Q
09
1Q
08
4Q
08
3Q
20
08
2Q
1Q
08
0
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
3
Geographic expansion for Russian national networks operators is the
key factor to keep its stable revenue growth
While Rostelecom has been able to achieve YoY growth
in international business
Rostelecom
– Traffic and revenue from international operators
Bln
… it’s domestic voice business has fallen significantly
Bl Rub
7
46
6
44
5
Rostelecom
– Domestic & international outgoing traffic revenue
-6%
42
4
-10%
40
3
38
2
36
1
34
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009E
32
Traffic, min
Revenue, Rub
2006
2007
2008
2009E
Source: Rostelecom’s Presentation, Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Rostelecom is aimed at capitalizing on international market growth potential and to compensate the decline of
the revenue on the domestic market.
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However, there is still potential for the future market
growth in Russia
Enterprise IT and
communications
needs are
expanding
Increasing
adoption of
bandwidthintensive
applications across
verticals
Broadband Internet
access will sustain
market spending
Growing demand
from wireless
providers for high
bandwidth haul
networks drives
market spending
PL and other legacy
services are
continually replaced
with Ethernet leading
to increased demand
for GigE speeds
The demand in data
storage and security
functions is increasing
EVPL expected to
expand the
overall market
potential for
wholesale
services
The long-haul capacity market will be totally IP-driven
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The Applications will be King
Technology Evolution
Market trends
Web 2.0 represents a new
phase for collaborating,
sharing and communicating
at the consumer and
enterprise level
IP Multimedia Systems (IMS)
has become an open and
standardized architecture for
the delivery of multimedia
applications and VoIP
Device manufactures increase
user-friendliness of their
devices with improvements in
screen size, resolution, and
battery power.
Multimedia
applications
market
The usage of email, the web
and social networking is
growing in importance
Web 2.0 transition into the
mobile sphere through various
propositions
Blue-tooth and WiFi are
technologies for obtaining
wireless connections in mobile
phones
GPS, mobile phone TV, epayment have given a rise
Integration of digital camera,
music, business oriented
capabilities, games on a single
chip boost
Consumer demand for
higher mobile phone
function
New business
models
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Contacts for further information
Frost & Sullivan
Sullivan House
Tatiana Tolmacheva
Business Development Director
Russia & CIS
Direct : +7 910 459 6575
Email : [email protected]
4 Grosvenor Gardens
London SW1W 0DH
United Kingdom
+44 (0) 20 7915 0815
+44 (0) 20 7730 33 43
www.frost.com
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