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Normal Distribution Z-scores put to use! Section 2.2 Reference Text: The Practice of Statistics, Fourth Edition. Starnes, Yates, Moore Today’s Objectives • The 68-95-99.7 Rule • State mean an standard deviation for The Standard Normal Distribution • Given a raw score from a normal distribution, find the standardized “z-score” • Use the Table of Standard Normal Probabilities to find the area under a given section of the Standard Normal curve. The 68-95-99.7 Rule • How many standard deviations do you think it would take for us to have the entire sample or population accounted for and just have a .03% uncertainty? • In other words, how many standard deviations away from the mean encompasses almost all objects in the study? The 68-95-99.7 Rule • 3! • The 68-95-99.7 Rule describes the percent of observations fall within 1,2 or 3 standard deviations. Look at the visual: The 68-95-99.7 Rule • So, – Approximately 68% of the observations fall within of the mean µ – Approximately 95% of the observations fall within 2 of the mean µ – Approximately 99.7% of the observations fall within 3 of the mean µ The 68-95-99.7 Rule • If I have data within 2 standard deviations, then I'm accounting for 95% of observations • Question: what percent is in the left tail? You Try! • The distribution of number of movies AP Statistic students watch in two weeks is close to normal. Suppose the distribution is exactly Normal with mean µ= 6.84 and standard deviation = 1.55 (this is non fiction data) • A) Sketch a normal density curve for this distribution of movies watched. Label the points that are one, two, and three SD away from the mean. • B) What percent of the movies is less that 3.74? Show your work! • C) What percent of scores are between 5.29 and 9.94? Show work! • Remember: Always put your answers back into context! Break! - 5 Minutes Standardizing Observations • All normal distributions have fundamentally the same shape. • If we measure the x axis in units of size σ about a center of 0, then they are all exactly the same curve. • This is called the Standard Normal Curve – We abbreviate the normal dist. As N( µ, ) • To standardize observations, we change from x values (the raw observations) z values (the standardized observations) by the formula: z x The Standard Normal Distribution • Notice that the z-score formula always subtracts μ from each observation. – So the mean is always shifted to zero • Also notice that the shifted values are divided by σ, the standard deviation. – So the units along the z-axis represent numbers of standard deviations • Thus the Standard Normal Distribution is always N(0,1). Example! • The heights of young women are: N(64.5, 2.5) • Use the formula to find the z-score of a woman 68 inches tall. 68 64.5 z 1.4 2.5 • A woman’s standardized height is the number of standard deviations by which her height differs from the mean height of all young women. Normal Distribution Calculations • What proportion of all young women are less than 68 inches tall? – Notice that this does not fall conveniently on one of the σ borders – We already found that 68 inches corresponds to a z-score of 1.4 • So what proportion of all standardized observations fall to the left of z = 1.4? • Since the area under the Standard Normal Curve is always 1, we can ask instead, what is the area under the curve and to the left of z=1.4 – For that, we need a table!! The Standard Normal Table • Find Table A of the handout – It is also in your textbook in the very back • Z-scores (to the nearest tenth) are in the left column – The other 10 columns round z to the nearest hundredth • Find z = 1.4 in the table and read the area – You should find area to the left = .9192 • So the proportion of observations less than z = 1.4 is about 92% – Now put the answer in context: “About 92% of all young women are 68 inches tall or less.” What about area above a value? • Still using the N(64.5, 2.5) distribution, what proportion of young women have a height of 61.5 inches or taller? • Z = (61.5 – 64.5)/2.5 = -1.2 • From Table A, area to the left of -1.2 =.1151 – So area to the right = 1 - .1151 = .8849 • So about 88.5% of young women are 61.5” tall or taller. What about area between two values? • What proportion of young women are between 61.5” and 68” tall? • We already know 68” gives z = 1.4 and area to the left of .9192 • We also know 61.5” gives z = -1.2 and area to the left of .1151 • So just subtract: .9192 - .1151 = .8041 • So about 80% of young women are between 61.5” and 68” tall – Remember to write your answer IN CONTEXT!!! Given a proportion, find the observation x • SAT Verbal scores are N(505, 110). How high must you score to be in the top 10%? • If you are in the top 10%, there must be 90% below you (to the left). • Find .90 (or close to it) in the body of Table A. What is the z-score? – You should have found z = 1.28 • Now solve the z definition equation for x z x x 505 110 x 1.28 110 505 x 645.8 1.28 • So you need a score of at least 646 to be in the top 10%. How to Solve Problems Involving Normal Distribution • State: Express the problem in terms of the observed variable x • Plan: draw a picture of the distribution and shade the area of interest under the curve. • Do: Preform the calculations – Standardize x to restate the problem in terms of standard normal variable z – Use Table A and the fact that the total area under the curve is 1 to find the required area under the standard normal curve • Conclude: Write your conclusion in context of the problem. • Lets look at TB pg 120 “Tiger on the Range” Today’s Objectives • The 68-95-99.7 Rule • State mean an standard deviation for The Standard Normal Distribution • Given a raw score from a normal distribution, find the standardized “z-score” • Use the Table of Standard Normal Probabilities to find the area under a given section of the Standard Normal curve. Homework TB Pg 131: 41-74 (multiples of 3)