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Potential production of energy wood in
varying thinning and climate scenarios for
Finland
Ashraful Alam
Management of Forest Ecosystem
Faculty of Forest Sciences
University of Joensuu, Finland
EMA: Climate change conference
Budapest, 2009
Faculty of Forest Sciences
Contents
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Background
Objective
Methodology
Key findings
Background 1/2
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The substitution of biomass for fossil fuels in energy
consumption is a measure to mitigate global climate
change.
To meet climate agreement, recently EU set an
ambitious target, where Finland has to increase its
share of renewable energy source in total energy
consumption by 38%.
Finland is one of the leading countries in EU in
using wood-based energy (20% of total consump.).
In 2006, 21 mil. m3 wood was used to generate
energy, of which only 15% was from forest residues
at final cut.
Background 2/2
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Climate change, defined by increase in
temperature, precipitation and CO2, has been
assumed to increase the production potential of
boreal forests in Finland.
Management: expected climate change may bring a
new dimension to current mgt. as it utilises the
opportunity provided by the surrounding
environment.
Research objective
Based on the above context…
The aim of this study was to assess the effect
of management and climate on energy wood
production in Finland
Sima model (Methodology 1/5)
Measurements of
climate parameters
Temperature
conditions
Management
regimes
Temperature and
precipitation
Monthly statistics
Light
conditions
Moisture
conditions
Climate scenarios
Decomposition
Litter, humus and
dead trees
Multipliers
Degree-days, dry-days, availability of
light, water, and nitrogen
Regeneration
Tree population
Species composition, age
and size distribution, growth
rate of different species
Potential growth
Different tree
Mortality
Carbon dioxide
concentration at the
atmosphere
Materials (Methodology 2/5)
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Finnish 9th NFI data (2003)
Total 2816 permanent sample
plots for the whole of Finland
(south: 1855; north: 961)
FMI - Climatic data
Current climate (1971-2000)
Changing climate in 3 periods
2010-2039; 2040-2069; 2070-2099
A2 scenario
Summer
Winter
Temperature
▲4˚c
▲7˚c
Precipitation
10%
30%
CO2
Nearly double (840ppm)
Mgt. scenarios (Methodology 3/5)
Principles of thinning in Finland
Basal area (m2 ha-1)
Thinning threshold
Just before thinning
Remaining basal area
Just after thinning
Dominant height (m)
Mgt. scenarios (Methodology 4/5)
Basal area (m2ha-1)
Thinning threshold
15%
Remaining basal area
Basal area (m2ha-1 )
Dominant height (m)
Thinning threshold
30%
Remaining basal area
30%
Dominant height (m)
Analysis (Methodology 5/5)
Thinning
regimes
Climate effect
Climate
scenarios
Thinning effect
Output under current
climate in three periods
Output under changing
climate in three periods
2010-2039
% 2010-2039
2040-2069
% 2040-2069
2070-2099
% 2070-2099
Output under current
thinning in three periods
Output under varying
thinnings in three periods
2010-2039
% 2010-2039
2040-2069
% 2040-2069
2070-2099
% 2070-2099
Calculations
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Growth (m3/ha/yr): stem wood production
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Energy wood (Mg/ha/yr):
Energy wood thinning (EWT): small-sized trees
Final cut: tops, branches, stumps & largest roots
Findings (1/4)
South
CU
CC
Growth (m3/ha/yr)
6.2
9.2
EWT
0.04
0.06
Final cut
0.43
0.73
North
CU
CC
Growth (m3/ha/yr)
3.0
5.1
EWT
0.16
0.38
Final cut
0.28
0.45
Energy-wood (Mg/ha/yr)
Energy-wood (Mg/ha/yr)
Findings (2/4)
% changes from current j
Effect of climate
(Southern Finland)
(Northern Finland)
150
150
Growth
Engwood_EWT
Engwood_final cut
120
90
120
90
60
60
30
30
0
0
0%
15%
Thinning regimes
30%
0%
15%
Thinning regimes
30%
Effect of thinning (3/4)
Under c urrent c lim ate
G rowth
%
E .wood_E WT
E .wood_finalc ut
%
120
120
North
S outh
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
0%
15%
30%
80
0%
15%
30%
15%
30%
Under c hang ing c lim ate
120
%
%
120
S outh
North
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
0%
15%
30%
0%
Effect of thinning (4/4)
Annual energy generation from Energy-wood
120
Current climate
49 TWh
Climate change
86 TWh
%
C urrent c limate
C limate c hang e
110
100
90
80
0%
15%
30%
Questions or Comments….?