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Chapter 3 Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Methods Measures of Location Measures of Variability Measure of Relative Location and Detecting Outliers Exploratory Data Analysis Measures of Association between Two Variables The Weighted mean and Working with Grouped Data Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. x 1 3.1 Measures of Location Mean (均值) Median (中位数) Mode (众数) Percentiles (百分位数) Quartiles (四分位数) Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 2 Example: Apartment Rents Given below is a sample of monthly rent values ($) for one-bedroom apartments. The data is a sample of 70 apartments in a particular city. The data are presented in ascending order. 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 3 Mean The mean (平均值) of a data set is the average of all the data values. If the data are from a sample, the mean is denoted by x. xi x n If the data are from a population, the mean is denoted by m (mu). xi N Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 4 Example: Apartment Rents Mean xi 34, 356 x 490.80 n 70 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 5 Median The median (中位数)is the measure of location most often reported for annual income and property value data. A few extremely large incomes or property values can inflate the mean. Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 6 Median The median of a data set is the value in the middle when the data items are arranged in ascending order. For an odd number of observations, the median is the middle value. For an even number of observations, the median is the average of the two middle values. Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 7 Example: Apartment Rents Median Median = 50th percentile i = (p/100)n = (50/100)70 = 35 Averaging the 35th and 36th data values: Median = (475 + 475)/2 = 475 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 8 Mode The mode (众数)of a data set is the value that occurs with greatest frequency. The greatest frequency can occur at two or more different values. If the data have exactly two modes, the data are bimodal. (双峰) If the data have more than two modes, the data are multimodal. (多峰) Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 9 Example: Apartment Rents Mode 450 occurred most frequently (7 times) Mode = 450 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 10 Percentiles A percentile (百分位数)provides information about how the data are spread over the interval from the smallest value to the largest value. Admission test scores for colleges and universities are frequently reported in terms of percentiles. Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 11 Percentiles The pth percentile of a data set is a value such that at least p percent of the items take on this value or less and at least (100 - p) percent of the items take on this value or more. • Arrange the data in ascending order. • Compute index i, the position of the pth percentile. i = (p/100)n • If i is not an integer, round up. The pth percentile is the value in the ith position. • If i is an integer, the pth percentile is the average of the values in positions i and i+1. Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 12 Example: Apartment Rents 90th Percentile i = (p/100)n = (90/100)70 = 63 Averaging the 63rd and 64th data values: 90th Percentile = (580 + 590)/2 = 585 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 13 Quartiles Quartiles (四分位数) are specific percentiles First Quartile = 25th Percentile Second Quartile = 50th Percentile = Median Third Quartile = 75th Percentile Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 14 Example: Apartment Rents Third Quartile Third quartile = 75th percentile i = (p/100)n = (75/100)70 = 52.5 = 53 Third quartile = 525 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 15 Measures of Variability It is often desirable to consider measures of variability (dispersion), as well as measures of location. For example, in choosing supplier A or supplier B we might consider not only the average delivery time for each, but also the variability in delivery time for each. Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 16 Measures of Variability Range (极差) Interquartile Range (四分位点内距) Variance (方差) Standard Deviation (标准差) Coefficient of Variation (变异系数) Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 17 Range The range (极差)of a data set is the difference between the largest and smallest data values. It is the simplest measure of variability. It is very sensitive to the smallest and largest data values. Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 18 Example: Apartment Rents Range Range = largest value - smallest value Range = 615 - 425 = 190 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 19 Interquartile Range The interquartile range (四分位点内距)of a data set is the difference between the third quartile and the first quartile. It is the range for the middle 50% of the data. It overcomes the sensitivity to extreme data values. Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 20 Example: Apartment Rents Interquartile Range 3rd Quartile (Q3) = 525 1st Quartile (Q1) = 445 Interquartile Range = Q3 - Q1 = 525 - 445 = 80 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 21 Variance The variance (方差)is a measure of variability that utilizes all the data. x It is based on the difference between the value of each observation (xi) and the mean (x for a sample, for a population). Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 22 Variance The variance is the average of the squared differences between each data value and the mean. If the data set is a sample, the variance is denoted by s2 . s2 2 ( x x ) i n 1 If the data set is a population, the variance is denoted by 2. (sigma) 2 ( x ) i 2 N Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 23 Standard Deviation The standard deviation (标准差)of a data set is the positive square root of the variance. It is measured in the same units as the data, making it more easily comparable, than the variance, to the mean. If the data set is a sample, the standard deviation is denoted s. s s2 If the data set is a population, the standard deviation is denoted (sigma). Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 2 24 Coefficient of Variation The coefficient of variation (变异系数)indicates how large the standard deviation is in relation to the mean. If the data set is a sample, the coefficient of variation is computed as follows: s (100) x If the data set is a population, the coefficient of variation is computed as follows: (100) Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 25 Example: Apartment Rents Variance s n 1 2 ( xi x ) 2 2 , 996.16 Standard Deviation s s2 2996. 47 54. 74 Coefficient of Variation s 54. 74 100 100 11.15 x 490.80 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 26 课堂练习 一项关于大学生体重状况的研究发现,男生的平均体重 为60kg,标准差为5kg;女生的平均体重为50kg,标准 差为5kg。请回答下面的问题: 要求:(1)男生的体重差异大还是女生的体重差异大? 为什么? (2)以磅为单位(1磅=2.2kg)求体重的平均数 和标准差。 (3)粗略地估计一下,男生中有百分之几的人体 重在55kg~65kg之间? (4)粗略地估计一下,女生中有百分之几的人体 重在40kg~60kg之间? Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 27 Chapter 3 Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Methods Measures of Relative Location and Detecting Outliers Exploratory Data Analysis Measures of Association Between Two Variables The Weighted Mean and Working with Grouped Data x Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 28 Measures of Relative Location and Detecting Outliers z-Scores (Z-分数) Chebyshev’s Theorem (切比雪夫定理) Empirical Rule (经验法则) Detecting Outliers (异常值检测) Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 29 z-Scores (Z-分数) The z-score is often called the standardized value. It denotes the number of standard deviations a data value xi is from the mean. xi x zi s A data value less than the sample mean will have a zscore less than zero. A data value greater than the sample mean will have a z-score greater than zero. A data value equal to the sample mean will have a zscore of zero. Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 30 Example: Apartment Rents z-Score of Smallest Value (425) xi x 425 490.80 z 1. 20 s 54. 74 Standardized Values for Apartment Rents -1.20 -0.93 -0.75 -0.47 -0.20 0.35 1.54 -1.11 -0.93 -0.75 -0.38 -0.11 0.44 1.54 -1.11 -0.93 -0.75 -0.38 -0.01 0.62 1.63 -1.02 -0.84 -0.75 -0.34 -0.01 0.62 1.81 -1.02 -0.84 -0.75 -0.29 -0.01 0.62 1.99 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. -1.02 -0.84 -0.56 -0.29 0.17 0.81 1.99 -1.02 -0.84 -0.56 -0.29 0.17 1.06 1.99 -1.02 -0.84 -0.56 -0.20 0.17 1.08 1.99 -0.93 -0.75 -0.47 -0.20 0.17 1.45 2.27 -0.93 -0.75 -0.47 -0.20 0.35 1.45 2.27 31 Example:Z-scores for the class-size Sample mean: 44; sample standard deviation:8 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 32 Chebyshev’s Theorem (切比雪夫定理) At least (1 - 1/z2) of the items in any data set will be within z standard deviations of the mean, where z is any value greater than 1. • At least 75% of the items must be within z = 2 standard deviations of the mean. • At least 89% of the items must be within z = 3 standard deviations of the mean. • At least 94% of the items must be within z = 4 standard deviations of the mean. 与均值的距离必定在z个标准差以内的数据比例至少为(1 - 1/z2) Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 33 Example: the midterm test scores the midterm test scores for 100 students in a college business statistics course had a mean of 70 and a standard deviation of 5. How many students had test scores between 60 and 80? How many students had test scores between 58 and 82? 60-80: • Z60 =(60-70)/5=-2 ; Z80=(80-70)/5=2; • At least (1 - 1/(2)2) = 0.75 or 75% of the students have scores between 60 and 80. 58-82? Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 34 Example: Apartment Rents Chebyshev’s Theorem (切比雪夫定理) Let z = 1.5 with x = 490.80 and s = 54.74 At least (1 - 1/(1.5)2) = 1 - 0.44 = 0.56 or 56% of the rent values must be between x - z(s) = 490.80 - 1.5(54.74) = 409 and x + z(s) = 490.80 + 1.5(54.74) = 573 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 35 Example: Apartment Rents Chebyshev’s Theorem (continued) Actually, 86% of the rent values are between 409 and 573. 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 36 Empirical Rule(经验法则) For data having a bell-shaped distribution: • Approximately 68% of the data values will be within one standard deviation of the mean. Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 37 Empirical Rule For data having a bell-shaped distribution: • Approximately 95% of the data values will be within two standard deviations of the mean. Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 38 Empirical Rule For data having a bell-shaped distribution: • Almost all (99.7%) of the items will be within three standard deviations of the mean. Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 39 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 40 Example: Apartment Rents Empirical Rule Within +/- 1s Within +/- 2s Within +/- 3s 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 Interval 436.06 to 545.54 381.32 to 600.28 326.58 to 655.02 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 % in Interval 48/70 = 69% 68/70 = 97% 70/70 = 100% 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 41 应用:six sigma(六西格玛) 用“σ”度量质量特性总体上对目标值 的偏离程度。几个西格玛是一种表 示品质的统计尺度。任何一个工作 程序或工艺过程都可用几个西格玛 表示。 六个西格玛可解释为每一百万个机 会中有3.4个出错的机会,即合格率 是99.99966%。而三个西格玛的合 格率只有93.32%。 六个西格玛的管理方法重点是将所 有的工作作为一种流程,采用量化 的方法 分析流程中影响质量的因素 ,找出最关键的因素加以改进从而 达到更高的客户满意度。 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 42 Detecting Outliers (异常值检测) An outlier is an unusually small or unusually large value in a data set. A data value with a z-score less than -3 or greater than +3 might be considered an outlier. It might be: • an incorrectly recorded data value • a data value that was incorrectly included in the data set • a correctly recorded data value that belongs in the data set Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 43 Example: Apartment Rents Detecting Outliers The most extreme z-scores are -1.20 and 2.27. Using |z| > 3 as the criterion for an outlier, there are no outliers in this data set. Standardized Values for Apartment Rents -1.20 -0.93 -0.75 -0.47 -0.20 0.35 1.54 -1.11 -0.93 -0.75 -0.38 -0.11 0.44 1.54 -1.11 -0.93 -0.75 -0.38 -0.01 0.62 1.63 -1.02 -0.84 -0.75 -0.34 -0.01 0.62 1.81 -1.02 -0.84 -0.75 -0.29 -0.01 0.62 1.99 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. -1.02 -0.84 -0.56 -0.29 0.17 0.81 1.99 -1.02 -0.84 -0.56 -0.29 0.17 1.06 1.99 -1.02 -0.84 -0.56 -0.20 0.17 1.08 1.99 -0.93 -0.75 -0.47 -0.20 0.17 1.45 2.27 -0.93 -0.75 -0.47 -0.20 0.35 1.45 2.27 44 Exploratory Data Analysis (探索性数据分析) Five-Number Summary (五数据概括法) Box Plot (箱形图) Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 45 Five-Number Summary Smallest Value (最小值) First Quartile (第一四分位数) Median (中位数) Third Quartile (第三四分位数) Largest Value (最大值) Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 46 Example: Apartment Rents Five-Number Summary Lowest Value = 425 First Quartile = 450 Median = 475 Third Quartile = 525 Largest Value = 615 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 47 Box Plot A box is drawn with its ends located at the first and third quartiles. A vertical line is drawn in the box at the location of the median. Limits are located (not drawn) using the interquartile range (IQR). • The lower limit is located 1.5(IQR) below Q1. • The upper limit is located 1.5(IQR) above Q3. • Data outside these limits are considered outliers. Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 48 Box Plot (Continued) Whiskers (dashed lines) are drawn from the ends of the box to the smallest and largest data values inside the limits. The locations of each outlier is shown with the symbol * . Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 49 Example: Apartment Rents Box Plot Lower Limit: Q1 - 1.5(IQR) = 450 - 1.5(75) = 337.5 Upper Limit: Q3 + 1.5(IQR) = 525 + 1.5(75) = 637.5 There are no outliers. 37 5 40 0 42 5 45 0 47 5 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 50 0 52 5 550 575 600 625 50 Measures of Association Between Two Variables Covariance (协方差) Correlation Coefficient (相关系数) Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 51 Covariance The covariance (协方差)is a measure of the linear association between two variables. If the data sets are samples, the covariance is denoted by sxy. ( xi x )( yi y ) sxy n 1 If the data sets are populations, the covariance is denoted by xy. xy ( xi x )( yi y ) N Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 52 Covariance Positive values indicate a positive relationship. Negative values indicate a negative relationship. Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 53 Correlation Coefficient (相关系数) The coefficient can take on values between -1 and +1. Values near -1 indicate a strong negative linear relationship. Values near +1 indicate a strong positive linear relationship. If the data sets are samples, the coefficient is rxy. rxy sxy sx s y If the data sets are populations, the coefficient is xy Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. xy x y xy . 54 The Weighted Mean and Working with Grouped Data Weighted Mean (加权平均值) Mean for Grouped Data (分组数据均值) Variance for Grouped Data (分组数据方差) Standard Deviation for Grouped Data (分组数据标 准差) Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 55 Weighted Mean (加权平均值) When the mean is computed by giving each data value a weight that reflects its importance, it is referred to as a weighted mean. In the computation of a grade point average (GPA), the weights are the number of credit hours earned for each grade. When data values vary in importance, the analyst must choose the weight that best reflects the importance of each value. Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 56 Weighted Mean x = wi xi wi where: xi = value of observation i wi = weight for observation i Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 57 Grouped Data The weighted mean computation can be used to obtain approximations of the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the grouped data. To compute the weighted mean, we treat the midpoint of each class as though it were the mean of all items in the class. We compute a weighted mean of the class midpoints using the class frequencies as weights. Similarly, in computing the variance and standard deviation, the class frequencies are used as weights. Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 58 Mean for Grouped Data (分组数据均值) Sample Data fM x f i fM i i i Population Data i N where: fi = frequency of class i Mi = midpoint of class i Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 59 Example: Apartment Rents Given below is the previous sample of monthly rents for one-bedroom apartments presented here as grouped data in the form of a frequency distribution. Rent ($) Frequency 420-439 8 440-459 17 460-479 12 480-499 8 500-519 7 520-539 4 540-559 2 560-579 4 580-599 2 600-619 6 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 60 Example: Apartment Rents Mean for Grouped Data Rent ($) 420-439 440-459 460-479 480-499 500-519 520-539 540-559 560-579 580-599 600-619 Total fi 8 17 12 8 7 4 2 4 2 6 70 Mi 429.5 449.5 469.5 489.5 509.5 529.5 549.5 569.5 589.5 609.5 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. f iMi 3436.0 7641.5 5634.0 3916.0 3566.5 2118.0 1099.0 2278.0 1179.0 3657.0 34525.0 34, 525 493. 21 70 This approximation differs by $2.41 from the actual sample mean of $490.80. x 61 Variance for Grouped Data (分组数据方差) Sample Data 2 f ( M x ) i i s2 n 1 Population Data 2 f ( M ) i i 2 N Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 62 Example: Apartment Rents Variance for Grouped Data s2 3, 017.89 Standard Deviation for Grouped Data (分组数据标 准差) s 3, 017.89 54. 94 This approximation differs by only $.20 from the actual standard deviation of $54.74. Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 63 小结 中心位置的度量:均值、中位数、众数 数据集其它位置的描述:百分位数,四分位点 变异程度或分散程度:极差、四分位点内距、方差、 标准差、变异系数、Z分数、切比雪夫定理 构建五数概括法和箱形图 两变量之间的协方差和相关系数 加权平均值、分组数据的均值、方差和标准差 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 64 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 65 Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 66 End of Chapter 3, Part B Copyright © 2010, HJ Shanghai Normal Uni. 67