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Thermohaline Overtuning – at Risk?
Detlef Quadfasel, THOR Project Office
KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Germany
http://www.eu-THOR.eu
[email protected]
Core Theme 1
MOC Variability
The variability of the ocean circulation in the North Atlantic has direct
implications for the European climate, and for the global climate through its
effects on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). The EUfunded THOR project ("Thermohaline Overturning: at Risk?") aims at
quantifying the range and probability of changes associated with MOC
variability using palaeoclimate studies, long term observations and
numerical models of ocean circulation. Twenty higher education and
research institutions from 9 European countries cooperate under THOR.
The project is divided into five core themes.
Facts and Figures
Core Theme 2
Model Uncertainty
Core Theme 5
Technological
Advancements
20-years Prediction
Core Theme 4
Predictability
of MOC
•
Research focus: Stability of the ThermoHaline Circulation
•
Duration: 4 years, December 2008 – November 2012
•
Number: 20 participating institutions from 9 European countries
•
5 Core Themes, around 60 Researchers
•
Project cost: 12.95 million Euro
•
EU Funding: 9.27 million Euro
Objectives
Core Theme 3:
Observations of the
North Atlantic MOC
•
Identify induced climate impacts of changes of the THC and the probability
of extreme climate events
•
Develop and operate an optimal ocean observing system for the North
Atlantic component of the THC
•
Forecast the Atlantic THC and its variability until 2025
•
Assess the stability of the THC to increased freshwater run-off from the
Greenland ice sheets for various global warming scenarios.
THOR will develop and operate an optimal ocean observing system for the North Atlantic component of the MOC. This observation system, consisting of arrays of
self contained instruments as well as ship- and space-borne measurements, provide accurate time series of mass, heat and salt fluxes at key locations, allowing for
the first time to assess the strength of the Atlantic MOC.
Overflow volume transports in Denmark Strait and the Faroe Bank
Channel show stable exchanges (1995-2009)
Time series of temperature in the central Labrador Sea
shows an overall warming since 1994
Overflow Jet in Denmark Strait
(red: southward flow)
Mooring work in
harsh weather
Water sampling with CTD and
Microstructure profiler
Time series of MOC transport at 26° N show large
seasonal and interannual variability
Vertical Structure of the Meridional
Overturning Circulation
red: warm upper layer flows
blue: cold deep currents
Participating Institutes: University of Hamburg Germany, Max-Planck Gesellschaft Germany, British Meteorological Office UK, Université Pierre et Marie Curie France, University of Bergen Norway, The University of Reading UK, European Centre
for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts UK, Leibniz-Institute of Marine Science at the University of Kiel Germany, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Netherlands, Danish Meteorological Institute Denmark, Havastovan Faroe Islands, Marine
Research Institute Iceland, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research etherlands, The Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science UK, Scottish Association for Marine Science UK, Natural Environment Research Council UK,
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre Norway, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique France, Commissariat a l’Energie Atomique France, Finnish Institute of Marine Research Finland