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The Vehicle(s) in Your Future
Jason Mark
Director, Clean Vehicles Program
The Transportation Challenge
• Oil Dependence
– > $500,000/minute to import oil
– Oil imports = ¼ of last year’s trade deficit
– Passenger vehicle fuel economy at 20 year low
• Air Pollution
– 160 million Americans breathe unhealthy air
– Local “hot spots”
• Climate Change
– Scientific consensus
– US transportation sector emits more heat-trapping gases than
most countries release from all sources together
Climate Change:
Avoiding Dangerous Levels
Global Carbon Budget:
Dangerous Emissions Levels Approaching
Global Cumulative CO2 Emissions
(Gigatonnes Carbon)
2500
2000
1500
1000
550 ppmv stabilization
500
450 ppmv stabilization
"business as
usual"
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Sources: IPCC SRES Emission Scenarios Version 1.1. A1G scenario from MiniCAM. 21st century carbon
budgets for WRE stabilization curves from IPCC 2001 Synthesis Report, Table 6-1.
Technology Solutions
Conventional Vehicles:
Readily available, cost-effective solutions
Source: www.suvsolutions.org
Hybrid Vehicles:
Not all hybrids are created equal
Source: www.hybridcenter.org
Alternative Fuel Vehicles:
Higher risk, higher return
Technology Solutions:
Passenger Vehicle Oil Demand
Passenger Vehicle Fuel Use
(million barrels per day)
16
14
12
10
8
6
Base Case
4
2
0
2000
2005
Source: UCS Calculations
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Technology Solutions:
Passenger Vehicle Oil Demand
Passenger Vehicle Fuel Use
(million barrels per day)
16
14
12
Conventional Vehicles
10
(38 mpg by 2015)
8
6
Remaining Oil
Demand
4
2
0
2000
2005
Source: UCS Calculations
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Technology Solutions:
Passenger Vehicle Oil Demand
Passenger Vehicle Fuel Use
(million barrels per day)
16
14
12
Conventional Vehicles
10
Hybrids
8
(55 mpg by 2030)
6
Remaining Oil
Demand
4
2
0
2000
2005
Source: UCS Calculations
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Technology Solutions:
Passenger Vehicle Oil Demand
Passenger Vehicle Fuel Use
(million barrels per day)
16
14
12
Conventional Vehicles
10
Hybrids
8
Alt. Fuels
6
Remaining Oil
Demand
4
2
0
2000
2005
Source: UCS Calculations
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
US Petroleum Demand:
Cars are the first—but not the only—step
Electricity
2%
Industrial
25%
Residential
4%
Commercial
2%
Other
Transportation
4%
Passenger
Vehicles
44%
Aircraft
6%
Trucks and
Buses
13%
Source: Transportation Energy Data Book. Edition 24. 2002 Data.
Policy Solutions
Signs of Hope