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Bayesian Higgs combination based on
event counts (follow-up from 11 May 07)
ATLAS Statistics Forum
CERN, 3 September, 2007
Glen Cowan
Physics Department
Royal Holloway, University of London
[email protected]
www.pp.rhul.ac.uk/~cowan
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 1
Outline
0 Quick recap of some formalism (see also 11 May 07 talk)
1 Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian computation
2 Computing Bayes factors
3 Application to ATLAS Higgs combination
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 2
Recap of Bayesian approach
Bayes’ theorem tells how our beliefs in a hypothesis (e.g. a
parameter q) should be updated in light of the data x:
prior
likelihood
posterior
E.g. for intervals/limits, integrate posterior pdf p(q | x) to have
desired probability content.
95% CL upper limit from
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 3
Marginalization with MCMC
Bayesian computations involve integrals like
often high dimensionality and impossible in closed form,
also impossible with ‘normal’ acceptance-rejection Monte Carlo.
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) has revolutionized
Bayesian computation.
Google for ‘MCMC’, ‘Metropolis’, ‘Bayesian computation’, ...
MCMC generates correlated sequence of random numbers:
cannot use for many applications, e.g., detector MC;
effective stat. error greater than √n .
Basic idea: sample multidimensional
look, e.g., only at distribution of parameters of interest.
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 4
MCMC basics: Metropolis-Hastings algorithm
Goal: given an n-dimensional pdf
generate a sequence of points
1) Start at some point
2) Generate
Proposal density
e.g. Gaussian centred
about
3) Form Hastings test ratio
4) Generate
5) If
else
move to proposed point
old point repeated
6) Iterate
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 5
Metropolis-Hastings (continued)
This rule produces a correlated sequence of points (note how
each new point depends on the previous one).
For our purposes this correlation is not fatal, but statistical
errors larger than naive
The proposal density can be (almost) anything, but choose
so as to minimize autocorrelation. Often take proposal
density symmetric:
Test ratio is (Metropolis-Hastings):
I.e. if the proposed step is to a point of higher
if not, only take the step with probability
If proposed step rejected, hop in place.
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
, take it;
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Metropolis-Hastings caveats
Actually one can only prove that the sequence of points follows
the desired pdf in the limit where it runs forever.
There may be a “burn-in” period where the sequence does
not initially follow
Unfortunately there are few useful theorems to tell us when the
sequence has converged.
Look at trace plots, autocorrelation.
Check result with different proposal density.
If you think it’s converged, try it again with 10 times
more points.
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 7
Example: posterior pdf from MCMC
Summarize pdf of parameter of
interest with, e.g., mean, median,
standard deviation, etc.
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 8
Bayesian model selection (‘discovery’)
The probability of hypothesis H0 relative to its complementary
alternative H1 is often given by the posterior odds:
no Higgs
Higgs
Bayes factor B01
prior odds
The Bayes factor is regarded as measuring the weight of
evidence of the data in support of H0 over H1.
Interchangeably use B10 = 1/B01
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 9
Assessing Bayes factors
One can use the Bayes factor much like a p-value (or Z value).
There is an “established” scale, analogous to our 5s rule:
B10
Evidence against H0
-------------------------------------------1 to 3
Not worth more than a bare mention
3 to 20
Positive
20 to 150
Strong
> 150
Very strong
Kass and Raftery, Bayes Factors, J. Am Stat. Assoc 90 (1995) 773.
11 May 07: Not clear how useful this scale is for HEP.
3 Sept 07: Upon reflection & PHYSTAT07 discussion, seems
like an intuitively useful complement to p-value.
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 10
Rewriting the Bayes factor
Suppose we have models Hi, i = 0, 1, ...,
each with a likelihood
and a prior pdf for its internal parameters
so that the full prior is
where
is the overall prior probability for Hi.
The Bayes factor comparing Hi and Hj can be written
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 11
Bayes factors independent of P(Hi)
For Bij we need the posterior probabilities marginalized over
all of the internal parameters of the models:
Use Bayes
theorem
So therefore the Bayes factor is
Ratio of marginal
likelihoods
The prior probabilities pi = P(Hi) cancel.
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 12
Numerical determination of Bayes factors
Both numerator and denominator of Bij are of the form
‘marginal likelihood’
Various ways to compute these, e.g., using sampling of the
posterior pdf (which we can do with MCMC).
E.g., consider only one model and write Bayes theorem as:
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 13
Harmonic mean estimator
E.g., consider only one model and write Bayes theorem as:
p(q) is normalized to unity so integrate both sides,
posterior
expectation
Therefore sample q from the posterior via MCMC and estimate m
with one over the average of 1/L (the harmonic mean of L).
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
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Improvements to harmonic mean estimator
The harmonic mean estimator is numerically very unstable;
formally infinite variance (!). Gelfand & Dey propose variant:
Rearrange Bayes thm; multiply
both sides by arbitrary pdf f(q):
Integrate over q :
Improved convergence if tails of f(q) fall off faster than L(x|q)p(q)
Note harmonic mean estimator is special case f(q) = p(q).
.
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 15
Importance sampling
Need pdf f(q) which we can evaluate at arbitrary q and also
sample with MC.
The marginal likelihood can be written
Best convergence when f(q) approximates shape of L(x|q)p(q).
Use for f(q) e.g. multivariate Gaussian with mean and covariance
estimated from posterior (e.g. with MINUIT).
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 16
Bayes factor computation discussion
Also tried method of parallel tempering; see note and also
Harmonic mean OK for very rough estimate.
I had trouble with all of the methods based on posterior sampling.
Importance sampling worked best, but may not scale well to
higher dimensions.
Lots of discussion of this problem in the literature, e.g.,
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 17
Bayesian Higgs analysis
N independent channels, count
ni events in search regions:
Constrain expected background
bi with sideband measurements:
Expected number of signal events:
(m is global parameter, m = 1 for SM).
Consider a fixed Higgs mass and assume SM branching ratios Bi.
Suggested method: constrain m with limit mup; consider mH
excluded if upper limit mup < 1.0.
For discovery, compute Bayes factor for H0 : m = 0 vs. H1 : m = 1
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 18
Parameters of Higgs analysis
E.g. combine cross section, branching ratio, luminosity, efficiency
into a single factor f:
Systematics in any of the factors can be described by a prior for f,
use e.g. Gamma distribution. For now ignore correlations, but
these would be present e.g. for luminosity error:
ai, bi from nominal value fi,0 and relative error ri=sf,i / fi,0 :
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 19
Bayes factors for Higgs analysis
The Bayes factor B10 is
Compute this using a fixed m for H1, i.e., pm(m) = d(m-m′),
then do this as a function of m′. Look in particular at m = 1.
Take numbers from VBF paper for 10 fb-1, mH = 130 GeV:
lnjj was for 30 fb-1,
in paper; divided by 3
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
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Bayes factors for Higgs analysis: results (1)
Create data set by hand with ni ~ nearest integer (fi + bi), i.e., m = 1:
n1 =22, n2 =22, n3 = 4.
For the sideband measurements mi, choose desired sb/b, use this to
set size of sideband (i.e. sb/b = 0.1 → m = 100).
B01 for sf/f = 0.1,
different values of sb/b.,
as a function of m.
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 21
Bayes factors for Higgs analysis: results (2)
B01 for sb/b = 0.1,
different values of sf/f,
as a function of m.
Effect of uncertainty in fi (e.g., in the efficiency):
m = 1 no longer gives a fixed si, but a smeared out distribution.
→ lower peak value of B10.
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 22
Bayes factors for Higgs analysis: results (3)
Or try data set with ni ~ nearest integer bi, i.e., m = 0:
n1 =9, n2 =10, n3 = 2. Used sb/b = 0.1, sf/f, = 0.1.
Here the SM m = 1
is clearly disfavoured,
so we set a limit on m.
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
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Posterior pdf for m , upper limits (1)
Here done with (improper) uniform prior, m > 0.
(Can/should also vary prior.)
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
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Posterior pdf for m , upper limits (2)
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RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
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Summary, outlook, etc.
There is a draft note describing this on
www.pp.rhul.ac.uk/~cowan/atlas/higgs_bayes.ps, pdf
Need to think more about how to calibrate Bayes factors relative
to p-values, i.e., study sampling distribution of B10.
Advantage of Bayesian method, especially with MCMC, is that
one can consider many possible forms for the systematic error,
change the tails, consider “error on the error”, etc.
Done so far for 3 channels; need to see how this scales for many
more.
G. Cowan
RHUL Physics
Bayesian Higgs combination
page 26