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Avian Influenza Modeling
By: John Fujita
Research Institution: Pacific Disaster Center
Research Supervisor: Mike Napier
Home Institution: University of Hawaii, Manoa
Background on Avian Influenza
•Family orthomyxoviradae
•Relative of common flu
•Most prevalent in birds
•Spread
–Direct contact
–Fecal matter
–nasal and ocular discharges
•Symptoms
–Pneumonia, eye infections, pancreatic
damage, and severe respiratory diseases
Economic Impact
• 1983–1984 outbreak of
Highly Pathogenic AI in
the USA
• Destruction of more
than 17 million birds
• $63 million in Federal
funds
• additional $350 million
in increased consumer
costs
Historic Pandemics
• 1918-1919 Spanish Flu
– Worst Pandemic in History
– 50 Million Deaths
– Over 500,000 dead in US
• 1957-1958 Asian Flu
– 70,000 deaths in US
• 1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu
– 34,000 deaths in US
Potential Impact of a Pandemic
• 20-50% of the world human population
infected
• 250 million deaths
"We at WHO [the World Health
Organization] believe that the world is
now in the gravest possible danger of
a pandemic…"
Dr. Shigeru Omi, the WHO's Western
Pacific Regional Director,
23 February 2005
Cycle of Avian Influenza
Domestic birds
Natural avian
influenza cycle
Shore birds
Pandemic
disease cycle
Waterfowl
Mammals
(primarily swine)
Humans
Source from: www.doh.state.fl.us/Disease_ctrl/ epi/htopics/Avian_Influenza.ppt
Recent Breakouts
•108 confirmed human
case studies
•Infection clusters
•First-time infection of
multiple species
•Death rate going down
My Contributions
• Human case studies (at provincial level)
– World Health Organization ~2004
• Animal case studies (at least district level)
– OIE ~1997
• GIS data layers
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–
–
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Poultry and population density
Migratory bird flyways
Airline routes
Geospatial data
• Rainfall, elevation, temperature, humidity, hydrology, wind
direction
•
Conclusion
• MORE FUNDING for PDC
• Saving of millions of lives
Future of Project
Develop knowledge base and gather raw data- John Fujita and Mike Napier
Preliminary Model and Analysis – John Fujita and Mike Napier
Develop contacts and obtain complete data – Allen Clark
Complete Model and Analysis – Mike Napier
Draw insightful conclusions- Mike Napier
Acknowledgements
• Center for Adaptive Optics
– Malika Bell
– Lisa Hunter
– Liz Espinoza
• National Science Foundation
• Maui Economic Development Board
– Isla Yap
– Leslie Willkins
• Maui Community College
– Mark Hoffman
BIG MAHOLOS
• Pacific Disaster Center
– Mike Napier
• This project is supported by the
National Science Foundation Science
and Technology Center for Adaptive
Optics, managed by the University of
California at Santa Cruz under
cooperative agreement No. AST 9876783.
Any Questions?
Preliminary Model