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Hypothesis development Environmental quality of the Poudre River Urban impact from Fort Collins Influence assessed through physical, chemical and biological characteristics Data sampling Environmental data Physical data Watershed-scale Urbanization, road density, etc. Reach-scale Stream width, slope, etc. Chemistry data Nitrate, conductivity, etc. Biological data Invertebrate metrics Taxonomic, biotic index, species traits Epilithon AFDM, Chl a Benthic organic matter AFDM Taxonomic community structure Richness (how many taxa) Abundance (how many individuals per taxa) Specific taxonomic groups Based on knowledge of group tolerance levels % Chironomids % Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) Biotic index A score that represents the species’ tolerance to disturbance Based on observation and expert opinion, not ecological theory Abundance Chironomidae Tolerance Total 30 × 8 = 240 Lepidostomatidae 10 × 1 = 10 Baetidae 20 × 4 = 80 60 330 = 5.5 Species traits Traits are morphological, behavioral, ecological, or physiological characteristics of species Traits link the environment to species distribution Convert community metric (e.g., richness, abundance, biomass) into proportion of taxa with each trait state Rhithrogena Rhyacophila Small Size Large Size 60% 40% Pteronarcys Hydropsyche Baetis % Chironomids 35 30 Max 25 20 Range Descriptive statistics % Chironomids % Chironomids 30 25 20 # Samples Central tendency 15 Mean or median 3510 30 5 Variance 250 Standard deviation or error20 15 Range 10 Minimum and maximum 5 0 Distribution Histogram of data 15 10 5 0 Min Mean 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Standard deviation Standard errors Urbanized Natural % Chironomids Hypothesis testing For every hypothesis, there is a null For example You observe that shredders eat leaf material, which is a significant portion of benthic organic matter (BOM) Hypothesis: Shredder distribution is dependent on the quantity of BOM Null: Shredder distribution is NOT dependent on BOM quantity Alternative hypothesis: Small streams have more leaf litter per unit area, so shredder abundance is related to the width of streams Null: Shredder abundance is NOT related to stream width Null hypothesis testing Statistics test the null hypothesis P-value is the probability that the null hypothesis is true Or, if the data were randomly generated, P-value is the probability that you would find the same result ANOVA 35 35 30 30 % Chironomids % Chironomids Tests the means and variances of categorical data Two or more samples per category required to calculate variance T-test equivalent to ANOVA with only two categories 25 20 15 10 5 0 25 20 15 10 5 0 Urbanized Natural Urbanized Mixed Natural Regression Tests the variances between two sets of continuous variables May explain relationship (positive or negative) Can compute P-value % Chironomids Will test strength of relationship (R2) 50 40 30 20 10 0 y = 0.5577x + 13.462 R² = 0.8512 0 20 40 % Urbanization 60