Download 6 - biodiversity

CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM AND REGION
Prof.Dr. Nguyen Duc Ngu
Center for Hydrometeorology and
Environment
Prof. Dr. Nguyen Trong Hieu
GEF/SGP Vietnam National Steering Committee

1. OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE’S CHARACTERISTICS IN VIETNAM

2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE TRENDS OVER THE PAST 100
YEARS

3. CURRENT STATUS ON GREEN HOUSE GAS (GHGs)
EMISSIONS IN VIETNAM

4. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN VIETNAM

5. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM
1. OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE’S CHARACTERISTICS IN VIETNAM
1.1 Monsoon tropical climate in a penisular of a greate
European – Asian continent
+
+
+
+
Internal tropic heat radiation
Monsoon circle in South Eastern Asia
Diverse patterns of humidity and temperature
Much of natural disasters: hoarfrost. storms. typhoons. droughts…
1.2 Parameters of some basic factors
+ Total heat radiation: 85-190 kcal/cm2/year
+ Balanced heat radiation: 40- 120kcal/cm2/year
+ Total number of sun shire hours: 1400-3000 hour/year
+ Average temperature: 13-28C (-3.2 – 42.5)
+ Average rainfall: 700- 5000 mm
+ Number of cold front (FRL): 26
+ Number of tropical cyclones: 11(in Southern China Sea).
6.9(Vietnam)
1.3 CLIMATE SEASONS




Climate season: V- X
Cold season: XI- IV
Rainy season:
Hot. humid monsoon (Northern region. Central Highland.
Southern region) : V– X
 Cold. dry monsoon (Northern Central region. Southern Central
region):
IX-XII
 Storm season: VI- XII
 Drought season:
+ Northern region. Central Highland. Southern region : XI – IV
+ Northern Central region. Central region: VI- VII
+ Southern Central region :
III- VIII
1.4 Region-based climate classification
 Figure 1: Climate region in Vietnam
2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE TRENDS OVER
THE PAST 100 YEARS

Feature
Table 2.1: Standard variation and deviation of frequency FRL
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VII
IX
X
XI
XII
year
Standard
variatio
n (time)
1.57
1.04
1.04
1.39
1.07
1.36
0.22
0.36
1.10
1.10
1.68
0.94
4.36
Deviation (%)
39.3
30.2
30.2
53.5
41.1
97.1
180.0
91.7
45.8
46.7
27.6
16.0
220.
0
2.2 Table 2.5: Frequency of tropical cyclones. start. mature and end
Season of tropical
cyclones
Start
Mature
End
Feature
N. of years
Percentage
(%)
N. of years
Percentage
(%)
N. of years
Percentage
(%)
III
1
2.5
0
0.0
0
0.0
IV
2
5.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
V
3
7.5
0
0.0
0
0.0
VI
18
45.0
1
2.5
0
0.0
VII
10
25.0
3
7.5
0
0.0
VIII
3
7.5
7
17.5
0
0.0
IX
1
2.5
14
35.0
5
12.5
X
2
5.0
12
30.0
7
17.5
XI
0
0.0
3
7.5
19
47.5
XII
0
0.0
0
0.0
8
20.0
I
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
II
0
0.0
0
0.0
1
2.5
Total
40
100.0
4.0
100.0
40
100.0
.
2 3 CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE
Table 2.6: Standard variation of some features of temperature in
some typical locations (0C).
Average temperature
LOcation
Monitoring
station
I
IV
VII
X
Year
Highest
temperat
ure in a
year
Lowest
temperatur
e in a year
North West
Lai Chau
1.0
0.9
0.5
0.8
0.3
1.33
2.45
North East
Sa Pa
1.5
1.1
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.72
1.17
Red river delta
Hanoi
1.4
1.2
0.5
0.9
0.5
1.07
1.46
Northern Central
region
Vinh
1.4
1.3
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.82
1.37
Southern Central
region
Da Nang
1.1
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.93
1.51
Highland
Da Lat
0.7
0.6
0.3
0.4
0.3
1.29
1.72
Mekong River delta
Tan Son
Nhat
0.9
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.69
1.38
2.4 CHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERN

Table 2.7: frequency of coldest and hottest months
Feature
Month
Coldest
XII
I
II
Hanoi
24
47
Ad Nan
25
45
Tan Son Nat
XI
Hottest
6
III
VI
VII
VIII
29
40
53
7
68
7
49
36
15
49
0
3
IV
77
V
20
2.5 CHANGES IN RAINY SEASON
Table 2.8: Standard variation (S; mm) and variation of rainfall (Sr; %)
measured in some typical locations
Location
Monitoring
station
North West
Lai Chau
North East
Sa Pa
Red River Delta
Hanoi
Northern Central
region
Vinh
Southern Central
region
Da Nang
Highland
Da Lat
Mekong River Delta
Tan Son
Nhat
Features
I
IV
VII
X
Year
S
29.0
55.5
129.3
61.9
286.7
Sr
99
42
28
68
14
S
46.4
75.2
161.9
113.6
402.8
Sr
69
36
36
54
14
S
21.6
53.4
101.8
104.8
320.0
Sr
102
55
39
72
19
S
29.0
37.7
119.2
353.0
514.0
Sr
55
59
102
69
25
S
76.6
50.7
83.1
276.6
545.4
Sr
98
143
98
44
26
S
12.1
89.8
83.2
100.3
237.1
Sr
159
55
36
41
13
S
19.3
50.7
93.5
91.8
284.9
Sr
140
101
32
34
15
2.6 TRENDS IN CLIMATE CHANGE
Variations in years and rainfall pattern in hanoi
3000
2500
R(mm)
2000
1500
1000
y = 0.3391x + 1644.8
500
n?m
Significant signs of Climate Change trends




Less dizzily rain
Less mist
Increased or decreased rainfall in centers
Storms and tropical pressures tend to happen more at the end of
the season
 Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts
3. GHGs EMISSIONS IN VIETNAM
3.1. GHG emission inventory in 1994
Table 3.1 GHS emission of power-consuming sectors
Sector
CO2
CH4
N2
O
NOX
CO
NM
VOC
SO2
Power generation
411
5.07
0.10
9
0.0
45
11.7
59
0.836
0.24
6
2.97
9
Industry and construction
767
1.17
0.43
3
0.0
81
22.0
61
5.199
0.93
1
5.35
9
Transport
363
4.43
0.46
5
0.0
43
35.8
22
158.7
24
30.3
42
1.36
5
Services/ Commerce
197
4.69
0.24
2
0.0
22
2.42
1
19.19
8
1.96
4
1.11
8
Domestic use
180
6.04
118.
777
1.5
45
40.0
11
1931.
933
231.
216
286.
69
Agro-forestry and fishery
887.
73
0.09
8
0.0
07
14.5
37
12.35
5
2.44
6
0.51
1
Others
149
0.87
0.38
5
0.0
13
2.15
5
1.59
0.22
2
0.81
2
Total
215
80.0
120.
589
1.7
56
128.
763
2129.
836
267.
367
298.
84
3.2 GHG emission inventory in 1998

Table 3.2 Emission of CH4 from exploitation activities (thousand tones)
Exploitation activities
Emission
Underground coal mine
37,362
Surface coal mine
2,387
Oil exploitation
0.748
Gas exploitation
4,565
Gas leakage
1,702
Total
46,764
3.3 Projected emission for 2010 - 2028

Table 3.3 GHG emission from industrial production 1994 (thousand tones).
Industrial production
CO2
Cement
2,677.24
Lime production
651.99
Natri carbonate production
0.52
Use of Natri carbonate
2.24
Steel production
475.2
Paper production
NOX
CO
SO2
NMVOC
1,611.18
0.011
0.230
0.861
0.012
0.008
1.076
0.569
Wine and beer
0.136
Food
4.075
Total
3,807.19
0.241
0.861
1,612.266
4.788
4. SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
4.1 Climate Change simulation models in Vietnam
Table 4.1 Simulation models developed based on GHG emission
scenarios
200
0
202
0
204
0
206
0
208
0
210
0
IS 92a
0.1
0.4
0.8
1.0
1.5
2.0
IS 92b
0.1
0.4
0.8
1.0
1.5
2.0
IS 92c
0.1
0.4
0.7
0.8
1.0
1.2
IS 92d
0.1
0.4
0.7
1.0
1.3
1.6
IS 92e
0.1
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.5
IS 92f
0.1
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.4
IS 92a
1
7
16
24
36
49
IS 92b
1
7
16
24
36
49
IS 92c
1
7
15
23
31
38
IS 92d
1
7
15
23
31
42
IS 92e
1
7
17
25
38
55
IS 92f
1
7
17
25
38
54
Year
Increased temperature 00C
Sea level rise (cm)
4.2 Predictions on Climate Change scenarios
 Significantly increased temperature North West, North East, and
Central Highland
 Significantly increased rainfall in rainy season in Northern Central
and Southern Central regions
 Rainfall in dry season:
+ Increased rainfall in Northern Central and
Southern Central regions
+ Both increased and decreased rainfall in
some other regions
 Significant Sea level rise in the second half of 21st century
5. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM
 Water resources:
- Average water flow: - (minus)
- Water flow in dry season: - - Water flow in flood: + +
- Lack of water due to severe droughts
 Agriculture
- Boundary of tropical crops and trees shift to further North
- Boundary of sub-tropical crops and trees is shrunk
- Increased inundation and severe droughts
- Decreased cultivable areas
 Forestry:
- Shrinking mangrove forests
- Boundary of forest of diperocarpacea species move
further to the North
- Drought-tolerant tree species are expanding
- Risks of forest fire and attack by insects increased
 Fishery
- Changes in balneology and aquatic habitats
- Fishery resources are fragmented
- Increased population of tropical fish species
- Increased population of sub- tropical fish species
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Impacts on transport and energy
Impacts on:
Oil exploration facilities in sea
Railways in coastal areas
Power consumption for domestic use
Water flows in rivers and water reservoirs for power generation
Impacts on health
Negative effects on elder’s health
Cardiovascular diseases. tropical diseases…
THANK YOU !