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Transcript
A World Transformed
The Consequences of Climate Change
and Human Land Use
Wolfgang Lucht
•
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Chair, Research Domain „Earth System Analysis“
May 2004
October 2006
April 2006
März 2006
30 October 2006
Costs of Climate Change
Benefits of Avoidance
Nobel Peace Prize
12 November 2007
Al Gore
IPCC
(Rajendra Pachauri)
IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM
Global Temperature Increase
Three Scenarios (Different Emissions)
in 20 Years
in 90 Years
Scale Challenges in Global Vegetation Modelling
global biogeochemistry
Biosphere
Ecosystems
disturbance and sucsession
storms, fire
evolution
carbon allocation
and growth
geographical
distribution of
vegetation types
plant seasonality
Plants
Leaves
competition for ressources
and ecological strategies
plant
metabolism
water- and
nutrient budget
Cells
photosynthesis
Molecules
Seconds
Source: W. Lucht, PIK
Minutes
Hours
Years
Decades
Centuries
LPJmL
Global Model of Natural Vegetation & Agriculture
Sitch et al., GCB, 2003; Gerten et al., J. Hydrol., 2004; Bondeau et al., GCB, 2007
Lucht et al. 2007; IPCC 2007
No Effect
Weak Effect
Moderate Effect
Strong Effect
What do the ecologists say?
Hare, Avoiding Dangerous
Climate Change, 2006
No Effect
Weak Effect
Moderate Effect
Strong Effect
What do the ecologists say?
Hare, Avoiding Dangerous
Climate Change, 2006
Earth is under
(at least) Double Pressure
Natural Productivity
of the Land Biosphere
Photosynthetic fixation (plant growth):
+ 65.5 billion tons of carbon / year
Haberl et al.,
PNAS 104, 2007
Changes in Land Productivity
from Land Surface Alterations
Haberl et al.,
PNAS 104, 2007
Human interference: altered land surfaces
–6.3 billion tons of carbon / year
Compare: Fossil fuel emissions ~ –7 bn tons C/year
Human Appropriation of
Photosynthetic Production
Human interference and harvest:
–15.6 billion tons of carbon / year
Haberl et al.,
PNAS 104, 2007
Compare: Fossil fuel emissions ~ –7 bn tons C/year
altered land surfaces – 6.3 GtC/yr
harvest – 8.2 GtC/yr
fires – 1.1 GtC/yr
backflows + 2.2 GtC/yr
Haberl et al.,
PNAS 104, 2007
Human Appropriation of
Photosynthetic Production
Human interference and harvest:
= 22% of Natural Net Primary Production
Human Appropriation of
Photosynthetic Production
Assumption: 200 EJ/Year of Bioenergy available
Emissions GtC/year
30
25
Portfolio of
measures for
slashing CO2
emissions
20
15
10
5
2000
O. Edenhofer and team, PIK, 2007
2050
2100
studies of supply
studies of demand
model calculations
Berndes et al., 2003
LPJmL
Pattern of Biomass Production on Deforested Land
IUCN areas and frontier forests protected
100% current cropland set aside
130% current cropland set aside
Energy:
150 EJ/yr
8 Mio km2
53 GtC C-loss
8.4 Mio km2
60 GtC C-loss
24 Mio km2
140 GtC C-loss
Energy:
400 EJ/yr
Erbrecht and Lucht, 2008
Global Bioenergy Potential
(2100, 9 bn people, increased cal/cap)
ExaJoule Primary Energy
ExaJoule
450
Yield increase
annual (total) %
400
350
300
1.1
1.1(200)
(200)
0.9
0.9(145)
(145)
0.7
0.7(101)
(101)
0.5
0.5(65)
(65)
250
200
150
100
50
FAO 1970-95:
1.3 % annual
0
0.0
0.1
0.1 (11)
(11)
0.2
0.2 (22)
(22)
0.3
0.3 (35)
(35)
0.4
0.4(49)
(49)
Expansion of
of cropland
cropland relative
relative to
to current:
current: annual
annual(total)
(total) %
%
H. Lotze-Campen, PIK, 2008
Metabolic Effects of
Industrialisation
Industrialisation is a revolution in the
socioeconomic metabolism and the structure of society.
Source: M. Fischer-Kowalski, iff Vienna
Currently ongoing:
Continued Industrialisation
of Land Use
Crutzen and Steffen, 2004
From Co-Evolution … into the Anthropocene
Vegetation Effects
on Climate
Bioclimatic
Effects
Geosphere
Geosphere
Biosphere
Climate
Change
Climate
Change
Impacts
Biosphere
Human
Land Use
Agriculture & Forestry
Anthroposphere
The Challenge:
Emergence of Conscious Global Action
W. Lucht, PIK
How can Earth be understood as a system?
1.
Digital Mimicry
Principle
2.
Bird‘s Eye
Principle
3.
Lilliput
Principle
Earth System Modelling
of Intermediate Complexity
Earth Observation,
Macroscopes
Environmental
Experiments
Schellnhuber, Nature, 1999
Plotting a future course for the Earth System
Required
to avoid cliffs
& narrows
• Good Navigation Charts
( Computer Models)
Plotting a future course for the Earth System
Required
to avoid cliffs
& narrows
• Good Navigation Charts
( Computer Models)
• Constant Observation
from the Crow‘s Nest
( Earth Observations)
Tipping Points in the Earth System
Lenton et al., PNAS, 2008
Plotting a future course for the Earth System
Required
to avoid cliffs
& narrows
• Good Navigation Charts
( Computer Models)
• Constant Observation
from the Crow‘s Nest
( Earth Observations)
• Be prepared!
( Expect Surprises)
The Challenge: Emergence of
Conscious Global Action
The Anthropocene
Vegetation Effects
on Climate
Bioclimatic
Effects
Geosphere
Biosphere
Climate
Change
Climate
Change
Impacts
Human
Land Use
Agriculture & Forestry
Anthroposphere
W. Lucht, PIK
A World Transformed
The Consequences of Climate Change
and Human Land Use
Wolfgang Lucht
•
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Chair, Research Domain „Earth System Analysis“