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Measuring the Inclusiveness of the Philippine Financial System
using Two-level Nested Logit, Multivariate Probit and
Financial Inclusion Index
By
Mynard Bryan R. Mojica
A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment
Of the requirements for the degree of
Master of Science in Statistics
School of Statistics
University of the Philippines
Diliman, Quezon City
May 2015
Abstract
The study constructed econometric models for financial inclusion based on two-level nested logit
(NL) and multivariate probit (MVP). Results show that nesting the correlated outcomes of a polytomous
response variable could improve the ability of the multinomial model in predicting an outcome with small
choice probability. Simultaneous estimation of multiple correlated discrete response variables produced
parameter estimates with lower standard error, and provided more similar predictive performance in
training and test datasets. The study also introduced a financial inclusion index (FII) in the Philippines,
explored different scenarios in its construction, and assessed its performance against a set of tests based
from the economic price index theory.
Keywords: nested logit, multivariate probit, financial inclusion index
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