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The Use of Control Charts in Health Care Monitoring and Public Health Surveillance William H. Woodall Department of Statistics Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061-0439 [email protected] 1 Topics to be covered: Some general issues Risk adjustment Examples of some of the plots used for monitoring Detection of clusters of chronic disease League tables, control charts, and funnel charts for cross-sectional data Conclusions 2 In 1999 the Institute of Medicine reported the number of deaths due to medical errors in U.S. hospitals to be 44,000 to 98,000 per year. Some prefer the term “preventable adverse events.” 3 Examples of health care variables Lab turnaround time Days from positive mammogram to definitive biopsy Patient satisfaction scores Medication error counts Emergency service response times Infection rates Mortality rates Number of patient falls Post-operative length of stay “Door-to-needle” time ……and many others… 4 Control charts are used to understand variation over time and to detect unusual events and trends. They are most effective in a hospital when used as a part of its organized quality improvement program, such as Six-Sigma. 5 I Chart of Transformed Time 3.0 UCL=2.744 Individual Value 2.5 2.0 1.5 _ X=1.334 1.0 0.5 0.0 LCL=-0.077 5 10 15 20 25 30 Observation 35 40 45 50 6 P Chart of Percentage 0.40 1 0.35 Proportion 0.30 UCL=0.2999 0.25 _ P=0.2016 0.20 0.15 LCL=0.1033 0.10 5 10 15 20 25 30 Sample 35 40 45 50 7 Xbar Chart of QC Variable 102.5 UCL=102.137 102.0 Sample Mean 101.5 101.0 __ X=100.492 100.5 100.0 99.5 99.0 LCL=98.847 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Sample 16 18 20 22 24 8 CUSUM Chart of QC Variable UCL=2.194 Cumulative Sum 2 1 0 0 -1 -2 LCL=-2.194 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Sample 16 18 20 22 24 9 Some Types of Control Charts Shewhart X-bar and R charts (n>1) Normality Shewhart I and MR charts (n=1) Normality Shewhart p-charts for proportions Binomial Shewhart c- and u-charts for counts Poisson Cumulative sum (CUSUM) charts 10 Our focus will be on the monitoring of chronic diseases, congenital malformations, and mortality rates over time. 11 Health care quality data are often attribute (yes/no) data with 100% inspection. counts or times to a “failure” with an assumed underlying Bernoulli, geometric or exponential distribution. 12 Suppose one counts the number of births between successive cases of a specific type of congenital malformation. The sets method of Chen (1978, JASA) signals an increase in the rate if a specified number of consecutive counts are all less than a specified value. For example, signal if 5 consecutive values are less than 1000. 13 Risk-adjustment is often essential in health care applications, where a logistic or other model is used to predict the probability of “failure.” …oooooooooooooooooooo …oD89pkej589Cv0238&*&%#$ 14 Examples of Risk Factors Down’s Syndrome: Age of mother Heart Surgery: Age, gender, hypertension, diabetic status, renal function, left ventricular mass. (Parsonnet score) Heart Surgery (Europe): Age, gender, chronic pulmonary disease, extracardiac arteriopathy, neurological dysfunction, previous cardiac surgery, creatinine > 200 µmol/ L, active endocarditis, critical preoperative state. (euroSCORE) 15 Much of the focus and work on mortality rate monitoring for physicians is being done in the UK and Canada. 16 17 18 Shipman Inquiry July 2002: 215 definite victims, 45 probable 19 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 Male 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 Female 1977 Cumulative excess mortality Cumulative excess death certificates signed by Shipman: age >64 and death in home/practice Year (Shipman Inquiry: total of definite or probable victims: 189 female > 65, 55 male over 65) 20 Sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) for detection of a doubling in mortality risk: age >64 years and death in home/practice for Dr. Harold Shipman. (Spiegelhalter et 21 al. (2003)) Resetting sequential probability ratio test (RSPRT) for detection of a doubling in mortality risk, age 22 >64. (From Spiegelhalter et al. (2003). RSPRT charts have a problem with building up “credit”. An increase in the mortality rate can occur when the SPRT value is below zero. This phenomenon is referred to as “inertia” in the industrial SPC literature. 23 Cumulative risk adjusted mortality (CRAM) chart with 99% control limits for change in mortality in last 16 expected deaths. (From Poloniecki et al. (1998)) 24 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 CUSUM X t + 6 4 0 0 - CUSUM X t 2 -2 -4 -6 Number of Patients Example of a two-sided risk-adjusted CUSUM chart (provided by Stefan H. Steiner) 25 The CUSUM chart is the best option. It can be risk-adjusted. It has optimality properties in detecting sustained shifts in the process. It has good inertial properties. It can be designed based on meaningful performance measures such as average run length (ARL). It can be used in the background with CRAM charts. 26 Control charts can be used to identify physicians or hospitals with unusually high (or low) mortality rates. The Society of Cardiothoracic Surgeons of Great Britain and Ireland interprets giving the benefit of the doubt to physicians as 9999:1 odds of adverse outcomes being due to chance alone before any alarm. 27 The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention use CUSUM and other control charting methods in their Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS). www.bt.cdc.gov/surveillance/ears/index.asp 28 Virtually all methods for the detection of clusters of disease are retrospective, based on historical spatial data. There are some new methods for detecting clusters prospectively, i.e., as they are forming. 29 30 Detection of clusters of chronic disease Aggregation of data by time and location Raubertas (1989, Statistics in Medicine) Rogerson and Yamada (2004, Statistics in Medicine) Aggregation of data by location Rogerson (1997, Statistics in Medicine) No aggregation Rogerson (2001, JRSS-A) 31 It is often useful to compare units, e.g., institutions or physicians, using cross-sectional data. 32 33 Example of a League Table from Adab et al. (2002). 34 Example of Proposed “Control Chart” by Adab et al. (2002) 35 "Funnel plot" of emergency re-admission rates following treatment for a stroke in large acute or multi-service hospitals in England and Wales in 2000–1. Exact 95% and 99.9% binomial limits are used. (From Spiegelhalter 36 (2002)) Harold Shipman Killed his patients using morphine overdoses. Was caught after carelessly revising a patient’s will, leaving all her assets to himself. His office typewriter was used to type the revised will. His computer records were doctored to show his patients had needed morphine just after the patients had been killed. The computer software, however, recorded the dates of these modifications. He hung himself in prison, never confessing to his crimes. 37 Baker, R. et al. British Medical Journal 2003;326: pp. 274-276 38 Highly recommended reference: Michael L. Millenson (1999). Demanding Medical Excellence: Doctors and Accountability in the Information Age, The University of Chicago Press. 39 Recommended References Sonesson, C. and Bock, D. (2003). “A Review and Discussion of Prospective Statistical Surveillance in Public Health”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 166, pp. 5-21. Grigg, O. A.; Farewell, V. T.; and Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2003). “Use of Risk-adjusted CUSUM and RSPRT Charts for Monitoring in Medical Contexts”. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 12, pp. 147-170. Grigg, O. and Farewell, V. (2004a). “An Overview of RiskAdjusted Charts”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 167, pp. 523-539. Steiner, S. H.; Cook, R. J.; Farewell, V. T.; and Treasure, T. (2000). “Monitoring Surgical Performance Using RiskAdjusted Cumulative Sum Charts”. Biostatistics 1, pp. 44140 452. My paper is available at http://filebox.vt.edu/users/bwoodall/ 41 Conclusions There are many important applications of control charts in health care. Improvement of health care is a life-or-death matter. There are many interesting SPC research opportunities in public health surveillance. There needs to be a greater transfer of knowledge between the medical and industrial application areas. 42