Download Real Rates of Return

McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2012 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Risk and Return
Risk and Return are related.
How?
This chapter will focus on risk and return and their
relationship to the opportunity cost of capital.
11-2
Equity Rates of Return:
A Review
Percentage Return =
Capital Gain + Dividend
Initial Share Price
Dividend Yield =
Capital Gain Yield =
Dividend
Initial Share Price
Capital Gain
Initial Share Price
11-3
Rates of Return: Example
Example: You purchase shares of GE stock at $15.13 on December 31, 2009. You
sell them exactly one year later for $18.29. During this time GE paid $.46 in
dividends per share. Ignoring transaction costs, what is your rate of return, dividend
yield and capital gain yield?
Percentage Return 
$18.29  $15.13  $.46
 23.93%
$15.13
$.46
Dividend Yield =
 3.04%
$15.13
$15.13
Capital Gain Yield  $18.29
 20.89%
$15.13
11-4
Real Rates of Return
Recall the relationship between real rates and nominal rates:
1  real rate of return =
1 + nominal rate of return
1 + inflation rate
Example: Suppose inflation from December 2009 to December 2010 was
1.5%. What was GE stock’s real rate of return, if its nominal rate of return was
23.93%?
11-5
Capital Market History:
Market Indexes
• Market Index - Measure of the investment performance of the
overall market.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average (The Dow)
• Standard & Poor’s Composite Index (S&P 500)
Other Market Indexes?
11-6
Total Returns for Different
Asset Classes
The Value of an Investment of $1 in 1900
11-7
What Drives the Difference in
Total Returns?
Maturity Premium: Extra average return from investing in
long- versus short-term Treasury securities.
Risk Premium: Expected return in excess of risk-free return
as compensation for risk.
11-8
Risk Premium: Example
Interest Rate on
Normal Risk
Expected Market Return =
+
Treasury Bills
Premium
1981: 21.4%
=
14%
+
7.4%
2008:
=
2.2%
+
7.4%
9.6%
11-9
Returns and Risk
How are the expected returns and
the risk of a security related?
11-10
Measuring Risk
What is risk?
How can it be measured?
Variance: Average value of squared deviations from
mean. A measure of volatility.
Standard Deviation: Square root of variance.
Also a
measure of volatility.
11-11
Variance and Standard
Deviation: Example
Coin Toss Game: calculating variance and standard deviation
(assume a mean of 10)
(1)
(2)
(3)
Percent Rate of Return Deviation from Mean Squared Deviation
+ 40
+ 30
900
+ 10
0
0
+ 10
0
0
- 20
- 30
900
Variance = average of squared deviations = 1800 / 4 = 450
Standard deviation = square of root variance =
450 = 21.2%
11-12
Histogram of Returns
What is the relationship
between the volatility of
these securities and their
expected returns?
11-13
Historical Risk
(1900-2010)
11-14
Risk and Diversification
Diversification
Strategy designed to reduce risk by spreading a portfolio
across many investments.
Unique Risk:
Risk factors affecting only that firm. Also called
“diversifiable risk.”
Market Risk:
Economy-wide sources of risk that affect the overall stock
market. Also called “systematic risk.”
11-15
Diversification:
Building a Portfolio
A portfolio’s rate of return is the weighted sum of each asset’s rate of
return.
Two Asset Case:
 fraction of portfolio 
 rate of return 
Portfolio Rate of Return = 
 x 

in
first
asset
on
first
asset




 fraction of portfolio 
 rate of return 
+ 
 x 

in
second
asset
on
second
asset




11-16
Building a Portfolio: Example
Consider the following portfolio:
Stock
Weight
Rate of Return
IBM
wIBM  50%
rIBM  8.3%
Starbucks
wSBUX  25%
rSBUX  12.5%
Walmart
wW  25%
rW  4.7%
What is the portfolio rate of return?
Portfolio Rate of Return =  wIBM  rIBM    wSBUX  rSBUX    wW  rW 
 (50%  8.3%)   25% 12.5%    25%  4.7% 
 8.45%
11-17
Do stock prices move together?
What effect does diversification have on a
portfolio’s total risk, unique risk and market risk?
11-18
Risk and Diversification
11-19
Thinking About Risk
 Message 1
• Some Risks Look Big and Dangerous but Really Are
Diversifiable
 Message 2
• Market Risks Are Macro Risks
 Message 3
• Risk Can Be Measured
11-20