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• • • • • • • CCaR Project Background IPCC Framework for CCA DRM Approach to Urban Resilience Urban Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Indicators Metro Manila Profile Designing Evidence-based Decision Support Systems Building a mainstreaming toolkit • CCaR - Coastal Cities at Risk : Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate Change in Coastal Megacities 2011-2015 • Funded under the International Research Initiative on Adaptation to Climate Change or IRIACC by IDRC and the Canadian Tri-Councils • Gordon McBean (UWO) and Anond Snidvongs (Chula, GISTDA) • Systems dynamics approach to urban risk reduction; develop an original city resilience simulator tool (Simonovic) • Vancouver, Lagos, Bangkok and Metro Manila • Atmospheric physicists, coastal and marine geologists, epidemiologists , sociologists, geomatics specialists , engineers, planners, science-policy communications experts The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation • Risk as the compounding effect of Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability • Resilience as the ability of complex systems to respond and recover in space and over time • Inter- and trans-disciplinary investigations and validation of physical, socio-economic, health, organizational and economic indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity • Building evidence-based decision support systems using climate modeling (downscaling), remote sensing and geographic information systems and statistical analysis • Designing the Risk Simulation tool • Building a toolkit for mainstreaming • Economic – Contribution to NCR GDP, CCA-DRR related Infrastructure Investment plans and Projects • Social – Population, Poverty Incidence, Age, Gender, School Enrollment, Literacy • Health – Number of Hospitals and Barangay Health Centers, Physicians and beds per 10,000 inhabitants, Number Persons with Access to clean water, morbidity and mortality of waterborne and tropical diseases (dengue, malaria and TB), Nutrition, Life Expectancy, DALYs • Governance – Evidence-based CCA-DRR Decision-Making linkages between National-Metro-City, Local CCA-DRR planning and decision-making, environmental quality and land use Adapted from the World Risk Report • 600 sq. km. • 12 Million people in 16 cities and 1 Municipality • Quezon City has the highest population with 2.7M people in 166 sq km • Manila has the highest population density with 1.6M in 38.5 sq km • NCR contributed 35.7 percent to Philippines GDP in 2011(NSCB) • All are 1st class cities , except Navotas which is 2nd class and Manila and Quezon City which are in a special class • Port Area Manila had the highest poverty incidence as of 2009 A • From the 1960s to the 2000s there has been an increase in days with heavy rainfall • Overall rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclones is increasing • Increases in rainfall are due to Tropical Storms and Tropical Depressions rather than Typhoons • Initial scenarios show a potential increase in rainfall in the monsoon season • Missing and constricted rivers • Ground subsidence • Land use, densification • Industrial and Commercial Development • Informal Settlements Projected Rainfall Change 2020s ~5-20% Potential changes in rainy season rainfall due to GW: • 5-20% increase in rainfall in north-western regions • Increase occurs at peak of monsoon season • Increase is due to more frequent occurrence of heavy rainfall Missing Rivers Slide courtesy of Dr. Fernando Siringan Slide courtesy of Dr. Fernando Siringan CHOKE POINTS IN PASIG RIVER Slide courtesy of Dr. Fernando Siringan Slide courtesy of Dr. Fernando P. Siringan 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1972 1979 1989 1999 2009 VEGETATION URBAN Legend MUNICIPAL BOUNDARY BUILT-UP 1972 BUILT-UP 1979 BUILT-UP 1989 BUILT-UP 1999 BUILT-UP 2009 1972 2009 1979 2009 Areas of Concentration 1972 1972 1979 1979 San Juan QC Mandaluyong South CaloocanNavotas Makati Pasig Taguig Parañaque Parañaque Muntinlupa Marikina Taguig 1989 1999 1989 Majority can be seen in the Western fringes of Metro Manila Some are in Pasig and Taguig 1999 2009 Valenzuela Valenzuela-QC PasigMandaluyong Pasig-Marikina Pasay Taguig Taguig Muntinlupa Parañaque Las Piñas 2009 North Caloocan North Caloocan Navotas Malabon South Caloocan Navotas Malabon South Caloocan QC Navotas Malabon South Caloocan QC QC Manila Manila CaintaTaytay 1997 North Caloocan Manila MakatiTaguig CaintaTaytay CaintaTaytay 2000 2010 METRO MANILA RISK INDEX ? DR. G.T. Narisma • • • • • • • • • • Dr. Emma Porio Dr. Gemma Narisma Dr. Celine Vicente Dr. Kendra Gotangco Dr Fernando Siringan Dr. Posa Perez FORIN Team Jessica Bercilla Julie Dado Emil Gozo,Justin See, John Paul Dalupang, Liz del Castillo, JoEd Perez • Raul Dayawon, Patricia Sanchez • • • • • • • UNESCO ChristianAid UK START IRDR ICSU NCDR JAXA