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http://cc.jlu.edu.cn/ms.html Medical Statistics 7 Tao Yuchun 1 2014.3.18 Statistical inference 3. t test and Z test 2 2014.3.18 3.1 t test (1) Comparing to a given population mean (One-sample t test) • See Example 6-1 and Example 6-2 in last class. ( see 2014MedicalStatistics6.ppt) • The formula of the test statistic for one-sample t test is: X t ~ t ( ) n 1 S n • here μ is a given population mean. 3 2014.3.18 • One-sample t test is also called the t test for one group of data under completely randomized design. •Question: What is completely randomized design? • Design for the individuals to be observed are completely randomly selected from the population. 4 2014.3.18 (2) Comparison for Paired Data (Paired-Samples t test) • Paired-Samples t test is also called the t test for data under randomized paired design. •Question: What is randomized paired design? • Design for the similar individuals in terms of several important features are paired and two individuals of any pair are randomly assigned to receive two treatments respectively. 5 2014.3.18 •Example 7-1: 8 patients with hypertension were treated with a medicine and the Diastolic Blood Pressure (DBP) was measured before and after the treatment. Comparing the effects of the medicine on decreasing DBP. Data list in the table below. DBP variation before and after treatment No. Before After Difference 1 96 88 8 2 112 108 4 3 108 102 6 4 102 98 4 5 98 100 -2 6 100 96 4 7 106 102 4 8 100 92 8 Total 36 6 2014.3.18 H 0 : d 0 •You can see “exp7-1.xls”. H1 : d 0 0.05 36 d i2 (di ) 2 / n 232 362 / 8 d 4.5 S d 3.16 8 n 1 8 1 d 0 4.50 t 4.02 sd / n 3.16 / 8 t > t0.05,7=2.365, P < 0.05, H0 is rejected at significance level α=0.05. The medicine can be thought as effectiveness, it can reduce DBP. 7 2014.3.18 • The formula of the test statistic for pairedsample t test is: d 0 t ~ t ( ) Sd n n 1 • here d and Sd refer to the mean and SD of the variable “difference”. 8 2014.3.18 (3) Comparison between two sample means (Independent-Samples t test) • Independent-Samples t test is also called the t test for comparing two means based on two groups of data under completely randomized design. •Example 7-2: Two groups of rats were fed by different food. One contains high protein, another contains low protein. Comparing the effects of different food on increasing weight. Data list in the table sees next page. 9 2014.3.18 Comparing the effects of different food on increasing weight for two groups of rats High Protein 134 146 104 119 124 161 107 low Protein 70 118 101 85 107 132 94 83 113 129 97 123 H 0 : 1 2 H1 : 1 2 0.05 2 S • First, you should calculate the c (called pooled estimation of sample variance): 2 2 ( n 1 ) S ( n 1 ) S 1 2 2 Sc2 1 n1 n2 2 10 2014.3.18 sc2 2 2 ( X X ) ( X X ) 1 1 2 2 n1 n2 2 2 2 2 2 X ( X ) / n X ( X ) 1 1 2 2 / n2 1 n1 n2 2 2 2 177832 1440 / 12 73959 707 /7 sc2 446.12 12 7 2 1 1 1 1 s X 1 X x sc2 ( ) 446.12( ) 10.05 n1 n2 12 7 X 1 X 2 120 101 t 1.891 s X1 X 2 10.05 •You can see “exp7-2.xls”. 11 2014.3.18 υ=n1+n2-2=12+7-2=17 Checked two sides tα,ν= t0.05,17=2.110, now t=1.891<2.110, then P>0.05, the null hypothesis is not rejected at the significance level α=0.05. There is not different for the population mean of increasing weight between two groups of rats fed different food containing different protein. 12 2014.3.18 The formula of the test statistic for independentsamples t test is: 2 2 ( n 1 ) S ( n 1 ) S 1 2 2 Sc2 1 n1 n2 2 n1 n2 2 ( X X ) ( X X ) 1i 1 2i 2 t 2 i 1 i 1 n1 n2 2 X1 X 2 S X1 X 2 X1 X 2 S c2 ( 1 1 ) n1 n2 • here Sc2 is pooled estimation of sample variance. • This t test is for assumption of the variances of two populations being equal. 13 2014.3.18 The t test is a statistical method for comparing differences between two groups. • The t test requires a continuous dependent variable on which the groups are being compared. • The t test assumes that the variable is normally distributed in the populations from which the samples are drawn and that the samples have equivalent variances. The t test is particularly useful in experimental and quasi-experimental designs in which an experimental and a control group are compared. 14 2014.3.18 •Question: How do I draw a conclusion by any t test ? • If t ≥tα,ν , then P ≤α,reject H0 at significance levelα=0.05. • If t <tα,ν , then P >α,accept H0 at significance levelα=0.05. • You can find tα,ν in Student’s t table ! You may also use Excel’s function tinv(α,ν) to get it. Remember it for Two-sided ! One-sided just use tinv(2α,ν) ! 15 2014.3.18 3.2 Z test (1) Comparing to a given population mean for a big sample (One-sample Z test) • The formula of the test statistic for one-sample Z test is: Z X ~ Z _ distribution S n • Z distribution is N(0,1). 16 2014.3.18 • big means sample size n ≥ 50. • One-sample Z test is same as one-sample t test in steps of hypothesis testing, but you need to check Z limit value instead of tα,ν. •Two sides: Z 0.05 1.96, Z 0.01 2.58 •One side: Z 0.05 1.65, Z 0.01 2.33 • The example omitted. 17 2014.3.18 (2) Comparison between two big sample means (Two-Samples Z test) • big means two sample size all n ≥ 50. •The formula of the test statistic for two-samples Z test is: Z X1 X 2 S X1 X 2 X1 X 2 S X2 1 S X2 2 18 X1 X 2 S12 S 22 n1 n2 2014.3.18 • Two-samples Z test is same as independent-samples t test in steps of hypothesis testing, but you need to check Z limit value instead of tα,ν. •Two sides: Z 0.05 1.96, Z 0.01 2.58 •One side: Z 0.05 1.65, Z 0.01 2.33 • The example omitted. •Question: How do I draw a conclusion by any Z test ? 19 2014.3.18 • If Z ≥Zα , then P ≤α,reject H0 at significance levelα=0.05. • If Z <Zα , then P >α,accept H0 at significance levelα=0.05. • Zα in your heart ! I remember it ! Z0.05=1.96, Z0.01=2.58 ! Two-sided ! 20 2014.3.18 3.3 Attention for Hypothesis Testing a. What does P-value mean? P-value is the area of the tail(s) in the distribution of the test statistic beyond the value(s) of the test statistic calculated based on the sample. • If the null hypothesis is rejected, the probability of mistake = P-value -- A smaller P-value implies the better quality of your rejection. • If the null hypothesis is not rejected, the bigger P-value implies the better quality of your acceptation. 21 2014.3.18 b. What does the significance level α mean? α shows the quality of the inference. If you reject the null hypothesis, the probability of making mistake is limited by α . c. What are type I error and type II error? • type I error: When H0 is true, but you rejected it. It denotes with α , the same as the level of a test. • type II error: When H0 is not true, but you accepted it. It denotes with β , which is not very easy to get accurately. 22 2014.3.18 • You should know Hypothesis Testing is a very important method in statistics ! (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbidden_City) 23 C 2014.3.18