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“The frequency and intensity of cyber attacks over space and time”
Ryan R. Brady1
and
Darrell J. Glaser2
December 2011
Abstract
We ask how Internet traffic has grown over time, and to what magnitude does the statistical
series deviate from the long run trend line. We specifically measure the time series properties of
the conditional mean (e.g. the average growth rate over time) and the standard deviation of the
data around the conditional mean. We first determine whether the data is an Autoregressive
Process (i.e. path dependent), or is better characterized by a unit root (i.e. a random walk). This
information helps characterize the underlying distribution, which provides information on the
probability of a large disruption (e.g. a sharp deviation below the conditional mean might be
statistically identified as a random shock or perhaps a cyber attack). Secondly, we explore the
length of shocks, and how shocks spread across space. To address this multidimensional
question, we apply time series econometric methodology to generate impulse response functions
from the data. We simulate shocks to the system and from this, measure how shocks to the
system diffuse across space.
1
United States Naval Academy, Department of Economics, 589 McNair Rd Stop 10, Annapolis MD 21402-5030,
[email protected]
2
United States Naval Academy, Department of Economics, 589 McNair Rd Stop 10, Annapolis MD 21402-5030,
[email protected]