Download Kathmandu.SACIWaters Overview of CCaR

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
CCaR Project Background
IPCC Framework for CCA DRM
Approach to Urban Resilience
Urban Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Indicators
Metro Manila Profile
Designing Evidence-based Decision Support Systems
Building a mainstreaming toolkit
• CCaR - Coastal Cities at Risk : Building Adaptive Capacity for
Managing Climate Change in Coastal Megacities 2011-2015
• Funded under the International Research Initiative on
Adaptation to Climate Change or IRIACC by IDRC and the
Canadian Tri-Councils
• Gordon McBean (UWO) and Anond Snidvongs (Chula, GISTDA)
• Systems dynamics approach to urban risk reduction; develop an
original city resilience simulator tool (Simonovic)
• Vancouver, Lagos, Bangkok and Metro Manila
• Atmospheric physicists, coastal and marine geologists,
epidemiologists , sociologists, geomatics specialists , engineers,
planners, science-policy communications experts
The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters
to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
• Risk as the compounding effect of Hazard, Exposure and
Vulnerability
• Resilience as the ability of complex systems to respond and
recover in space and over time
• Inter- and trans-disciplinary investigations and validation of
physical, socio-economic, health, organizational and economic
indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity
• Building evidence-based decision support systems using climate
modeling (downscaling), remote sensing and geographic
information systems and statistical analysis
• Designing the Risk Simulation tool
• Building a toolkit for mainstreaming
• Economic – Contribution to NCR GDP, CCA-DRR related
Infrastructure Investment plans and Projects
• Social – Population, Poverty Incidence, Age, Gender, School
Enrollment, Literacy
• Health – Number of Hospitals and Barangay Health Centers,
Physicians and beds per 10,000 inhabitants, Number Persons
with Access to clean water, morbidity and mortality of
waterborne and tropical diseases (dengue, malaria and TB),
Nutrition, Life Expectancy, DALYs
• Governance – Evidence-based CCA-DRR Decision-Making
linkages between National-Metro-City, Local CCA-DRR planning
and decision-making, environmental quality and land use
Adapted from the World Risk Report
• 600 sq. km.
• 12 Million people in 16 cities and 1 Municipality
• Quezon City has the highest population with 2.7M people in
166 sq km
• Manila has the highest population density with 1.6M in 38.5 sq
km
• NCR contributed 35.7 percent to Philippines GDP in
2011(NSCB)
• All are 1st class cities , except Navotas which is 2nd class and
Manila and Quezon City which are in a special class
• Port Area Manila had the highest poverty incidence as of 2009
A
• From the 1960s to the 2000s there has been an increase in
days with heavy rainfall
• Overall rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclones is increasing
• Increases in rainfall are due to Tropical Storms and Tropical
Depressions rather than Typhoons
• Initial scenarios show a potential increase in rainfall in the
monsoon season
• Missing and constricted rivers
• Ground subsidence
• Land use, densification
• Industrial and Commercial Development
• Informal Settlements
Projected Rainfall Change 2020s
~5-20%
Potential changes in rainy
season rainfall due to GW:
• 5-20% increase in rainfall
in north-western regions
• Increase occurs at peak of
monsoon season
• Increase is due to more
frequent occurrence of heavy
rainfall
Missing Rivers
Slide courtesy of Dr. Fernando Siringan
Slide courtesy of Dr. Fernando Siringan
CHOKE POINTS IN PASIG
RIVER
Slide courtesy of Dr. Fernando Siringan
Slide courtesy of Dr. Fernando P. Siringan
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1972 1979 1989 1999 2009
VEGETATION
URBAN
Legend
MUNICIPAL BOUNDARY
BUILT-UP 1972
BUILT-UP 1979
BUILT-UP 1989
BUILT-UP 1999
BUILT-UP 2009
1972
2009
1979
2009
Areas of Concentration
1972
1972
1979
1979
San Juan
QC
Mandaluyong
South CaloocanNavotas
Makati
Pasig
Taguig
Parañaque
Parañaque
Muntinlupa
Marikina
Taguig
1989
1999
1989
Majority can be
seen in the
Western fringes
of Metro Manila
Some are in
Pasig and
Taguig
1999
2009
Valenzuela
Valenzuela-QC
PasigMandaluyong
Pasig-Marikina
Pasay
Taguig
Taguig
Muntinlupa
Parañaque
Las Piñas
2009
North
Caloocan
North
Caloocan
Navotas
Malabon
South Caloocan
Navotas
Malabon
South Caloocan
QC
Navotas
Malabon
South Caloocan
QC
QC
Manila
Manila
CaintaTaytay
1997
North
Caloocan
Manila
MakatiTaguig
CaintaTaytay
CaintaTaytay
2000
2010
METRO MANILA RISK INDEX ?
DR. G.T. Narisma
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Dr. Emma Porio
Dr. Gemma Narisma
Dr. Celine Vicente
Dr. Kendra Gotangco
Dr Fernando Siringan
Dr. Posa Perez
FORIN Team
Jessica Bercilla
Julie Dado
Emil Gozo,Justin See, John Paul Dalupang, Liz del Castillo, JoEd
Perez
• Raul Dayawon, Patricia Sanchez
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
UNESCO
ChristianAid UK
START
IRDR
ICSU
NCDR
JAXA